Mark does a Maria

[Mark]

Well here goes.

Starting bank $2000
Same rules as Maria.
0 - 3.50 = 1%
3.55 - 7.40 = 0.6%
7.6 - 11.0 = 0.4%

Increase bets as bank increases, but only decrease bets if bank reduces by 35% from its peak.

Day 1

Scone
R1 7 COVET IN GOLD
R2 6 CALGA
R3 11 LES'S LASS
R4 6 LANSZAR
R5 7 KHARGOSH
R6 10 CHANCE OF LIGHTNIN
R8 5 FULL BENCH

Warrnambool
R1 6 GELDOF
R2 1 MARCH IN STYLE
R3 11 SNAKIE
R4 3 FOUR LEGS GOOD
R5 5 GENERAL REFLECTION
R6 4 SUPER PINS
R7 3 SHADES OF DANE
R8 5 GENEROUS TRISTANA

[michaelg]

Good luck, Mark.

Quite a few of them are well favoured in the Telegraph pre-post market.

[Mark]

Cheers Michael. I don't look at prices when I do the form.

This really has me thinking. Maria finished with a strike rate of 86% and didn't seem to lay a lot of real shorties. She also had quite a few losing days, yet still finished way out in front. Can any of the stats people run the following?

Laying numbers. ie blindly laying 1,2,3,4,5 etc
Laying jockeys.
Laying barriers.
Laying opening/closing fav, 2nd fav, 3rd fav etc

Anything that has a strike rate of say, less than 20% may be a goer.
Obviously she had a decent selection method, but the real gold may be in the staking. I don't know.

ps I should add, today's bets will be $20, $12 and $8.

[Mark]

I HAVE TO GO OUT, SO WON'T BE LAYING THE LAST AT WARRNAMBOOL OR THE LAST AT SCONE.

[Merriguy]

Well, not being around for the last at Scone was a blessing. Well done, Mark. Break out the smilies :)

[Mark]

What a day !!

Scone
R1 7 COVET IN GOLD No Bet *
R2 6 CALGA 3.36F **
R3 11 LES'S LASS 4.60
R4 6 LANSZAR No Bet ***
R5 7 KHARGOSH No Bet
R6 10 CHANCE OF LIGHTNIN No Bet
R8 5 FULL BENCH No Bet ****

Warrnambool
R1 6 GELDOF 6.40
R2 1 MARCH IN STYLE No Bet #
R3 11 SNAKIE 7.40
R4 3 FOUR LEGS GOOD 9.16
R5 5 GENERAL REFLECTION 8.0
R6 4 SUPER PINS 5.80
R7 3 SHADES OF DANE No Bet ##
R8 5 GENEROUS TRISTANA No Bet ###

A clean sheet for the first day. An excellent start, not without its drama's.

* Just as I was about to place the bet, my whole system froze. Not happy Jan. No bet so not recorded.
** Average price as I laid it at 3.80 ($12), then more when it came in to 3.40 ($6), then there were late scratchings. Total bet $18. It ran last.
*** Totally misread the market and missed laying at 8.80, seconds later it was 14.0.
**** My lucky day. I had to go out so did not lay this winner.
#Drifted fast, 8.0, 10, 12, so I missed laying this one.
## Traded at more than 10, will explain below.
### I was out so missed this one.

Apart from the winner in the last at Scone, not one of the others ran a place.

The only change I am going to make is to lower the outside price range to 10.0 instead of 11.0. I felt uncomfortable at the thought of laying one out at more than 10.0.

In summary, 15 selections, 7 bets, 0 winners.
Nett profit $77.90, or 3.89% of bank.
New bank $2077.90.
New bets $20.77, $12.46 and $8.31.

[michaelg]

Well done, Mark.

The "accident" that you thankfully missed I believe is unimportant because there may most probably be other races that for one reason or another you will also miss that would be profitable as per Scone race 1 no.7.

Are you going to keep records of the results of each price band? I think Maria wasn't too enthused with the results of the selections in the $0 to $3.50 range.

I'm curious to know how you can bet amounts that include cents. My betfair account is in pounds sterling and as far as I know our bets can't include pence.

[burrah]

I'm curious to know how you can bet amounts that include cents. My betfair account is in pounds sterling and as far as I know our bets can't include pence.My Betfair A/C is in Aussie dollars, even when I use my UK envelope.

[AngryPixie]

My BF account is the same as Burrah's.

Great start Mark.

[crash]

Impressive going!

[crash]

It seems maria wasn't the only one from that site with an impressive record.
'God Punter' only backed horses, but boy he certainly deserved his nickname!

'THE PERFECT SYSTEM'
----------------------------
ONEDUNME [ Later nicknamed: 'God Punter']

http://new.punterslounge.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=29

2yrs. and 88 pages of almost daily upfront selections and not shorties either, until someone peeved him off enough to disappear without trace at about page 85.

I never did find the page with the system explained [was there ever one?]. Something to do with the Aztecs and maths I think.

[Mark]

Can't help with pounds/pence. I opened my a/c with aussie dollars.

Michael, I wasn't going to keep records of each price band but seeing as how it's only day 1 I will.

0 - 3.50 +17.10
3.55 - 7.40 +45.60
7.60 - 10.00 +15.20

[stugots]

I HAVE TO GO OUT, SO WON'T BE LAYING THE LAST AT WARRNAMBOOL OR THE LAST AT SCONE.

hi mark, know it worked in your favour this time, but i am wondering why you didnt just place your bets to be matched before leaving?

ias/tab markets would give you a fairly accurate guide as to the nags prices, which you then place on betfair, maybe a point or 2 shorter.

if they get matched, all well & good, if not, no harm done.

[Merriguy]

Michael,

I think you will find that if you put in a decimal backers odds it will accept anything! Miy account was automatically in Oz dollars too.

[Mark]

Hi stugots, I've never been a set and forget person, never have & never will be.

TAB markets are rubbish, and IAS don't go up until about 10 minutes before the start for country races.

If something blows, you get nothing.
If something firms you get caught.
Lose, lose, for mine.

[Mark]

Day 2
Bank $2077.90
Bets $20.77, $12.46 and $8.31.

PORT
R1 5 FOXHOLE
R2 2 TWO QUID
R3 8 PREVELLY
R6 4 WILL STRIKE
R7 7 HELLO SUGAR
R8 2 RUINS WAY

TATURA
R1 2 FADE TO BLUE
R3 3 IVORYS IMAGE
R4 7 ORCHARD GLORY
R5 1 DANSKER
R6 3 BRIDGE BREAKA
R7 1 CAPTEUR
R8 3 WEST HO

TOWNSVILLE
R1 3 EL ZORILLO
R2 9 CARRY THE REGENT
R3 7 SHINKANSEN EXPRESS
R4 2 MINDMASTER
R6 5 PYRAMID RAIDER
R8 4 JACOBS TRICK

[Chrome Prince]

It seems maria wasn't the only one from that site with an impressive record.
'God Punter' only backed horses, but boy he certainly deserved his nickname!

'THE PERFECT SYSTEM'
----------------------------
ONEDUNME [ Later nicknamed: 'God Punter']

http://new.punterslounge.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=29

2yrs. and 88 pages of almost daily upfront selections and not shorties either, until someone peeved him off enough to disappear without trace at about page 85.

I never did find the page with the system explained [was there ever one?]. Something to do with the Aztecs and maths I think.

Crash,
Got ya hooked eh?
I hate it when I find threads like that because I tend to read every page through curiosity.

His staking plan (ancient aztecs) was more of a joke I think, because he's quite the comedian at times.
He looks to be doing staking similar, but different to Maria, less on longer prices, more on a certain price band and then less again on the shorter ones.

Within those pages are some offhanded comments which are gold and I quote:

He missed a winner accidentally, so chased to make up for it and....
A string of losers all because I couldn't control my temper
Been there, done that.

What happened was, he had a mini downturn (nothing big) and this moron called Frankie keptriding him and goading him with every loser, so ONEDUNME gave him a serve and then left, came back and posted a couple of winning selections and then left for good.
It seems there's always one who comes along to spoil the party. :(

ONEDUNME finished miles in front!

[crash]

For those that climbed aboard early, what a party!

[darkydog2002]

Is ONEDUNME realted to WHOFLUNGDUN ?

darky

[Mark]

OK, how long's this been going on??

Day 2
Bank $2077.90
Bets $20.77, $12.46 and $8.31.

PORT
R1 5 FOXHOLE 8.8
R2 2 TWO QUID 6.2
R3 8 PREVELLY 8.2
R6 4 WILL STRIKE no bet
R7 7 HELLO SUGAR no bet
R8 2 RUINS WAY 5.9

TATURA
R1 2 FADE TO BLUE 5.8
R3 3 IVORYS IMAGE 2.96F
R4 7 ORCHARD GLORY 8.2
R5 1 DANSKER 9.1
R6 3 BRIDGE BREAKA 9.2 *
R7 1 CAPTEUR no bet
R8 3 WEST HO 4.3

TOWNSVILLE
R1 3 EL ZORILLO 3.25 fav..............Won
R2 9 CARRY THE REGENT 6.4
R3 7 SHINKANSEN EXPRESS no bet
R4 2 MINDMASTER 5.15
R6 5 PYRAMID RAIDER no bet
R8 4 JACOBS TRICK no bet

* Tatura R6, I only got matched for 28c !!!!

19 selections
13 bets
12 winners

Nett profit $75.87
Total profit $153.77
New Bank $2153.77 +7.68%
New bets $21.53, $12.92 and $8.61.

[Merriguy]

Did better than 28c on the 6th at Tatura --- but missed a couple (too high a price when I tried to lay my bet e.g. Danisker); and was in too much of a hurry when trying to lay Mindmaster --- and backed it instead!! Still way in front. Congrats on your efforts.


Of course, we have to bear in mind what Maria says over and over again on her thread --- there will be bad days.

Went through nearly half of her thread last night (no wonder I was muddled backing Mindmaster) --- was almost gaga at the end; but it was significant that her bank was only up 40% after 103 days --- 3 months! Yet it went on to be up 3000%, or whatever, in a year!

[Mark]

Merriguy

I'm hoping to average only 1% per day, which at the end of the year gives a healthy profit. Way ahead of that so far!

[Merriguy]

Mark,

On the B/F Forum a few days ago one guy said that he lays every favourite every night (English, I guess), to lose 100 pounds, on the US races. He lays them all at whatever price to lose 100.

Doing this he made 4% first year, 8% last year. This year he is down 0.5% --- but he is not worried as there is still a long way to go. Incidentally, that -0.5% is 2000 pounds down!!!

His worst night, he claims, was when 26/40 won! "Not nice but that's the game" was his comment. To balance that he claims to be going to N.Y. this Friday --- with his 'missis' --- 'our fourth trip this year'!

Makes your aim of 1% not too bad if you can believe what he has said.

[Mark]

Day 3
Bank $2153.77
Bets $21.53, $12.92 & $8.61

Launceston
R1 7 GEORGIA STAR
R2 2 MISTY CROWN
R3 3 FULL VELOCITY
R4 6 TIBOOBURRA TRAVIS
R5 1 AFFAIR DE JOUR
R8 4 APRILIA
R9 1 ONE WAY TRAFFIC
R10 6 DEBACLE

Eagle Farm
R1 5 VAL DE LA DIVA
R2 8 FLYING SILVER
R3 9 MR MOJITO
R4 9 DUSTY TAAN
R5 10 SHEWHOMUSTBEOBEYED
R6 7 POWER CITY
R7 3 NATIONAL FOREST

Randwick
R1 7 REIBY REFRAIN
R2 4 NAVAHO TRAIL
R3 3 ROLL OVER ROVER
R4 8 NOW NOW
R5 3 SWEED
R6 7 COLOURFUL MOMENTS

Werribee
R2 2 PERFECT RULE
R3 7 LADY MAMBO **
R5 10 PASS THE BUBBLY
R6 3 TILL TIME

Gawler
R1 2 L'ARTISTE
R2 7 PRINCE DANZATORE
R3 4 STAND YOUR GROUND
R4 2 POSITIVE ACTION
R5 5 DON'T TELL KEL
R6 3 SYMMETRICAL STAR
R7 6 SHAMANIC

Queanbeyan
R1 2 DANCING DRAMA
R2 3 TREPEZANOV
R3 5 JUSTA PRETENDER
R4 1 BREZINA
R5 2 THE BOXER
R6 7 PINEY CREEK
R7 1 BOSSY MATILDA


** Only lay if in the first 2 in the market.
Seems silly to lay my 3rd pick in a 5 horse race if it's 3rd fav or worse.

[stugots]

Hi stugots, I've never been a set and forget person, never have & never will be.

TAB markets are rubbish, and IAS don't go up until about 10 minutes before the start for country races.

If something blows, you get nothing.
If something firms you get caught.
Lose, lose, for mine.

hear what your saying mark, but after all isint the aim to lay your selection within your price range parameters if possible? so if one has a guide, be it rough or not, as to the nags likely price range, im not too sure what the problem with a nag blowing or firming is, your only getting caught if it wins, which is no different from any of the other bets your making.

[AngryPixie]

hear what your saying mark, but after all isint the aim to lay your selection within your price range parameters if possible? so if one has a guide, be it rough or not, as to the nags likely price range, im not too sure what the problem with a nag blowing or firming is, your only getting caught if it wins, which is no different from any of the other bets your making.
Stugots

I'm with Mark. I've had my pants pulled down too many times by laying too early, only to watch the "private information" money come in at the last minute. I lay to prices but I know others have more info than me. My prices are a rough guide and if my selection shortens too much from my assessed price I walk away.

Hope to work on automating this with the Betfair API.

Pixie

[Mark]

Win or lose stugots, if a horse is 6 into 5/2, what price would you like to lay it at? The same goes for a horse that's 6 out to 12. Laying at the right price gives you options, and it's a risk reward thing. Plus I just hate betting blind. I never bet on the tote for the same reason.

Speaking of the tote, I didn't lay the selection in the first at Launceston. 12 on Betfair but 3.30 fav on Unitab. The poor saps that backed it wouldn't have a clue.

[AngryPixie]

but it was significant that her bank was only up 40% after 103 days --- 3 months! Yet it went on to be up 3000%, or whatever, in a year!
Merriguy

Can you put this down to anything? Did her strike rate improve? Was she getting better prices?

Pix

[stugots]

fair enough mark & angryp, & i tend to agree with u both.

i often lay in early at what i percieve to be an unders price but then bet back out to reduce potential losses if i start to get that 'bad feeling' abt my ever shortening nag. not a regular occurance but one of the reasons bf is somewhat of a revelation, to me at least, the ability to get out of unexpected trouble.

[Chrome Prince]

Mark,

On the B/F Forum a few days ago one guy said that he lays every favourite every night (English, I guess), to lose 100 pounds, on the US races. He lays them all at whatever price to lose 100.

Doing this he made 4% first year, 8% last year. This year he is down 0.5% --- but he is not worried as there is still a long way to go. Incidentally, that -0.5% is 2000 pounds down!!!

His worst night, he claims, was when 26/40 won! "Not nice but that's the game" was his comment. To balance that he claims to be going to N.Y. this Friday --- with his 'missis' --- 'our fourth trip this year'!

Makes your aim of 1% not too bad if you can believe what he has said.

Very similar to what I'm doing Merriguy, but the key is the price he gets on those favourites, and I have a price cut off, because the higher the price gets, the less likely I can judge it's true price and the more exposure.

I think I bet the same same night that 26/40 happened!

:(

[AngryPixie]

fair enough mark & angryp, & i tend to agree with u both.

i often lay in early at what i percieve to be an unders price but then bet back out to reduce potential losses if i start to get that 'bad feeling' abt my ever shortening nag. not a regular occurance but one of the reasons bf is somewhat of a revelation, to me at least, the ability to get out of unexpected trouble.In an earlier incantation of my lay method I was placing a "stop loss" on the shorteners occasionally, and again you could probably automate this. I'm really trying to make my approach as simple as possible now, and I've learned from experience that the best "stop loss" is to place the lay just before the jump or not at all. Drifting after the lay doesn't worry me in the slightest.

Pix

[Chrome Prince]

In an earlier incantation of my lay method I was placing a "stop loss" on the shorteners occasionally, and again you could probably automate this. I'm really trying to make my approach as simple as possible now, and I've learned from experience that the best "stop loss" is to place the lay just before the jump or not at all. Drifting after the lay doesn't worry me in the slightest.

Pix

Laying just before the jump is almost equal to taking the average lay price available. It's not the worst you can do, but it's not the best either.
If I were to lay them just before the jump, I wouldn't make as much or even suffer a slight loss I think.
In the case where you can't estimate the correct price, then taking the last price is o.k.
In my case, I have staggered wagers to percentage of bank maximum that ensures I get at least better than the average price.
That is why I concentrate on the short end of the market, because I can accurately assess the longterm true price and the fluctuations are not savage to my detriment.
The difference between betting blind on the tote and blind on Betfair, is that you must end up with whatever they give you on the tote, whereas with Betfair you can specify what you want and load your lay bets to advantage if there is a crunch in the price.

It's no secret how my staking is done, so I'll share it.

For overseas races, I take the prepost price and deduct 10% on Even money to odds on.
I deduct 20% if there is a scratching which is in the betting market.
I then just load my bets at these prices for an even money horse:

1.80
1.78
1.76
1.74
1.72
1.71
etc.

Why? Because I know that longterm, anything less than 10% less than prepost on these shorties is longterm profit. The more that's matched at shorter and shorter prices, the bigger the overlay (underlay in reverse for laying). A price crunch does not affect me longterm.

[burrah]

Merriguy

Can you put this down to anything? Did her strike rate improve? Was she getting better prices?

PixDid anyone follow her picks this month on Adrian Massey's site?
I was following her thread, a lay comp, but didn't realise that the gladfly mathematician was the ""famous" "infamous" Maria of another forum.

[Merriguy]

That %^$#*@ Debacle. What a debacle --- and all by a nose or some such. What am I doing still laying horses in Launceston at 6.00 at night?

Oh well, Mark, still up for the day, I imagine. Well done.

[Mark]

Beat me to it merriguy. Nosed out in 3 photo's.

Launceston
R1 7 GEORGIA STAR 9.4............I only got $1.83 on
R2 2 MISTY CROWN no bet
R3 3 FULL VELOCITY 4.8
R4 6 TIBOOBURRA TRAVIS 4.5
R5 1 AFFAIR DE JOUR 8
R8 4 APRILIA 8.6
R9 1 ONE WAY TRAFFIC 5
R10 6 DEBACLE 6.89 won

Eagle Farm
R1 5 VAL DE LA DIVA no bet
R2 8 FLYING SILVER no bet
R3 9 MR MOJITO 7.2 won
R4 9 DUSTY TAAN no bet
R5 10 SHEWHOMUSTBEOBEYED 6.8
R6 7 POWER CITY 4.7 won
R7 3 NATIONAL FOREST no bet

Randwick
R1 7 REIBY REFRAIN no bet
R2 4 NAVAHO TRAIL no bet
R3 3 ROLL OVER ROVER 5.1
R4 8 NOW NOW no bet
R5 3 SWEED no bet
R6 7 COLOURFUL MOMENTS 6.6

Werribee
R2 2 PERFECT RULE 5.5
R3 7 LADY MAMBO ** 2.44 fav won
R5 10 PASS THE BUBBLY 6
R6 3 TILL TIME no bet

Gawler
R1 2 L'ARTISTE 3.25 fav
R2 7 PRINCE DANZATORE 5.6
R3 4 STAND YOUR GROUND 5.8
R4 2 POSITIVE ACTION 2.86 fav won
R5 5 DON'T TELL KEL 5.8
R6 3 SYMMETRICAL STAR 6.4
R7 6 SHAMANIC no bet

Queanbeyan
R1 2 DANCING DRAMA 3.05 won
R2 3 TREPEZANOV 5.2 fav
R3 5 JUSTA PRETENDER 8.6
R4 1 BREZINA no bet
R5 2 THE BOXER OFF
R6 7 PINEY CREEK OFF
R7 1 BOSSY MATILDA OFF

Started off well, being well up after 7 lays lost. Then 4 out of the next 7 won. Clawed most of it back until 2 of the last 3 won, and finished at the days low.

Selections 39
Bets 24
Losses 6.............about 3 too many!!

Nett loss $112.95.
New bank $2040.82, bets unchanged.
Still ahead by 2.04%

[Mark]

Suffering a bit of analysis paralysis today but here goes anyway.

Kembla
R5 9 HARAM
R7 2 FIORI
R8 8 CHOOSE TO DREAM

Mornington
R1 4 CIAO ROCKY
R2 3 INEIGHT
R5 2 BROOKTON MIST
R7 7 DEVILISH

Rocky
R3 4 SPEEDEX
R5 1 REVOLVA

As much as I hate tinker...........I'm changing the price bands as there seems to be too much risk on the upper end of the middle band.
The new prices are 0 -3.50 @ 1%, 3.55 - 5.60 @ .6%, 5.7 - 7.2 @.5%, and 7.4 - 10 @ .4%.

Todays bets are $21.53, $12.92, $10.76, and $8.61.

[michaelg]

Mark, I think this change to the price bands will prove to be beneficial - hopefully!

Good luck.

[Mark]

A lot less action today, and a small loss, with 1 losing bet from the 4 lays.

Kembla
R5 9 HARAM 7.8*
R7 2 FIORI 3.8 fav.........won
R8 8 CHOOSE TO DREAM 4.2

Mornington
R1 4 CIAO ROCKY no bet
R2 3 INEIGHT no bet
R5 2 BROOKTON MIST no bet
R7 7 DEVILISH no bet

Rocky
R3 4 SPEEDEX no bet
R5 1 REVOLVA 8.2

*I don't usually comment on suspect goings on in racing but this one caught the eye. Opened fav and just blew and blew. Funnily enough it missed the start and raced wide the whole way, before flashing home to grab 3rd.

Nett loss = $7.57.
New bank $2033.25, no change to bets.

[Mark]

Day 5

Ipswich
R3 4 IMPERIAL GROUCH
R4 4 FRISCO AFFAIR
R5 10 MAXIMISS
R7 2 RED ABERNANT

Canterbury
R4 5 ANEXTRA
R5 6 FULLY ARMED
R6 6 SPRINGDINGO
R7 1 FLYING ORDERS

Sandown
R2 6 HIGH CZAR
R5 4 DISCORSI
R6 6 FLASHNIKOV

Coffs
R3 3 TIGRE D'OR
R5 7 GALLIC MISS
R6 4 SONOFA STAR
R7 3 BELLBUCCA
R8 3 GYMNASIUM

Kyneton
R2 10 SKIBO CASTLE
R3 3 DENSARRAY
R4 5 THINKING
R5 8 FAYE'S HAT
R7 3 LURE THE LION
R8 2 ZWAHILLION

Bets are $21.53, $12.92, $10.76 & $8.61.

[Mark]

Skibo Castle.............how many more will win by a nose????????

[michaelg]

Mark, in Skibo Castle's race there were several unraced horses. Could this have an adverse effect on your selection process?

[Mark]

No Michael, just bad luck. The only place that horse was in front was right on the line. grrrrr
Photo's in the last couple of weeks have not favoured me. Margins of less than a 1/2 head have cost me dearly lately.

[Mark]

The only thing that keeps me going, is knowing that Maria made nothing over a period of 70 days, and had another run where she lost 4.5 % over 30 days.

Ipswich
R3 4 IMPERIAL GROUCH.......................4.4
R4 4 FRISCO AFFAIR............................no bet
R5 10 MAXIMISS .................................no bet
R7 2 RED ABERNANT ...........................3.1 fav

Canterbury
R4 5 ANEXTRA ....................................no bet
R5 6 FULLY ARMED ..............................no bet
R6 6 SPRINGDINGO ............................7.19
R7 1 FLYING ORDERS ..........................no bet

Sandown
R2 6 HIGH CZAR .................................no bet
R5 4 DISCORSI ...................................no bet
R6 6 FLASHNIKOV ...............................no bet

Coffs
R3 3 TIGRE D'OR .................................3.55
R5 7 GALLIC MISS ...............................off
R6 4 SONOFA STAR .............................off
R7 3 BELLBUCCA .................................off
R8 3 GYMNASIUM ................................off

Kyneton
R2 10 SKIBO CASTLE ...........................6.2....won (nose, again!!)
R3 3 DENSARRAY ................................no bet
R4 5 THINKING ...................................no bet
R5 8 FAYE'S HAT .................................8.0
R7 3 LURE THE LION ............................3.7....won
R8 2 ZWAHILLION ...............................no bet....big priced winner

7 bets, 2 losers, nett loss $27.44
New bank $2005.81, amazingly still in profit.
Bets unchanged.

[michaelg]

Yes, its amazing its still in profit after a poor strike rate. I would say your staking method must be very good, and so I would not feel too discouraged.

Once the strike rate picks up, so too should the profit.

I've been thinking about your comments on the TAB 1-3 numbers. I believe it would have had another good day today by limiting the lay price to $10. Tomorrow hopefully I'll give it a go but I'll record seperately the Listed, Group and Set Weights to the Handicaps, Class races, Restricted, etc. We'll see what happens.

[AngryPixie]

Photo's in the last couple of weeks have not favoured me.
I've had that problem all my life :(

Chin up!

Pixie

[Merriguy]

You are really doing well, Mark. Disappointing that there are so many of your picks that don't win, yet they are outside your prices range. {Actually Maria says a few times that she did have another band that she did bet on --- but she did not want to get people being carried away. Zwahillion was certainly a cautionary tale in that regard.****

Not sure why Fully Armed and Densarray could not have been layed. Their starting prices on the UniTab were O.K.. I wasn't able to be at the computer all yesterday (and missed both the winners!!); so there probably was some reason.

[Mark]

Day 6

Warwick Farm
R6 9 GREY STREAM

Caulfield
R1 1 SNORT
R3 7 MILLIE ROSE
R4 2 FURIO

Doomben
R1 1 WAKIL
R4 3 RAPID REASON
R6 13 SHA'BOURNE REGAL

[crash]

R6 13 SHA'BOURNE REGAL

I'll have bit of that thanks, what odds?

[crash]

R4 3 RAPID REASON
I'll have a bit of that too!

[stugots]

Day 6

Warwick Farm
R6 9 GREY STREAM

Caulfield
R1 1 SNORT
R3 7 MILLIE ROSE
R4 2 FURIO

Doomben
R1 1 WAKIL
R4 3 RAPID REASON
R6 13 SHA'BOURNE REGAL


ouch!, mark, you had a similar day to myself me thinks, a shocker!

anyones thinks its easy to pick a 'loser', better rethink that illusion (delusion?) right now

[AngryPixie]

I don't think turning a losing win bet system into a lay system always works. But keep going Mark as you know there will always be "accident" days. I'll just coming off a nasty two Saturdays, but yesterday was the best for some time.

Keep going

Pixie

[partypooper]

seems to me that it all comes down to "bottle" (should we say tenacity) I've thinking about that a lot while I've been hibernating in the Philippines for 3 months, it IS a skill that I have finally mastered, so it seems to opening many more opportunities.................. keep it coming guys!!

[Mark]

Morning all.
No, I haven't bolted leaving lots of gambling debts in my wake.
Had an unexpected 5 days in hospital from late on the previous Saturday.
My Betfair a/c tells me it was a losing day, not that I can remember much of it.
I will be testing another lay system from tomorrow.

By the way, did anyone else notice a very poor ride by a high profile jockey on a big drifter in the first at Randwick yesterday? Nothing said.......unbelievable.

Thanks to the one person who emailed me, concerned about my sudden disapperance.

[Merriguy]

Welcome back, Mark. Yes we all thought you had done a bolt :) Things were not that good on the English B/F scene for most of us, though Pixie seems to have lighted on an answer. Good to have you back.

Youngbuck is steaming along well on a very simple system. More power to him --- and you would be well advised to read his and Pixie's threads.

[michaelg]

Yes, welcome back, Mark.

Hoping you are in perfect health, and also hoping your new system will be successful.

Michael.

[AngryPixie]

Hi Mark

You've been missed. Hope all is well.

Did you manage to wrestle any cash off the nurses?

[Mark]

No such luck Pixie.
I'm ok Michael, not much left of my car though.

One week trial from today.
Using Maria's 'updated' price bands.
0-3.50 = 1%
3.55-4.60 = 0.8%
4.70-6.40 = 0.6%
6.60-10.00 = 0.4%
Bank = $2000

Don't lay 1st starters unless odds on.
Don't lay selections below.
Lay others up to 10.0.

S1 1-6-4
S3 2-6-4
S4 1-6
S5 12-4-6
S6 1-2-6
S7 2-10-6

M2 4-6-5
M3 1-2-4
M4 2-3-4
M5 1-2-10
M6 2-1-3
M7 3-8-1
M8 1-8

B2 5-8-7
B3 13-10-11
B4 5
B5 4-5
B6 4
B7 2

A1 6-3-7
A2 4-10-6
A4 1-4-5
A5 3-2-5
A6 7-9-8
A7 1-2
A8 9-5-2
A9 4-2-1

Pak
P1 9-1-3
P2 10-9-6
P3 6-8-3
P5 8-2-4
P6 1-7-3
P7 2
P8 2-3-1
P9 1-7

Trying to pick winners instead of losers.

[Mark]

Forgot to add.......lay the fav if it's not top pick.

[Mark]

What a horrible day!
A few really good results, but too many races where I think I had a pumpkin on when doing the form.

65 lays
15 accidents........at least 5 too many.
Total bets $820 for a loss of $60.40

Back tomorrow for more torture.

[Mark]

Today's torture.

PM1 1
PM2 1-3
PM3 7-6-1
PM4 1-9-7
PM5 2-1-4
PM6 5-3
PM7 4
PM8 3-5-2

T1 5-7-10
T2 1-3
T3 13-7
T4 1-7-6
T5 1-5-2
T6 11-13-7
T7 6-1
T8 11

[Mark]

For a while there I thought I was going to get a clean sweep. Did not lay a winner until PM6, then laid 3 in a row. All in all a very pleasing day.

40 Lays
3 Accidents

Turnover $456
Profit $244.20

2 days total
105 lays
18 accidents
t/o $1276
profit $183.80
14.4% on t/o or 9.19% increase on bank.
strike rate 82.85%

[Mark]

Day 3 of the trial.
Gold Coast, Newcastle, Ballarat & Cheltenham.

GC1 13-2
GC2 3-1
GC3 6
GC4 7-3
GC5 4-6
GC6 1-10-8
GC7 1-5-8
GC8 6-10

N1 1
N3 6-1-2
N4 2-7-4
N5 10-3-6
N6 3-2
N7 1-9-4
N8 14-1-9

V1 9-3-4-2
V3 1-2-6
V4 1-4-2
V5 1-3-5
V6 1-3-10
V7 6-8-1

C1 6-7
C2 3-4
C3 8-2
C4 5-9-10
C5 14-6-12
C6 3-2
C7 5-8-6
C8 4-1
C9 4-5-1

A repeat of yesterday would be nice.

[Mark]

On the other hand, a terrible day would finish it off.
This is far too volatile for me.

54 bets
16 accidents
t/o $768
loss $214.42

3 day total
159 lays
34 accidents
t/o $2044
loss $30.62

[Merriguy]

Yes, a few too many 'accidents' there Mark. Couldn't follow them all myself because of various restraints and was able to come out ahead in actual fact --- so thanks for that.

Actually it took me some time to work out exactly what you were doing (I'm pretty slow!); but once I got the hang of it I did O.K..

The idea is good --- the picks for winners were the weak part. According to my additions you only came up with the winner in your picks 10/76 times. Or, more accurately, 10/30 races. If you were able to improve on that wouldn't the return necessarily improve?

Another way of expressing this would be to say that in 20/30 races a horse outside the 'picks' came home. Presumably, most all of these have come from the group "not in the picks but below $10.00" which are what you were relying on. Improvement has to come there. The idea is O.K. the implementation of it is failing, don't you think :confused:

Thanks for all the work done!

[Mark]

Merriguy

A very poor day by anyone's standards.
Will give it another go today.

[Chrome Prince]

Mark,

Can I suggest that laying is a different technical propect than backing.
Too many people place too much importance on the horse rather than the price.

For example: If I lay a horse @ $3.00 and I could have had $2.40 about it, then suddenly price plays more of a role.

I know you have a price cut off and don't like leaving bets "in the wind" but you might benefit by setting your own price rather than having to take what's offered.

You may only get matched on half the horses, but your profit might double.

[Mark]

Thursday's throng of thingamy's.

H1 11-1-7
H2 8-4-7
H3 9-8-5
H4 3-1-2
H5 3-4-1
H6 6-2-8
H7 6-1-11
H8 4-6

T1 1-5
T2 6-1-3
T3 2-1
T5 2-7-5
T6 1-6-3
T7 2
T8 4-6

B3 7-2-3
B4 1-5-3
B5 15-8-11
B6 7-1
B7 1
B8 5-2-3

[Mark]

Small profit today, but this is still not ideal.
Out of 20 races I had the winner in 16 of them so the risk reward ratio is out somewhere.

33 lays
5 accidents
t/o $388
profit $57

4 day total
192 lays
39 accidents or 79.6% strike rate.
t/o $2432
profit $26.38 or 1.08%

ps there was no TR8, I accidentally copied HR8.

[Mark]

Fifth day is Five meeting Freaky Friday. I'm not looking at MV tonight.

Q1 2-4-1
Q2 2-1-3
Q3 5-3-1
Q4 6
Q5 2-1-7
Q6 2
Q7 3-5-2
Q8 1-3-7

N1 10-6-7
N2 10-7-4
N3 1-3-6
N4 2-6-3
N5 1-5-3
N6 5-7-8
N7 1-7
N8 5-10-7

V1 11-7-3
V2 8-14
V3 14-3-1
V4 5-3-2
V5 7-2
V6 4-1
V7 7-1-14
V8 3

A1 10-8-1
A2 ---
A3 3-1
A4 4-6
A5 6-4-9
A6 6-1
A7 3-1-6

C1 6
C2 8-5-7
C3 3-1
C4 2-8
C5 1-5-3
C6 10-8-3
C7 2-3
C8 3-1
C9 7-2-3

If you believe in patterns, then today should be a loser.

[Mark]

So much for patterns.
Today was FAT. The type of day that I was hoping this system was capable of.

70 lays
6 accidents or 91.4% strike rate
T/O $824
Profit $419.80

5 day total
262 lays
45 accidents, 82.8% strike rate
T/O $3256
Profit $446.18, or 13.7%

Bank increased by 22.3%

[AngryPixie]

Great job Mark.

[Mark]

Cheers Pixie, I'll be posting again tomorrow then that's it, too much form to do & not enough time.

[Merriguy]

Yes, well done, Mark.

I could not keep up the pace either --- and I wasn't trying to do the form!! There has to be a way of narrowing things down more.

Still, interesting.