Caul Sat 10th March, 3 GROUP 1's.

[Real Deal]

SEPPELT WINES NEWMARKET HANDICAP 1200 M
Of $1005000 Of $1000000 and $5000 trophy. 1st $600000 and trophy of $5000, 2nd $180000, 3rd $90000, 4th $45000, 5th $25000, 6th $20000, 7th $20000, 8th $20000. (GROUP 1). No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 18+3 EM
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No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen RTG
1 DANCE HERO Gai Waterhouse S Baster 6 57 (112)
2 MISS ANDRETTI Lee Freedman C Newitt 11 56 (115)
3 UNDUE Shane Clarke S W Arnold 5 55.5 (109)
4 GOLD EDITION Ron Maund D Oliver 7 52.5 (110)
5 MAGNUS Peter G Moody D Dunn 2 52.5 (103)
6 SHADOWAYS Gwenda Johnstone B Shinn 9 52 (102.5)
7 SWICK (NZ) Bart Cummings L Nolen 10 52 (102)
8 TESBURY JACK Julie Scott D Gauci 8 52 (102)
9 ANY SUGGESTION Paul Richards J Benbow 4 51.5 (101)
10 ELECTRIC GENERAL David Hayes C Williams 3 51.5 (101)
11 CANDY MAN Kevin Milham D Moor 1 51 (92)
12 SOLEIL John Ledger M Pegus 12 51 (100)

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7-3.55 CADBURY GUINEAS 1600 M
Of $755000 Of $750000 and $5000 trophy. 1st $450000 and trophy of $5000, 2nd $135000, 3rd $67500, 4th $33750, 5th $18750, 6th $15000, 7th $15000, 8th $15000. For Three-Years-Old. Set Weights. (GROUP 1). This race carries a SUPER VOBIS Nominators Bonus of $10,000 for qualified horses. No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 16+3 EM
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No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen RTG
1 EFFICIENT (NZ) Graeme Rogerson C Newitt 3 55.5 (112)
2 CHURCHILL DOWNS David Hayes D Dunn 4 55.5 (98)
3 JOKERS WILD (NZ) Michael Moroney S W Arnold 8 55.5 (102)
4 CASINO PRINCE Anthony Cummings D Oliver 1 55.5 (96)
5 HARADASUN Tony Vasil N Rawiller 7 55.5 (98)
6 WORDSMITH Shane Nichols B Shinn 5 55.5 (94)
7 GENERAL ALBERT Adrian McGregor S Hyland 9 55.5 (83)
8 AREZZO Pat Carey 2 55.5 (63)
9 MISS FINLAND David Hayes C Williams 6 53 (113)

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8-4.35 DARLEY AUSTRALIAN CUP 2000 M
Of $1005000 Of $1000000 and $5000 trophy. 1st $600000 and trophy of $5000, 2nd $180000, 3rd $90000, 4th $45000, 5th $25000, 6th $20000, 7th $20000, 8th $20000. Standard Weight for Age. (GROUP 1). No allowances for apprentices. Field Limit: 16+3 EM
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No. Horse Trainer Jockey Barr Wgt Pen RTG
1 TAWQEET (USA) David Hayes D Dunn 9 59 (114)
2 HONOR IN WAR (USA) Danny O'Brien Steven King 4 59 (107)
3 EL SEGUNDO (NZ) Colin Little D Oliver 13 59 (116)
4 LAD OF THE MANOR (NZ) Roger Hoysted N Rawiller 1 59 (113)
5 CASUAL PASS Mathew Ellerton D Gauci 10 59 (111)
6 NICONERO David Hayes B Rawiller 7 59 (110)
7 POMPEII RULER Mick Price C Newitt 2 59 (112)
8 MAYBE BETTER Brian Mayfield-Smith S W Arnold 5 59 (109)
9 BLUTIGEROO Colin Little 11 59 (104)
10 POLAR BEAR (GB) David Hayes C Williams 6 59 (104)
11 MARASCO Fred Kersley 3 59 (108)
12 CAPE NORTH (NZ) Fred Kersley 12 59 (98)
13 AQUA D'AMORE Gai Waterhouse S Baster 8 56.5 (112)


Very Interested to get you guys thoughts. Tough 3 races.

[Real Deal]

I have done something i don't normally do and taken the early price. I found $5 about El Segundo and jumped at it-According to my early ratings i was prepared to take 4.50 in this field (considering nearly the same field he beat all cup runners home in Cox Plate) but when i saw $5 i couldn't resist. Still have no idea who is going to win but have purely backed El Segundo based on price.

The newmarket is a very tricky race.
Do you take Gold Edition or Dance Hero to lead all the way or do you leave them alone as they will most probably run each other into the ground?
Do you take Magnus and Miss Andretti to finish over the top of the filly after just camping off them?
Do you take Undue and shadoways who will be coming from the rear off a very solid tempo?

Soo many questions so few answers. Once again my betting will be dictated by the market but not real keen to part with much hard earned here.


The Guineas.
On face value it looks to be a race in 2. Haradasun and Miss Finland. Whilst Miss Finland did it easy against the girls and then haradasun came out and couldn't beat catechuchu, i think the closing sectionals haradasun ran will see him overcome the filly. Everyone knows the early jogging did not give haradasun a chance to win but the way he ran home will hold him in very good sted in this race. Efficient is the mystery horse-up another 200m on last start but i wasn't to impressed with the way he found the line, They will never do this but i would love rodd to ride him a bit more forward and "go for home" at the 800m and turn it into a true staying race, this would give efficient his best chance i think-no way will he be able to outsprint the top 2 in the final straight.


In wrapping up i wouldn't be suprised to see another "roman arch" on the weekend-just have a feeling a bolter is going to win one of these races(praying its not the cup with my $$$ already on).

Thoughts?

[Chuck]

At the moment i think Miss Andretti is just in a different league to these. as you mentioned i think dance hero and gold edition may cut each other up as i think if they want to win they both need to lead. Swick is the one to watch for it and shadoways for value

i don't think barrier is a huge problem for el segundo. aqua d'amore will be in the finish as usual probably a place. maybe better, lad of the manor and honor in war should be good value.

for the guineas is a race in 2 and very tough to split them. i'll have haradsun just on top on miss finland at this stage, but it might change

[woodyman]

I am hoping Miss Andretti has a big one!! Have been onboard since the beginning and she has treated me well so far.....touch wood.... lol

Anyone think Marasco has a hope?

Is anyone going?

First time im going to caufield and cant wait!!

[maverick1993]

Newmarket
Cant figure out which way to go here...better off Laying GE at 4s ,,,i really cant see her racing along side the menacing Dance Hero and forging clear at any stage,,just won't happen,,,she needs the lead by herself and wont get it here at all...Tesbury Jack has the tendancy at times to over race and might drag himself to the front and Soliel if the engine doesnt stall at the starting blocks could challenge,,,seems to set it up for Miss A, Undue and Shadoways
BetF$air the way to go
Aussie Cup
Interesting with Cape North here,,will this horse lead at a true tempo and try and set something up for stable mate Marasco ?? hope not as it will play into ES alot more...either way Pompeii Ruler the horse who'll be right in the firing line when the whips are cracking the one to beat..
i like the exacta with ES ....casual pass is interesting ,,still working on this race,,
Guineas
Miss F just looks to good here,,,i like Hara but he does have his share of probs (glue on shoes) no value this race,,but a good anchor for the quaddies

Good Luck all :)

[Spartacus]

nobody has mentioned any suggestion.

am i missing something here? as much as i love the ol' girl, he should beat miss andretti at the weights. he is flying and i'll be having a little bit on him e/w and have already taken magnus and shadoways a coupla weeks ago. i don't think she can win this time. the last time she lost was in the salinger - a hcp. shadoways also meets her better for beating her in that one.

if el segundo can get a fast pace i think he can bounce back. if there's no pace casual pass may be the one.

go the 'sun'! no foot problems this week and he'll be too strong (i think!)
this one definitely my guess of the three.
best bet: any suggestion e/w

[Real Deal]

Spatacus,

Have definately had a good look at the fields and weights, here is what i have jotted down-worthless or not suppose its up to the reader.

Comparing what they carried in Australia Stakes to tomorrow:
Miss Andretti 0
Any Suggestion -7Kg

The margin was 1 1/4 len. (3.3L same weights in lightning)

That being said and the reason i am going to stick with Miss Andretti-she ran 1.10.23 for the 1200m at the valley and with the same weight over 1000m broke track record. I am prepared to put it on the line and say regardless of weight if miss andretti can repeat her run from the Australia Stakes she goes too fast for any horse in this field to beat her regardless of weight.

[crash]

The Newmarket is a tough one which will obviously have the pace on. At 1200m Gold Edition and Miss Andretti are hardly going to run themselves into the ground. One of them will win. GE has the edge I think but is a question mark at the track. A big surprise might be Bart's Back-marker, Swick who has luckily scored alley 10 for a big late dash. I can't see him pulling it off though.

Only one leader in the Aust. Cup, Casual Pass and if Gauci can control the slow pace El Segundo is going to have the same trouble as last week [no pace] and won't catch Casual Pass. Tawqeet showed something last start and might be ready to pull off a boil-over like it's last G1 win [2nd up that time too] in Syd. at 16/1. Might be a good ew bet.

[jefff_12]

I think you need to think about it simply.

Miss Andretti, best sprinter in Australia. I would back GE if it were down the straight, but it won't be easy out in front.

El Sugundo, best horse in Australia. Ignore its last run (even though it wasnt bad), we all know he can sprint of a slow pace.

Miss Finland, this is a though race though. She is more proven and she is a champion and she will again prove that on Saturday.

[goldmember]

The Newmarket is the hardest of the 3, going a little wide,think Dance Hero can win from Magnus and Electric General.


I thought Haradasun would beat Miss Finland ,then i read some posts about the gue on shoes, what is so bad about them as a have no idea!


Either way i think Pompeii Ruler will get the run of the race in 3rd or 4th spot, if the speed is o'k he will settle better than his last 2 runs,maybe Maybe Better, Tawqeet and Aqua D'Amore behind him, just dont know about Marasco and while i always back EL Sugundo, i wouldnt go near him tomorrow.

[Stix]

Agree with you Goldmember

* Magnus could be the blow out chance.
* Pompeii Ruler, should win this, with Honour in War being the knockout chance
* As the top three (Efficient, Haradasun, Miss F) will be the only three wanted, thought might go the underated (as you would be against this lot) Wordsmith, besides he's in my stable http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/wink.gif

Good Luck...

[crash]

CADBURY GUINEAS 1600 M

Miss Finland is yet to beat the males at this level and has had her chances to do so and done badly. She is looking for futher too I think.

I like the Kiwi Jokers Wild in this. Will run on the pace or maybe even lead. Set for this and can run the distance in very low 1:35's. There might be a couple pretenders [Miss Finland though is misplaced, not a pretender] here at stupid odds and I'll take the money offered for Jokers Wild ew which on paper anyway has about 1sec. up on anything in this.