The winning Factor?

[freowaytogo]

Has anybody here ever looked into the Horse Racing system called The winning Factor?

If, how has it faired, what is the longest losing run, and hence what was the highest bet that had to go down?

I get the impression that if you had a run of 10 losses you would be in **** street!

[kiwigal]

Thier money back guarantee looks dodgy as you could still lose $800 plus what ever you used as betting stakes. Did you pay a close attention to where they are located.............QLD......HMMMMMM..... Ring any bells?

[Bhagwan]

The Winning Factor ,
The factor I beleive is ,
Favorites that won their last start S/R 35% one then uses their stakink plan , to make a profit .
Level stakes loss is approx,-12.5% but they say it makes a quid using their staking plan.

I suggest you use your own staking plan .
Stop & start again each time you strike 5 loosers in a row .

[Mr. Logic]

Be careful freo, because NO STAKING PLAN can turn a level stakes loss into a long term profit.

[Equine Investor]

Mr. Logic is spot on the money here!

Mathematically it is impossible to turn a level stakes loss into a profit. Staking plans will get you out of trouble from time to time, but longterm sooner or later when you have that "big" bet, you will lose.

Increasing the bet merely "hides" the loss temporarily.

For example,

Level Stakes loss.
Your staking plan is 1 unit, 2 units, 3 units, 4 units etc. until you hit a winner.

Overall you might have 10 x 1 unit bets
10 x 2 unit bets
10 x 3 unit bets
8 x 4 unit bets
5 x 5 unit bets
in order to recoup losses.

I can tell you without any shadow of a doubt that because you may have won using this plan a few times, when you finally get to 10 x 5 unit bets,and you are still losing, you will have to keep going to recoup losses and your bank will eventually be wiped out.

Need any further proof?

O.K. Many publications such as PPM (shame on them!) advocate backing favourites willy nilly and increasing the bet to chase losses.
This will work on some days granted. But, eventually you will face a meeting where not one favourite salutes (there have been meetings where not one starting favourite has placed! - rare, but it has happened).
We all know that backing favourites level stakes results in a level stakes loss and therefore, no matter how you stake it, you must lose longterm. If this were not the case, the bookies and the TAB would go broke!

Why?

Because having 10 x 5 unit bets is exactly the same statistically as having 10 x 1 unit bets. Your are still having 10 x 5 unit bets at level stakes and the "system" shows a loss at level stakes. This is just an example but when you lose the 10 x 5 unit bets, you are then staking 10 x 6 unit bets and when that fails, your are giving away all previous profits and now CHASING your starting bank.

So you have lost :
10 x 1 unit bets =10 units
10 x 2 unit bets =20 units
10 x 3 unit bets =30 units
10 x 4 unit bets =40 units
10 x 5 unit bets =50 units

Total Loss 150 units

You are now chasing 150 unit loss with 6 unit bets!

(Note this is just an example of how staking plans can ruin your bank, there are many variations etc).

I hope this helps to understand the mathematics behind it. Many years ago, I too was the victim of friends etc praising the merits of staking plans, until I sat down and did trials over 1,000 races and began to see the logic.

This is not intended to offend any staking plan advocates, and staking plans work well to compound profits if your system shows a profit at level stakes.
Similarly if you are a small hobby or fun punter then staking plans can be fun.

But if you are losing money and can't figure out why - this is your answer. Similarly if you are currently winning using a staking plan and your system shows a level stakes loss - BEWARE They will always get you in the end!
It is a mathematical fact.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-08 12:13 ]</font>

[becareful]

If what Bhagwan has posted is correct (ie. 12.5% LOSS at level stakes) then don't go near it!

Mr Logic & Equine Investor are 100% correct - no Staking Plan can turn a level stakes loss into a profit IN THE LONG RUN. They may show a profit over a few weeks or even a few months but sooner or later you will lose your whole bank.

Mathematically speaking traditional staking plans never change your long term POT - they can increase $profits (and $losses!) by increasing your turnover but your POT stays the same IN THE LONG RUN. Only exception to this is when you are changing your bet size proportionally to the amount of "OVER" you are getting. eg. if true value of a horse is $5 and you can get $6 then you bet 1 unit, if you can get $8 then bet 3 units, etc. As EI mentioned on another thread this can dramatically increase your POT (but only if you can accurately assess the overs situation).

There have been much better "systems" discussed on this forum for free that show better returns than -12.5%. In fact picking horses completely at random only loses about 14.25% in the long run so you're paying a lot of money for less than 2%!

[freowaytogo]

The guarantee cannot be beaten, because they basically go as high as possible with their bets to make sure that they do get a win, eventually.
I actually have the system, but have never bothered to look into it, but I do know that to go 10 races without a winner is not impossible.
If you played the winning Factor and had 10 straight losses, I reckon your next bet would be about 5 grand!
I didn't bother looking any further.

So far as staking plans go, what if you base your staking on the results of a full meeting?
EG. Week 1 - Sat Belmont - You are $4 down, having placed 8 x $1 bets.
Week 2 - Sat Belmont - Now play 8 x $2 bets.
We are only trying to recover a $4 loss, and if we have a good day, we could be way in front.
If are play is positive, drop back down to the $1 bets for week 3.
If not move up to $3 bets.

Do you reckon this is still doomed?

[Equine Investor]

freowaytogo,

Your plan may have merit, but I suggest that you trial it to see what the average dividend AND strike rate are.

If you think it is profitable at level stakes, then indeed your staking plan may work well!

[becareful]

Freowaytogo,

If you do not have a profit at level stakes then the "weekly" plan is still doomed mathematically. It doesn't matter if you treat each race seperately, each meeting seperately or each week seperately the same mathematical rules still apply - the only difference will be the time frame.

If you are only betting for fun (and I am guessing since you are talking about spending $8 per week then that is the main motivation) then by all means give it a go but set a strict limit on your losses otherwise you could end up in trouble. If you are looking to make money then you MUST find a method that returns a profit at level stakes before you even start thinking about staking plans.

[freowaytogo]

I cannot see why winning at level stakes is a 'be all and end all' to a winning formula.
For example, suppose we lose the first 8 bets, then the next 8 bets, we will be down $8 + $16 = $24
Now betting at $3 per race, we lose the first 7 giving us a running loss of $24 + $21 = $45.
Race 8 gives us a win 16-1 giving us a profit of $48.
Take away the $45 previous bets and we have a $3 profit.
Betting at level stakes we would still be at a loss.

My aim isn't to play it as a fun bet, but to play it at nearly every meeting in Australia.

[Equine Investor]

On 2002-09-13 17:06, freowaytogo wrote:
I cannot see why winning at level stakes is a 'be all and end all' to a winning formula.


Winning at LEVEL stakes longterm is the only way for you to win in the long run.

REFER: my previous post in this thread on how the maths add up.

In other words you can stake to win back your losses if in the longrun your system shows a level stakes profit, however, I would not recommend this approach.

Rather compounding winnings might be your best approach.

Anyhow, hope this helps.






<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-13 18:26 ]</font>