Beat the Donkey

[AngryPixie]

Hi

I've revised some of the "rules" from the previous thread "The Daily Donkey", and have included the selections I would have posted over the weekend. Take these with however big a grain of salt you wish :) Basically I'm now laying all selections.

I'm attempting to take a subset of the lay selections from the Daily Donkey website (w w w dot dailydonkey dot com), with the objective of returning a greater strike rate, and POT. I'll keep this going till the end of this month, and will try to post weekend selections.

I'll be using the Racing Index (w w w dot racing-index dot com) as the source of results.

Here's our selections and results to date:

20070306-0130 Newcastle - Neptune Joly ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0130 Newcastle - Flake ... WON -4.50
20070306-0200 Newcastle - Green Ideal ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0230 Newcastle - Alfabet Souk ... LOST +1.00
20070306-0330 Newcastle - Crackadee ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0210 Fontwell - Court Alliance ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0255 Catterick - Ask Bobby ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0315 Fontwell - Travelling Light ... LOST + 1.00
20070307-0315 Fontwell - Herecomestanley ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0325 Catterick - Truly Fruitful ... LOST +1.00
20070307-0345 Fontwell - Ouragan Lagrange ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0240 Wincanton - Wotashambles ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0315 Wincanton - Trading Up ... LOST +1.00
20070308-0425 Wincanton - Le Rochelais ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0100 Ayr - Wensley Blue ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0200 Ayr - Strong Resolve ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0235 Ayr - Or De Grugy ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0310 Ayr - Reckless Venture ... LOST +1.00
20070309-0345 Ayr - Something Silver ... WON -3.33
20070309-0420 Ayr - Daffi ... LOST +1.00
20070310-0255 Ayr - Jimmy Bond ... LOST +1.00
20070310-0330 Ayr - Mr Preacher Man ... LOST +1.00
20070310-0355 Sandown - Stan ... LOST +1.00
20070310-0400 Ayr - Almire Du Lia ... LOST +1.00
20070310-0420 Chepstow - Whitford Don ... WON -6.00
20070311-0110 Warwick - Nick's Choice ... LOST +1.00
20070311-0150 Market Rasen - First Feerie ... LOST +1.00
20070311-0220 Market Rasen - Aqua Pura ... LOST +1.00
20070311-0250 Market Rasen - Golden Oak ... LOST +1.00
20070311-0350 Market Rasen - Dance The Mambo ... LOST +1.00
20070311-0420 Market Rasen - Kayceecee ... LOST +1.00
20070312-0210 Taunton - Lady Wilde ... LOST +1.00
20070312-0230 Plumpton - Bright Eagle ... LOST +1.00
20070312-0240 Taunton - Sitting Duck ... LOST +1.00
20070312-0240 Taunton - Orsus ... LOST +1.00
20070312-0330 Plumpton - Malmo Boy ... WON -6.00
20070312-0410 Taunton - Shernatra ... LOST +1.00
20070313-0300 Cheltenham - Little Brick ... LOST +1.00
20070313-0315 Sedgefield - Emerald Destiny ... LOST +1.00
20070313-0315 Sedgefield - Dead Mans Dante ... LOST +1.00
20070313-0340 Cheltenham - Heads Onthe Ground ... WON -2.50
20070313-0340 Cheltenham - Spot Thedifference ... LOST +1.00
20070313-0420 Cheltenham - Gaspara ... WON -4.50

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 13th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 43
Successful Selections: 37
Strike Rate: 86.04%
Total Profit: +10.17 units
POT: 23.65%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 248
Successful Selections: 182
Strike Rate: 73.39%
Total Profit: +3.41 units
POT: 1.38%

[AngryPixie]

Remember these are lays. ;)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070314-0200 Huntingdon - Ballykiln
20070314-0240 Huntingdon - King's Thought
20070314-0240 Huntingdon - Bawn Boy
20070314-0325 Huntingdon - Topless
20070314-0325 Huntingdon - Heart Strings
20070314-0405 Huntingdon - Glimmer Of Light

Good luck

[Merriguy]

:) :)

Well done:) :)

Though some of those picks were a little on the high side!

[Chrome Prince]

Well done AP.

Perhaps we could even look at horses that continually go around at short odds and fail.
That horse Little Brick has been a real money spinner for me ;)

[Mark]

How can you lose with something called Beat the Donkey !!!

[stugots]

How can you lose with something called Beat the Donkey !!!


this isnt like 'spanking the monkey' i hope

[AngryPixie]

A successful night for all. The Donkey's did very well, and we were lucky enough to choose correctly also. :)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070314-0200 Huntingdon - Ballykiln ... LOST +1.00
20070314-0240 Huntingdon - King's Thought ... LOST +1.00
20070314-0240 Huntingdon - Bawn Boy ... LOST +1.00
20070314-0325 Huntingdon - Topless ... LOST +1.00
20070314-0325 Huntingdon - Heart Strings ... LOST +1.00
20070314-0405 Huntingdon - Glimmer Of Light ... LOST +1.00


===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 14th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 49
Successful Selections: 43
Strike Rate: 87.75%
Total Profit: +16.17 units
POT: 33.00%

Daily Donkey:*
===
Number of Selections: 264
Successful Selections: 198
Strike Rate: 75.00%
Total Profit: +9.50 units
POT: 3.60%

*I'd originally hoped to use the Racing-Index proofing pages to keep track of the Daily Donkey's results. This morning I've noticed some large discrepancy's between the results posted by the Daily Donkey site, and those posted on the Racing-Index site. In a nutshell the Daily Donkey is doing slightly better than the Racing-Index give them credit for. To this end I've created a simple spreadsheet and will record all the results myself using the Racing Post results as a reference. These are those.

[AngryPixie]

How can you lose with something called Beat the Donkey !!!

this isnt like 'spanking the monkey' i hope

Above the belt please :p

[AngryPixie]

Well done:) :)

Though some of those picks were a little on the high side!

Thanks Merriguy. Sadly I don't have as much influence over the SP's as I'd like.

I layed Ballykiln quite early after posting my selections and it did get the blows from there. You decide what you want to do though. I'm laying to prices, so don't get on everyone of the selections. I'm hoping our stats can stay about the same or better than where they are. I think it would be possible to lay them all and still have a profit then. Remember that the SP's used in compile the results are the official (above 100%) ones, and do not take commission into account.

Hope your getting some sleep :)

[AngryPixie]

Well done AP.

Perhaps we could even look at horses that continually go around at short odds and fail.
That horse Little Brick has been a real money spinner for me ;)

Chrome

I'm not that familiar with UK racing but have noticed how quickly some horses back-up. Sometimes the next day! As you say there must be quite a few that regularly just make up the numbers. Good idea, I'll try to look out for them.

[AngryPixie]

Quite a busy night tonight. Expect one or two accidents. Best of luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070315-0100 Cheltenham - King Revo
20070315-0115 Hexham - Westgrove Berry
20070315-0135 Cheltenham - Monet's Garden
20070315-0215 Cheltenham - Black Jack Ketchum
20070315-0300 Cheltenham - Opera Mundi
20070315-0315 Hexham - Supreme Breeze
20070315-0355 Hexham - Rebelle
20070315-0430 Hexham - Mister Magnum
20070315-0430 Hexham - Baligrundle

[Merriguy]

8/9 ---- should be pleased with that :) How do you pick so unerringly those who are going to fall, unseat the rider, be pulled up?

[AngryPixie]

8/9 ---- should be pleased with that :) How do you pick so unerringly those who are going to fall, unseat the rider, be pulled up?

Merriguy

Yes pleased to get out with a profit. Thought Monet's Garden and Black Jack Ketchum were our biggest concerns, but they both put in a fizzer. By all accounts Black Jack is pretty over-hyped anyway. Glad we missed the 8-1 winner at Southwell! You'd have done pretty well laying all the Donkeys as they only had four accidents for the night.

Results posted later today.

[AngryPixie]

Not a bad night.

From today I'll start deducting the Betfair commission at a rate of 5%. Whilst not perfect it does give a better perspective on the relative Pixie and Donkey positions. I mean that in a clean way ;)

Hope your getting some enjoyment from this. Is anybody actually laying these other than me?

Date-Time Course - Name
20070315-0100 Cheltenham - King Revo ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0115 Hexham - Westgrove Berry ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0135 Cheltenham - Monet's Garden ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0215 Cheltenham - Black Jack Ketchum ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0300 Cheltenham - Opera Mundi ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0315 Hexham - Supreme Breeze ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0355 Hexham - Rebelle ... WON -5.50
20070315-0430 Hexham - Mister Magnum ... LOST +1.00
20070315-0430 Hexham - Baligrundle ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 15th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 58
Successful Selections: 51
Strike Rate: 87.93%
Profit: +18.67 units
Commission @ 5%: -2.55 units
Net Profit: +16.12 units
Net POT: 27.79%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 292
Successful Selections: 222
Strike Rate: 76.02%
Profit: +15.75 units
Commission @ 5%: -11.10 units
Net Profit: +4.65 units
Net POT: 1.59%

[salty]

I am Angry Pixie - last night was great - thankyou

[AngryPixie]

last night was great - thankyou

Don't tell Mrs Salty ;)

That's great. All those extra coffee's are worth it then.

[salty]

have to let you into a little secret- I am Mrs.Salty.

[AngryPixie]

have to let you into a little secret- I am Mrs.Salty.

Last night was good for me too then. ;)

[AngryPixie]

Salty

Interested to know how you're staking these.

[salty]

I am using Maria's staking method, mainly because I'm more comfortable with the lesser exposure when the prices get up a bit high.

[Mark]

Pixie

May I suggest something like Maria.
Set aside a bank, and bet accordingly.
I'm sure you'll make it pay.

[AngryPixie]

Mark

Yes I think your right. I'm just reading over her thread again whilst waiting for all the Donkeys to appear. Should do ok if we couple Maria with some semi-aggressive Chrome type pricing.

[AngryPixie]

Only a handful of lays tonight.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070316-0150 Fakenham - Real Chief
20070316-0230 Fakenham - Cool Roxy
20070316-0300 Cheltenham - Whyso Mayo
20070316-0315 Fakenham - Quid Pro Quo

[AngryPixie]

Challenging night. The full Donkey posted a negative return, and we were lucky to break even with our subset of selections.

Last night provided a good example of the benefits offered by laying to prices. I'd priced the four selection like this

Real Chief $7.00
Cool Roxy $3.75
Whyso Mayo $3.70
Quid Pro Quo $5.10

I couldn't get matched on Real Chief or Cool Roxy so I finished with two lays for two successful results. :)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070316-0150 Fakenham - Real Chief ... LOST +1.00
20070316-0230 Fakenham - Cool Roxy ... WON -3.00
20070316-0300 Cheltenham - Whyso Mayo ... LOST +1.00
20070316-0315 Fakenham - Quid Pro Quo ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 16th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 62
Successful Selections: 54
Strike Rate: 87.09%
Profit: +18.67 units
Commission @ 5%: -2.70 units
Net Profit: +15.97 units
Net POT: 25.75%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 322
Successful Selections: 243
Strike Rate: 75.46%
Profit: +12.91 units
Commission @ 5%: -12.15 units
Net Profit: +0.76 units
Net POT: 0.23%

[AngryPixie]

A bit more action tonight. Best of luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070317-0110 Uttoxeter - Boyastara
20070317-0140 Uttoxeter - Glasker Mill
20070317-0200 Newcastle - Spirit Calling
20070317-0235 Wetherby - Loulou Nivernais
20070317-0250 Uttoxeter - Nenuphar Collonges
20070317-0335 Newcastle - Sunisa
20070317-0350 Uttoxeter - Alfadora
20070317-0405 Newcastle - Auntie Kathleen
20070317-0420 Uttoxeter - Bertie May

[AngryPixie]

Will post results later but at a glance it looks like we've had a bomb go off.

I only seem to have been matched on two selections (out of nine!!)

Boyastara @ $6.60 (SP 7/1) :)
Alfadora @ $4.40 (SP 3/1) :)

Auntie Kathleen was a non-runner, and Nenuphar Collonges (SP 5/1) and Bertie May (SP 7/1) both won :( :(

I knew there was a reason to take the weekends off.

[Merriguy]

Actually,P., you got 6/8 right. Not great --- but not too bad.

Whether or not you got matched is something only you would know.

[AngryPixie]

Whether or not you got matched is something only you would know.

Merriguy your right and I'm not comfortable making such statements without being able to support them. The attached JPG's may help. Stake and Profit/Loss have been erased. I'm literally only laying for penny's until I'll sure we're on to something.

Talk to you later.

[AngryPixie]

Last night went nicely pear shaped. The full Donkey posted a nice profit for the night. We put in a stinker. Onwards and upwards from here. Let's hope.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070317-0110 Uttoxeter - Boyastara ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0140 Uttoxeter - Glasker Mill ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0200 Newcastle - Spirit Calling ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0235 Wetherby - Loulou Nivernais ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0250 Uttoxeter - Nenuphar Collonges ... WON -5.00
20070317-0335 Newcastle - Sunisa ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0350 Uttoxeter - Alfadora ... LOST +1.00
20070317-0405 Newcastle - Auntie Kathleen ... NON RUNNER
20070317-0420 Uttoxeter - Bertie May ... WON -7.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 17th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 70
Successful Selections: 60
Strike Rate: 85.71%
Profit: +12.67 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.00 units
Net Profit: +9.97 units
Net POT: 14.24%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 370
Successful Selections: 282
Strike Rate: 76.21%
Profit: +25.69 units
Commission @ 5%: -14.10 units
Net Profit: +11.59 units
Net POT: 3.13%

[AngryPixie]

Last week of this thread.

A few too many selections for my comfort tonight, but let's take a swing anyway. Laying to prices will be your friend.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070318-0100 Carlisle - Euro American
20070318-0120 Fontwell - Rockwithacaveman
20070318-0120 Fontwell - Storm Prince
20070318-0130 Carlisle - Cavers Glen
20070318-0130 Carlisle - Ocarina
20070318-0330 Fontwell - Notanotherdonkey
20070318-0330 Fontwell - Precious Bane
20070318-0430 Fontwell - River Amora
20070318-0430 Fontwell - Lorrelini
20070318-0430 Fontwell - Just Muckin Around

[AngryPixie]

Almost recouped all of the previous nights "accidents". Hard to get on some as they started a little long.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070318-0100 Carlisle - Euro American ... WON -3.50
20070318-0120 Fontwell - Rockwithacaveman ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0120 Fontwell - Storm Prince ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0130 Carlisle - Cavers Glen ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0130 Carlisle - Ocarina ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0330 Fontwell - Notanotherdonkey ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0330 Fontwell - Precious Bane ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0430 Fontwell - River Amora ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0430 Fontwell - Lorrelini ... LOST +1.00
20070318-0430 Fontwell - Just Muckin Around ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 18th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 80
Successful Selections: 69
Strike Rate: 86.25%
Profit: +18.17 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.45 units
Net Profit: +14.72 units
Net POT: 18.40%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 398
Successful Selections: 304
Strike Rate: 76.38%
Profit: +33.58 units
Commission @ 5%: -18.38 units
Net Profit: +15.20 units
Net POT: 3.81%

[Merriguy]

Whether or not you got matched is something only you would know.Didn't say that to be critical. Just stating the obvious I guess!!

You did well last night.

I went to bed. Had 'walked the Bridge' (wonder how many forumites were there too?) and was pretty tired. Had had a long day even before that.

Keep on thinking about Maria's ideas. I am certain that she said that you had to average something like 85% to make a success of it --- using her suggested betting 'bands'. You are managing that O.K.. You would get a lot more bets in that way?!?!

P.S. Very impressed by the thumbnails. Will have to give us all a lesson on how to do them one day http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/smile.gif

[AngryPixie]

Didn't say that to be critical. Just stating the obvious I guess!!

Merriguy, I didn't think you were being critical. :)

I work in an environment where peer review is standard and expected practice. Where sweeping statements need to be supported by hard won data, and where everyone has a theory that they're sure is better than your's. You know, kind of what it's like around here ;)

Keep on thinking about Maria's ideas. I am certain that she said that you had to average something like 85% to make a success of it

Yes I read this in Maria's thread too. I've also read it somewhere else where the guy provided a neat little equation as to why all lay methods should aim for at least 85% strike rate. Wish I'd have saved it because I've completely forgotton where it's found.

PS: I was a week ahead of myself when I said last night this thread had a week to go. I'll be finishing the thread on March 31st, and will go loud with the method from April 1st onwards. Something appeals to me about starting things on April Fool's Day.

PPS: JPG's by SnagIT. An absolute must have. http://www.techsmith.com/snagit.asp

[AngryPixie]

Good luck :)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070319-0100 Wincanton- Shankly Bond
20070319-0130 Wincanton- High Calibre
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Nortonthorpe Lad
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Only Words
20070319-0300 Wincanton - Petit Lord
20070319-0310 Market Rasen - Kercabellec

[Merriguy]

5/6 --- not bad! It is when one bad pick wipes your winnings that this laying caper makes me mad.

Thanks for the Snagit lead. Appreciated.

[AngryPixie]

Small profit overnight. Full Daily Donkey doing very well at the moment but above average so beware. Looking for an all green day from us soon.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070319-0100 Wincanton- Shankly Bond ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0130 Wincanton- High Calibre ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Nortonthorpe Lad ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0140 Market Rasen - Only Words ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0300 Wincanton - Petit Lord ... LOST +1.00
20070319-0310 Market Rasen - Kercabellec ... WON -4.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 19th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 86
Successful Selections: 74
Strike Rate: 86.04%
Profit: +19.17 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.70 units
Net Profit: +15.47 units
Net POT: 17.98%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 436
Successful Selections: 333
Strike Rate: 76.37%
Profit: +38.70 units*
Commission @ 5%: -16.65 units*
Net Profit: +22.05 units*
Net POT: 5.05%*

*These figures have been revised down due to me making a silly spreadsheet error. Sorry about that. Too many late night I think..

[AngryPixie]

5/6 --- not bad! It is when one bad pick wipes your winnings that this laying caper makes me mad.


I know. 5 steps forward, 4 steps back. I'm used to it from running my Oz lay method for 18 months. We should finish the month with an ok profit I think. We'll beat the Daily Donkey on POT, but we are leaving them a few profitable selections at the moment :( Might do just as well with a pin and a blindfold.

Have you noticed that most of our accidents have been expensive ones?

[AngryPixie]

Sorry bit late putting these up tonight. Best of luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070320-0110 Warwick - Just Supposin
20070320-0120 Exeter - Another Gale
20070320-0240 Warwick - Rowdy Yeats
20070320-0250 Exeter - Anshabil
20070320-0310 Warwick - Ceoperk
20070320-0330 Southwell - Macademy Royal

[Chrome Prince]

Hi AP,

Congratulations on your revised method.
It looks to be working well.
Have you experimented with prices at all?
The key to any lay method is getting as close to the lowest lay price available.
I always have to bear in mind that Betfair usually pays substantially better odds overall, so there is a bit of an art in getting the shortest odds you can.

[AngryPixie]

Congratulations on your revised method.
It looks to be working well.

Hi Chrome. Thanks things are going along ok I think. I'm pleased that I'm able to use a similar selection technique to my current Oz lay method, although I've a higher strike rate in Oz.


Have you experimented with prices at all?


Yes that's basically what I'm doing at present. I'm only placing small lays to just feel out the edges of the price moves. Some guys on another forum have done some interesting work on converting SP prices to BF prices. They're using three equations for three different price bands. I'll have a chance to look over those this weekend I hope.

How's things with you?

[Merriguy]

5/6 again. Oh well, if you must miss out on one it is preferable for it to be a 10/11 favourite :) .


Don't like you blokes being bright and bushy-tailed at 1.00 a.m.!! I need my sleep.

[AngryPixie]

5/6 again. Oh well, if you must miss out on one it is preferable for it to be a 10/11 favourite :) .


Yes that Rowdy Yeats has won twice in two days now. It was the danger runner of the bunch, but we finished with a tidy profit.

Are you laying these Merriguy? Laying each regardless of price, or pricing them up somehow?


Don't like you blokes being bright and bushy-tailed at 1.00 a.m.!! I need my sleep.

It's not so good at this part of the day :(

[Chrome Prince]

Yes that's basically what I'm doing at present. I'm only placing small lays to just feel out the edges of the price moves. Some guys on another forum have done some interesting work on converting SP prices to BF prices. They're using three equations for three different price bands. I'll have a chance to look over those this weekend I hope.

How's things with you?

I'd be very interested in that price conversion, if you can give me a hint to which forum it's on.

Things are ticking along nicely, but I'm still struggling with the apparent anomaly of Australian price movements versus every other country.
I'm starting to think (can't prove it) that by comparison Australian horseracing markets are tiny, therefore any movement by "informed" money
has a greater chance of being correct, than price swings in big markets.

Not sure why, how, or whether it's just a perception, but this has been going on for many months now.

It's time to take notice and really start doing the reverse of what I do overseas on aussie markets.

I posted some time ago on this, and whenever there's money for a horse, they just seem to win, I cannot get profitable lay bets at any price!

There were 10 in a row the other week at various venues. (Favourites only that firmed on Betfair).

[AngryPixie]

I'd be very interested in that price conversion, if you can give me a hint to which forum it's on.


Hi Chrome et al

They're talking about the UK markets but if you yahoo'd for

"using sp odds for forcasting"

you'd find it. Doesn't appear in Google for some reason.

Also you'll find an intersting piece on

"bayesian inferencing systems"

which is what I was getting at here

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showpost.php?p=138146&postcount=11


I posted some time ago on this, and whenever there's money for a horse, they just seem to win, I cannot get profitable lay bets at any price!


Yes I agree with you here. In the UK and here in OZ I'm basically using the same methodology to arrive at my lay selections. It's still a bit early to reach any conclusions in the UK but it doesn't look like I'll get the same strike rate as here in Australia. I believe this is due primarily to me using a minimum and maximum lay price for my Australian lays. Before going live in Australia I observed the same trend you describe. By passing on the shorteners I've managed a 6-7%* better strike rate than I'm currently getting in the UK. The downside of this is that my Australian average SP is higher, and the POT and advantage** are lower. But it's quite mature now and is currently showing only a 2% chance of success due to luck. At this stage I've no plans to introduce a minimum lay price in the UK.

The UK Betfair markets are very sophisticated and are starting to interest me a great deal. I think what we're seeing here in Australia is a lack of uninformed money in the Betfair markets, or too many avenues to investment, or a combination of both. There was a short conversation about the Australian Betfair markets on Betfair radio last night between races. Andy (the on duty "pundit", who really know's his stuff BTW) hinted at a big increase in liquidity in the Australian Betfair markets by years end. I've no idea what he bases that comment on but let's hope anyway.

Have a good one.

* Come and get me "Punting Gods"
** I've not actually worked out my UK advantage yet, but it'll be more.

[AngryPixie]

A really excellent night from Don at The Daily Donkey. He's crossed the 10,000 profit point for the month so tread a little carefully, as he's only posted a monthly +10,000 profit four times. We did pretty well also, but at this stage the Donkey's are swamping us.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070320-0110 Warwick - Just Supposin ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0120 Exeter - Another Gale ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0240 Warwick - Rowdy Yeats ... WON -1.10
20070320-0250 Exeter - Anshabil ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0310 Warwick - Ceoperk ... LOST +1.00
20070320-0330 Southwell - Macademy Royal ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 20th

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 92
Successful Selections: 79
Strike Rate: 85.86%
Profit: +23.07 units
Commission @ 5%: -3.95 units
Net Profit: +19.12 units
Net POT: 20.78%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 461
Successful Selections: 355
Strike Rate: 77.00%
Profit: +56.34 units
Commission @ 5%: -17.75 units
Net Profit: +38.59 units
Net POT: 8.37%

[Mark]

Hi Pixie

Are you paying for the Donkey lays?
If so, it's very generous of you to list them here.

How much does Don bet, and over what period has he topped $10000 profit?

[AngryPixie]

Hi Pixie

Are you paying for the Donkey lays?
If so, it's very generous of you to list them here.

How much does Don bet, and over what period has he topped $10000 profit?

Hi Mark

No the lays are listed for free here

w w w dot dailydonkey dot com

I don't know Don at all. I just picked his name up from the site. He's staking 100 on each and I think he's posted a monthly 10,000 profit four times over about four years. I suspect what's happening is that he lays them early, posts them on his web site, them trades them when they blow in the market. He's very consistent but you'd struggle to profit if you layed them all as he lists his results at SP. That's what this whole exercise is about really. Picking and choosing to make his selections turn a profit.

Do you think summarising his results is the wrong thing to do? Just trying to show a comparison.

[Mark]

Ok thanks for that.
When do they put the lays up?

Do you think summarising his results is the wrong thing to do? Just trying to show a comparison.

No, not at all. How do you determine which ones you lay as opposed to laying the lot?
Like Michael, I've been testing another lay system. It's on UK races and last night selected 4 that were all unplaced. I'll post them here later.

Cheers
Mark

[AngryPixie]

Ok thanks for that.
When do they put the lays up?


They are usually all there by 11:30pm but one or two do pop up after that.

How do you determine which ones you lay as opposed to laying the lot?


Well that's the secret isn't it ;)


Like Michael, I've been testing another lay system. It's on UK races and last night selected 4 that were all unplaced. I'll post them here later.


Excellent. More the merrier.

[Mark]

Tonights UK lays. QLD times. With current lay price.

Chep 0.10 In The Lead 4.10
Chep 2.20 City Streets 5.50

Ling 0.50 Lindop 5.40
Ling 2.00 Bible Lord 5.20

Kemp 1.05 Savoy Chapel 4.50
Kemp 1.35 Black Oval 6.60
Kemp 2.10 Firework 8.00
Kemp 2.40 Methaaly 10.50 (probably too long)
Kemp 3.10 Annemasse 4.50
Kemp 3.40 Speagle 5.90

[AngryPixie]

Quiet night from me tonight with two selections only.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070321-0300 Lingfield - Bible Lord
20070321-0330 Lingfield - Captain's Legacy

[AngryPixie]

Tonights UK lays. QLD times. With current lay price.
Ling 2.00 Bible Lord 5.20


Mark

We've both found Bible Lord. Maybe we should consider this one a special :)

Hope it goes well. Your lays, not Bible Lord.

[AngryPixie]

We've both found Bible Lord. Maybe we should consider this one a special :)


or ... maybe not.

Rotten 6/1 horse :mad:

[AngryPixie]

An awful night for UK layers. Bible Lord blew on Betfair from 4.80 to over 8 in what seemed like five minutes, yet won like the best of things :mad:

Date-Time Course - Name
20070321-0300 Lingfield - Bible Lord ... WON -6.00
20070321-0330 Lingfield - Captain's Legacy ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 21st

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 94
Successful Selections: 80
Strike Rate: 85.10%
Profit: +18.07 units
Commission @ 5%: -4.00 units
Net Profit: +14.12 units
Net POT: 15.02%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 489
Successful Selections: 375
Strike Rate: 76.68%
Profit: +48.51 units
Commission @ 5%: -18.75 units
Net Profit: +29.76 units
Net POT: 6.08%

[Mark]

Tonights UK lays. QLD times. With current lay price.

Chep 0.10 In The Lead 4.10 3rd +1.0
Chep 2.20 City Streets 5.50 unp +1.0

Ling 0.50 Lindop 5.40 won -4.4
Ling 2.00 Bible Lord 5.20 won -4.2

Kemp 1.05 Savoy Chapel 4.50 unp +1.0
Kemp 1.35 Black Oval 6.60 2nd +1.0
Kemp 2.10 Firework 8.00 unp +1.0
Kemp 2.40 Methaaly 10.50 (probably too long) won no bet
Kemp 3.10 Annemasse 4.50 won -3.50
Kemp 3.40 Speagle 5.90 unp +1.0

I should be a tipster!!!
-6.10
Don't know about you Pixie, but my markets wouldn't load last night and are still not working this morning, so no damage done.

[AngryPixie]

I should be a tipster!!!
-6.10
Don't know about you Pixie, but my markets wouldn't load last night and are still not working this morning, so no damage done.

At least the Daily Donkey did the worst with a -7.83. Give it another go tonight Mark. First time out this was bound to happen.

[Merriguy]

Hi guys

I went it alone --- can't stay up as long as you blokes. Only had the two bets --- Aux le Bahnn at Ling and Super Martina ant Chep. The first won, of course! Super M lost.

Mark, I had trouble loading things this morning earlier on. It seems to be working O.K. now.

[AngryPixie]

Hi guys

I went it alone --- can't stay up as long as you blokes. Only had the two bets --- Aux le Bahnn at Ling and Super Martina ant Chep. The first won, of course! Super M lost.

Mark, I had trouble loading things this morning earlier on. It seems to be working O.K. now.

Merriguy

Yep bad night all around. Unfortunately I'd priced Bible Lord at $4.80 and got that matched, and was feeling quite smug with myself when it blew so much. It never looked like getting beaten. :(

Maybe I should have twigged that we were in for a tough one when I only turned up two selections. There's always tonight :)

[AngryPixie]

Busier night tonight.

Good luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070322-0100 Ludlow - Little Venus
20070322-0120 Ayr - Eriskay
20070322-0300 Ludlow - Golden Feather
20070322-0330 Ludlow - Mouseski
20070322-0350 Ayr - Time To Roam
20070322-0350 Ayr - Le Rouge Fatal

[AngryPixie]

Not bad. Still working to get a win free night.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070322-0100 Ludlow - Little Venus ... LOST +1.00
20070322-0120 Ayr - Eriskay ... LOST +1.00
20070322-0300 Ludlow - Golden Feather ... LOST +1.00
20070322-0330 Ludlow - Mouseski ... WON -2.75
20070322-0350 Ayr - Time To Roam ... LOST +1.00
20070322-0350 Ayr - Le Rouge Fatal ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 22nd

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 100
Successful Selections: 85
Strike Rate: 85.00%
Profit: +20.32 units
Commission @ 5%: -4.25 units
Net Profit: +16.07 units
Net POT: 16.07%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 528
Successful Selections: 404
Strike Rate: 76.51%
Profit: +53.89 units
Commission @ 5%: -20.20 units
Net Profit: +33.69 units
Net POT: 6.38%

[AngryPixie]

I'd be very interested in that price conversion

Chrome

Used these equations last night with some success. Have you had a look?

[Chrome Prince]

Hi AP,

Yes very interesting and thanks for pointing me to it.
Generally, my range is favourites only, so it's not as critical for me, but certainly it would be of great help in pricing anything that wasn't short in the market. I find that setting my percentages just short of the professionals is a good way to go for me. That way I know I haven't made an error. (overall)

[AngryPixie]

Lots of lays tonight.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070323-0050 Wolverhampton - Bobering
20070323-0120 Wolverhampton - Postmaster
20070323-0140 Newbury - Carlitos
20070323-0250 Newbury - Tisseman
20070323-0250 Newbury - Go Solo
20070323-0340 Wolverhampton - Blushing Russian
20070323-0400 Newbury - Fleet Street
20070323-0400 Newbury - Priors Dale
20070323-0410 Wolverhampton - Bay Boy

[odericko]

carlitos horse in point??

[AngryPixie]

Sorry. Have other commitments. Last nights results to follow.

[AngryPixie]

We're not breaking any speed records but steady forward progress is better than none at all I figure.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070323-0050 Wolverhampton - Bobering ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0120 Wolverhampton - Postmaster ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0140 Newbury - Carlitos ... WON -1.10
20070323-0250 Newbury - Tisseman ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0250 Newbury - Go Solo ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0340 Wolverhampton - Blushing Russian ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0400 Newbury - Fleet Street ... WON -4.50
20070323-0400 Newbury - Priors Dale ... LOST +1.00
20070323-0410 Wolverhampton - Bay Boy ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 23rd

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 109
Successful Selections: 92
Strike Rate: 84.40%
Profit: +21.72units
Commission @ 5%: -4.60 units
Net Profit: +17.12 units
Net POT: 15.70%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 562
Successful Selections: 430
Strike Rate: 76.51%
Profit: +48.33 units
Commission @ 5%: -21.50 units
Net Profit: +26.83 units
Net POT: 4.77%

[AngryPixie]

Here we go with the last week. There will be no selections next Saturday March 31st so this thread will end this coming Friday, March 30th.

Good luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070325-0010 Taunton - Bob Bites Back
20070325-0040 Taunton - Mister Knight
20070325-0100 Southwell - Symbiosis
20070325-0110 Taunton - Man Of Mine
20070325-0140 Taunton - Swansea Bay
20070325-0140 Taunton - Yes My Lord
20070325-0210 Taunton - Garleton

[Chrome Prince]

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 23rd

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 109
Successful Selections: 92
Strike Rate: 84.40%
Profit: +21.72units
Commission @ 5%: -4.60 units
Net Profit: +17.12 units
Net POT: 15.70%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 562
Successful Selections: 430
Strike Rate: 76.51%
Profit: +48.33 units
Commission @ 5%: -21.50 units
Net Profit: +26.83 units
Net POT: 4.77%[/FONT]

AP,

Well done with your efforts, you've beaten that stubborn donkey on POT, but he's bucked you off with higher dollar profit. But not by a great deal, your risk is lower.
One thing that does worry me is using the SP price minus 5% commission, on some lays you may never have been matched and on others matched at much lower prices. How do you know for accuracy?
I think you've done a tremendous job, not too many post lay systems here.
Keep up the good work.

[AngryPixie]

We were very clever and managed to tip two non-runners. That takes a lot of skill :rolleyes: Not a bad night other than that.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070325-0010 Taunton - Bob Bites Back ... NON RUNNER
20070325-0040 Taunton - Mister Knight ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0100 Southwell - Symbiosis ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0110 Taunton - Man Of Mine ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0140 Taunton - Swansea Bay ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0140 Taunton - Yes My Lord ... LOST +1.00
20070325-0210 Taunton - Garleton ... NON RUNNER

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 25th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 114
Successful Selections: 97
Strike Rate: 85.08%
Profit: +26.72units
Commission @ 5%: -4.85 units
Net Profit: +21.87 units
Net POT: 19.18%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 594
Successful Selections: 455
Strike Rate: 76.59%
Profit: +54.42 units
Commission @ 5%: -22.75 units
Net Profit: +31.67 units
Net POT: 5.33%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

[AngryPixie]

Well done with your efforts, you've beaten that stubborn donkey on POT, but he's bucked you off with higher dollar profit. But not by a great deal, your risk is lower.


Thanks Chrome it's been an enjoyable exercise but I wouldn't like trying to make a living from being a tipster. Look's as though I've managed to pick a trial month where the Daily Donky selections are going to finish above 10,000 profit!* Just luck I guess :mad:


One thing that does worry me is using the SP price minus 5% commission, on some lays you may never have been matched and on others matched at much lower prices. How do you know for accuracy?


Yes I know there are problems there but it's more for illustrative purposes than for accuracy. I'm using SP for ease of comparison with the way the Daily Donkey display their results. As you say there are times when the selections don't get matched, and in fact you'd have missed a number of the "accidents" if you'd priced them up around the Racing Post PP. You'd have missed a number of our successes too, but you'd be doing better than the results posted here.

What I'll do at the end of the week is average the "accident" SP's out and use that SP to BF equation do display a projected BF matched price. With Donkey's 132 "accidents" things should even up quite a bit. I know this is not ideal but for the purposes of the exercise (quality over quantity) it's probably good enough.


I think you've done a tremendous job, not too many post lay systems here.
Keep up the good work.

Thanks again, but let's not forget the great stuff Michaelg get's up to.

* I'd like to think that the Daily Donkey team are lurking here and that they've picked up their game. ;)

[AngryPixie]

Only three lay selections tonight.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070326-0020 Plumpton - Tommy Carson
20070326-0130 Stratford - Blazing Guns
20070326-0230 Stratford - Atouchbetweenacara

[AngryPixie]

We gave some back last night. Daily Donkey also posted a loss. There wasn't much laying value around so if you'd framed your prices around the Racing Post PP you may have struggled to lay anything.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070326-0020 Plumpton - Tommy Carson ... WON -6.00
20070326-0130 Stratford - Blazing Guns ... LOST +1.00
20070326-0230 Stratford - Atouchbetweenacara ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 26th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 117
Successful Selections: 99
Strike Rate: 84.61%
Profit: +22.72 units
Commission @ 5%: -4.95 units
Net Profit: +17.77 units
Net POT: 15.18%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 625
Successful Selections: 478
Strike Rate: 76.48%
Profit: +50.21 units
Commission @ 5%: -23.90 units
Net Profit: +26.31 units
Net POT: 4.20%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

[AngryPixie]

All the best.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070327-2300 Wolverhampton - Only If I Laugh
20070327-2320 Wolverhampton - Mange Tout
20070327-2330 Wolverhampton - Prince Of Gold
20070327-0030 Wolverhampton - Devon Flame
20070327-0050 Sedgefield - Reasonably Sure
20070327-0200 Wolverhampton - Desert Lover

[AngryPixie]

A pleasing result for everybody.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070327-2300 Wolverhampton - Only If I Laugh ... LOST +1.00
20070327-2320 Wolverhampton - Mange Tout ... LOST +1.00
20070327-2330 Wolverhampton - Prince Of Gold ... LOST +1.00
20070327-0030 Wolverhampton - Devon Flame ... LOST +1.00
20070327-0050 Sedgefield - Reasonably Sure ... LOST +1.00
20070327-0200 Wolverhampton - Desert Lover ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 27th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 123
Successful Selections: 105
Strike Rate: 85.36%
Profit: +28.72 units
Commission @ 5%: -5.25 units
Net Profit: +23.47 units
Net POT: 19.08%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 665
Successful Selections: 509
Strike Rate: 76.54%
Profit: +61.73 units
Commission @ 5%: -25.45 units
Net Profit: +36.28 units
Net POT: 5.45%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

[AngryPixie]

Have a good one :)

Date-Time Course - Name
20070328-0025 Kempton - Penny Park
20070328-0100 Kempton - Cusp
20070328-0110 Towcester - Talikos
20070328-0135 Kempton - Marfinca
20070328-0205 Kempton - Spring Margot

[Merriguy]

5/5 --- You're cooking with gas :)

[AngryPixie]

5/5 --- You're cooking with gas :)

I hope it's not methane.

[AngryPixie]

Another ok night. Prepare your gas masks for a stinker.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070328-0025 Kempton - Penny Park ... LOST +1.00
20070328-0100 Kempton - Cusp ... LOST +1.00
20070328-0110 Towcester - Talikos ... LOST +1.00
20070328-0135 Kempton - Marfinca ... LOST +1.00
20070328-0205 Kempton - Spring Margot ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 28th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 128
Successful Selections: 110
Strike Rate: 85.93%
Profit: +33.72 units
Commission @ 5%: -5.50 units
Net Profit: +28.22 units
Net POT: 22.04%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 699
Successful Selections: 536
Strike Rate: 76.68%
Profit: +69.73 units
Commission @ 5%: -26.80 units
Net Profit: +42.93 units
Net POT: 6.14%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

[AngryPixie]

Two nights to go. Good luck.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070329-0000 Towcester - Fontanesi
20070329-0010 Hereford - City Streets
20070329-0030 Towcester - Denvale
20070329-0040 Hereford - Notaproblem
20070329-0110 Hereford - Levallois
20070329-0140 Hereford - Foly Pleasant
20070329-0210 Hereford - Definite Dancer

[AngryPixie]

Small half unit "accident" over night. The two late scratchings didn't help us. The Daily Donkey seems to be powering ahead.

Tonight is the last night of selections.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070329-0000 Towcester - Fontanesi ... LOST +1.00
20070329-0010 Hereford - City Streets ... LOST +1.00
20070329-0030 Towcester - Denvale ... WON -4.50
20070329-0040 Hereford - Notaproblem ... LOST +1.00
20070329-0110 Hereford - Levallois ... LOST +1.00
20070329-0140 Hereford - Foly Pleasant ... NON RUNNER
20070329-0210 Hereford - Definite Dancer ... NON RUNNER

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 29th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 133
Successful Selections: 114
Strike Rate: 85.71%
Profit: +33.22 units
Commission @ 5%: -5.70 units
Net Profit: +27.52 units
Net POT: 20.69%

Daily Donkey:
===
Number of Selections: 740
Successful Selections: 570
Strike Rate: 77.02%
Profit: +80.04 units
Commission @ 5%: -28.50 units
Net Profit: +51.54 units
Net POT: 6.96%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

[AngryPixie]

Last lot of selections for the time being. Hope you haven't lost too much :o

I'll do the normal results summary tomorrow, and early next week I'll crunch some numbers to see who really won - the Pixie or the Donkey.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070330-0030 Ascot - Openditch
20070330-0055 Lingfield - Lucayos
20070330-0130 Lingfield - Sgt Schultz

[Merriguy]

Nice!......again.

[AngryPixie]

Nice!......again.

Thanks Merri. It looks better than it is though. More on this to come.

[AngryPixie]

Finished the trial on a winning note :)

I think we actually did pretty well considering that the Daily Donkey have posted a +10,000 result for March. Only the fifth time ever.

I'm in the process of creating a couple of spreadsheets that throw a very different perspective of the results below. Stay tuned, you may get a shock :eek:

Date-Time Course - Name
20070330-0030 Ascot - Openditch ... LOST +1.00
20070330-0055 Lingfield - Lucayos ... LOST +1.00
20070330-0130 Lingfield - Sgt Schultz ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 30th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 136
Successful Selections: 117
Strike Rate: 86.02%
Profit: +36.22 units
Commission @ 5%: -5.85 units
Net Profit: +30.37 units
Net POT: 22.33%

Daily Donkey:**
===
Number of Selections: 766
Successful Selections: 587
Strike Rate: 76.63%
Profit: +81.21 units
Commission @ 5%: -29.35 units
Net Profit: +51.86 units
Net POT: 6.77%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

**Upon checking my recorded results with those recorded by the Daily Donkey, I found that I was giving them a bit more credit than they were giving themselves. I'd made a couple of small errors in my calculations (I'll blame staying up so late), so these are the corrected figures.

[Chrome Prince]

Well done AP.

Here's a quick and dirty lay system that works on Aussie racing.

Metro races only
Unitab rating less than 75
Lay up to double the prepost price only.

There's been three winners in three months for a profit of around 100+ units

[AngryPixie]

Nice one. I'll check it out.

Here's a back system you could have a look at. Instead of laying the Daily Donkey selections, back them. When you adjust for obtainable SP you'll be on a small but steady winner.

[Merriguy]

C.P.,

Am I reading your post correctly? Had a quick look at yesterday's five metro tracks. There were no horses that qualified (75 or less)! There were two at 76, one at 77.

At that rate there are not going to be too many lays!

[partypooper]

Angry, gotta admit I've never tried things this way round, though I have on several occasions found myself being able to cover a field @95% or there abouts using fixed odds, the feelings great, sheet it's like buying money, now i know why all those bookies have that sick smile on their face. Just to be able to laugh when the fav is left in the stalls then the 2nd fav is boxed in, then the 3rd fav gets gallopped on etc etc dosen't matter, at least 5% for sweet F/A makes you wonder how come it's legal??

n'way, 6% or so still seems pretty slim with an element of risk???? NO RISK yes ok, but 6% with a risk???? r u happy with that??

[AngryPixie]

Angry, gotta admit I've never tried things this way round
:o There's a first time for everything.

n'way, 6% or so still seems pretty slim with an element of risk???? NO RISK yes ok, but 6% with a risk???? r u happy with that??
You mean the Daily Donkey's 6.77% POT. I'd have to agree with you. These figures are SP too. You can't lay all the Daily Donkey selections and make money.

The 22.33% we managed (at SP also) is another matter. You'd probably manage a 6-10% POT at Betfair prices if you got your timing right, or if you were aggressive with your pricing and were prepared to leave a few that were too long.

Is 6% too slim? After expenses and at Betfair prices no I don't think so. My main business is laying Oz races where after expenses I'm doing around 7.1% at level stakes, with a 93.2% SR and and a 0.48% chance of success due to luck. I'll place about 10 lays on a race day and turn over my whole bank a little over once in doing so. There are good days and bad naturally, but these are very robust figures so I just churn away and marvel at the wonders of compound interest ;)

[partypooper]

Well, good on ya, I just can't get my head around the figures involved, some blockage or just dumb?? when we're away my wife has to drive as I just can't "get" driving on the right, she manages no problem.
Anyway, keep it up!

[AngryPixie]

Thanks Poop.

You could write pages on risk I guess, but in the end everybody has a different perspective on how much they're prepared to take on.

Your driving left side here though aren't you? ;)

[burrah]

:o
0.48% chance of success due to luck. Wots dat?

[AngryPixie]

Wots dat?
Burrah

It's possible to assess the long term viability of a method by doing a simple Chi-Square test. The following page has some punting based examples.

http://www.0dd5.com/matharchie.shtml

In the case of my current Oz lay method I'm 99.52% confident that my results to date are due to some factor other than luck. Sounds a bit of a w_a_n_k I know but it's a great way to measure your success against other punting methods, or indeed other forms of investment.

[burrah]

Burrah

It's possible to assess the long term viability of a method by doing a simple Chi-Square test. The following page has some punting based examples.

http://www.0dd5.com/matharchie.shtml

In the case of my current Oz lay method I'm 99.52% confident that my results to date are due to some factor other than luck. Sounds a bit of a w_a_n_k I know but it's a great way to measure your success against other punting methods, or indeed other forms of investment. Excellent site, many thanks.
Guess I'll have to record my bets in writing to work out some of the stats. I'll check and see if my betting history on betfair will do the trick. Normally all I do is keep an eagle eye on my current balance. When it's up = happy, when down, depresed. Using maths might be the go for my confidence.
Again many thanks.

[AngryPixie]

Here's some UK lay selections for tonight using a more selective variation of last months Beat The Donkey method. Good luck. :)

THIR 2330 Coconut Queen
LING 0245 Cativo Cavallino
HERE 0330 Travello

[odericko]

jusxt a memo and just woke up am ********ed again way 2 much cab shaz gord will prob no doubt not recall this ramble...if in case i do food 4 thought ...chrome p s thread about somethin got my interest 2 day and i made a killing on the plkace and onya kenchar u r my inspire on that account>>>>>>.

[AngryPixie]

Great start :eek:

THIR 2330 Coconut Queen ... LOST +1.00
LING 0245 Cativo Cavallino ... WON -7.00
HERE 0330 Travello ... LOST +1.00

[AngryPixie]

Good luck :)

HEX_ 2330 Star Fever
HEX_ 2330 Hold The Bid
PONT 0010 Sir Xaar

[AngryPixie]

Hope the rest of your punting day goes ok. :)

HEX_ 2330 Star Fever ... LOST +1.00
HEX_ 2330 Hold The Bid ... LOST +1.00
PONT 0010 Sir Xaar ... LOST +1.00

[AngryPixie]

STHL 2330 Hatton Flight
FOLK 2340 Nou Camp
WOLV 2355 Fuel Cell
STHL 0005 Rudry World
FOLK 0015 Malapropism

Best of luck.

[AngryPixie]

Fuel Cell got the blows a bit but we're back in the black. :cool:

STHL 2330 Hatton Flight ... LOST +1.00
FOLK 2340 Nou Camp ... LOST +1.00
WOLV 2355 Fuel Cell ... LOST +1.00
STHL 0005 Rudry World ... LOST +1.00
FOLK 0015 Malapropism ... LOST +1.00

Sorry no selections tomorrow night.

[AngryPixie]

Only one selection today. Good luck :)

YARM 0500 Power Of Future

[AngryPixie]

Boo :(

YARM 0500 Power Of Future ... WON -5.00

[AngryPixie]

I'll put the Donkey to bed I think while the damage isn't to bad.