Chrome's Lay System Test

[Chrome Prince]

Here's my lay system test.
Staking to be level.
Will use Betfair final price less 5% commission to calculate.
Only horses which are highly fancied (first or second favourite on IAS fixed prices, take the opening fixed price, in the event of a tie for second, lay both.)
Double the bet when the horse is likely to be evens or less.
(Again go by IAS fixed prices for a guide).
$1,000 Bank.
$10 investment per lay.

WERRIBEE
Race 03 02 Numero Douze
Race 05 05 Sovereign Miss
Race 06 09 Galeisha
10 Miss Eileen

QUEANBEYAN
Race 01 05 BROLGA
12 SHE'S A GOLDIGGER
13 STARDALE

Race 03 18 SPORTS WATCH
Race 06 06 A LITTLE RUSTY

RANDWICK
Race 02 01 TRICORY
Race 04 08 NOW NOW
Race 05 04 AENEAS
Race 06 04 AMALIENBORG
08 SUMEHRA

GAWLER
Race 01 09 Ideal Time
Race 03 14 Staaralpyn
Race 07 03 Happy Larry

EAGLE FARM
Race 03 09 Mr Mojito
11 Whatdoumeanbythat
Race 04 02 Blarney Wish
07 Danlass
Race 06 01 Mirimba Bay
Race 07 02 Monaseeci

[michaelg]

Interesting method, Chrome - you are betting against the fancied horses in Mark Read's market, he's reputed to be a very good judge??? Maybe they end up being underlays?

Also, are the horses you nominated today to be included in the method, because as far as I know, M.R. hadn't framed his market when you listed them early this morning, some of them are not highly favoured in the pre-post market. Or are they to be layed independently?

Let's hope for success.
Michael.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Michael,

Overall, Mark Read is one of the very best judges around.
Backing his favourites at his opening price almost breaks even, so he even beats the crowd. I would also suspect that betting his opening favourite when it is against the tote favourite might make a profit, but I can't confirm it.
The reason I'm laying these horses in particular is that they have a gear change apart from blinkers or similar headgear.
The horses listed only qualify if first or second favourite in Mark Reads openers, and I noticed that Queanbeyan has no openers, so none of them will qualify.
There will be days where none qualify.

[Chrome Prince]

WERRIBEE
Race 03 02 Numero Douze SCR
Race 05 05 Sovereign Miss NQ
Race 06 09 Galeisha SCR
10 Miss Eileen NQ

QUEANBEYAN
Race 01 05 BROLGA NQ
12 SHE'S A GOLDIGGER NQ
13 STARDALE NQ

Race 03 18 SPORTS WATCH NQ
Race 06 06 A LITTLE RUSTY NQ

RANDWICK
Race 02 01 TRICORY NQ
Race 04 08 NOW NOW NQ
Race 05 04 AENEAS NQ
Race 06 04 AMALIENBORG QUALIFIED WON (I lost) With a tongue tie first time :eek:
08 SUMEHRA NQ

GAWLER
Race 01 09 Ideal Time NQ
Race 03 14 Staaralpyn NQ
Race 07 03 Happy Larry NQ

EAGLE FARM
Race 03 09 Mr Mojito NQ
11 Whatdoumeanbythat NQ
Race 04 02 Blarney Wish NQ
07 Danlass NQ
Race 06 01 Mirimba Bay NQ
Race 07 02 Monaseeci NQ

Just one qualifier, which I lost on - of the one's that didn't qualify, just one winner @$5.50 (loss), so overall would make a killing, but it's not viable to lay them all with some @ huge odds, too much exposure for potential wipeout in one hit.