OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

Novice Punter

6th February 2007, 05:20 AM

Here is what I call my G6 System.

This is not a selection system nor is it a staking plan.

This is an attempt to devise a method to get through long losing runs.

My idea is to see if an ideal number “divisor” can be found to reduce bank loses for any strike rate.

Everybody has their own way of making their selections and preferences for staking plans.

A problem in common to most punters if not all, is the inevitable long losing run.

A loss recovery plan is part of my idea not everybody’s cuppa, but, each to his own.

There has been lots of work in this area before and I’m sure mine won’t be the last.

Anyway, here’s how it goes.

I use groups of 6 runners to win X and recover loses.

6 losses terminate a group or a win when it happens.

Whatever is lost on a losing group of 6 is left behind.

This cut off is necessary.

Start new group.

The original plan was to find:

1. Ideal number of bets to put together to get through the long losing runs without stretching the bank too much. 6 seems to be the ideal number for this set of results.

2. To see if anything could get near the Level Stakes ideal and to make the same profit.

I ran the 2 ideas side by side on the same sheet.

Would like to pursue this for a while, any help with the science bit, ROI SR LSP etc would be really appreciated.

Does anyone know if there is a spreadsheet around that will do this automatically?

Had a stroke a few years ago and not able for that kind of calc anymore, think the old brain got crisped round the edges that time.

All help, comments and advice are welcome.

Novice Punter

7th February 2007, 10:06 AM

Here is the G 6 Plan in Excel, there are 945 rows.

Novice Punter

Bhagwan

8th February 2007, 02:32 AM

Staking idea
If a winner is struck regardless of price , restart at the beginning.

Try & target runners paying $3.20+ otherwise its a no bet race if the selection is not there. Let it win without your money.

Don't chase the value , let it come to you.

1 1 2 2 3 3 = 12
av O/L $2 per race.
You may notice that this is also the median figure.

Have 9 banks of 12 units = 108
Allows for 54 bets.

Punting aint easy , epecially if one accepts short prices consistantly.

A method of selection that has its good days.

1st & 2nd TAB FAV PLAN
Target the 1st & 2nd TAB Favs at 0 jump time.
These win on average 45% of the time.

The selection of the 2 Favs is the one with the shortest PLACE Div at 0 jump time,
If a draw , No-bet. (This is rare)
Bet it for a Win.

One will find that stuff still changes after that time. Thats OK, its part of the process.

One will find that it works in real time, but not after the event is over.
So going over past results is a waste of time because every thing is then balanced out to reflect the actual , which ends up showing the Fav after the 90 sec loop of time for all the figures from around the country become formatted.

So I repeat, dont wast ones time looking at the actual results after the event, because most times that is not what was actually being shown at the time of selection at 0 jump time .

One will be surprised at some of the value divs struck using this method.

give it a dry run before betting any real money.

Cheers.

Novice Punter

8th February 2007, 05:39 AM

Hi Bhagwan

Thank you for responding to my post.

First off, have to copy your post into word and save it, have to read things a million times these days to get the plan.

Then I will try your staking idea along side level stakes and the 6 idea to see if more profit can be got.

Just at first reading the losses of the 6 plan would be reduced by a fair bit with a higher return also.

I have seen this type of staking in many of the posts on this site, apart from tests on a short run of bets I have never tried it over a long set of results.

I hear what you say about value, one of the rules in my selection plan is, and there are a few, odds on no bet.

Don’t have named selections, just race type and odds etc.

Evens or better is ok with me, its just a medium to, get on, relying on the group of 6 idea to control the out of control situation that can happen when using a recovery type staking plan.

I’m going to get it in the neck for saying that, but I have tried for a long to formulate a plan that was easy to use and suited my way of doing things, and the pocket.

It is a bit aggressive, loss recovery will always is considered so, but it’s a compromise on some of my other ideas.

Thank you for taking the time

Regards

Kevin

Novice Punter

Bhagwan

8th February 2007, 08:16 AM

Hi Novice Punter,
Your Most Welcome.
With the mentioned staking plan, one can target $2.00 horses for the first 3 bets e.g. 1 1 2 , if one must bet them its the last 3 bets that needs the value so show a profit.

An alternatve to the staking idea is to repeat that bet if the odds are not high enough to show a profit.

Either way , there is not much damage done because it is capped at 12 units max , before restarting.

One would have killed it yesterday with that selection idea.

Cheers.

Bhagwan

8th February 2007, 04:56 PM

Hi Novice,
Heres a staking plan you might like to check out against ones past selections
It might work well.

LADDER STAKING PLAN.
These are all geared for a run of 60 races to produce a $2.00+ profit .
One keeps betting up the ladder win ,loose or draw until $2.00 in front , then start from the beginning.
The idea is to start again as soon as $2+ profit of bank is acheived.
e.g. $330 bank , $2+ profit needed before restarting .
If one reaches bet No.60 one does not proceed any further , either start with a new bank or give up punting forever.

e.g. 111111 222222 333333 444444 555555 ect.stopping at
10 10 10 10 10 10 keep going along the ladder, regardless of result, until it is forced into profit

1x6 example.
e.g. 1L,1L,1L, 1Xw2.00, 1L,1L,2L, 2Xw2.50, 2L, 2Xw3.00, 2L,2L, 3Xw3.90
O/L 21.00
Ret 24.70
Prof +$3.70 = +18% POT

Level stakes at $2.00 a bet
O/L 26.00
Ret 22.80
Loss -3.20 = -14% LOT

$-- Lots of 6
1--6
2--6
3--6
4--6
5--6
6--6
7--6
8--6
9--6
10--6
Bank needed $330
Last bet No.60 needed odds to break even 33/1
or several winners totaling these odds at the end process.

Cheers.

Novice Punter

8th February 2007, 10:21 PM

Hi Bhagwan

Plenty of food for thought there.

Very informative and encouraging, appreciated.

I will try your first plan over the excel sheet first, will take a few days.

I think its going to be hard to come up with a staking plan to suit average odds over 40 bets of approximately 15/8, my selections are going to be short priced and that cant be avoided.

Its the simplest selection plan that im able to work “on the run”.

There are not too many selections each day and this helps too, of course this time of year on this side of our planet the weather takes its toll.

Will get back soon with result of test.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Novice Punter

9th February 2007, 09:12 AM

Hi Bhagwan

Quicker than I thought.

Here is the updated sheet, along the 112233 plan I have also put in an idea I was trying last year.

What is the easiest way to calculate ROI / SR / POT ETC, not things I know much about.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Bhagwan

10th February 2007, 10:13 AM

Hi Novice,
This is the way I do it .

Net Profit calculation
(also known as P/L)
Write down the total Gross Returns (this means the total Ret including the bet amnt before net profit is calculated) e.g. $240

Write down the total Outlays e.g. $200

Take one away from the other e.g. $240-200= +$40 Net Profit & that will be ones P/L (profit /loss)

POT calculation.
Divide the above Net Profit figure into the total Outlay figure
e.g. +40/200 = 20% POT (profit on turnover)

If it was a Loss say -10/200 = -5% LOT (loss on turnover)

It makes it easy to compare statergys once everything is converted to percentages.

SR calculation
Divide the number of winners by the total number of bets
e.g. 50 wins / 167 bets = 30% SR (strike rate)

ROI calculation
(Gross Return on Investment) in this case it is the Gross Ret
e.g. $240 / 200 = 120% ROI (before net is caculated).
Take away 120% -100% = 20% POT (net profit)

Personally I dont use ROI calculation, I have shown it here because you requested it.

I use SR percentages & POT percentages only.

Average Dividend is caculated by dividing the No. of winners into the Gross $ Ret amount e.g. 50 wins / $240 = $4.80 av div.

Once you have worked out your SR, I will be able to give you an approximation of what the longest run of outs one should encounter at some stage & it will happen , no matter how good a plan is.
We need to know this, so we can create a stratergy in advance so when it happens , we wont be caught off guard.

Cheers.

Novice Punter

10th February 2007, 11:19 AM

Hi Bhagwan

Thanks for that very detailed explanation.

I always thought the day would come when I would regret all the time spent fishing instead of going to school, at my age now it was a safe assumption but today is that day.

Awesome stuff there, a bit complicated for me but I can get someone to go through it with me.

Will get back soon.

Kevin

Novice Punter

shoto

10th February 2007, 10:21 PM

Very kind of you to take the time to help out another like that, Bhagwan. Good on you!

crash

11th February 2007, 06:54 AM

The old progressive staking plan Chestnut [turning lead into gold]. Just remember the maths: If your selection method makes a loss betting flat stakes, it'll make an even bigger loss with ANY progressive staking plan because they all increase both profit AND loss.

It's better to try to make a profit betting flat stakes with your selection process first before considering any progressive staking plan. If that fails, try to improve your selection method rather than lose even more money on staking plan 'Alchemy'.

-----------------------------------
No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable enterprise... -- Probability and Measure (page 94, second edition) by Patrick Billingsley

-----------------------------------
'The number of 'guaranteed' betting (staking) systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamcis'.

-- The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein
---------------------------------

Novice Punter

11th February 2007, 07:46 AM

Hi shoto,

May I say, if the members of this forum are a fair representation of Australian Society then I really would love to live there, the members here have been very helpful and courteous, believe me I know the difference having posted my ideas in other forums.

There is an old saying class will always come out on top.

I totally agree with you about Bhagwan, and if he doesn’t mind me saying, I believe he is a highly respected and valued member of this community.

I have read most of his posts and would recommend that beginners and improvers like myself to do the same.

I would like nothing better than talk racing all day with you guys and have a few long necks in the cooler, sounds like heaven to me.

Regards to All

Kevin

Novice Punter

Novice Punter

11th February 2007, 08:00 AM

Hi crash,

Thank you for them words of wisdom, they can never be said often enough or loud enough.

I will be posting the results of my system/plan soon and with that information hopefully we can improve on things.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Chrome Prince

11th February 2007, 08:10 AM

I agree entirely with Crash on this one.

If the goal is to turn a negative expectation into a positive outcome, then a staking plan will merely temporarily "hide" your losses. This can be dangerous to the punter who is unaware of this fact and has false confidence in the future outcome of his strategy.

A staking plan will "eventually" magnify an existing profit or loss.

However, if the goal is to get through a long run of losses, knowing that the betting method is sound, then there is no better method than level stakes in my opinion.

Concentrating on the strategy itself rather than the amount staked will reap far greater rewards in the longrun. If a long run of losses occurs, it is likely that the profit from the strategy comes from one or two longshots overall and the likelihood of this repeating before you bust your bank is minimal and risky, therefore throwing more money at such a plan on false hope is dangerous play.

Bhagwan

11th February 2007, 08:32 AM

Thanks Shoto,
For your kind words.

Cheers.

Novice Punter

11th February 2007, 08:36 AM

Hi Chrome Prince,

Thank you for your comment takes a bit of reading to see the point and I totally agree with you.

I personally don’t believe Level Stakes is a realistic betting system unless your bank is in the thousands, but I do agree that it’s the yardstick by which all other plans have to be measured.

Will be posting stats for my plan and with levels in a while, hope we can talk more then.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Novice Punter

11th February 2007, 08:50 AM

Hi Bhagwan

Here goes the moment of truth, I have never gone into this kind of detail before.

Not sure what it all means yet but thanks to you I can now do these calculations myself.

Level Stakes

POT
5.69%

SR
38.77%

ROI
105.69%

AV Div
6.35

G 6 Plan

POT
5.7828%

SR
38.771

ROI
105.78

Av Div
2.72839

Hope these make sense.

Kevin

Novice Punter

crash

11th February 2007, 08:51 AM

The Ten Commandments of Gambling
---------------------------------------------------

1. Thou shalt honor thy gambling debts.

2. Thou shalt expect to lose.

3. Thou shalt trust the odds, not hunches.

4. Thou shalt not over-bet thy bankroll.

5. Thou shalt not believe in betting systems.

6. Thou shalt not hedge thy bets.

7. Thou shalt covet good rules.

8. Thou shalt not make side bets.

9. Thou shalt have good gambling etiquette.

10. Thou shalt tip [ the waiter :-) ].

See 'The Wizard of Odds' regarding staking plans etc.
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

crash

11th February 2007, 08:58 AM

Novice Punter,
Your figures will make more sense if we know how many bets you are talking about [?]

Bhagwan

11th February 2007, 09:24 AM

Hi Novice,
Heres another angle one may like to check out.

Its called betting to price & is considered by many as a better way to place ones bets as opposed to level stakes betting.

The idea is to have a base takeout amount e.g. $10, one then divides the dividend into that amount.
e.g. $10/$3.20 = $3.00 bet
e.g. $10/2.10 = $5.00 bet

It is said that it keeps the bets in perspective based on the fact more shorter pricess horse win than longer priced horses.

An alternative to this is that one increases the base amount by 10% after each loss.
e.g. 10 11 12 13 14 15 ect
One repeats the base takeout amount if a winner is struck but still not in profit.

Maybe its an idea not to go past 15 so as to fit in with your G6 stratergy.

Cheers.

Novice Punter

11th February 2007, 09:25 AM

Sorry Crash

944 Total Bets

366 Win

Kevin

Novice Punter

crash

11th February 2007, 09:43 AM

Kevin, If you have won over that No. of bets, then over that number of bets you managed to have the odds [on average over the number of bets] in your favour through either luck or masterful selections of actual overlays. No other reason.

For anyone interested, they might like to have a read.

See: 'Progression Betting'
and....
'Mathematical Proof That Progressions Cannot Overcome Expectation' [f you have the head for the maths involved].

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/progress.htm

Novice Punter

11th February 2007, 10:42 AM

Hi Crash,

Thanks for your comment, but like you said you need the head for that kind of reading.

Had a quick look, and no disrespect to yourself, it’s the usual slating of any type of betting other than Level Staking, proven by mathematicians and fair play to them, but as we know betting is not a very high scientific act and punters are not mathematicians no disrespect intended to them/us.

So therefore their findings have no relevance to any punter who does not believe in flat betting, in my opinion.

I respect peoples rights to be different and to write about it even if it was a hundred years ago, but as I said before each to his own.

With regard to luck or masterful selections, the selections pick themselves, I don’t know what they will be until just before the off.

With Respect

Kevin

Novice Punter

AngryPixie

11th February 2007, 10:52 AM

Novice

Just done a quick Chi-test on the figures you supplied. If they are accurate I'd be dropping the "Novice" tag if I was you. On those figures there is virtually no chance that your success is due to luck. In my experience this is very, very unusual in gambling.

Keen to see some of your selections posted pre-race

Pixie.

crash

11th February 2007, 11:20 AM

Novice

Keen to see some of your selections posted pre-race

Pixie.

Me too !
-------------------------

Kevin,

The laws maths work regardless whether we understand them. If they can be ignored [oh, and they often are], that won't change the outcomes. 2+2 = 4 regardless and staking systems don't work either. There are many possible staking paths [millions of variations] but if you have a 2% disadvantage, eventually you will make 2% loss regardless. Vi-a-vis applies of course too.

If someone could get around the laws of maths [put them aside or say 'I don't understand them so they don't apply to me'] and make progressive staking somehow turn a loss at flat stake betting into a profit, every Casino in the World would have went broke long ago!

Novice Punter

11th February 2007, 11:24 AM

Hi AngryPixie,

Thank you for them words of encouragement, too old to be anything other than a novice now but thanks for the thought.

Lots of hard work and patience makes your luck, im sure you will agree.

With regard to selections I am only certain there is one just before the off, the system and rules are based on off prices and other conditions.

Not much use for posting I know.

I have heard of Chi-test before somewhere but don’t know how it is used.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Novice Punter

11th February 2007, 11:29 AM

Hi Crash,

With respect you are still not allowing for the ingenuity of the punter.

Kevin

Novice Punter

crash

11th February 2007, 11:49 AM

Well Kevin, if you have a progressive staking system that can turn loss into profit, you are wasting your talents in Horse Racing. Hit the Casino's and clean up big time [the house take is less than Horse Racing on most games and there is an almost bottomless pit of money to be won]!

AngryPixie

11th February 2007, 01:38 PM

I have heard of Chi-test before somewhere but don’t know how it is used.
Google for "matharchie". 0dd5 are you'll find it.

Put the resulting probability into Excel like this

=1-CHIDIST(probability,1)

You should end with a figure between 0 and 100%. Generally anything over 95% is considered significant. That is only 5% of the result can be attributed to luck.

You can naturally do the whole thing in Excel but the page you should turn up offers a very neat explanation if your interested in learning without all the stats mumbo-jumbo.

I used 148.88 as your expected winners given your level stakes AvSP of 6.35. Your second SP figure of 2.72839 would probably have been more realistic. What you really need is the sum of all the chances over the series of bets. The figure I used above does give you a ludicrous advantage of 146%.

Pixie

Top Rank

11th February 2007, 02:18 PM

Hi all, haven't posted for a long time but have been reading with interest this thread as I think it highlights the different thoughts on staking (most important).

I actually wanted to hear what Bhagwan had to say about the "nay sayers" of progression staking as he appears to be the king of the staking plans.

Secondly Bhagwan do you think it is possible for a progression plan to be formulated for a method where your selections are striking around 12-13% but paying $8.00 on average. Level stakes about even, but a progression plan with that low a strike rate would run up a big run of outs.

While we are quoting texts, "There is no such thing as a successful level stake gambling system." - The Elements of Throughbred Racing, Joseph Keating.

So who is right? One thing is for sure - Winners are grinners no matter what the method or plan.

AngryPixie

11th February 2007, 03:15 PM

Put the resulting probability into Excel like this

=1-CHIDIST(probability,1)

You should end with a figure between 0 and 100%. Sorry, of course you'll only get a figure between 0 and 100% if you format the cell as a percentage. Otherwise you get a number between 0 and 1. Same diff though. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/redface.gifops:

Chrome Prince

11th February 2007, 04:58 PM

While we are quoting texts, "There is no such thing as a successful level stake gambling system." - The Elements of Throughbred Racing, Joseph Keating.

Mr Keating either

a) Hadn't been able to restrain himself from loss chasing
b) Never found a system.
c) Never asked around.

It's being done everyday.

OR

He meant that a gambling system is when the overall odds are against you - negative POT

crash

11th February 2007, 05:06 PM

Top Rank,

Nowhere does Bhagwan say progressive staking will turn losing flat stakes betting into a winning betting system. If your a winning punter, well various progressive staking systems offer some variety. That said, there are those that believe progressive staking will do what's mathematically impossible: turn bad odds into good odds, because that's what they truly WANT to believe and ************ the maths [I do that with my bank balance ... I believe it's a $million, but my bank manager just can't see past the reality of the maths]!

These people are of the same ilk that belong to the Flat Earth Society, or who jump off tall buildings convinced they can fly [because not understanding the laws of gravity, they believe they don't apply to them].

Top Rank

11th February 2007, 06:12 PM

Thanks for the tip champ.

odericko

11th February 2007, 06:18 PM

use bet fair u losers

Top Rank

11th February 2007, 06:19 PM

Novice Punter

11th February 2007, 08:29 PM

Hi AngryPixie,

Certainly have an other look there now that I have an idea of what its about, found that site a while ago and seen all them numbers and things, I clicked that little x, you know the one at top right.

Seriously though, I am concerned about “The figure I used above does give you a ludicrous advantage of 146%”. I have no doubt that your analysis of the figures supplied is correct, Im just worried that I may made an error in my calculations. Have to double check.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Novice Punter

11th February 2007, 08:40 PM

Hi All,

Really interesting the different ideas being discussed here, I would like to ask a general question about staking.

We all know and understand Level Stakes, just put 1 Point on every selection never ending.

My question is this:

Define the difference between Progressive Staking a Stake Recovery.

Is there a difference or not ?.

Kevin

Novice Punter

AngryPixie

12th February 2007, 12:20 AM

Seriously though, I am concerned about “The figure I used above does give you a ludicrous advantage of 146%”. I have no doubt that your analysis of the figures supplied is correct, Im just worried that I may made an error in my calculations. Have to double check.
I've had a look at the latest Excel shreadsheet you attached. It was a bit peculiar but using the figures you've supplied I get the following:

Observed
===
Bets 944
Wins 386
S/R 40.88%

Expected
===
Bets 944
Wins 348.74
S/R 36.94%

This gives you a Yate's Corrected Chi score of 6.14, which converts to around a 98.68% chance that your performance is due to some factor other than luck. Given your high number of bets I'd say this was significant.

Your advantage is 10.84%. Your level stakes ROI is 6.15%. Your average SP for all bets is 2.86 (34.96%)

I'll send you the bill. Greenbacks only thanks

Pixie

PS: How did you do that spreadsheet? Not by hand I hope. I couldn't find one formula in it.

crash

12th February 2007, 05:35 AM

Another QUOTE:

Ladder staking plans can turn a negative level stakes result into a positive. Even if there is a -30% LOT. Bhagwan 23rd Sept. 2006 at 11.37am in the thread headed Ladder Staking Plans.

Food for thought.

Bagman,
If the above quote is true and not out of context, you either meant over a lucky short period [only], or it's time for you to go back to punting school [?]

Bhagwan

12th February 2007, 07:09 AM

Hi Crash,
Thanks for your input.

Staking plans like any other thing, relies on the ability to hit winners.

If they all get up in the first half & non at the end of the process , no plan will save you except maybe level stakes, in that, one may lose less money.

If one wishes to make a profit every year.
Get your first bank increase at the beginning of the year at level stakes, then stop & wait for next year to come around. There you go , thats how one can make a profit every year. (Just joking)

That is why when doing any sort of progressional, it is important to have a cut off point.
With the ladder staking plan , it's cut off is at bet No.60
That is 60 losers in a row before the bank is bust .

If one does not have a cut off point , one will be created for you .
That is , you will have run out of money.

I keep hearing the same old mantra that a progressional will not work if it cant break even at level stakes.

Well, I'm sorry, but I have to disagree .
With the right plan for the process , it can be done.

I also use a cut off rule if I have a certain No. of outs in a row, before restarting where I left off.

Every selection plan has a run of outs , no matter how good it has proved itself in the past, that is why it is important to try & stop after a certain amount of outs.
Try not to beat oneself up too much when that juicy paying winner gets up without the bet being on , if the plan is any good , there should be more to come in the future.

The idea of stopping & restarting helps to try & address the dredded run of outs issiue.
It may not feel it works for you, but it does give one the feeling that one has some contol over what is happening with their betting when in the midst of the dredded horror run of outs .

I have several staking plans that all show a profit with a level stakes loss, up to -30% LOT & they still recover to make a profit.

The Ladder Staking plan is the simplest & I surgest punters may like to give it a work out on paper first before using any real money, to see if its for them or not.
Remember to restart once in profit.

Staking plans have put me miles in front.
Including betting 2 horses a race , which many say cant be done, "you are betting against yourself" "its impossible!," "mathematically it just cant be done!," "I cant do it, so therefore no one else can."

I have to say, if I can do it , therefore, someone else must also have the same ability, if not more .

But it does require discipline, like anything else, when it comes to real money.
When the real money goes on , a different reality suddenly presents itself.
e.g. Fear
That is why it is so important to start off small & build up from there.

Cheers.

crash

12th February 2007, 09:00 AM

Sorry Bagman, I can't counter 'Special Pleading' arguments for Progressive Staking that avoids all unfavorable evidence [especially any maths]. Life's just too short!

Can a horse be made to run faster by a punter altering their staking method? With a bit of Special Pleading reasoning, well why not?

I think you might fit nicely as a betting system Votary so well described below by Epstein:-)

"The number of 'guaranteed' betting (staking) systems, the proliferation of myths and fallacies concerning such systems, and the countless people believing, propagating, venerating, protecting, and swearing by such systems are legion. Betting systems constitute one of the oldest delusions of gambling history. Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion machines, butting their heads against the second law of thermodynamics".

-- The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic (page 53) by Richard A. Epstein. [2nd reprint 2003]

-------------------------------------------

Bhagwan

12th February 2007, 10:27 AM

Hi Top Rank.
In responce to your SR of 12-13% SR av $8.00 = break even , not bad.

With a 12.5% SR , one has got to expect a run of outs of 46 in a row at some time, before the next winner gets up . It will happen , its only a question of when.
With a 1% chance of 60 outs in a row.

The median figure is 30
This means that one should strike the majority of the wins within 30 bets.

So what ever plan one wishes to introduce , it has to be framed around these figures.

It's maybe an idea to stop & restart again after 31 outs in a row.
Wait until a winner gets up before recommencing where one left off .
This is not to say that one may encounter another 31+ outs in a row, so be aware of this.
Then continue where one left off.

We are saying that there will be approx 12.5 winners in every 100 bets at approx $8.00 av div.

We double the Av Div figure in this case $8 x 2 = 16
16 is how many lots of $1 bets we make before going up to the next stage in the Ladder. If not in profit before hand.

Always start afresh once in front , no matter how small.

With a 1% chance of 60 outs in a row
With the possability of a further long run of outs in a row after that winner is struck.
I have factored all of this in.

The ladder plan maybe of interest based on the above stats.

$1 x 16 (No of bets)
$2 x 16
$3 x 16
$4 x 16
$5 x 16
$6 x 16
$7 x 16
$8 x 16
$9 x 16
$10 x 16
$11 x 16
$12 x 16

Bank $1248

192 bets, we hope to strike 24 winners here at 12.5% SR for the sequence to be successful.

$1248 Bank needed.
We have taken into account that one may have a 1% possability of
60 outs x 3 = 180

This means one will need to strike equivalent odds of approx half of what is required at level stakes to break even over the sequence of 192 bets.

Can you do it?

Now try doing that with level stakes.

Restart once in front.
We have to have large amounts like this, because of the average number of outs between wins.

The idea is to keep going up the ladder, win lose or draw, until one is in front, then start again.
We are crushing the figures into our favor.

Run the staking plan over your past results to get a feel if its for you or not , but I feel you will find that it will force it into profit.

The general feeling out there with any progression, is that it is usually best to try & find a method that has a SR of 24%+ if using any progressive type staking, otherwise, one is in for a hard grind at the wheel .
It also takes discipline because what happens , we will miss bets when we need them, especially after 25 outs, so that phone had better not ring at the wrong time because thats when they tend to get up.

So please be aware, it will happen to the best of us. So try not to kick the ****** too hard.

Cheers.

Bhagwan

12th February 2007, 10:28 AM

Hi Novice,
I think there maybe a small clerical error with one of those figures which says av div is approx $6
Going on the other figures with it, SR 38.77% / ROI 105.78 =
I think you ment it to read read $2.72 Av Div

Expected run of outs is 14 in a row.
Median run of outs is 10, this is to say the majority of the wins will be within 10 bets
With a 1% chance of 21 outs in a row.
20 x 3 = 60 Bets to be allocated to the selection plan.

The ladder staking plan should work a treat .
Av Div $2.72 x 2 = 5.44 (lots of bets)
$1 x 5 (lots of bets)
$2 x 5
$3 x 5
ect up to $12 x 5 .
Then stop if still not in profit. Review ones selection process.

Stop at any stage one is in profit by 2+ units.

Keep going up the ladder, win lose or draw until in front. This is important.
Then start again.
What we are doing is forcing the given criteria into profit.

Bank needed $390
Allows for 60 bets within the sequence to be successfull.
One needs to strike half of the equivalent odds of level stakes betting to break even.

Try it out over your previouse results.
It should show a profit greater than what you are currently doing.
Let us know how you go.

The 5% POT is a good result at level stakes.
Well done

Cheers.

Bhagwan

12th February 2007, 12:14 PM

Well Crash , each to their own .

There is nothing wrong with level stakes betting.
But there is a lot wrong with most progressionals if the SR falls away outside the expected parameters, & there is not a contingincy in place when it happens.

Or, its a staking plan not designed for those expected parameters.
This is where all the damage is done.

One must STOP betting if it goes outside the given parameters that have been factored into the expectation.

Of course, one will loose if one keeps going outside the know factors.
Thats why we say to STOP STOP STOP STOOOOOP! if & when it raises its head.
Then start again once the anomilies have cleared.
Theres no guarantee that these anomilies wont present themselves again after a win or two.

We Stop if it goes past the Median figure of the selection plans expected SR .

That's why our learned friends have a field day with the logic used because they are right, based on the parameters they are using .
That is , betting onwards not stopping until the wheels fall off. "there you go, I told you so, nah,nah,naah na" "I proved it with my hard to understand sums"

They claim its all the same no matter how one chooses to twist it around.

Do you think you could ask him for me to devise a plan based on a expectation of say a minus -20%.?

I strongly feel they would say straight out "it cant be done" & certain people will beleive them or "one needs a million dollars , no one would take the bets."

************ scientists said that it would take the power of the Sun to split a Hydogen atom , therefore would destroy Earth if it were attempted.

Doctors around the world said that an Ulcer can not be treated as a virus, because it is not a virus. now it is, after much derision.
This was only 10 years ago.

Experts said that colour images could not be sent through copper wire via the internet ,because its mathematically impossible, now there is that, plus full Television imagry & sound..
That was less than 10 years ago.

Experts in Arthritis get paid big money & they dont know how to quire it.
Apply that same logic to a Motor Mechanic & see if he gets paid.

Mathemeticians said the TAB divs would be greater if they were combined.
How come it is'nt.

Scientists said in their day that man would need oxygen masks if one travelled faster than 60mph because logic tells them so.

What I propose , is that we invite Mr. Epstein & his thermodynamics over on a Friday night after synagog, that is if the thermodynamics say its possible , so as we can go over the figures so he can show me where I am going wrong with his theory.

Maybe if we try & bend it to his logic , I should loss & he will be right.

Then he, his thermodynamics & his theory will be happy.

Dont forget it is still only a theory , just like all the experts mentioned above & therefore still open for debate.

Thermodynamiscs is something to do with heat from friction, what if you ran the same process using possitive & negative pollarity so that there is minimal touching parts to create the same process , would you end up with different heat.
Or is that impossible.?

Cheers.

AngryPixie

12th February 2007, 12:48 PM

I think there maybe a small clerical error with one of those figures which says av div is approx $6
Going on the other figures with it, SR 38.77% / ROI 105.78 =
I think you ment it to read read $2.72 Av Div
Bhaggy

I think you'll find that these numbers are a bit "iffy" too. Had a closer look at his/her spreadsheet and posted some updated figures earlier.

I'm wondering about the "novice" tag. I've no reason to doubt the claims but the novice thing doesn't really ring true when clearly he/she is not.

Pixie

AngryPixie

12th February 2007, 01:22 PM

What I propose , is that we invite Mr. Epstein & his thermodynamics over on a Friday night after synagog...
Hey careful here!

crash

12th February 2007, 03:43 PM

Bagman,
Boy you do go on [and on] with such waffle.

Even a progression of 1/1.5 [STOP! Start again] is a progression. The point of [Professor] Epstein and others, is: NO [not any] progression will turn a flat stakes loss into a profit and you go so far as to say your ladder progression will turn a -30% LOT into profit!
Like I said, Special Pleading rhetoric.

How about explaining why you haven't cleaned out every Casino in the World then, or does your progression system only work with Horse racing? Well why is that [oh boy, interesting reading for sure]? :-)

Perhaps you should lighten up on whatever you drink after Friday night Sybnagog...!

Top Rank

12th February 2007, 04:43 PM

Bhagwan, thanks for your replies, although if I was to tell the truth I already knew the answers, I am really just cmparing notes with you. Hope that is OK.

If it is OK can you tell your staking for the two horses in a race, I would understand, after my admission, if you say no.

There are many doubters but I for one know that Bhagwan is so close too spot on, (in his own way, because there is more than one way to skin a cat) that we may well have crossed paths.

17years of winning and grinning is proof enough.
Crash it is OK to believe what you want, but is there just the slightest possibility at the back of your mind that we could be right. I don't say I can turn around 30% loss but 10% and under, yes sirree.

Anyway best of luck to you all.

baco60

12th February 2007, 08:03 PM

Crash,
The name speaks for it self, Collide, Run into, Break down, Stop working,
and collapse. That sums it up about your characteristic.
It cost nothing to be kind.
Why in the hell would you knock some one that contributed so many positives
to this forum over the years, more then you ever will.
Bhagwan helped so many new comers in this forum with his brilliant ideas, much more then you ever will.
Why would you disrespect his forum name? Calling him Bagman, what do you achieve with it, or are you that narrow minded that you can see the difference between
Bhagwan and Bagman. What is the point?
Why don’t you grow up, probably to late for you? If you can’t help people,
keep your lips shut, that would be the best for the forum.
With you attitude you discourage people to help others.
I learned from Bhagwan more then I will ever learn from you, you useless contributor.

Novice Punter

12th February 2007, 10:00 PM

Hi AngryPixie,

Thank you for the break down and taking the time to do it, appreciated.

I don’t really understand the maths enough to know what it all means, do understand some of them, but overall I think the selections seem ok.

Have to go through my racing papers for last year again to try 2 new filters and have a look at a different race type that I have been watching over the past few weeks, may add if it measures up.

With regard to my excelsheet, all by hand, what are formulas. LOL

Its an improvement from pen and A4, the way I started 1976, and that was just horse racing.

You mentioned “It was a bit peculiar” can I ask in what way, there are 4 Staking Plans on the sheet and maybe more to come, must leave my calculator in the window for a while.

Kevin

Novice Punter

AngryPixie

12th February 2007, 10:19 PM

Hi AngryPixie,

Thank you for the break down and taking the time to do it, appreciated.

I don’t really understand the maths enough to know what it all means, do understand some of them, but overall I think the selections seem ok.
That's ok. Thought it best to get the figures straightened out so everybody is talking about the same thing

What it means is that you're doing rather well for "a novice". All things being equal, there's a high liklihood your method will continue to turn a profit.

With regard to my excelsheet, all by hand, what are formulas. LOL
...
You mentioned “It was a bit peculiar” can I ask in what way
Peculiar in the sense that it was pretty obviously copied from an analogue source ie. an A4 piece of paper.

If you continue using spreadsheets you'd probably be better off converting and entering your SP' in decimal format ie. 2.00 instead of 1/1, 4.00 instead of 3/1 and so on. You'll find Excel much more useful then.

These are US races right??

Don't be backward to share your selections around http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

Pixie

Bhagwan

12th February 2007, 10:34 PM

Hi Top Rank,
Thanks for your possitive words.
I dont mind going over stuff with others especially if one already has a fair grasp of it already , there's less questions to answer.

I'm glad you are crunching a quid out of a very challenging game of skill/chance.

The 2 horse plan revolves around a pretty sophisticated piece of programming software which constantly adjusts depending on what is happening betting wise.
I feel its a bit too complicated to explain here because one needs the program to operate it. So there is no real point explaining it.

I feel the ladder staking plan could work once the perameters are known.e.g
$2 x 2 (lots of bets)
$4 x 2
$6 x 2
$8 x 2 ect.
Up to $30 x 2

Allows for 60 bets
bank needed $1860

Also a version of the 6 point plan could also work on 2 horses a race.
Example
Split O/L over 2 horses
Target--Divisor--O/L
$12 -----6-------2
$14------6-------2
$16------7-------2w $1@4.30 (ret 4.30/ O/L 2 = $2.15= 1.15/1
Now deduct the 1.15/1 off the divisor.
Profit +$2.30 now deduct this off target.

$13.7----5.85----2
$15.7----5.85----3
$18.7----6.85----3

We use the divisor in sets of 2 .e.g. 66778899 ect
We reduce the divisor by the equivalent of fractional odds not decimal.
After working out the gross return divided by the total outlayed as per example above
The divisor never drops below 3.

Once any profit is made , start at the beginning .
It works a treat if one can hit winners that pay reasonable prices because we are using 2 horses for the process.
3/1 winner = 1/1
4/1 winner = 1.5/1
5/1 winner = 2/1
6/1 winner = 2.5/1 ect

Odds Calculation
Total Ret / Total O/L = x, then convert this to odds
e.g. $240 / $90 = $2.67 = 1.7/1 Now deduct this off divisor

Once one gets their head around it , one will see that the bets dont go spirelling into oblivion , it stays pretty smooth throughout.
That's because we are using the divisor in lots of 2.
With this plan , it does help if one can hit the odd strong payer.

If one feels its getting too heavy handed , just add 2 pts to the divisor.

Try it out on some past results first.

Cheers.

Bhagwan

12th February 2007, 11:59 PM

Hi Baco60,
That Gash friend of mine, seems to love showing contempt whenever the mood suits.

The deliberate **************ising of peoples sign in names proves that.

It is as if the chap has a Jekyl & Hide personality , only difference is Jekyl & hide did'nt insult people , he just killed them.

His friends said he was a very nice chap once you got to know him.
A murder granted , but a very nice chap indeed.

Gash the Jekyl seems to relish in exhibiting his blatent hatred towards others, by trying to publicly insult them.

The chap's class is showing , time for decorum school me thinks.

If Bhagwan had any feelings, he might even be offended .

I wonder if that chap will end up in a certain place where they practice Thermodynamics.....
On a daily basis.

Bhagwan

13th February 2007, 12:06 AM

Novice Punter

13th February 2007, 01:40 AM

Hi AngryPixie,

Thanks for your comments, if I can take your comments one at a time and answer them in the order that they were made, just helps my concentration and to answer everything.

I agree that a given set of figures is essential for further reference and yours are the ones to go with.

Novice Punter, Novice there is a long story of why I chose that name, much too long to put here, I will explain whenever my PM is enabled, if you wish.

Analogue source, to be totally honest, and im not ashamed to admit it, I have had to ask someone what that means. Its too tech for me, just wouldn’t have the patience or the skill to attempt a mission like that, patience for a lot of things and other people but not that kind of stuff. Im a hands person, if I cant do it with my hands forget it, if you do a search for 22-RB on the net you will see what I mean.

2.00 instead of 1/1, its only since last year that I got to grips with fractional odds, in Ireland and UK it is the way the odds are quoted every day, in the bookies anyway.
I will make a separate sheet with the odds showing the decimal. Decimals really confuse me but with a little bit of effort might even surprise myself.

US races, my selections are all turf in UK. Flat and Jumps only, I don’t like AW racing too unpredictable although the race type I mentioned in previous post is AW, but at this time it seems to be worth a longer look over last year.

As I mentioned in another post my system is SP based just at the off and in certain race types, as much as I would like to post I cant.

Having gotten all that off my chest if I may refer to my very first post, it stated.

“This is not a selection system nor is it a staking plan.

This is an attempt to devise a method to get through long losing runs.

My idea is to see if an ideal number “divisor” can be found to reduce bank loses for any strike rate.

Everybody has their own way of making their selections and preferences for staking plans.

A problem in common to most punters if not all, is the inevitable long losing run.

A loss recovery plan is part of my idea not everybody’s cuppa, but, each to his own.

There has been lots of work in this area before and I’m sure mine won’t be the last.

I use groups of 6 runners to win X and recover loses.

6 losses terminate a group or a win when it happens.

Whatever is lost on a losing group of 6 is left behind.

This cut off is necessary.

Start new group.

The original plan was to find:

1. Ideal number of bets to put together to get through the long losing runs without stretching the bank too much. 6 seems to be the ideal number for this set of results.

2. To see if anything could get near the Level Stakes ideal and to make the same profit. “

Some of the posts from some of the members would seem to indicate that this is an attack on Level Stakes, its not, the plan is to win the same amount on the same horse as Levels does plus recover the losses left behind using the Level Stakes plan.

The 6 idea that is proposed is to ensure that that profit is maximized.

Surely profit is the name of the game, not an ideal.

Sorry its a bit long winded.

Regards and Respect

Kevin

Novice Punter

Novice Punter

13th February 2007, 02:12 AM

Hi Bhagwan

I just want to say im very sorry for the comments that were made by a member.

I feel responsible, if I had not started this thread it might not have ever been said.

I am very annoyed and upset over this.

Please accept my apology.

Regards and Respect

Kevin

Novice Punter

crash

13th February 2007, 05:44 AM

Dear new members,
If you read how many posts I've made over the years and how many Bagman has made [meaning we have both been here a long time], the penny might drop that a bit of old fashioned raging and baiting has been going on [Bagman knows I have a dry sense of humor] and as far as I know, that old Aussie tradition isn't [yet] politically incorrect. Having said that, thanks for the touching apology to Bagman on my behalf NP [is it OK if I call you that?].

As for using nicknames, it's an Aussie tradition and I've been calling Bhagwan, Bagman for years, Chromeprince [Chrome] Darkydog [Darky] and even JFC [KFC] at times etc.

I'm sure Bagman does appreciate you lot getting stuck into me though and I'm sure he doesn't mind me thanking you all on his behalf. The growing idol worship and blossoming of Bagman's groupie base is also I'm sure, highly appreciated by the Old Boy. It's given him a new lease of life and he is now literally bursting with new ideas and even double posts :-) !

Beagle

13th February 2007, 07:42 AM

Good on you Baco60 for sticking up for Bhagwan. I too have been a fan of his contributions ever since I started reading the forum and I second every thing you said about him. Some people it sems can't see the forest for the trees.

AngryPixie

13th February 2007, 08:02 AM

Analogue source, to be totally honest, and im not ashamed to admit it
Nor should you be. I still use A4 worksheets myself. But when time allows, I do transfer things over to Excel. If you can find somebody to assist you it's well worth the effort learning more about Excel. There's much more to it than adding up rows and columns of numbers.

Im a hands person, if I cant do it with my hands forget it, if you do a search for 22-RB on the net you will see what I mean.
Fair enough

US races, my selections are all turf in UK. Flat and Jumps only
That explains it. You don't see alot of 85/40 here in OZ. http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

Keep it up. Your doing quite well. An advantage of 10.81% and a level stakes profit over 6% are excellent numbers over almost 1000 bets.

Keep us posted

Pixie

Novice Punter

13th February 2007, 09:01 AM

Hi AngryPixie,

Really chuffed here, thank you very much for all the work.

Have a question for you.

Advantage of 10.81%, can you explain this to me please.

Kevin

Novice Punter

Novice Punter

13th February 2007, 09:30 AM

Hi Crash,

Thanks for your side of the story, please read my post again, carefully.

May I respectfully point out that your name is not mentioned.

You may call me NP Kevin Novice Punter or Novice.

Your name is Crash, that’s the name you chose and I will call you that.

“It's given him a new lease of life and he is now literally bursting with new ideas and even double posts.”

It’s a shame there it not more of that around.

Kevin

Novice Punter

crash

13th February 2007, 01:21 PM

Hi Crash,

“It's given him a new lease of life and he is now literally bursting with new ideas and even double posts.”

It’s a shame there it not more of that around.

Kevin

Novice Punter

There used to be NP, used to be a lot more of it ..good humor too !

Novice Punter

13th February 2007, 09:57 PM

Hi Crash,

“There used to be NP, used to be a lot more of it ..good humor too !”

I have been looking in from time to time over the past few years, and always found the atmosphere friendly and the discussion lively and provocative, which is what a good forum is about.

I decided to join to present the way I was trying to further the mission of gaining more profit. By doing so I was presenting some 2 years hard work for the benefit of all punters, and to see if it can be improved or even bettered by someone else.

Also there were calculations that I didn’t know how to do, I have received great help from some of the members for which I am very grateful.

Have a look at my original post, see what you think.

Kevin

Novice Punter

crash

14th February 2007, 06:07 AM

Your original post NP and your main points:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is what I call my G6 System.

This is not a selection system nor is it a staking plan.

This is an attempt to devise a method to get through long losing runs.

My idea is to see if an ideal number “divisor” can be found to reduce bank loses for any strike rate.

Everybody has their own way of making their selections and preferences for staking plans.

A problem in common to most punters if not all, is the inevitable long losing run.

A loss recovery plan is part of my idea not everybody’s cuppa, but, each to his own.

There has been lots of work in this area before and I’m sure mine won’t be the last.

Anyway, here’s how it goes.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1. I use groups of 6 runners to win X and recover loses.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Chasing loses. The [very] well known golden rule here is: "Never chase losses.'' You will not find a competent punter with half a brain who will disagree with that rule. Casino's love punters who chase loses and so do Bookies!

-------------------------------------------------------------------
2. 6 losses terminate a group or a win when it happens.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

If you have a run of say 19 losses [which is not unusual unless your backing odds-on horses], all you are doing is: L,L,L,L,L,L [stop, start again] L,L,L,L,L,L [stop, start again] L,L,L,L,L,L [stop start again]. L,W,?,?,?,? [stop start again] etc.

At flat stakes you will have lost 19 units and then had a winner. Work out for yourself using your favorite progression what your losses would have been and remember every new progression in a set of six is chasing the same profit as your first bet in each set, but risking larger and larger amounts of money to achieve it. In the above example you will have lost considerably more than 19 units. Even if you reduce you groups to 2 instead of 6 you will lose more than 19 units. Say your first bet was trying to win $10 from a $5 bet. Very quickly your risking $50 or more depending on your progression, to win a lousy $10 and that's extreme odds-on betting!

What you are really doing is using a progression to chase loses. That is why any type of progression betting is called a 'Loss Chasing System' and the golden rule is? 'Never chase loses' .... for very good reasons.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
3. Whatever is lost on a losing group of 6 is left behind.
------------------------------------------------------------------
At flat stakes you have left behind 6 lost units and more than that with whatever progression you decide on. OK, I can see that with regular wins and no runs of losses, a progression system [on paper] can be attractive, but runs of losses are a regular thing in Horse Racing and they tend to wipe out your hard earned profits. Then your just going backward.
-----------------------

NP,

Personally, what I find does work for me is not progression betting nor flat stakes betting. I adjust my betting amount around a personally chosen flat stakes standard unit bet [could be $5 or $50 depending on what a punter can afford] depending on the odds on offer.

If a punter selects horses to back based on price. tips or rating etc. but not personally chosen through handicapping, the idea would be to bet higher on the lower priced horses [they win more often] and lower on the longer priced horses [they lose more often]. Thats a sound and well know betting method based around flat stakes betting.

However, handicappers [that's me for the last 35yrs.] who make their betting selections based on what they think can win a selected race, will set their own price on a horse based on what chance [odds] they think it has of winning. If the price on offer is below their set price, they might [should] ignore the race. However, if the price on offer is above their set price, they will often bet above their standard bet. Personally that's how I bet and the higher the price offered [the larger the overlay], the more I will bet which is the exact opposite of the other method I mention above.

You have to decide for yourself what method suits you best and if you think betting a sets of 6 chasing losses method is the way to go, well give it a whirl and keep careful records. Theory is never the same as reality in betting on the horses and actually doing it will show you what's good and what's lousy betting practice pretty quickly. Don't be fooled by early success with progressions as they often do work for a time, especially if you are backing short prices. Long term though, they will bite you on the ******** :-)

Cheers.