Another Laying Method

[wesmip1]

All,

I have been trialling another laying method which I will start following on paper from tommorrow.

The inspriation for this was the beat the donkey thread. I thought if the donkey could be laying that many horses a day and making a profit then it could probably be applied in some form to the Aussie markets. The underlying principle is to find lots of horses worth laying while staying clear of those that have a better than average chance of winning.

The rules are :
Pre Post < $10 (Racing and Sports PP odds)
Not a last Start Winner
Not a 100 Unitab rater (or highest rater is 100 is scratched)
Not within the first 2 neurals using default settings
Not within the first 2 neurals using CP,CF, JA,TA = 3 and $=5.
If returning from a spell has never won first up.

Trialled it over a few random venues and it was producing a profit.

There are 2 selection methods based on price. The first one would be to only lay those that you can get at or below the PrePost price. The second would be to lay all of them regardless.

Staking could be done anyway you choose. I will record results at level stakes.

Something to note is scratchings could change the selections tommorrow. Those who stick to the rules should check the neurals in case scratchings have caused horses to move into the top 2 selections of the neural criteria.

There are 47 selections tommorrow.

Ararat
Race 1: $7.00 My Bid,
Race 2: $5.00 Barb's I rish Rose, $6.00 Satzero, $7.00 Beatdejug, $7.00 Cairodee,
Race 3: $2.60 Secret Warrior, $5.00 Brassington,
Race 4: $4.40 Freshwater Pirate, $4.80 Jump The Queue, $8.50 Liquefy,
Race 5: No Lays
Race 6: $6.50 Phoenix,
Race 7: No Lays
Race 8: $3.50 Our Shanagolden, $4.20 Deferred Success, $4.80 Perilous Peak, $6.50 Gifford,
Race 9: $3.50 Four Legs Good, $6.50 River Swing, $6.50 Coniston Pearl, $8.50 Fine Perception,

Quirindi
Race 1: $3.70 Fightthegoodfight, $7.00 Kensington Road, $7.00 Broken Link,
Race 2: $2.60 Evaandeva,
Race 3: $4.40 Durga, $6.00 French Falcon,
Race 4: $6.00 Flopitidop, $9.00 Argentine Tango, $9.00 Ras El Hanout,
Race 5: $5.50 Bizante, $5.50 Home Turn, $8.50 Amanda Lyl,
Race 6: $4.20 Opaque Zircon, $7.50 Redemptive Lad,
Race 7: $7.50 Mr Humerus, $8.50 Scramjet,


Wagga
Race 1: $4.40 I rish Barney, $6.00 The Catwalk Star,
Race 2: $6.50 Shantung, $7.00 Fu Who
Race 3: $8.50 Leica Ferrari,
Race 4: $4.20 Mrs Post, $6.00 Alone 'n' Blue, $7.50 Aussie Bomber,
Race 5: $5.00 Trepezanov, $6.00 Zereeba,
Race 6: $6.00 Glencoyne,
Race 7: $8.50 Kapvalante,

I expect this to fall in a heap now that I have posted the rules.

Good Luck.

[AngryPixie]

Wes

Wow, looks like a fair bit of work each day. Thanks for posting these up. Hope it goes well for you.

[AngryPixie]

Wes

Other than Amanda Lyl (wouldn't lay at that price anyway) that was a pretty good effort. Thanks alot. Really well done :)

[wesmip1]

Angry Pixie,

I agree with your comment on Amanda Lyl. I will put up the results tonight but not a bad effort for its first day.

4 winners from 42 selections.

I would not lay anything over $10 on betfair which would have ruled out at least half of the selections but I think you still would have made a nice profit today.

Good Luck.

[wesmip1]

Ararat
Race 1: $7.00 My Bid, LOST ($7.20)
Race 2: $5.00 Barb's I rish Rose, SCRATCHED
Race 2: $6.00 Satzero, (WIN $3.70)
Race 2: $7.00 Beatdejug, LOST ($7.00)
Race 2: $7.00 Cairodee, LOST ($11.50)
Race 3: $2.60 Secret Warrior, LOST($10.00)
Race 3: $5.00 Brassington, LOST ($19.00)
Race 4: $4.40 Freshwater Pirate, LOST ($6.20)
Race 4: $4.80 Jump The Queue, LOST ($3.65)
Race 4: $8.50 Liquefy, SCRATCHED
Race 5: No Lays
Race 6: $6.50 Phoenix, LOST ($4.30)
Race 7: No Lays
Race 8: $3.50 Our Shanagolden, LOST ($4.40)
Race 8: $4.20 Deferred Success, LOST ($7.00)
Race 8: $4.80 Perilous Peak, LOST ($11.00)
Race 8: $6.50 Gifford, LOST ($14.50)
Race 9: $3.50 Four Legs Good, (WIN $9.00)
Race 9: $6.50 River Swing, LOST ($9.80)
Race 9: $6.50 Coniston Pearl, LOST ($12.00)
Race 9: $8.50 Fine Perception, LOST ($9.20)

Quirindi
Race 1: $3.70 Fightthegoodfight, SCRATCHED
Race 1: $7.00 Kensington Road, LOST ($70.00)
Race 1: $7.00 Broken Link, LOST ($4.50)
Race 2: $2.60 Evaandeva, LOST ($4.80)
Race 3: $4.40 Durga, LOST ($8.40)
Race 3: $6.00 French Falcon, LOST ($6.00)
Race 4: $6.00 Flopitidop, LOST ($7.60)
Race 4: $9.00 Argentine Tango, LOST ($14.00)
Race 4: $9.00 Ras El Hanout, LOST ($9.80)
Race 5: $5.50 Bizante, LOST ($8.00)
Race 5: $5.50 Home Turn, LOST ($7.80)
Race 5: $8.50 Amanda Lyl, (WIN $25.00)
Race 6: $4.20 Opaque Zircon, LOST ($4.20)
Race 6: $7.50 Redemptive Lad, LOST ($8.20)
Race 7: $7.50 Mr Humerus, WIN ($8.40)
Race 7: $8.50 Scramjet, LOST ($5.10)

Wagga
Race 1: $4.40 I rish Barney, LOST ($12.50)
Race 1: $6.00 The Catwalk Star, LOST ($3.20)
Race 2: $6.50 Shantung, SCRATCHED
Race 2: $7.00 Fu Who LOST ($3.05)
Race 3: $8.50 Leica Ferrari, LOST ($4.30)
Race 4: $4.20 Mrs Post, LOST ($4.80)
Race 4: $6.00 Alone 'n' Blue, LOST ($17.50)
Race 4: $7.50 Aussie Bomber, SCRATCHED
Race 5: $5.00 Trepezanov, LOST ($12.00)
Race 5: $6.00 Zereeba, SCRATCHED
Race 6: $6.00 Glencoyne, LOST ($5.40)
Race 7: $8.50 Kapvalante, SCRATCHED

PP odds or below : 12 Selections for $8.30 Profit
Under $5.00 : 11 Selections for $7.30 Profit
Under $10.00 : 29 Selections for $7.90 Profit
Under $20.00 : 38 Selections for $16.90 Profit
Taking All selections: 40 Selections for $-6.10 LOSS

Good Luck.

[wesmip1]

All,

I am only going to post results for this system from now on. If interested the rules (which were stated before) are:

Pre Post < $10 (Racing and Sports PP odds)
Not a last Start Winner
Not a 100 Unitab rater (or highest rater is 100 is scratched)
Not within the first 2 neurals using default settings
Not within the first 2 neurals using CP,CF, JA,TA = 3 and $=5.
If returning from a spell has never won first up.

Did the selections for tommorrow at Ballina :

Ballina
Race 1: $4.40 Billjim Hero,
Race 1: $7.00 Coen,
Race 1: $7.50 Ions,
Race 2: $7.50 King Jasar,
Race 3: $6.00 Kindred Hope,
Race 3: $7.00 Sky Mews,
Race 3: $9.00 Dam De Fino,
Race 4: $7.00 Legal Jargon,
Race 4: $9.00 Sun Regal,
Race 5: $7.50 St Lor
Race 6: $7.50 Kendrick Lad,
Race 7: $7.00 Secret Asset,
Race 7: $7.50 Deejay's Girl,
Race 7: $9.00 Ashley Rose,

[wesmip1]

A poor result today with a lot of winners getting up. 8 Winners from 56 selections (15%) which won 8 of 30 races (26%).

Hopefully better luck tommorrow - Still showed a profit for our target Under $10 bets.


Ballina
Race 1: $7.50 Ions, WIN($5.00)
Race 2: $7.50 King Jasar, LOST($5.90)
Race 3: $6.00 Kindred Hope, LOST($30.00)
Race 3: $7.00 Sky Mews, WIN($6.20)
Race 4: $9.00 Sun Regal, LOST($7.80)
Race 5: $7.50 St Lor LOST($13.50)
Race 6: $7.50 Kendrick Lad, WIN($7.20)
Race 7: $7.00 Secret Asset, WIN($15.00)
Race 7: $7.50 Deejay's Girl, LOST($4.60)
Race 7: $9.00 Ashley Rose, LOST($32.00)

Gosford
Race 1:$5.00 Good Samaritan, WIN($3.60)
Race 2:$2.25 Moniette, LOST($2.88)
Race 3:$2.70 At The Hop, WIN($1.90)
Race 4:$3.00 Yo Ho Diablo, LOST($9.00)
Race 4:$4.40 Cross The Floor, LOST($8.20)
Race 4:$6.00 Cos In Court, LOST($7.80)
Race 5: NO BET
Race 6:$3.70 Phantom Countess, LOST($25.00)
Race 6:$7.00 Balham, LOST($11.00)
Race 7:$5.00 Cosmic Babe, LOST($8.80)
Race 7:$7.00 Magical Lass, LOST($4.20)
Race 8:$7.00 Big Head, LOST($22.00)
Race 8:$9.00 Nisp, LOST($6.00)
Race 9:$3.20 Now Now WIN($4.90)

Terang
Race 1:$5.50 Le Guard, LOST($13.50)
Race 1:$7.00 Raazaular LOST($55.00)
Race 1:$7.50 Stamus Pro Honneur,LOST($14.50)
Race 1:$7.50 Tour Of Duty, LOST($6.00)
Race 2: NO BETS
Race 3:$4.20 Gold Gauntlet, LOST($19.50)
Race 3:$7.00 Biniboi, LOST($5.70)
Race 3:$7.50 Portland Red, LOST($38.00)
Race 3:$9.00 Rubyat, LOST($10.50)
Race 4:$7.00 Giggle Palace, LOST($24.00)
Race 4:$7.50 Palatimo LOST($65.00)
Race 5:$4.20 Gill'n'i, LOST($6.40)
Race 5:$6.00 Falvette, LOST($7.40)
Race 5:$7.50 Susie Jane, LOST($7.20)
Race 5:$7.50 Sweet Bits, LOST($17.00)
Race 6:$7.00 Shipsterns, LOST($19.00)
Race 6:$7.50 Back On The Street, LOST($8.60)
Race 7:$7.50 Our Boy Kev, LOST($13.50)
Race 8:$9.00 Lawson, WIN($12.00)
Race 9:$3.50 Outback Lil, LOST($6.20)
Race 9:$7.00 Academy Kiss, LOST($11.50)

Townsville
Race 1:$6.50 Lighted, LOST($7.40)
Race 2:$7.00 Kalahari Prince, LOST($6.60)
Race 2:$8.50 Karioislastchoice, LOST($85.00)
Race 3:$5.50 Peaceful Missile, LOST($75.00)
Race 3:$7.00 Love Your Ways, LOST($7.00)
Race 4:$3.20 Expecting, LOST($6.00)
Race 4:$4.40 Dominate King, LOST($6.80)
Race 5:$6.50 Sir Coniston, LOST($10.00)
Race 6:$4.40 Secret Rain, LOST($5.80)
Race 6:$7.50 Tatanka, LOST($4.00)
Race 6:$7.50 Lux, LOST($16.00)
Race 7:$3.20 Mighty Mite, LOST($4.30)
Race 7:$8.50 Black Wattle, LOST($22.00)


Todays Results:
PP odds or below : 16 Selections for $-7.90 LOSS
Under $5.00 : 9 Selections for $-6.40 LOSS
Under $10.00 : 32 Selections for $3.20 PROFIT
Under $20.00 : 45 Selections for $-10.80 LOSS
Taking All selections: 56 Selections for $0.20 PROFIT


Overall Results :
PP odds or below : 28 Selections for $0.40 Profit
Under $5.00 : 20 Selections for $0.90 Profit
Under $10.00 : 61 Selections for $11.10 Profit
Under $20.00 : 83 Selections for $6.10 Profit
Taking All selections: 96 Selections for $-5.90 LOSS

[Sportz]

Boy oh boy, it turned into a brilliant WINNING system today at Ballina!!! :eek:

[wesmip1]

Yeah if you drop Ballina out today then its results are looking quite good. But you take the good with the bad.

Hopefully tommorrow will have some more losers.

[wesmip1]

Just looking over the selections tommorrow. There will be 90 selecitons minus scratchings.

Its definitely a high volume laying system.

[AngryPixie]

Just looking over the selections tommorrow. There will be 90 selecitons minus scratchings.


Mmm. That'll keep you busy. Few too many you think? ;)

Pre Post < $10 (Racing and Sports PP odds)

Wes

For what it's worth I've never had much success with using price as an eliminating filter. I find it starts me thinking about risk too early in the process. I like to be sure in my mind about a selections losing chances first, put a price to that opinion, and then use that price as a secondary filter when the "private information" presents itself in the market.

[Chrome Prince]

Just a word of warning, the R&S prepost prices are the worst indicators I have ever used, most races are completely way off the mark.
While you can't expect any prepost to be accurate, these are just shocking.

Got burned today badly http://www.propun.com.au/forums/images/icons/icon8.gif

[wesmip1]

Results today:

Got a nice $60 winner :( which ruined the overall stats but anyone that lays a horse at $60 needs to be shot especially is PP it was under $10.00

Interestingly under $5, Under $10 and Under $20 are all showing a profit. Its also easy to see that if you do not take those that start under the PP odds you are going to do much better as the market agrees that the horse has little chance.

Canterbury
Race 1:$3.70 Military Orders, LOST($9.00)
Race 1:$7.00 Superreact, LOST($150.00)
Race 1:$7.50 Seen Im, LOST($38.00)
Race 2:$2.90 Portugal, LOST($4.20)
Race 2:$6.00 Shaan, WIN($2.48)
Race 2:$6.50 Ready To Impress, LOST($16.50)
Race 3:$6.50 Hennessy Beau, LOST($5.80)
Race 3:$7.00 Scission, LOST($12.00)
Race 3:$8.00 No Name For A Lady LOST($13.00)
Race 4:$3.50 French Beret, LOST($9.00)
Race 4:$7.00 Aftadaka, LOST($18.00)
Race 4:$7.50 Chelmsford, LOST($70.00)
Race 4:$10.00 Mr Clangtastic, LOST($27.00)
Race 5:$2.50 Hesiod, LOST($5.00)
Race 5:$7.00 Dane Flyer, LOST($40.00)
Race 6:$8.50 Oakland Lad, LOST($11.00)
Race 7:$7.00 Skilful Simone, WIN ($7.40)
Cranbourne
Race 1:$3.00 Stormy Image, LOST($4.30)
Race 1:$6.00 Barb's ********** Rose, LOST($11.00)
Race 2:$7.50 Darudi, LOST($4.70)
Race 3:$7.00 Poker Face, LOST($25.00)
Race 3:$7.00 Shall We Dance LOST($8.20)
Race 3:$7.50 Blazeland, LOST($7.60)
Race 4:$3.70 Sunboy Tiger, LOST($17.50)
Race 4:$7.50 All The Seas, LOST($13.50)
Race 4:$9.00 Please Tomeetya LOST($22.00)
Race 5:$5.50 Choochookwa, LOST($7.20)
Race 5:$7.50 Ida Doris, LOST($4.80)
Race 6: $5.50 Benson, LOST($6.20)
Race 6:$7.00 Testabel, LOST($12.50)
Race 8:$4.20 Dawnstorm LOST($7.20)

Ipswich
Race 1:$7.50 Ryjatah, LOST($7.40)
Race 1:$7.50 Compulsive, LOST($25.00)
Race 2:$7.50 Mr Rumpole LOST($8.40)
Race 2:$9.00 Reflect And Dream, LOST($19.50)
Race 3:$4.40 Fortunate Choice, WIN($3.55)
Race 3:$7.50 Preternaturally, LOST($17.50)
Race 4:$7.50 Sprites Delight, LOST($9.20)
Race 4:$9.00 Little Imp LOST($9.40)
Race 5:$3.20 Boom Shaker, LOST($7.00)
Race 5:$9.00 Creswina, LOST($7.20)
Race 6:$4.40 Reckon I'm Ready, LOST($16.50)
Race 6:$9.00 Builder Bob, LOST($13.50)
Race 7:$5.50 The Big Easy, WIN ($4.30)
Race 7:$7.00 Duomo, LOST($9.40)
Race 7:$7.00 Coolibah Kid LOST($9.80)
Race 8:$7.00 Southern Sister, WIN($6.60)
Race 8:$7.50 Marzipan Saga LOST($6.80)

Kalgoorlie
Race 1:$6.50 Accounted, LOST($36.00)
Race 1:$7.00 Nola's Joy, LOST($12.00)
Race 2:$3.50 Low Bid, LOST($9.40)
Race 2:$5.50 Diggerainslie LOST($11.00)
Race 2:$6.00 Point Me Home, LOST($6.20)
Race 3:$5.50 Beau Velour, LOST($9.80)
Race 3:$7.50 Speed Laser, LOST($9.90)
Race 3:$7.50 Viva La Covert, LOST($4.10)
Race 4:$6.00 Authenticate, LOST($8.60)
Race 4:$7.00 Captain Zero, LOST($10.50)
Race 6:$4.20 Dancing Granada LOST($3.30)
Race 6:$5.50 Speedy Satina, LOST($5.20)
Race 6:$7.00 Modification, LOST($16.00)
Race 7:$3.50 Jolly Lad, LOST($4.80)
Race 7:$4.20 Tribune, LOST($9.20)
Race 7:$6.50 Monsoon, LOST($6.00)
Race 7:$8.50 Right Price, WIN($15.00)

Murray Bridge
Race 1:$3.70 Better Than One, LOST($2.68)
Race 1:$7.50 Easton Rocker, LOST($8.20)
Race 1:$7.50 Malibu Doll, LOST($11.50)
Race 1:$9.00 Giant Killer, WIN($60.00)
Race 2:$5.50 Palomuse, LOST($9.20)
Race 2:$7.00 Nip The Tip WIN($5.90)
Race 3:$3.00 Aptitry, LOST($6.40)
Race 3:$7.50 Northwood, LOST($90.00)
Race 3:$9.00 Rain Strategy, WIN($5.50)
Race 4:$5.50 Keepthedreamalive, LOST($4.90)
Race 4:$7.50 Moi, LOST($9.60)
Race 5:$3.00 Dirtyword, LOST($3.85)
Race 5:$7.50 Snazzy Lad, LOST($9.00)
Race 5:$9.00 Barter Time, LOST($50.00)
Race 6:$6.00 Cobby Princess, LOST($14.50)
Race 6:$7.00 Octoberfive, LOST($5.90)
Race 7:$5.50 Sure Paint, LOST($13.00)
Race 7:$7.50 Billy Baroo, LOST($8.40)
Race 7:$9.00 Rubeve, LOST($16.00)
Race 8:$9.00 Onenightinparis, LOST($19.00)

Todays Results:
PP odds or below : 17 Selections for $-11.33 LOSS
Under $5.00 : 14 Selections for $3.67 PROFIT
Under $10.00 : 50 Selections for $14.27 PROFIT
Under $20.00 : 73 Selections for $22.27 PROFIT
Taking All selections: 85 Selections for $-25.73 LOSS

Overall Results :
PP odds or below : 45 Selections for $10.93 LOSS
Under $5.00 : 34 Selections for $4.57 Profit
Under $10.00 : 111 Selections for $29.37 Profit
Under $20.00 : 156 Selections for $28.37 Profit
Taking All selections: 181 Selections for $-31.63 LOSS

[wesmip1]

Angry Pixie,

Lots of selections means higher turnover which means it should revert to the mean quicker and you find out if the seleciton method is good or not.

I agree with you on using price as a filter. I started to use it as I was going to post the selections up early. I could probably drop it now and just look at horses that are under $20 1 min prior to jump.

CP,

Agree with the PP as well. Some races are spot on and others are very poor. As I said above will not be using it anymore. Will just look at horses under $20 prior to jump.

Good Luck.

[wesmip1]

High turnover again today which is something I love in a system.

Starting to make some profit finally. Had a few bad days but the extra races in the last couple of days have made a big difference.

In 4 days of testing I have managed to get through 161 selections in my target range of less than $10. This has produced a nice profit of 33% ( minus commissions).

Can everyone do this ... Probably not. There are two many selections per race that you need to sit and quickly get onto. You are going to need some sort of program to help you out. Plus it takes around 1.5 hours to get the selections for a meeting narrowed down and then you find most of them do not fall into your price range. For a day with four meetings it is 6 hours work. The next problem is hoping you can get enough on each horse at the desired odds to make it worthwhile. Staying under $10 helps with this issue.

Bunbury
Race 1:HULA MOON LOST($6.00)
Race 1:FULLGLAS LOST($9.80)
Race 2:GO YOU DANCER LOST($9.00)
Race 2:CLASSIC RAIDER LOST($9.00)
Race 2:SWEET SIMANCA LOST($14.50)
Race 3:RACSO LOST($14.50)
Race 4:COSIGNED LOST($17.00)
Race 4:KISEKI KID LOST($12.00)
Race 4:PRELUDE WIN($15.50)
Race 4:ZARISK LOST($20.00)
Race 4:TREVANNA LOST($8.40)
Race 5:NUTS AND BOLTS LOST($15.50)
Race 5:ITALIAN FIRE LOST($15.00)
Race 5:ASCOT INN LOST($10.50)
Race 5:KISS A DANE LOST($6.60)
Race 5:SHARLINGTON ACE LOST($4.60)
Race 6:THIRD UMPIRE LOST($6.40)
Race 6:SEYMOUR PARK LOST($11.00)
Race 6:PRINCESS HANNAH LOST($6.80)
Race 7:GANGWAY LOST($15.50)
Race 8:JOMATESI LOST($9.60)
Race 8:SIDEWAYS WIN($20.00)
Race 8:MALLOKUP ROAD LOST($12.00)
Race 8:OZCAPADES LOST($15.00)

Mackay
Race 1:LIGHT AFTER DARK LOST($10.00)
Race 1:CRIMINAL HILL LOST($15.50)
Race 2:EARS TO VICTORY LOST($4.50)
Race 2:YA WAHEED WIN($12.00)
Race 3:MR CRISTI LOST($13.00)
Race 4:YOU OME ONE LOST($15.00)
Race 4:BIANSMART LOST($15.00)
Race 4 DODA LOST($8.80)
Race 5:ONITSEAR WIN($5.90)
Race 5:NOWADAYS LOST($19.00)
Race 5:TARA GOLD LOST($7.20)
Race 6:STARRY DANCER LOST($10.50)
Race 7:CHABBAZ LOST($10.50)
Race 7:RACETRACK LOST($12.00)
Race 7:OUR QUICK TESS LOST($19.00)
Race 8:LION KINGDOM LOST($6.40)
Race 8:ENDORPHIN LOST($14.00)
Race 8:SAM BENJ LOST($13.00)
Race 8:I'M FABULOUS LOST($15.00)

Mooney Valley
Race 1 DIRT MUSIC WIN($8.00)
Race 1:HIMSTEDT LOST($3.35)
Race 1:SHE'S GOT HEART LOST($14.50)
Race 2:RONDAHL LOST($9.80)
Race 2:BIG PLUM DUCK LOST($9.20)
Race 2:CHARACTER LOST($4.40)
Race 2:SISTER MADRID LOST($11.00)
Race 2:GOLDEN GABRIELLE LOST($11.50)
Race 3:BEL MER LOST($7.00)
Race 3:MUSICALLY LOST($9.60)
Race 3:NUCLEAR FORCE LOST($2.36)
Race 3:TESTA GOT LUCKY LOST($15.00)
Race 3:GRISBI LOST($11.50)
Race 4:WILDWOOD ROAD LOST($14.50)
Race 4:SPYCAM LOST($14.50)
Race 5 DALZIEL LOST($11.00)
Race 5:VICARAGE GATE WIN($4.00)
Race 5:JEUNE CHEVAL LOST($11.50)
Race 6:STORM FURY LOST($9.20)
Race 6:MR TEMPTATION LOST($9.20)
Race 6:WINDAWOPPA LOST($16.50)
Race 7:TEARS 'N' TRIUMPH LOST($6.60)
Race 7:TRIPPY LOST($15.00)
Race 8:SPUN OUT LOST($6.00)

Seymour
Race 1:ELMFIELD LOST($1.74)
Race 1:INDI LOST($7.80)
Race 1:TWEETY PEA LOST($19.50)
Race 2:BIG JOHN LOST($14.00)
Race 2:TAXICAB LOST($14.00)
Race 2:GEE LAND EXPRESS LOST($12.50)
Race 3:ENCROACHER LOST($7.20)
Race 3:EUROFIGHTER LOST($8.80)
Race 3:MONTAON LOST($11.50)
Race 4:RENEW VOWS LOST($8.80)
Race 4:WHITE SATIN LOST($18.00)
Race 5 DASHYM LOST($6.00)
Race 5:MELETE WIN($11.00)
Race 5:PRIDE 'N' TALAQ LOST($5.10)
Race 5:LASTING PEACE LOST($16.50)
Race 6:PRINCE RAHEED LOST($11.50)
Race 6:APOLINA LOST($17.00)
Race 6:OUR COURT LOST($17.00)
Race 7:TOP SPRINGS LOST($13.00)
Race 7:FYODOR LOST($8.40)
Race 7:GET YOUR GUN LOST($12.50)
Race 8 DOOSRA DIAMOND LOST($11.00)
Race 8:MONTE CASSINO WIN($11.00)
Race 8:YOU BEAUTIFUL DOLL LOST($13.00)

Wyong
Race 1:CHRIS RULES LOST($6.80)
Race 1:SHANGHAIED LOST($2.80)
Race 1:FEATHERS 'N' FUR LOST($19.50)
Race 1:HERE'N'NOW LOST($16.50)
Race 2:EAGLE CONCERTO LOST($7.80)
Race 2:MR MARITIME LOST($3.30)
Race 2:SPURNOVER LOST($9.00)
Race 3 DECORATEUR LOST($7.40)
Race 3:HANURABI LOST($17.00)
Race 4: DEBATABLE LOST($10.50)
Race 4:KAHAALAA LOST($20.00)
Race 4:SHAKA ZULU LOST($15.00)
Race 5:REGAL INHERITANCE LOST($11.00)
Race 5:THE FANGSTA LOST($3.50)
Race 5:OUR MISTAKE WIN($6.00)
Race 6:LEICA ****** LOST($4.60)
Race 6:BENTLEY ESS LOST($6.20)
Race 6:RUNAWAY FRISCO LOST($18.00)
Race 6:PARTY CHARTER LOST($13.00)
Race 7:MISS RIGHT NOTE LOST($13.50)
Race 7:MEAN BEANS LOST($10.00)
Race 7:GRAND GENERAL LOST($12.00)
Race 7:HOBOUB EL RICH LOST($9.20)
Race 7:PRINCESS IRIS WIN($15.00)
Race 7:ACINONYX LOST($6.80)
Race 8: DANDENONG LOST($14.00)

Todays Results:
Under $5.00 : 12 Selections for $7.00 PROFIT
Under $10.00 : 50 Selections for $24.10 PROFIT
Under $20.00 : 91 Selections for $7.00 PROFIT

Overall Results :
Under $5.00 : 46 Selections for $11.57 Profit
Under $10.00 : 161 Selections for $53.47 Profit
Under $20.00 : 247 Selections for $35.37 Profit

[wesmip1]

All,

I thought I would just post some interesting stats that I was looking at today.

Recently there has been a big push for Marias staking method and it has been trialled on a few threads on here. I ran the results for the last 4 days using Marias staking plan and a 1% level stake. Adjustments were made to the stakes each day depending on the bank level.

Please note that I didn't use the exact same rules I posted here earlier in the thread as I have added a few extra rules to weed out another area of winners.

Results are :
Starting Bank: $2000 for both banks.

Day 1:
Marias Staking Plan = $108.40 PROFIT
Level Stakes at %1 = $158.00 PROFIT

Day 2:
Marias Staking Plan = $18.40 PROFIT
Level Stakes at %1 = $67.20 PROFIT
Day 3:
Marias Staking Plan = $113.25 PROFIT
Level Stakes at %1 = $313.50 PROFIT

Day 4:
Marias Staking Plan = $356.40 PROFIT
Level Stakes at %1 = $652.50 PROFIT

End Results:
Marias Account = $2605.45
Level Stakes Bank account = $3191.20

In the case of this system Level stakes seems to work better.

Good Luck.

[michaelg]

Hi, Wesmip1.

Your system's looking very promising.

I have always suspected that level staking was the way to go for laying except maybe when one frames a market and lays the "unders" to ones prices, and some of my early testing had supported this.

Your comparison is quite an eye-opener especially as your four days of testing involves over 200 races and has beat Maria's method hands-down every day.

Since reading Maria's amazing posting I have wondered how she would have fared if she had stuck to level stakes and increased them by a fixed percentage of her bank after every winning day, just as you have done.

[stugots]

All,

I thought I would just post some interesting stats that I was looking at today.

Recently there has been a big push for Marias staking method and it has been trialled on a few threads on here. I ran the results for the last 4 days using Marias staking plan and a 1% level stake. Adjustments were made to the stakes each day depending on the bank level.

Please note that I didn't use the exact same rules I posted here earlier in the thread as I have added a few extra rules to weed out another area of winners.

Results are :
Starting Bank: $2000 for both banks.

Day 1:
Marias Staking Plan = $108.40 PROFIT
Level Stakes at %1 = $158.00 PROFIT

Day 2:
Marias Staking Plan = $18.40 PROFIT
Level Stakes at %1 = $67.20 PROFIT
Day 3:
Marias Staking Plan = $113.25 PROFIT
Level Stakes at %1 = $313.50 PROFIT

Day 4:
Marias Staking Plan = $356.40 PROFIT
Level Stakes at %1 = $652.50 PROFIT

End Results:
Marias Account = $2605.45
Level Stakes Bank account = $3191.20

In the case of this system Level stakes seems to work better.

Good Luck.


wesmip1, i found out much the same when applying maria's plan to my past result & then running it live for only a short period, that is it would/did substantially cut into my profits, & as i am currently running at around 20% thats the last thing i need

[AngryPixie]

Wes

Are the prices you're posting from Betfair Advantage, or did you actually get these?

[wesmip1]

Angry Pixie,

Just using Prices collected from Betfair Advantage at the moment.

I wrote a program that checks the prices 1 min prior to jump and they are usually within 5-10% of the Betfair Advantage tool so as a testing tool I don't mind using it.

I am currently writing a program to find the selections automatically for me now but it will probably take me a few weeks as I have other commitments (4 month old daughter) that have higher priority.

So in answer to your question. Yes I am using BAT prices for testing at the moment.

I suspect I will have a real time testing tool written very soon.

Good Luck.

[AngryPixie]

as i am currently running at around 20% thats the last thing i need

Stugots

20% wow! Well done. Over what time frame have you achieved this?

[wesmip1]

Saturdays Results were mixed. Showed a considerable loss for under $10 bets on the day but still in profit overall.

Sat Results:
Under $5.00 : 26 Selections for $3.60 PROFIT
Under $10.00 : 98 Selections for $-18.30 LOSS
Under $20.00 : 212 Selections for $25.70 PROFIT

Overall Results :
Under $5.00 : 72 Selections for $15.17 Profit
Under $10.00 : 259 Selections for $35.17 Profit
Under $20.00 : 459 Selections for $61.07 Profit

Good Luck

[stugots]

Stugots

20% wow! Well done. Over what time frame have you achieved this?

into month 4 following the same selection methods, not long i know & am expecting a 'correction' any time soon, but still so far so good.

[AngryPixie]

into month 4 following the same selection methods, not long i know & am expecting a 'correction' any time soon, but still so far so good.

It's not how long you've been using a method, it's how likely it is to continue turning a profit. Interested to hear what a Chi-test turns up. :)

[wesmip1]

I finally got BAT working and have completed Sundays results:

Sundays Results:
Under $5.00 : 17 Selections for $-7.85 LOSS
Under $10.00 : 77 Selections for $12.95 PROFIT
Under $20.00 :158 Selections for $15.95 PROFIT

Overall Results :
Under $5.00 : 99 Selections for $7.32 Profit
Under $10.00 : 336 Selections for $48.12 Profit
Under $20.00 : 617 Selections for $77.02 Profit

Good Luck.

[SeeDee]

Well done Westmip; keep it up.

Refering to your comparison to Maria's method, again well done, but I don't think she ever claimed that her staking was anything other than conservative/long term. She was accepting loss of potentially greater profits as a cost of "staying in the game" over a longer term. Your system seems to generate a lot more lays which, as was said earlier, probably finds the mean quicker allowing a more aggressive staking system.

By the way, I obtained a Betfair account but it was suspended as I live in WA. I telephoned them to ask if there was anything I could do and was told that, even if I used an address outside of WA, my internet details would give me away. Has everyone else found this to be true, or is there a way around it?

[wesmip1]

Mondays Results:
Under $5.00 : 21 Selections for $-2.20 LOSS
Under $10.00 :104 Selections for $ 1.00 LOSS
Under $20.00 :210 Selections for $35.60 PROFIT

Overall Results :
Under $5.00 : 120 Selections for $5.12 Profit
Under $10.00 : 440 Selections for $49.12 Profit
Under $20.00 : 827 Selections for $112.62 Profit


Good Luck

[stugots]

that sucks seedee, not sure what these 'internet details' would refer to, other than the details you provided when opening the account, & considering the possible fines or jail time (ffs!) it might be worth waiting until the wa govt wake up to themselves

[stugots]

It's not how long you've been using a method, it's how likely it is to continue turning a profit. Interested to hear what a Chi-test turns up. :)

ap, i am reasonably proficient when it comes to excel, however am clueless as to how i would use chitest to analyse my results & what any results would actualy mean

found http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel/HP052090121033.aspx somewhat useful but thats as far as i got -

my results for the last 17 weeks if your interested

total races analysed 780
total races bet on 479
total horses layed 682
total race collects +579
total race payouts -407 (they still hurt, esp the $16.50 **************)
net before comm +172
5% comm -29
net after comm +143
pot +20.9%

min price layed 1.90
max price layed 19.50

there has been a steady decline in pot since i stopped laying over $12, a decision i may need to revisit.

[wesmip1]

All,

I am happy with the test period of this method. Its there if anyone else wants to use it, as I have shown that it can make a profit.

The results are :

Under $5.00 : 120 Selections for $5.12 Profit
Under $10.00 : 440 Selections for $49.12 Profit
Under $20.00 : 827 Selections for $112.62 Profit

This shows that by eliminating the top few selections given by the neurals and the unitab top rater you can find some good laying propositions out there.

Most systems on here don't have 440 or 827 selections as a test sample. Yes it was a short time frame of only 1 week but I don't have the time to continue with this method as I manually have been checking the results.

Good Luck for those who want to continue following it.

[AngryPixie]

Stugots

I've posted this before, but you'll get the idea here

http://www.0dd5.com/matharchie.shtml

Put the resulting figure in Excel like this to give you a percentage value

=1-CHIDIST(your figure,1)

That's the chance that the success of your method is due to some factor other than luck.

[stugots]

finaly got around to having a closer look at archie & his mate chi, & came up with the following which include my paper & live testing since day one -

runners 1,054
winners 92
% avg winners 8.73%
expected no. winners 131.46
average odds 0.125
average advantage 0.699812145
archie score 13.53
archie probability 0.0003
success due to factors other than luck 99.97%

dont think i managed to stuff the calcs up & not to sure abt that last figure as the archie score table max's out at 12, all seems a bit too good to be true, so will take it all with a grain of salt at this early stage & retest when i get to 2000 runners

[AngryPixie]

Stugots

I work those numbers out as

Advantage: 4.31%
Success due to factors other than luck: 99.98%

If you don't change anything these number will remain pretty static now. I'd go for it.

Really nice. Well done :D

[wesmip1]

I just ran the maths of the archie on a new system I am looking at and I came up with the following :

runners 850
winners 350
% avg winners 41%
expected no. winners 209
average odds 0.247
average advantage 1.669
archie score 12.39
archie probability 0.0005 (Table only goes to 12)
success due to factors other than luck 99.95%

This is a betting system not a laying system.

Angry Pixie I have read up on this archie stuff but still don't understand how it all works.

Good Luck.