hermes
10th September 2002, 02:44 AM
Here's a direct spin-off from some recent posts, mainly that of Bhagwan. It works OK on paper.
Races of 14 or less runners only.
Country races weekdays preferred.
Good or fast tracks only.
We only consider TABs 2-3, 4-5, 6-7. Don't replace scratchings.
Now, look at the QTAB rating of the favourite (or the runner you believe will start favourite at jump). Now search the TAB 2-7 range for two runners with ratings directly BELOW the favourite. Eg. if the fave is rated 100 look for 99, then 98, then 97 and so on.
Maximum of two selections.
If all runners 2-7 are rated above the favourite, no bet.
Often, where the fave is not the highest rated runner, there is only one selection.
If there are three or more qualifiers all rated the same, try eenie meenie minee mo.
I've tested this over 120+ races for a POT of 7.8%. Promising. What is interesting is that it works better than looking at runners rated better than the favourite.
As a general observation, with these sort of "systems" you need filters that pull both ways - one up and one down. By only looking at TABs 2-7 you already have a filter that places you in the statistically rich band of starters. To add to this another filter that looks for quality - eg. those rated above the favourite - won't do as well as one that filters out some quality - eg. those rated below the favourite. Thus in Bhagwan's original post, he filtered out last start placegetters - ostensibly good runners. I think that is usually the right type of move - one filter up (only TABs 2-7), one filter down (only last start failures).
Stake as per Bhagwan's sensational crappy horse method. The staking is, as Bhagwan says in that post, the important thing.
TABs 2-3 = 4 units, 4-5 = 3 units, 6-7 = 2 units. Devise any selection method you like to get your horses from 2-7, but try staking it this way.
Just some thoughts at this late hour.
Happy punting
Hermes
Races of 14 or less runners only.
Country races weekdays preferred.
Good or fast tracks only.
We only consider TABs 2-3, 4-5, 6-7. Don't replace scratchings.
Now, look at the QTAB rating of the favourite (or the runner you believe will start favourite at jump). Now search the TAB 2-7 range for two runners with ratings directly BELOW the favourite. Eg. if the fave is rated 100 look for 99, then 98, then 97 and so on.
Maximum of two selections.
If all runners 2-7 are rated above the favourite, no bet.
Often, where the fave is not the highest rated runner, there is only one selection.
If there are three or more qualifiers all rated the same, try eenie meenie minee mo.
I've tested this over 120+ races for a POT of 7.8%. Promising. What is interesting is that it works better than looking at runners rated better than the favourite.
As a general observation, with these sort of "systems" you need filters that pull both ways - one up and one down. By only looking at TABs 2-7 you already have a filter that places you in the statistically rich band of starters. To add to this another filter that looks for quality - eg. those rated above the favourite - won't do as well as one that filters out some quality - eg. those rated below the favourite. Thus in Bhagwan's original post, he filtered out last start placegetters - ostensibly good runners. I think that is usually the right type of move - one filter up (only TABs 2-7), one filter down (only last start failures).
Stake as per Bhagwan's sensational crappy horse method. The staking is, as Bhagwan says in that post, the important thing.
TABs 2-3 = 4 units, 4-5 = 3 units, 6-7 = 2 units. Devise any selection method you like to get your horses from 2-7, but try staking it this way.
Just some thoughts at this late hour.
Happy punting
Hermes