Form Factors

[wise one]

It’s been awhile since I have posted anything but just lately I’ve been thinking about what is the best indicator as to how a horse is going to perform esp at a metro meeting.

I have come up with 2. These being Current Form and the horses ability to run time.

I look only at the current form, as I believe this is one of the best indicators as to how a horse is going in its current preparation. Some horses do not regain form after a spell, or they change stables and their form improves.

As to their ability to run time, some horses would be flat out running 1.10.00 sec for 1200 metres, while others can run high 1.08 to low 1.09 seconds constantly

So with all that I prefer to bet on horses that have a good current form line and can run good times. I have been following this recently on Brisbane races with some success so it is time to put the selections up here and see how they hold up. The staking plan is levels stakes to win only on all runners

So my tips for Saturday

Race 4 No 6 Three Chances
Race 5 No 1 Miss Judgement
Race 6 No 2 Hello Possums
No 4 Milady Clang
No 10 Nevada Gambler
Race 7 No 7 Omnitrader
No 11 Kutalo
No 13 Testify


If the track is worse than dead , then no bets

Wise One

Bet Smart Bet Wise

[wesmip1]

They look like some solid selections.

Good Luck

[crash]

I agree about current form but not sure about requiring the ability to run time. Miss Finland can't run time and apart from the massive amount of money she's won, they are calling her a 'champion'!

Miss Finland's:
RACE [all on 'good' tracks]
Race Time
Track Record
Difference in lengths

McNeil Stakes
1.10.65
1.07.74
-17.46

Tranquil Star
1.24.39
1.21.20
-19.14

Edward Manifold
1.37.08
1.34.08
-18.00

Thousand Guineas
1.37.19
1.34.28
-17.46

Cox Plate
2.06.89
2.03.54
-20.10

Oaks
2.37.16
2.33.00
-24.96

Orr Stakes
1.23.24
1.21.20
-12.24

Angus Armanasco
1.36.60
1.34.28
-13.92

Cadbury Guineas
1.36.09
1.34.28
-10.86
---------------------------------------------

Sure the ability of a horse to run a fast sectional helps, but a trainer who has the knack of choosing the right races to suit his runners [race placement] and when to run them [program timing], is more important than ability to run time. There is plenty of horses that can run time who have serious trouble winning due to poor choices by poor trainers and vis-a-vis, as the above times example show.

[wise one]

Crash

I do agree with you about horse placement, but there are always exceptions to the rules and I believe Miss Finland is one of them. In Her case I think you have to look at the class of horse she has been beating. Banc De Fortune won a F/M listed race (Aspiration), which wasn’t a strong field. Just Dancing has won only 1 race and that was a 3 yo Fillies on a heavy track at Randwick back in August last year. As for Tuesday Joy, she was ridden upside down, so you just put the big pen line through that.

All that aside as I don’t want to get into the Miss Finland thing as to if she is a champion or not, I believe the horses ability to run time overall (not just a fast sectional) is a very good indicator as to it’s class and if it will be competitive in it’s current race.

This is Miss Judgments Form line this preparation, so you can see from her current form and her ability to run good time over the distance that she is a good bet for Saturday



Class class 4
Dist 1000 m
Track Record 56.00 sec
Time Taken 56.72 sec
Time Difference 0.72 sec
Placing unp

Class F/M Class 3
Dist 1010 m
Track Record 56.63 sec
Time Taken 59.28 sec
Time Difference 2.98 sec
Placing 1 st

Class Class 4
Dist 1030 m
Track Record 57.75 sec
Time Taken 58.85 sec
Time Difference 1.10 sec
Placing 1 st

Class Class 5
Dist 1000 m
Track Record 56.70 sec
Time Taken 58.06 sec
Time Difference 1.36 sec
Placing 1 st

Class F/M RS 0 MW
Dist 1200 m
Track Record 1.08.10
Time Taken 1.13.00
Time Difference 4.90 sec
Placing unp

Class Class 6
Dist 1000 m
Track Record 56.70 sec
Time Taken 57.75 sec
Time Difference 1.05 sec
Placing 1 st

Class F/M Listed
Dist 1200 m
Track Record 1.08.10
Time Taken 1.09.71
Time Difference 1.61 sec
Placing 2 nd

Class F/M Qual
Dist 1200 m
Track Record 1.07.88
Time Taken 1.09.21
Time Difference 1.33 sec
Placing 1 st

Class Qual
Dist 1200 m
Track Record 1.08.34
Time Taken 1.08.48
Time Difference 0.14 sec
Placing 2 nd

For me the $2.70 that was available on TAB Sports bet was good odds

Wise One

Bet Smart Bet Wise

[crash]

I haven't looked at the race she's in yet. What's happening overall is there is some very ordinary horses around. Plenty of Class 3 horses or worse are turning up in G1's and being won by some very ordinary horses too.

Beyond 1100m I'd be looking at recent sectional times of runners for pointers rather than race times as mostly it's sit and sprint now.

[crash]

Well I've looked at the race and I'd want more than $2.70 to back Miss Judgment. She might very well win but is up 4kg and is against a fast one:
Chosen Goddess who is only up 1/2 a kg. and has a top jock too. It won second up last prep. and is second up here. Both horses are mid-pacers and have reasonable barriers.

[wise one]

In the case of Miss Judgement I know that she is up 4 kg, but the race has been scaled up 2 kg.

As for Chosen Goddess, she does have very good recent form (won both of her last 2 starts), but she has only won 1 race in a respectable time (1.91 sec outside track record time). As for her second up record she won a F/M Mdn, which is slightly differnet in class to a F/M Listed. Also she is up in class and up in weight (the double whammy), where as Miss Judgement is down in class and up in weigh.

So for me personally I would prefer to back a horse with good current form and a proven record that they can run time


Wise One


Bet Smart Bet Wise

[Chuck]

How about using the neurals, using just Current Form and Time Rating on 5?

selections for the same races at eagle farm would be:

Race 4: 11 Falconten
Race 5: 8 No Mistake
Race 6: 10 Nevada Gambler
Race 7: 6 Messiaen

[crash]

The ratings from the form service I use [very good ratings] have Miss Judgment on 15 and Chosen Goddess on 17. Both are good at the track and I think Chosen Goddess is a definite improver. What I would back is the one with the best value as I think either could win.

Chuck has thrown another horse in the mix which [haven't checked] is probably a chance too. If there are 3 chances, $2.70 is lousy odds for any horse in the race.

[Chuck]

How about using the neurals, using just Current Form and Time Rating on 5?

selections for the same races at eagle farm would be:

Race 4: 11 Falconten
Race 5: 8 No Mistake
Race 6: 10 Nevada Gambler
Race 7: 6 Messiaen

Race 4: 11 Falconten 1st $20.60 & $4.70
Race 5: 8 No Mistake XXX
Race 6: 10 Nevada Gambler XXX
Race 7: 6 Messiaen 3rd $2.90

[crash]

Kick on Chuck!

[wise one]

Race 4 No 6 Three Chances Unp
Race 5 No 1 Miss Judgement 2nd
Race 6 No 2 Hello Possums 3rd
Race 6 No 4 Milady Clang Unp
Race 6 No 10 Nevada Gambler Unp
Race 7 No 7 Omnitrader Unp
Race 7 No 11 Kutalo Unp
Race 7 No 13 Testify Unp

Well as soon as you post your picks up here they fall flat

I won’t be giving up after round 1 and well be back tomorrow with Monday’s picks

Top effort Chuck you have taken off with a hiss and a roar, hope that you had money on them


Wise One

Bet Smart Bet Wise

[crash]

Something to be said for not backing [mostly] favorites: 'A good way to go broke'.

[Chuck]

i'll try and prove it wasn't a fluke with Doncaster day: (watch the forum curse strike :))

randwick 9th monday
Race 1: 10 Nediym's Dream
Race 2: 4 Raheights
Race 3: 6 Eclair Passion
Race 4: 3 Cape Breton
Race 5: 5 Pekalan
Race 6: 1 Honor in War
Race 7: 11 Haradasun
Race 8: 3 Hot 'n' Ready
Race 9: 4 Count Milano

[wise one]

Lets hope that Monday well be better than Saturday after a complete white wash

Same rules apply, level stakes across all runners and no bets if the track is slow or heavy

Race 4 # 2 Winsome Loot
Race 4 # 3 Slim Pickings
Race 4 # 8 Mosta House
Race 5 # 2 Testimonial
Race 7 # 4 Birthday Bash


Wise One


Bet Smart Bet Wise

[crash]

I suppose I should put some tips in too as I'm sure the forum curse applies to everyone ....except chuck by the looks of it :-)

I'll be back!

[crash]

I suppose I should put some tips in too as I'm sure the forum curse applies to everyone ....except chuck by the looks of it :-)

I'll be back!


CAULFIELD Monday 9th. April
r2/4 Mistake Creek
r4/6 Amarazetti
r5/13 Amazing Lover
r6/1 Chiack
r7/3 Illustration

[crash]

Amazing Lover scr. so I'll throw in a roughy low in the weights:
r5/14 Blackmill

[wise one]

Race 4 # 2 Winsome Loot Unp
Race 4 # 3 Slim Pickings Unp
Race 4 # 8 Mosta House 1st $7.80
Race 5 # 2 Testimonial Unp
Race 7 # 4 Birthday Bash 1st $4.00


A better result today, spend 5 units, return 11.8 units

Over all spend of 13 units, for 11.8 units returned

Will post selections for Sat on Fri night

I was hoping to get a thread going of what people consider the most important information that they use when they do their selections. As I said in the original post that I look at current form and the horse’s ability to run good time

Wise One

Bet Smart Bet Wise

[Chuck]

Race 1: 10 Nediym's Dream - scr
Race 2: 4 Raheights - XXX
Race 3: 6 Eclair Passion - scr
Race 4: 3 Cape Breton - 4th
Race 5: 5 Pekalan - XXX
Race 6: 1 Honor in War - 3rd $3.50
Race 7: 11 Haradasun - 1st $4.40 & $2.10
Race 8: 3 Hot 'n' Ready - 1st $5.00 & $1.90
Race 9: 4 Count Milano - XXX

In: 7 units
Out: 9.4

Overall
In: 11 Units
Out: 30 Units

[crash]

Good going Wise one and Chuck!

Mistake Creek @ $4.50w and a 2nd from Amarazetti, so no joy from my lot of scrubbers. 50c loss from the win only [I don't place bet].

[Chuck]

Oaks Day

Randwick:

Race 1: 3 Super Dragon
Race 2: 2 Al Be Nimble
Race 3: 2 Montgresin
Race 4: 11 Matilda Princess
Race 5: 7 Weekend in Paris
Race 6: 1 Tuesday Joy
Race 7: 5 Posadas
Race 8: 1 Eight Moons

[crash]

Randwick:

r3/3 Beehives
r4/2 Reverenza
r5/6 Sliding Cube
Oaks: 3 Banc De Fortune
r7/2 Anwaar

[crash]

Randwick:

r3/3 Beehives
r4/2 Reverenza $2.90w
r5/6 Sliding Cube $3.60w
Oaks: 3 Banc De Fortune
r7/2 Anwaar $3.40w

Must have been my turn to win.

[Chuck]

Race 1: 3 Super Dragon - 2nd $2.40
Race 2: 2 Al Be Nimble - xxx
Race 3: 2 Montgresin - xxx
Race 4: 11 Matilda Princess - xxx
Race 5: 7 Weekend in Paris - xxx
Race 6: 1 Tuesday Joy - 3rd $1.30
Race 7: 5 Posadas - 2nd $1.20
Race 8: 1 Eight Moons - xxx

In 17
Out 30

[crash]

MV Sat.
2/3 Jesterchine
3/4 Idria
4/7 Hooker Road
5/6 Paris Zero
6/6 Assent
7/1 Collodi
8/3 Dracs Back

[Chuck]

sat randwick

1: 2 Falaise
2: 7 Rose of Sharon
3: 3 Cheeky Choice
4: 9 Upper Echelon
5: 9 Camarilla
6: 10 Haradasun
7: 6 Blutigeroo
8: 2 Bentley Biscuit
9: 7 Mi Casa

[wise one]

Tomorrow’s selections at Brisbane

Race 4 # 8 Manic Monday
Race 5 # 15 Final Crunch
Race 6 # 1 Go Sequalo
Race 7 # 6 My Son Day
Race 8 # 1 Elegant Roi
Race 8 # 3 Sha’bourne Regal
Race 8 # 4 Sammys Illusion
Race 8 # 9 Monashee Prince

Wise One

Bet Smart Bet Wise

[crash]

MV Sat.
2/3 Jesterchine
3/4 Idria
4/7 Hooker Road
5/6 Paris Zero
6/6 Assent
7/1 Collodi
8/3 Dracs Back

Picked up Hookrer Road $4.90 and Assent $9.90. Still alive in the quadi for 3 units with 3/6 x 6 x 1 x 3 which is scratched so I get the sub. [?]

[crash]

No fat quadi but did OK today with her in doors happy with my efforts here, Brissy and late betting on the last in the west.

Melb. In 14.80 out 7

[wise one]

Well it was a shocker yesterday with zip from 7 runners. But well stick with it for a few more weeks and see how things pan out

Race 4 # 8 Manic Monday Unp
Race 5 # 15 Final Crunch Scr
Race 6 # 1 Go Sequalo 3rd
Race 7 # 6 My Son Day Unp
Race 8 # 1 Elegant Roi 3rd
Race 8 # 3 Sha’bourne Regal Unp
Race 8 # 4 Sammys Illusion Unp
Race 8 # 9 Monashee Prince Unp

Over all spend of 20 units, for 11.8 units returned (not good)

Wise One

Bet smart Bet Wise

[Chuck]

mate an ordinary day for me too

1: 2 Falaise xxx
2: 7 Rose of Sharon 2nd $1.90
3: 3 Cheeky Choice xxx
4: 9 Upper Echelon xxx
5: 9 Camarilla 3rd $1.20
6: 10 Haradasun 2nd $1.20
7: 6 Blutigeroo xxx
8: 2 Bentley Biscuit 1st $3.10 $1.40
9: 7 Mi Casa xxx

In 23
Out 33.1

[Chuck]

we'll try again morphetville and eagle farm

morphetville
1 - 8 night gazer
2 - 5 trick of light
3 - 6 seattle lass
4 - 1 laura's charm
5 - 4 tesbury jack
6 - 1 anamato
7 - 12 universal queen
8 - 5 akhaton

eagle farm
1 - 17 kid de lago
2 - 2 mr sportsman
3 - 3 feline hunter
4 - 10 covert gold
5 - 1 splashing out
6 - 2 love and money
7 - 4 messaien
8 - 5 birthday bash

[wise one]

Tomorrow’s selects for Eagle Farm are

Race 2 # 1 Upilio
Race 2 # 5 Tellasecret
Race 4 # 7 Partygoer
Race 7 # 6 Vocalic
Race 8 # 5 Birthday Bash
Race 8 # 15 Aquareine


Wise One

[wise one]

Race 2 # 1 Upilio 2nd
Race 2 # 5 Tellasecret Unp
Race 4 # 7 Partygoer Unp
Race 7 # 6 Vocalic Scr
Race 8 # 5 Birthday Bash 3rd
Race 8 # 15 Aquareine Unp

Over all spend of 25 units, for 11.8 units returned (not good at all)

Well I think it’s time to finish this thread as after a couple of weeks my system is heading down the dunny at a fast rate of knots

Wise One

Bet Smart Bet Wise

[Chuck]

another bad day, anamato $3.40 and universal queen $2.80 the only winners. it seems with falconten as an outlier its time to put this one to rest

total:

In: 39
Out: 39.3

[crash]

Good day for fav. backers.