A Mathetically proven way to get a good Value bet

[wesmip1]

A mathematical certainity of getting a good value bet and making a long term profit.

This works and it works well.

Bet for a place any horse that is over $3 and the place is showing at least 60% of the win value .

For example The horse is showing $4 for the win and you can get $2.50.
$2.5/$4 = 62.5%

Bets :1107 (Over 16 months)
Return : 1309
Placings : 677

This is something worth automating and just leaving to run against betfair where the odds are fixed. It won't work against the TAB as the prices can change after the race starts and placing prices tend to tumble if a large bet is placed on them.

If you could clear $100 a bet you would easily be making $1200 a month which is nice pocket money ... Can be used on any race anywhere in the world as well so you could be making at least 3 times this amount a month ( roughly $43K a year )

I say good luck to anyone who wants to do it as If you automate it and it gets a bug at $100 a bet you would not be too happy if you didn't notice it for a few hours ....

I used to do this manually and made a killing with it but it required me to sit in front of the computer which is not something I can do all the time.

Good Luck

[jfc]

A mathematical certainity of getting a good value bet and making a long term profit.

This works and it works well.

Bet for a place any horse that is over $3 and the place is showing at least 60% of the win value .

For example The horse is showing $4 for the win and you can get $2.50.
$2.5/$4 = 62.5%

Bets :1107 (Over 16 months)
Return : 1309
Placings : 677

This is something worth automating and just leaving to run against betfair where the odds are fixed. It won't work against the TAB as the prices can change after the race starts and placing prices tend to tumble if a large bet is placed on them.

If you could clear $100 a bet you would easily be making $1200 a month which is nice pocket money ... Can be used on any race anywhere in the world as well so you could be making at least 3 times this amount a month ( roughly $43K a year )

I say good luck to anyone who wants to do it as If you automate it and it gets a bug at $100 a bet you would not be too happy if you didn't notice it for a few hours ....

I used to do this manually and made a killing with it but it required me to sit in front of the computer which is not something I can do all the time.

Good Luck

wesmip1

Sorry to break this to you, but though your idea has merit it has been well and truly explored and documented since at least the 80s.

And intrepid robots are undoubtedly using the techniques on Betfair around the clock.

Anyone interested in learning more should search both here and google for the keywords:

Harville Ziemba

[Chrome Prince]

Bets :1107 (Over 16 months)
Return : 1309
Placings : 677

I used to do this manually and made a killing with it

I think this proves that wesmip1 has been doing it and succeeding.

I'm am currently doing something much different, but similar in many ways with astounding success.
I never thought that something so simple in practice could be so easy to achieve in realtime.

The fact of the matter is, that there is still so much real mug money around on Betfair, that it is possible to lay horses up to 50% worse than bookies odds and bet on horses 50%+ better prices than bookies and TAB odds.
I keep adjusting the prices up and down, with more and more rake, and the bets just keep getting matched. ;)

And here's the cream on the cake, I've often got bets matched which were 50% better than bookies odds and lays matched 50% worse than bookies odds, all on the same horse.

That's no risk betting - thanks Mark :D

[AngryPixie]

wesmip1

Sorry to break this to you, but though your idea has merit it has been well and truly explored and documented since at least the 80s.

And intrepid robots are undoubtedly using the techniques on Betfair around the clock.

Anyone interested in learning more should search both here and google for the keywords:

Harville Ziemba
Yes jfc your talking of the old "Dr Z system" I think. The basis of this system started with research on US tracks in the 70's from memory. Some modification of their rules may still work but as you say the cat is well and truely out of the bag.

Pixie

[wesmip1]

I know its been around for ages ... but as Chrome Prince said .. there are a lot of mugs and its not too hard to get it... Your not going to get it every race but you are going to get it enough to make a profit.

[wesmip1]

Just to proive this can be done :

Today :

Eagle Farm Race 2: Number 9
You could have got the place for $1.90.

This isn't quite 60% but you got the place ...

and another won was Gosford Race 6 - Number 8
I got 2.80.

Good Luck.

[Chrome Prince]

It doesn't matter how old the method is, or even how bad it went in the past, if you can now secure the right odds, then everything is up for review.

Even though the cat might be out of the bag, there are punters that don't know a cat from a rat ;)

For example, the old maxim that you can't make a profit from backing every favourite, just went out the door. I'm not making a profit on every race, but I'm certainly making a profit backing every favourite (even though I'm laying them as well).

[AngryPixie]

It doesn't matter how old the method is, or even how bad it went in the past, if you can now secure the right odds, then everything is up for review.I fully agree.

There's a much more recent research paper I've read that modified the "Dr Z system" but it still struggled to make a profit. Was written in the US about 4 years ago.

It Even though the cat might be out of the bag, there are punters that don't know a cat from a rat http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gifSo long as I can keep smelling the rats...

Pixie

[Mark]

So Chrome, you've entered the realms of being a "dirty trader".
Good luck to you.

[Shaun]

Good on you chrome, wish i had the time to give it ago might have to take 3 months off to try it full time.

[AngryPixie]

There's a much more recent research paper I've read that modified the "Dr Z system" but it still struggled to make a profit. Was written in the US about 4 years ago.
In case anybody is interested, here's a link to the paper I was refering to

http://irving.vassar.edu/MIEC/GrammOwens.pdf

Happy reading

Pixie

[Chrome Prince]

Good on you chrome, wish i had the time to give it ago might have to take 3 months off to try it full time.

Hi Shaun,

It's not easy to jump in by any means.
I did months and months of research and calculations and there's still room for improvement, and I still make silly mistakes.
However, I now have a bookies point of view and not a punters.
From this perspective, things become clearer in a way.
I would really suggest doing paper trading or trading with the minimum bet before committing hard cash, because you will make mistakes until it becomes second nature.

I really believe anyone can do it though, I'm not any wiser than anyone else, just prepared to do the tedious research.

I am not doing Mark's or Wesmip's system, I'm doing my own, but I suspect that there are many mathematical similarities.

**As a tip: if $10.00 TAB horses win 1 in 11 races for example, returning a 9.09% loss on turnover and you find $11.50 elsewhere about those horses, then you simply have to make a profit, unless you don't allocate your bank sufficiently. This is common knowledge, what isn't common knowledge are the amount of people offering even better than $12.00 and even up to $25.00 (for small amounts).

Here's an example of how I stuffed up badly today:

I was trying to get on with only a few minutes to go with their snail paced servers and rushed to lay a large amount. I had inadvertently layed it on the place market instead of the win market.
It cost me most of the day's profit :(
In my haste to get set, I stuffed up!

[stugots]

**As a tip: if $10.00 TAB horses win 1 in 11 races for example, returning a 9.09% loss on turnover and you find $11.50 elsewhere about those horses, then you simply have to make a profit, unless you don't allocate your bank sufficiently. This is common knowledge, what isn't common knowledge are the amount of people offering even better than $12.00 and even up to $25.00 (for small amounts).


& i guess the opposite also applies if laying short priced favs at a price substantialy less than their tab/bookmaker quote.

couldnt there also be an angle in laying all or most runners in a race that were priced say 20-30% less the tabs?

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, absolutely, but with provisos.

You need to somehow assess the true odds of those horses and know that the ones that get matched are not the one's that lose a much larger percentage longterm.

Providing you have this information, then you're on a winner.

[wesmip1]

In case anybody is interested, here's a link to the paper I was refering to

http://irving.vassar.edu/MIEC/GrammOwens.pdf

Happy reading

Pixie
AngryPixie,

I think you should re-read this report and then look at how betfair works. This report is based on using totes. Betfair is not a tote.

It said the only problem with the technique was that

Bets were made at the last possible moment (save a few instances when the author was shut out) to get the closest approximation of the final odds and expected returns. Unfortunately, on average only 57% of the final pool totals are viewable on the tote board when betting on a race ends. Much of the betting occurs in the last few minutes and posted pool totals change when betting is closed.

This is not how betfair works. Betfair is not a tote. Thus the major issue is resolved instantly.

Good Luck.

[crash]

I think if anyone was trying to lay a whole race field, every horse would have to be equally covered at odds that would give the layer a 100% + book.

A tall order.

[Mark]

A tall order that occurs every day.

[Gerry]

Just browsing this thread and have the following comment;

If a horse is showing $4 for the win i.e. $3 to $1 (your stake), then you would have to be looking for $2.80 the place i.e. $1.80 being 60% of the $3 win price + your $1 stake?

If it is 60% of the Winnings & Stake then you are only looking for $2.40, not $2.50.

Am I missing something?

Gerry

[Chrome Prince]

A tall order that occurs every day.

You don't necessarily have to back the entire field either, you can lock in a lay price and bet price for a few runners which guarantees no risk betting.

It's also not what price a horse opens or closes at, there are extravagant fluctuations that take place in between, which if capitalized upon intelligently guarantee success.

The best scenario for me, is when a certain horse gets backed off the map to end up poor value, because it is so under the odds even though a lot of them win, all my lay bets get matched and longterm these are my best lay earners.

An interesting observation is that the horses that remain solid throughout betting, are the worst profit scenario for me, horses that blow or firm are a good earn.

[AngryPixie]

AngryPixie,

I think you should re-read this report and then look at how betfair works. This report is based on using totes. Betfair is not a tote.

Is that where I've been going wrong all this time...? http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif

I'm fairly sure I said that some modification to the Dr Z system could work. The mod these guys made didn't work too well as they conclude in the paper. Could be Betfair's the key to the new Dr Z. If it's working for you keep going though I wouldn't tell too many people if I were you. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

Have you tried automating your method with the Betfair API? Could make things really work for you.

Pixie

[wesmip1]

Gerry,

Yeah 2.40 would get a profit... 2.50 a better profit.

I usually look for higher than 60% ... ie don't take 60%.

61% is better than 60% ... and will be more profit ... 60% is where the profit cuts down susbstaintially.

[jfc]

Anyone interested in learning more should search both here and google for the keywords:

Harville Ziemba


It's a fair bet that few bothered to conduct this exercise here, as a search for Harville would have easily unearthed some useful information.

Particularly this excellent free Place calculator:

http://us.geocities.com/possum_31415/place.htm

Anyone wishing to learn some Betfair skills might like to try Place Betting using this.

It should provide significantly more action than Wesmip's simple formula.

I note that Betfair finally allows you to resize your windows a bit so it might even be possible to view Win, place and Calculator windows concurrently on the 1 screen.

[crash]

From the same link above:

"Here's an endorsement of the calculator from Jd777 on the Betfair forum:

there's nothing wrong with the calculations - its just that they are too simple / one-dimensional for practical usage".

As is most of what has been said on this thread maybe [for starters, there is no such thing as automated betting software as has been suggested here that could be used to detect correct conditions and place bets for ANY type of betting system]?

The only system[s] that do work mentioned here have not been explained [Mark's method and maybe something Chrome was alluding too] and for probably good reason.

[Chrome Prince]

I can give more insight to what I'm doing, besides revealing exactly step by step.

It's extremely basic and extremely easy, once you have the tools and have done the proper research prior to diving in.

You need an accurate set of ratings or prices that are proven to be accurate and consistent.

You need to know exactly and accurately what advantage or disadvantage you have.

There is also the need to know the bigger the over you get, the more you put on, the more profit you make. This is basic stuff, but there are a lot of ratings that are not that accurate,and so when you see an overlay, they don't necessarily provide profit, because something unmeasurable or unpredictable has been left out!

Just a note, I do not use commercial ratings myself at all, there are other ways to determine the correct market price.

Finally, you have to set your lay and bet prices on Betfair and let them hang, you'll go bananas trying to chase prices manually.

There's a bit more to it, but it gives you an indication, and although it's basic stuff, they key is doing the research prior, so you are confident in the end result.

The reason this is so much better than betting systems etc, is that I can bet in every race, some races no risk (a la Mark) and whether my bets win a whole lot of races or lose a whole lot of races, I win money.

[AngryPixie]

Chrome

Can you always green up? Or are there times when you can't fully cover your position?

Pixie

[wesmip1]

crash,

I can tell you my method works and it makes money consistently. Take today for instance. I am up over $300 following this.

If you reckon I don't get much action take a look at Pinjarra today .. I had 3 horses in the first race and 2 of them placed (8 and 3 the loser was number 1) which returned a profit of 81%. And its not hard getting enough money on either ...

The trick is to keep it simple which the method I follow does.

Here is another method that works :

Back the fav for a place (at fixed odds) if you can get at least 30% higher than is avialable on unitab.

Or

Back the 100 rater if you can get at least a 30% higher win price then the the top tote.

Or

back the fav under $3 if you can get at least 30% higher than the tote.

Or

Back the favs under $2 if you can get 20% higher than the tote or 10% higher for the placing.


Its not hard ... its just common sense and doing the research.

Good Luck.

[wesmip1]

Its easy to work out where to put your price.

If the horse is paying $4 with 2 mins to go then set the place price you want to around $2.50 and hope it gets filled. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't.

who cares as in the long run you know that you are going to be in front.

Good Luck.

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome

Can you always green up? Or are there times when you can't fully cover your position?

Pixie

AngriePixie,

At the level I'm at at the moment, I can always get set for the dollars, the hurdle is getting set at the right price.A lot of races I only get marginally matched, so the profit is minimal, but some lovely races I get matched right up to 100% plus overlay :D This is really where the profit is, but you just don't know in advance what peopole will take, so I have to set it up in increments.

Here's a typical example of my bets

$6.00 @ $2.48
$12.00 @ $2.64
$18.00 @ $2.81
$24.00 @ $2.97
$30.00 @ $3.14
$36.00 @ $3.30
etc
etc...

Most of the time I'll be matched only up to $18.00 but sometimes I've been matched right up to $60.00 plus! (very rare).

The reason the bet size is so small, is that my bank isn't huge at the moment, and I'm outlaying these amounts on bet and lay on multiple horses over all races at once. I want to limit my bank exposure until I have a little more ammo behind me.

(I should add that obviously some prices aren't accepted due to allowed increments, however, I just roundup the price requested).

[crash]

Chrome, I'd like to know what you mean by 'accurate ratings' ?

As you know there is a large swag of unknown facts in horse racing that can't be measured before a race. Only if all facts are known can 'accurate' ratings and therefore accurate PP [or SP for that matter] prices, be produced.
If they could be produced, that would mean you would know the winner of almost every race [have to allow for the odd horse falling over etc.].
30% accurate [SP fav. SR] is as accurate as ANY ratings [or PP prices] get, surely?

If not, I'd love to see a demonstration [not after the race examples] of 'accurate rating' doing their stuff any better and 'accurate' implies a heck of a lot better than the current SP fav. SR.

[Chrome Prince]

crash,

What I mean by accurate ratings, is that they are overall consistent, not just on some races, in some months etc etc. This doesn't necessarily mean that they will be accurate every race either, as long as overall they are accurate.

Whether they show a profit, breakeven or even show a loss does not matter to me, I need to know that accounting for the discrepency that backing overlays and laying underlays will return a consistent profit and that the ratio is accurate of greater overlay & greater overlay plus more money on = more profit.

This is overall.

If the (greater than) scenario is not accurate, I'll make a loss, perhaps a big one.

Just like a bookie, I don't need to win every race, because the overlays are in my favour longterm, as long as the prices I accept are within the boundaries of profit and the overlays and underlays are true overall.

[Mr. Logic]

Only if all facts are known can 'accurate' ratings .... be produced.
If they could be produced, that would mean you would know the winner of almost every race [have to allow for the odd horse falling over etc.

I'm sorry Crash, but this is just illogical.

Is the winner of the Caulfield Cup each year a certainty? If not, why should "accurate" ratings be asked to do the impossible?

By your definition of "accurate", it is impossible for any ratings to be "accurate" no matter how good they are because in order to be "accurate" according to your definition they must defy the laws of logic and consistently select horses to win that are not mathematical certainties to win!!

[crash]

I'm not being illogical Mr Logic. Unless giving correct meaning to the English language is being illogical.

According to my dictionary there is nothing wrong with my definition of the word 'accurate':

"conforming exactly or almost exactly or to a standard or performing with total accuracy."

Chrome obviously meant 'very consistent' ratings [to his personally set standard of acceptance] and not 'very accurate' ratings, according to the explanation in his last post.

Consistent: "Marked by an orderly, logical, aesthetically consistent relation of parts". Seems to fit the bill I think.

[Chrome Prince]

I'm not being illogical Mr Logic. Unless giving correct meaning to the English language is being illogical.

According to my dictionary there is nothing wrong with my definition of the word 'accurate':

"conforming exactly or almost exactly or to a standard or performing with total accuracy."

Chrome obviously meant 'very consistent' ratings [to his personally set standard of acceptance] and not 'very accurate' ratings, according to the explanation in his last post.

Consistent: "Marked by an orderly, logical, aesthetically consistent relation of parts". Seems to fit the bill I think.

crash, I can see why you challenged the statement.

It is more important that the ratings are consistent, but they must be accurate, not in selecting the "right" horse each time, but in assessing the chances of each horse overall - longterm.

The distribution of strike rate and loss on turnover should relate almost exactly to the TAB prices and rankings.

If I knew the final TAB dividend for each horse, I wouldn't need ratings at all ;)

[crash]

Thanks Chrome, I get the picture.

[Chrome Prince]

Here's an example of the way I was talking about accuracy...

Of the last 97 bets on top rated horses...

Overall they returned a loss on turnover
-TAB -6.91%
-Bookie Fixed Odds -5.05%

Where I was able to obtain an overlay on Betfair 42.42% POT

Where they drifted on the tote from the rated price
-TAB -12.67%
-Bookie Fixed Odds -28.56%

Where I was able to obtain an overlay on Betfair 7.17% POT

Where they firmed on the tote from the rated price
-TAB -1.92%
-Bookie Fixed Odds +15.29%

Where I was able to obtain an overlay on Betfair 72.93% POT

And that is just on the bet side.

If you account for the TAB takeout of 14.50% and also the Bookie Fixed Odds takeout of up to 30% (in some cases), things look pretty good.

[wesmip1]

Chrome,

I hate to say this but I think there are not many people that can follow what you are doing except the delect few who are dedicated or who can buy/write a database for themselves on the results and ratings.

I can easily do what you are doing and do it as well as it is quite a profitable way to invest ... Its all about long term averages and the use of getting good value and laying poor value on betfair.

Keep up the good work.... It won't matter that you have released what you are doing because it will be too hard for most people to get the statistics required to be able to follow you.

Good Luck.

[Chrome Prince]

wesmip1,

You're right, as I stated from the outset, it's not hard and I think just about anyone can do it.

I don't have anything of this from a database, or even my own database.
It's all calculated on spreadsheet.

Please don't take it as me being original, I was just trying to demonstrate that with the right knowledge, tools and research, anyone can do it, providing they are working with "accurate" stuff.

The concept is easy, getting it right is the battle.

[newpunter]

Just wondering if anyone has had a go at Automating this system ??

or

would like to have a go !

contact me on newpunter at optusnet dot com dot au

Mike

[crash]

Apparently there is already a lot of betting Bots and various software around that is automated. The problem seems to be reliability.

[newpunter]

there are a lot of bots out there !! I havent found one that has the ability
to do whats needed for this system

does anyone know of one around ??

or someone who could code it for me at a fair price

[trollerboy]

Hello,

when you say the place odds have to be >60% of the win odds, do you mean the decimal odds, which are commonly used at betfair?

[Chrome Prince]

Just re read this thread, are you still using this Wesmip1 with success?

I'm thinking I'll give it a shot using bookies prices as a reference point.
Could be a bit of action to run in conjunction with my ther method.

[wesmip1]

Chrome,

Yeah it still works :)

Using bookie prices would be fine as long as you use the same set of prices everytime you shouldn't have a problem.

Good Luck.

[Chrome Prince]

wesmip1,

I've been Googling all over the joint, so can't remember where I saw it, but there is a guy in the U.S. making his sole income from place price anomolies on Betfair. His contention being that using the Dr Z formula, and looking at the bookmakers win prices, he can identify quickly where the place prices are overs and crunch them hard.

Could be all hot air, but he made a lot of sense.

I wish I could remember the site :(

That's what brought me back to this thread, I remembered it.

[crash]

I keep reading of all these amazing secrets to successful punting thread that 'definitely' work as in this thread when it started [ages ago], yet blow me down, a little bit down the track the big profit makers raking it in have changed track to some other new profit wonder [the most recent seemed to have ended up more soap opera that 'spectacular' sure-fire profit maker].

If these methods are so good, why do these wizard of punting profitability keep jumping from one 'spectacular' profit maker they promote to a new one with the regularity induced by All Bran cereal? :-))

[Chrome Prince]

There are two options when it comes to punting.

You can stick with one method all your life thinking it's the best thing since sliced bread and close you eyes an ears to anything new, different, or that makes you more money on top of what you currently do.

Or you can be open to investigating anything else to add profit.

The choice is individual.

By default, being open to new avenues of generating revenue does not mean that what you're currently doing is not hugely successful.

Ask Gerry Harvey, the Inghams, the Packers, the Fairfax's, the Myers, Coca-Cola Amatil etc etc etc.

[crash]

Yep, I'll ring all those mates of your's up right now and get the good oil.

[Chrome Prince]

Mention my name, you just might be surprised ;)