THE $4 A MINUTE BEFORE SYSTEM

[kiwi]

One of the guys had this system which went like a treat for over two weeks.....won every day he tried it. Then last Wednesday, over it went in a big way.

Any race, any venue.

One minute from start time, select runner paying closest to $4 the win.

If favourite, move to the second favourite.

Betting is win only, OR one win x three for the place.

Only other rule, get ahead a reasonable amount, get out.

There may be filters that can improve this plan.Any ideas?

[crash]

Ignoring the first 3 races at any meeting will definitely improve things.

[kiwi]

I agree Crash, they are usually won by favourites or rank outsiders.

A starting point could be the " bet only the last 4 races"

A definite no-no rain affected tracks

[kiwi]

Using r4 onwards first result:

Sale R4

14 STAGERUSH 4.80 2.00

Closest horse to $4 and not fav.

R5 8 Road Trip is the next selection at the moment.

[Mr. Logic]

[QUOTE=kiwi]Only other rule, get ahead a reasonable amount, get out. [QUOTE]

I have trouble understanding this rule, which is so common. To me it is just not logical. It seems to me as if it is based on the assumption that the past results on that one betting day will influence the future results. That seems illogical.

To also put it another way, suppose you do "get ahead a reasonable amount" and then "get out" and then you see loser after loser with the system on that day which would have more than wiped out your profits from earlier in the day. Sure you have made a nice profit that day and you have kept it. Well done.

But what is to stop on another betting day the "loser after loser with the system" from starting from your first bet?

That is why I just can't work out the logic of "get ahead a reasonable amount, get out."

It reminds me of the casino dealer who effectively told me that his casino could go bust! Not in such words, but he said, "If only the punters quit when they are ahead, they'd leave here as winners. They are always ahead at some stage."

I also couldn't work out the logic of that. I mean it is not uncommon to start losing and keep losing. After all, the casino's games mathematically favour the casino, not the player.

[crash]

Getting out while ahead is also known as 'I can read the future' system.

[Chrome Prince]

It reminds me of the casino dealer who effectively told me that his casino could go bust! Not in such words, but he said, "If only the punters quit when they are ahead, they'd leave here as winners. They are always ahead at some stage."


This is actually true.
Because there were times at Crown, I was 15k up and I always started with the same bank of $400.
When you compound a winning streak, the house has to win in the end, but if you get out before the end you have to win. Knowing when to get out is the trick, being able to read a bad deck or when things start to turn against you.
Of course there were many days, I never caught a break and lost the $400 in half an hour, but when the run came I compounded my winnings and it was always better than the past 20 banks I lost.
When you keep going the house percentage always gets you.

I only stopped because they barred me, they didn't like my approach :eek:

I had pit bosses. Government inspectors, dealers, all trying to put me off my game by offering "incentives" or chit chatting (interrogating me) while trying to play. In the end it became impossible and I got barred for telling a pit boss to go away.

[kiwi]

We all have great days where nothing goes wrong and winning is easy but these are few and far between.

I set goals and when they are reached for the day i start again with a new target set the next day.

I limit myself to no more than four daily bets.

Keep achieving small targets and they accumulate.

Many days when i was much younger any early winnings would be blown by days end, particularly when on the drink while punting.

Some of you are obviously far more luckier than me and can keep winning race after race.:)

[crash]

I can't see any difference in the next betable race starting in 20min or 3 days. They are not linked in any way. Not by luck, profit or loss, chance or anything else.

Sound punting logic and practice would be to choose the races from a card worth betting in [there will be only 3 to 4 at most] and as long as a reasonable SP price is available, bet personal selections in those races win or lose.
If losing, reconsider the SP prices being accepted and/or selection process.

[kiwi]

EXCELLENT POINTS CRASH


Using the bare rules and starting point last 4 races each venue (Unitab prices)

Doomben R7 h4 $4.50 & $2.50 quit profit $1.50

Warwick Farm r6 h8 $5.10 & $1.90 quit profit $3.10

Sandown No winner

Mt Gambier r8 h8 $5.10 & $1.90 quit profit $1.10

Ascot r7 h3 $4.40 & $1.60 quit profit $3.40

Quite a good profit available on all but Sandown.Which is on my no betting list multiple times, as a course i can not win at.