faves

[odericko]

its said that 30 percent of faves win ?? is there a price band that wins or places more than any other??

[partypooper]

ah odericko, thats why most of us are here trying to find the magic formula,

in short about 30% of favs win (seems to be the same % across all types and classes of races) stats go back to the 1700's or something so I'm told.

The answer to your question though is YES........... BUUT, b4 you get too excited this is what happens, overall 30% win and you will lose about 10% on turnover (enough to send you broke VERY quickly) in a nutshell, the higher the price bracket the more the loss on turnover, so look at odds on chances and the loss DECREASES (and the S/R increases)

[Nigel]

Does field size have any bearing on the favourites strike rate? Or for that matter how about field size and price. ie. how do odds on favourites in a field of 7 or 8 runners compare to odds on favourites in a field of say 15 runners?

[partypooper]

I only have a limited data base which shows no significant difference (could be wrong) but what you will find is the direct link between S/R-Price-LOT, in other words the higher the S/R the lesser the returned odds.(frustration)

[ubetido]

Hi all

I recall reading a few years ago that the odds on favs at the greyhounds and trots were a better proposition than odds on at the thoroughbreds in term of strike rate.

Cheers
ubetido

[Bhagwan]

Heres something that has been researched.

Faves win the most on the first race of the day & the last race of the day has the lowest SR but its losses are less because the average price is higher.
SO
If one wish to chase Favs, one is better off targeting the last race for all venues, because its average price is greater.

The trick is defining what a true fav from a false fav.
Here are some of my ideas what defines a false Fav.
1) If it is carrying the same weight or less from last start, false Fav. (FF)
2) Is TAB No.7 8 9 ect. FF
3) Resuming in a 1200m+ race. FF
4) Weighted to carry 59kg+, FF
5) If todays price is greater than its last start price , FF
6) If todays Fav was $2.00 & less last start, FF
7) If it has won 3 races in a row without a spell e.g. 111 , FF
8) If it has not been place (123) in either of its last 3 starts, FF

One could apply this to say the paper fav for the last race for all venues 7 days a week.
Keep in mind that a pre-post market is available from the AAP allsports site,
this saves having to go & buy a newspaper to get the pre-post prices.

Try not to bet on any fave paying less than $2.60

Cheers.

[stugots]

one might also consider a laying strategy based around bhag's pointers