A Profitable System

[wesmip1]

Here is a simple system that makes a profit :

Back any horse that is highest tab number jumping from barrier 15 or higher.

Bets : 326
ROT : $367
Winners : 17

7 months profitable out of 16 months tested. Avg around 20 bets a month

Good Luck.

[wesmip1]

By Highest tab number I mean 8...24 not 1.

[manygeese]

By Highest tab number I mean 8...24 not 1.

wouldn't it be 15 to 24 and what is the logic if say there is 2 or more horses on the minimum weight.

If it works, shouldn't it work for all horses on the minimum weight.

[wesmip1]

probably would work for all those on min weight ...

so I did the sums and found it showed a small loss (5%)

change it to barrier 18 and wider and you get a winning system though showing a 28% profit over 638 bets with an average of 40 bets a month.

and youa re rioght 15 - 24.

[darkydog2002]

Here is an old one.Wonder how it would go today.

Fav

Placed minimum twice in the past 3 in this campaign.

Bottom weight or within 1/2 KG if 2nd or 3rd LS

Bottom weight or within 1 KG if won last start.

Cheers.
darky.

[stugots]

Here is a simple system that makes a profit :

Back any horse that is highest tab number jumping from barrier 15 or higher.

Bets : 326
ROT : $367
Winners : 17

7 months profitable out of 16 months tested. Avg around 20 bets a month

Good Luck.

i take it bet to place shows a loss?

[crash]

Here is another good system based on the fact that more favorites get up in the first three races than the last five at almost any meeting:

Back the SP favorite in the first race and quit the meeting if you win. If the first race fav. loses double your bet for the 2nd race and quit if it wins. If it looses double your bet on the SP fav. for the 3rd. race. If it wins or loses quit the meeting.

Usually a fav. gets up by the 3rd. race at most meetings.

You would have won at all meeting today [Wed.].

[baco60]

How about this one!

Operate ONLY on metropolitan meetings in Sydney or Melbourne on races between 1000 and 1600 metres and with between 7 and 20 starters

THE RULES

1) Eliminate any horse that has not won at least three races.

2) Eliminate any horse that is not in the first or second favourite in the betting with 15 minutes to start time.

3) Eliminate any horse that hasn't started within the last 30 days.

4) Eliminate any horse hasn't won within the last calendar month.

5) Eliminate any horse that wasn't favourite at its last start.

6) Eliminate any horse that didn't win or run a place at its last start and was beaten by more than 2 lengths.

7) Eliminate any horse that didn't win or run a place at its second last start.

[dingoboy]

A bit off track from the original post,.. but

I use this one for months and it seems ok.

Firstly, no race where there is more than 10 runners, minimum of 6.

Maidens are ok but only with some runs under their belt.

Ones selection comes from these parameters,

Reducing form, ie runs should look like this,...652, or 853, or X52

Jockey, must be of top class, ie D.Luciano, scriven, stra, baker, rawiller, williams, Pengelly, O'Hara etc.

Must be nearing the 2 minute before jump paying about 2.2 for the place, ie 6 is for the win or better.

No favourite !

Must be in the top 5 of the rated ie 100, 96,94, 90 with your "tab" ratings.

Back it 1 unit win, 6 place.

OR

if there is two runners, back them both proportionatly, ie 10 units on the longer priced and 20 on the shorter price.

Often this pulls up some treats as i see many of the more consistent Jocs being put onboard something that the market doesnt see as having a real chance, i pickem up every day.

Be careful of the Jokey Stats, i will say that Mr Beadman is a top rider, he is probabally the best, BUT, if one looks closely at the $ returned vs $1 outlay figure per joc, there is some real surprises, just type in jockey s/r or stats into your search macine and take a look,

Cheers Dingo

[Shaun]

Here is another good system based on the fact that more favorites get up in the first three races than the last five at almost any meeting:

Back the SP favorite in the first race and quit the meeting if you win. If the first race fav. loses double your bet for the 2nd race and quit if it wins. If it looses double your bet on the SP fav. for the 3rd. race. If it wins or loses quit the meeting.

Usually a fav. gets up by the 3rd. race at most meetings.

You would have won at all meeting today [Wed.].


Any one able to run a simulation on this one, just using a random check with Qtab shows good results.


EDIT May not have been as good as first thought but has merit.

[crash]

Every time I have used the system, it has had a respectable return rate and few losing days.

[dingoboy]

Where is the most reliable place to find SP favs ?, is it what is normally the fav in the ol paper form guide ? or is it the opening price on say the tab, interesting though, nice and simple system.

Cheers Ding

[Chrome Prince]

Where is the most reliable place to find SP favs ?, is it what is normally the fav in the ol paper form guide ? or is it the opening price on say the tab, interesting though, nice and simple system.
Cheers Ding

This is one problem I encountered with the system when I tested it a few years ago.
On the tote, the favourite can be anything, you just don't know in an open market. Sometimes I ended up backing the wrong horse when the winner came from the favourite after the race had jumped.

Using bookie odds, sometimes the favourite blew like the north wind and a $3.00 bookie favourite ended up at $6 or $7 because of money for something else. This is particularly a trap in those early maiden and first starter races.

The best you can do, is bet as late as possible and risk an early jump, but markets update after they've gone and when you're chasing from 6 losers in a row over two days, it can really do damage not to mention the frustration when you get it wrong and the real McCoy wins with a leg in the air.

One way I overcame this was to bet based on volume rather than starting price. I made up a spreadsheet to track the volume turned over on each horse and went with the volume rather than the price. Volume is sometimes a better guide. Of course, it wasn't always right, but it seemed to be more accurate up to a certain point before they jumped and a pretty good indicator of what was likely to jump favourite.

[Ade]

I'm putting $100 on the first at Pinjarra, then if that doesn't come up $200 on the second at Pinjarra, and if that doesn't come up then $200 on the third at Pinjarra, after which I'll cut my losses.

[crash]

Where is the most reliable place to find SP favs ?, is it what is normally the fav in the ol paper form guide ? or is it the opening price on say the tab, interesting though, nice and simple system.

Cheers Ding

Often there is only one way to back an SP fav. and that is in the last 15 sec. of betting. Sometimes though you will find another runners becomes the SP [after the jump]. That doesn't mean though that the runner you have backed won't win though!

The problem with the system I described is you have to sit in front of the PC to use it and is the reason I use it only now and then.

[Ade]

I'm putting $100 on the first at Pinjarra, then if that doesn't come up $200 on the second at Pinjarra, and if that doesn't come up then $200 on the third at Pinjarra, after which I'll cut my losses.
First fav $3.30 Fiery Flyer * 100 = $330.

I'm out.

This system really works!

Well done guys!

[Dennis G]

Hi Crash and all,

I had a look at this system on all Unitab meetings for the last three saturdays to see how it faired - though finding the fave AFTER the event is simple -

The results were - 34 meetings, 28 collects (I say 'collects' as a couple were minor losses)
Win on first race = 12, 2nd = 7, 3rd = 9, lose = 6

$5 on first, $10 on second, $20 on third - Invest = $690, Return = $915 (32.6% ROI)

Not too bad!!

Den

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, but again you don't have the right horse before they jump in many instances.

As crash says, there's nothing to say the wrong horse won't win, but when bad luck's on your side, that's when it's going to make a big difference.

[AngryPixie]

First fav $3.30 Fiery Flyer * 100 = $330.

I'm out.

This system really works!

Well done guys!Ade, you don't think you were a little impetuous here do you?

Glad it worked out but I wouldn't risk half a grand on the strength of what was written here.

It's way too early to say the system really works.

Pixie

[crash]

Would have won on all meetings today [as yesterday]:

Stab.
Gosford r2 2.10w
Geelong r3 3.40w [only first 3 maidens so first race a fillies and mares race doesn't count]
NZ r1 1.90w
Pinjarra r1 3.30w

[Chrome Prince]

Might be going through a purple patch, but in the longrun, I don't see any light.

Your're chasing a -14.15% loss in those races. With best price or Betfair you'd do o.k., but I wouldn't be doubling up.

[AngryPixie]

Would have won on all meetings today [as yesterday]:

Stab.
Gosford r2 2.10w
Geelong r3 3.40w [only first 3 maidens so first race a fillies and mares race doesn't count]
NZ r1 1.90w
Pinjarra r1 3.30w
Why doesn't the first race count?

You'd have actually done your dough on the first 3 UniTAB fav's at Geelong today.

[crash]

This only seems to work with maiden races and I ignore anything else. Stab is always my favored TAB as overall it always pays the best [unitab the worst].

[crash]

Your're chasing a -14.15% loss in those races. With best price or Betfair you'd do o.k., but I wouldn't be doubling up.

How are you working that out Chrome?

On Stab I've always done OK when I've run with the system, but then again I've never followed the system for a constant period of time. Maybe I was just lucky [a lot].

[Chrome Prince]

crash, I ran the first three races at all meetings @ level stakes picking the actual favourite at close of pool.
(STAB).

I agree with using STAB, which is why I only record S~TAB divvies myself, overall is does pay the best, even with some huge variances on occasion.

I actually went through this a while ago and eventually came up with just using accurate ratings rather than relying on fluctuating prices, but it's a bit too volatile for me at times.

EDITED: Oops there's that "accurate" word again - I mean a strong relationship to final dividend.

[AngryPixie]

UniTAB followers won on the first at the Valley. Dont let them pull your pants down!!

[AngryPixie]

I hate racing. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/frown.gif

[dingoboy]

Thanks CP, thats what i thought,

Cheers Ding