Melbourne Cup - Early Pick

[Rogan Josh]

My early pick for the Melbourne Cup is Cyclades.

Set for the Cup, proven at the distance and all track conditions. Top jock will aboard.

Nicely weighted at 51.5kg.

Nice run at Flemington last Saturday, was squeezed badly when the field jumped and clipped heels, putting him back to a clear last.

To make matters worse, the leader took off in front, breaking the field up and leaving Cyclades stuck behind the tailenders some 25 lengths off the pace.

When Lance O'Sullivan finally found some space, Cyclades worked home well to finish fifth.


_________________


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Rogan Josh on 2002-09-10 13:05 ]</font>

[TESTAROSSA]

Rain Gauge for me.

Untried over distance this time last year he proved himself more then capable winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and finishing a brilliant 6th in The Cup.

Last prep finished 3rd behind Old Comrade and Northerly in Australian Cup.

Sure to be better for experience , had 3 runs back this time in with very encouraging efforts over shorter journeys especially last race finishing a very good 5th in Craiglee.

[BettyBoop]

My early selection is Mr Prudent.

Recent 3200m form good with a nose 2nd in the Sydney Cup (good track) with 55.5kg and a close 6th (1.7 lens) in the Morphettville Cup (slow track) with 56.5kg.

Drops to 52kg in the Cup.

[Paddy]

Currently tossing up between Vinnie Roe, Media Puzzle and Mutakarrim.

What can I say, I'm Irish! :grin:

[osulldj]

I agree with Testa.
Rain Gauge for me. Has demonstrated excellent speed and acceleration and shown on more than one occassion that he is up to G1 standard at WFA. Has also proven he goes ok at the distance with a good run in last years cup.

He's a a 5YO now and should be hitting his career peak this prep. The experience of last year and all the factors mentioned above give him pretty good credentials to take out the big race.

[Tab Hunter]

Gee it's so hard when we still have the unknown, will Universal Prince run? I don't think he will, unless he flops in the next couple of starts, which I doubt he will! I just hope my early bets stay sound. I mean, when you think of it, Melbourne Cup runners don't normally come back. So it is a big risk for the owners and trainers to potentially break it's heart, or end up with a niggling injury from the race that they seem to carry around for the rest of there career. Anyway, I like these guys as good solid chances.

Magical Miss
Vinnie Roe
Universal Prince
Rain Gauge
Cyclades

[Equine Investor]

Vinnie Roe is wrapped up in hype - but well deserved. There is no doubt that the horse is exceptional. The factor that worries me is that his next run will be in the Melbourne Cup. In other words the horse has to travel all this way, then will go into quarantine (probably at Sandown), then will not have any proper hitout before the Cup. So nearly 2 months break before running 3200m in a hard and tough race.
Having said that, it's been done before - and other overseas visitors have run bold placings. I think VR will run shorter than it's real price due to hype and reputation.

[Tab Hunter]

Thought this was an interesting artical re Vinnie Roe and Pugin. Reading between the lines, it would seem the connections are trying to secure a better price about Vinnie. What do you think?

Monday, 16 September 2002:

The latest turn in the Melbourne Cup plans of the giant Godolphin stable confirms its stated desire to win Australia's greatest race.

It also confuses the issue like never before.

Godolphin, which races around 2,000 horses worldwide, has provided the runner-up in two of the past three Cups, each time with a horse that had been given little or no chance.

First it was Central Park in 1999 who ran in place of his talented stablemate Kayf Tara who was scratched in the week before the race.

Central Park started at 50-1 and was nosed out by Rogan Josh.

Last year Give The Slip ran at 30-1 for Godolphin and came within three-quarters of a length of beating Ethereal.

Until last weekend, Godolphin had one certain Melbourne Cup runner, Beekeeper, and one possible, Hatha Anna.

But after seeing the Melbourne Cup favourite Vinnie Roe confirm his position at the head of betting by winning the Irish St Ledger at The Curragh on Saturday, Godolphin stepped in and bought the horse that chased him home.

Godolphin's 11th-hour acquisition is Pugin, a four-year-old son of Darshaan trained until Saturday by John Oxx who ran Enzeli in the Cup in 2000.

Oxx said from Ireland he didn't rate Pugin, who is handicapped on 53.5kg in the Cup, in quite the same class as Enzeli, who carried 57kg into 15th place two years ago.

"Enzeli was the better horse, but he didn't handle the firm ground in Australia at all," Oxx said.

"That would be one of the things Pugin has in his favour, he is quite happy on top of the ground.

"The other thing he has going for him is his natural speed."

Pugin has won three races, two of them over 2000m and the other over 2400m, from his nine starts.

On a very firm track on Saturday he fought on strongly to be beaten 1-1/2 lengths by Vinnie Roe who he will meet 5.5kg better in the Cup.

Beekeeper, another horse Godolphin purchased in the past year with the Melbourne Cup in mind, confirmed his Cup claim only 24 hours earlier, returning from injury to win over 2100m at Doncaster.

The third Godolphin Cup runner is Hatha Anna, a winner at Flemington last spring but a disappointment in three starts in England this season.

Which, on past form, probably makes him the one to look out for on Cup day.

While Godolphin may now have three Melbourne Cup runners, Vinnie Roe's trainer Dermot Weld is set to have two following the encouraging effort at the Curragh on Sunday of Media Puzzle.

Media Puzzle joined Vinnie Rowe in quarantine after finishing third in a 3200m handicap.

Godolphin also confirmed today that Grandera, the winner of the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on September 7, was almost certain to run in the WS Cox Plate with Frankie Dettori to ride.

Less encouraging, though is the news from Japan that plans to run international star Eishin Preston in the Moonee Valley feature appear to have stalled.

Moonee Valley racing manager Fred Fox said difficulties making quarantine arrangements that would fit in with Eishin Preston's racing program meant the horse that has won two Group One races in Hong Kong in the past year would almost certainly miss the race.

[Equine Investor]

Interesting stuff there.

It would appear that there is a doubt whether Dermot Weld will bother to bring Vinnie Roe over because of the disadvantage of weight and advantage Pugin has in the race.

Not only that, there is now a question over Magical Miss on a Cup run. They may find something shorter unless she runs ON in the Turnbull on Sunday.

That is why I was reluctant to give a tip so early on as the field changes almost entirely overnight given some flops and other impressive runs.

I remember almost every year (with the exception of Might and Power), that the Cup constantly changes complexion from one moment to the next and you can only really make a judgement Cup week!

[Rogan Josh]

Melbourne Cup - 3rd declerations. I see Cyclades is still in the field.

1 VINNIE ROE (IRE) Dermot Weld 59
2 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 58
3 SKY HEIGHTS (NZ) Colin Alderson 57
4 JARDINES LOOKOUT (IRE) Alan Jarvis 56
5 UNIVERSAL PRINCE Bede Murray 56
6 DALIAPOUR (IRE) Michael Stoute 55.5
7 SANDMASON (GB) Tony McEvoy 55.5
8 HELENE VITALITY (NZ) David Hayes 54.5
9 CARNEGIE EXPRESS (NZ) David Payne 54
10 HATHA ANNA (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 54
11 FIELDS OF OMAGH Tony McEvoy 53.5
12 FREEMASON John Hawkes 53.5
13 MAGUIRE (NZ) Jon Collins 53.5
14 PUGIN (IRE) John Oxx 53.5
15 RAIN GAUGE George Hanlon 53.5
16 BEEKEEPER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 53
17 DRESS CIRCLE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 53
18 KAAPSTAD WAY (NZ) Chris Wood 53
19 COUNTY TYRONE Max Lees 52.5
20 HAIL (NZ) Bruce Marsh 52.5
21 HENDERSON BAY (NZ) Neville McBurney 52.5
22 HEY PRONTO (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 52.5
23 MAGICAL MISS Bart Cummings 52.5
24 MR. PRUDENT George Hanlon 52
25 NATIVE JAZZ (NZ) Myles Plumb 52
26 PENTASTIC David Hall 52
27 PRIZED GEM (NZ) Murray Baker 52
28 REPUBLIC LASS Guy Walter 52
29 VICTORY SMILE (NZ) Donna Logan 52 1.5
30 ARMSTRONG (NZ) Jeffery Lynds 51.5
31 CYCLADES (NZ) Cydne Evans 51.5
32 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker 51.5
33 SOCIETY BEAU (NZ) Mark Walker 51.5
34 SPIRIT OF WESTBURY (NZ) Cliff Brown 51.5
35 GREY SONG Tommy Hughes 51
36 MAYTHEHORSEBEWITHU (NZ) Michael Moroney 51
37 MEDIA PUZZLE (USA) Dermot Weld 51
38 THONG CLASSIC Pat Carey 51
39 EAGLE RHYTHM (NZ) Leon Macdonald 50.5
40 THE A TRAIN (NZ) Cliff Brown 50.5
41 THE BIG ASK (NZ) Michael Moroney 50.5
42 BIG PAT Peter Tulloch 50
43 MON MEKKI Gerald Ryan 50
44 PANTANI (NZ) Robbie Laing 50
45 THE SECONDMORTGAGE (NZ) Michael Moroney 50
46 TULLY THUNDER Ross McDonald 50
47 WE'RE DANCING Gai Waterhouse 50
48 CAVALLO BRUNO (NZ) Keith Flynn 49.5
49 FIRETAINE (NZ) Stuart Webb 49.5
50 GILLESPIE (NZ) Jack Denham 49.5
51 INCLUSION (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 49.5
52 RUM George Hanlon 49.5
53 BELLONIC Tony Noonan 49
54 BONDI ICEBERG Tony Wildman 49
55 CRESCENT (NZ) Graeme Rogerson 49
56 FORLORNA (IRE) Sheila Laxon 49
57 GENTLE GENIUS Tony Wildman 49
58 GLOW BABY John Symons 49
59 GOLD LOTTEY Graeme Rogerson 49
60 HAWK EYE (NZ) Tony McEvoy 49
61 L'AVENIR Denis Walters 49
62 LE DESTINA Russell Cameron 49
63 LESTER THUNDERWING Ken Keys 49
64 LEXITAW John Symons 49
65 LIGHTUMA Tony McEvoy 49
66 LITTLE MISS QUICK (NZ) Leon Macdonald 49
67 MANANG (NZ) Lee Freedman 49
68 MISS MELISS (NZ) Bart Cummings 49
69 NATIONAL TREASURE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 49
70 NAUDERS Danny J Bougoure 49
71 OLD TAWNY (NZ) Ronald Hutchinson 49
72 PRESIDENT HUGHES (NZ) Mark Oulaghan 49
73 REQUIEM Tony McEvoy 49
74 SCRUMPTIOUS (NZ) Bevan Laming 49
75 SOLDADO Tony McEvoy 49
76 TYROLEAN Bart Cummings 49
77 ZAMARIN Tony Vasil 49
78 PLATINUM SCISSORS Gai Waterhouse 46

[loadandlockett]

god only knows!!!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: loadandlockett on 2002-10-30 11:45 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Thought the runs of Fields Of Omagh, Distinctly Secret, Beekeeper & Rain Guage in yesterday's CC, put them all into strong calculation for the Melbourne Cup.

[BettyBoop]

It seems that Republic Lass is going for a spell & will not line up in the MC.

[Paddy]

The punter who had just won the $200,000 jackpot on the Melbourne Cup was asked by reporters how he would spend the money.

“Oh, I’ve got that all figured out,” he said.

“First I’ll spend $50,000 on whisky and beer, $50,000 on horses, dogs and cards, and $50,000 on women and wild living!”

“Wow” said one reporter, “and what of the other $50,000?”

Shaking his head in embarrassment, the punter replied, “Oh I will probably just squander that”!

:lol:

[Tab Hunter]

Yeah, your right Paddy, we do take the whole thing a bit serious don't we? Hehehe...

[Paddy]

Suggest those of you that think Northerly can win the MC, should bite the bullet and get on now (fixed odds). Come race day, the weight of bets from the once-a-year punter and many of the Sandgroper’s will ensure poor value when they jump.

See two of my three early picks Vinnie Roe & Media Puzzle, are still in the line-up & primed & ready.

Love the 50/1 odds I got for Media Puzzle some time back :smile:

[Daynali]

Internationals always come over here with the hype that they are going to flog us, and that usually never eventuates, with the exception of Vintage Crop. All I can say is anyone who watched the Caulfield Cup run of Grey Song would be wise enough to have a tickle each way. While he lacks the genuine class of the raiders and our other top horses, he will run all day and has won over 2800 m. of Flemington. All I hope for is a good dousing of rain like last year, and I can see him as being one of our better hopes in the cup.

[Rogan Josh]

Courtesy AAP 28 Oct 02

NORTHERLY is among the third declarations for next week's Melbourne Cup but trainer Fred Kersley has warned punters he is extremely unlikely to start.

Kersley paid up as a precaution but said he would talk to all the owners before a final decision was made on whether the Cox Plate winner would take his place in the field. "I committed to paying up, but it should not be interpreted that he will run," Kersley said on Melbourne radio this morning. "We need to consider what is in the best interests of the horse.

"There's a fine line between being fit and being over-trained. "There is a flight back to Perth on Wednesday and I've pencilled him in on that. "As soon as the final decision is made I will let everyone know."

Kersley has already told Patrick Payne to accept another ride in the $4 million Cup (3200m) next Tuesday further indicating Northerly will not take part. Payne won his first Cox Plate aboard Northerly on Saturday and is in the running to ride international candidate Jardines Lookout.

Northerly's win in the Cox Plate was his eighth at Group One level and he has now earned more prizemoney than any other Australian-trained horse with $7,890,650.

[Rogan Josh]

Melbourne Cup - those still left in.

1 NORTHERLY Fred Kersley 60 2.0
2 VINNIE ROE (IRE) Dermot Weld 59
3 JARDINES LOOKOUT (IRE) Alan Jarvis 56
4 DALIAPOUR (IRE) Michael Stoute 55.5
5 SANDMASON (GB) Tony McEvoy 55.5
6 HELENE VITALITY (NZ) David Hayes 54.5
7 HATHA ANNA (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 54
8 FREEMASON John Hawkes 53.5
9 MAGUIRE (NZ) Jon Collins 53.5
10 PUGIN (IRE) Saeed Bin Suroor 53.5
11 RAIN GAUGE George Hanlon 53.5
12 BEEKEEPER (GB) Saeed Bin Suroor 53
13 KAAPSTAD WAY (NZ) Chris Wood 53
14 COUNTY TYRONE Max Lees 52.5
15 HAIL (NZ) Bruce Marsh 52.5
16 MEDIA PUZZLE (USA) Dermot Weld 52.5 1.5
17 MR. PRUDENT George Hanlon 52
18 NATIVE JAZZ (NZ) Myles Plumb 52
19 PENTASTIC David Hall 52
20 PRIZED GEM (NZ) Murray Baker 52
21 VICTORY SMILE (NZ) Donna Logan 52 1.5
22 ARMSTRONG (NZ) Jeffery Lynds 51.5
23 CYCLADES (NZ) Cydne Evans 51.5
24 DISTINCTLY SECRET (NZ) Mark Walker 51.5
25 SPIRIT OF WESTBURY (NZ) Cliff Brown 51.5
26 GREY SONG Tommy Hughes 51
27 THONG CLASSIC Pat Carey 51
28 THE A TRAIN (NZ) Cliff Brown 50.5
29 PANTANI (NZ) Robbie Laing 50
30 THE SECONDMORTGAGE (NZ) Michael Moroney 50
31 CAVALLO BRUNO (NZ) Keith Flynn 49.5
32 FIRETAINE (NZ) Stuart Webb 49.5
33 LE DESTINA Russell Cameron 49
34 LESTER THUNDERWING Ken Keys 49
35 LITTLE MISS QUICK (NZ) Leon Macdonald 49
36 MISS MELISS (NZ) Bart Cummings 49
37 NATIONAL TREASURE (NZ) Gai Waterhouse 49
38 OLD TAWNY (NZ) Ronald Hutchinson 49
39 REQUIEM Tony McEvoy 49
40 PLATINUM SCISSORS Gai Waterhouse 46

[Tab Hunter]

What happened to Gillespie? He was one of the only Ossie chances to beat these raiders... Ran 3.18 over 2 miles. Unbelievable. At least Lester Thunderwing is still paid up. He'll stay if he gets a start.

[Dude]

If Northerly starts, what are his chances ?

Dude.

I fell for the media hype some years back"re MC"imports.I had a sizeable wack at Oscar Schindler,and another year at Double Trigger!!!!Twice bitten,no more!! If you believe all the media ranting and raving,just box the imports in trifecta and first4,and get in the queue to collect!!My own thoughts lie with an old master in the form of one octagenerian,namely George Hanlon.I had a nibble at Mr. Prudent a month ago at 200/1.Proven two miler,geting on a bit,but aren't we all?I was happy with that bet after watching him run on stoutly into third place on saturday.Rain Guage is my main selection and I also backed it a while back,took 50/1 .It is also cherry ripe after it's run on Saturday.What a joke it was not given the race on protest....only in Melbourne??I intend to have a good go at the trifecta and try to skim off some of the dollars the once a year "mug money"provides.Break a leg guys,cheers from the Angel

[Rogan Josh]

Just noticed that betting on Northerly in Melbourne Cup - NSW TAB fixed odds, has been suspended.

[Rogan Josh]

Courtesy AAP

Dual Cox Plate winner Northerly will not run in next week's Melbourne Cup with trainer Fred Kersley opting to take him home to Perth on Wednesday.

Patrick Payne, who rode Northerly to his second Cox Plate win on Saturday, said he thought Northerly would have been a great Cup chance but that the trainer knew best.

Kersley believed it would be too much to ask Northerly to carry 60kg topweight in Cup after his hard spring campaign which netted three Group One wins.

"I would have liked to ride him in the Cup but he doesn't owe me anything," Payne said.

"Fred knows what is best for his horse."

Instead, Payne will be aboard English contender Jardines Lookout who he rode for the first time at Flemington this morning.

Jardines Lookout worked over 1600 metres on the Viscoride track and Payne said he was very pleased with the workout.

[croft]

I think the handicapper got it wrong when he added 2 kg to Northerly's Melbourne Cup weight after the Caulfield Cup for the following reasons.

1. Fred Kersley probably would have started the horse at 58 kg and maybe even 59 kg, but 60kg is a big psychological hurdle.

2. The horse was weighted at 58 kg originally, even though he was untried at anything over 2000 metres. I believe a horse should be weighted in the cup, not only on what they have achieved but their achievement at distances similar to the cup. I would say that the handicapper is probably not the most popular person with the race club at the moment because they have probably lost their major drawcard and possibly the only chance we have of keeping the cup in Australia.

[Equine Investor]

Take the raiders at odds of over 10/1 in a quinella with the field and you could clean up!

By the way, have we all written Bart off this year?

What are the chances of another Cup for J.B. ?

[Matilda]

Bart has a very very slight chance. Only if Miss Meliss got runner up or win the SAAB. I don't think so.

My favour is on Hail, Pugin and Daliapour.

Hail ran well in NZ when he got 3rd to Prized Gem and DS.

Pugin with the handicapped weight compare to the favourite Vinnie Roe.

Daliapour with one of the best jockey in the world M Kinane.

[rooburger]

don't you just love this race?
we anylise and rack our brain for all the possible chances and why.
i think i,ll get the old pin out:}
no really i have always admired the n.z horses and its a good record.
hail mmmmm!
its not a good race to make money out of for such a unkown high risk.
but come cup day i,ll be there with you all tickets in had pumping and yelling.
good luck everyone.

"little fish are sweet" an old english saying.

[INTUITIVE]

My top pick will be the most qualified horse in the weights under 59kg. At this stage that is Jardines Lookout with Patrick Payne on board...wouldn't it be a fairytale. Wins Cox Plate and MC on pick up rides other than originally intended.
Got to have a go at the exotics with the amounts in the pools. I take a standout for theTRIF and F4.

[INTUITIVE]

My top pick will be the most qualified horse in the weights under 59kg. At this stage that is Jardines Lookout with Patrick Payne on board...wouldn't it be a fairytale. Wins Cox Plate and MC on pick up rides other than originally intended.
Got to have a go at the exotics with the amounts in the pools. I take a standout for theTRIF and F4.

What is going on here?Vinnie Roe may be an exceptional horse,but he is an exceptional horse overseas,he is yet to prove himself here!!The same goes for the other imports!!They will all be running without my money.I will include some in my trifectas,but that's it for me.It won't make any difference which import you back,because all the media hype will ensure that not one of them will be value anyway!I agree with Equine Investor,so many things can and do change in the week leading up to the race.I always go with Bart Cummings line of thought,the winner of the Melbourne Cup will go around the Saturday before so come Tuesday it is rockhard fit.So that let's Vinnie Roe out!I note that Rain Gauge has had an almost identical prep this time as last year when he ran sixth,not beaten all that far.He is now a 5year old,and they have an excellent record in this race.The best contenders from the Caulfield Cup,(my opinion only,given the first 3 aren't running)Distinctly Secret,(great 4th)Rain Gauge(made up lots of ground)and the import,Beekeeper,also made up good ground.Distinctly could well be the forgotten horse here,and I believe he will be way overs,because of the weight of money for the imports.Cheers

[Tab Hunter]

Goldophin must agree with Bart's theory running Hatha Anna in the MacKinnon. Don't forget this horse. He won at Flemington this time last year (Queen Elizabeth Stakes G2)after being balloted out of the Cup. He is the least talked about of the Goldophins, and only hope they put an experienced Ossie rider on him, which I'm sure they will. McEvoy would be good.

[Cosmo]

For value I have taken juicy odds of Grey Song e/w at 50-1.

Good luck to all

Cheers
Cosmo

[BettyBoop]

Weather prediction suggests we might need to look at those with good form on dead or worse track.

Those in Melbourne, how does it look?

[Paddy]

Courtesy aapracingandsports

Thursday, 31 October 2002:


Melbourne Cup favourite Vinnie Roe has hit a major hurdle in his preparation for Tuesday's race forcing trainer Dermot Weld to revise plans for the Irish champion.

Weld had planned to ship Vinnie Roe to Flemington tomorrow for a vital gallop.

But within hours of arriving in Melbourne on Thursday, Weld cancelled the trip.

Instead he will keep Vinnie Roe at his Sandown base and will spend the weekend in a last-ditch attempt to get him right for the Cup.

The trainer, who had not been expected in Melbourne until Sunday, flew in from Dublin this morning and immediately went to the Sandown quarantine stables where the horse has spent the past four weeks.

"I have to say that I'm concerned about him," Weld said after inspecting Vinnie Roe.

"He didn't travel well and he hasn't really picked up as I would have liked him to.

"He didn't look himself, he was dull in the coat and just not right."

The setback has left Weld, who is recognised as one of the world's most astute trainers, with only four days to turn things around.

He said he had planned to ship Vinnie Roe, a horse he described as the best he has trained since his 1993 Melbourne Cup winner Vintage Crop, to Flemington tomorrow for a gallop he had hoped would shed a lot of light on his Cup prospects.

But Vinnie Roe will now have have a more conservative workout at Sandown.

The warning signs have been up for Vinnie Roe almost from the day he arrived and Weld has been on record saying he wasn't happy with the horse's progress.

But the concerns seemed to ease after the horse completed what appeared to an impressive gallop at Flemington on Tuesday.

Vinnie Roe was timed to break 36 seconds for the final 600m of the 1600m workout and appeared to pull up well.

After a quiet day, he emerged at Sandown with race jockey Pat Smullen in the saddle for a piece of work that only added to the air of mystery surrounding the horse.

Rather than test Vinnie Roe in a serious gallop, Smullen hardly had him out of a canter and the pair left the track after completing one casual lap.

By contrast, Media Puzzle, a brilliant winner of last week's Geelong Cup, pushed on for a second circuit, finishing his work off in dashing style.

"I couldn't be happier with Media Puzzle, it's just a case of one horse travelling well and one who hasn't," Weld said.

"But it would be fair to say we've had to nurse Vinnie along a bit."

While Weld's concerns are bound to cause bookmakers to reconsider their Cup markets, they are also likely to treat the situation with a certain amount of caution.

Before Vintage Crop's momentous win nine years ago, Weld had taken a similar conservative line saying the horse had travelled badly and had failed to regain weight lost on the trip.

Vintage Crop duly galloped to one of the more impressive Cup wins of recent times.

Among the other international Cup hopes, Beekeeper was the star of track session.

The Godolphin runner has improved dramatically in condition since running sixth in the Caulfield Cup and trainer Saeed bin Suroor has been singing the horse's praises since arriving here on Tuesday.

[Rogan Josh]

Prices at: 19:08:08, 2 Nov 2002

No. Selection Win Place
014 Media Puzzle $5.00 $2.00
001 Vinnie Roe $6.50 $2.35
020 Distinctly Secret $7.50 $2.60
009 Pugin $8.00 $2.75
011 Beekeeper $10.00 $3.25
010 Rain Gauge $12.00 $3.75
023 Miss Meliss $17.00 $5.00
016 Pentastic $19.00 $5.50
002 Jardine's Lookout $21.00 $6.00
024 Requiem $21.00 $6.00
005 Helene Vitality $34.00 $9.25
006 Hatha Anna $34.00 $9.25
003 Daliapour $41.00 $11.00
017 Prized Gem $41.00 $11.00
019 Cyclades $41.00 $11.00
012 County Tyrone $51.00 $13.50
013 Hail $51.00 $13.50
015 Mr. Prudent $51.00 $13.50
018 Victory Smile $51.00 $13.50
021 Grey Song $51.00 $13.50
022 Thong Classic $51.00 $13.50
004 Sandmason $61.00 $16.00
007 Freemason $81.00 $21.00
008 Maguire $81.00 $21.00

[Rogan Josh]

Final Field

1 Vinnie Roe(IRE) 7 Dermot Weld Patrick Smullen 59
2 Jardines Lookout(IRE) 19 Alan Jarvis Patrick Payne 56
3 Daliapour(IRE) 1 Michael Stoute Michael Kinane 55.5
4 Sandmason(GB) 13 Tony McEvoy Steven Arnold 55.5
5 Helene Vitality(NZ) 17 David Hayes Gerald Mosse 54.5
6 Hatha Anna(IRE) 22 Saeed Bin Suroor Richard Hills 54
7 Freemason 11 John Hawkes Darren Gauci 53.5
8 Maguire(NZ) 8 Jon Collins Danny Nikolic 53.5
9 Pugin(IRE) 15 Saeed Bin Suroor Frankie Dettori 53.5
10 Rain Gauge 14 George Hanlon Greg Childs 53.5
11 Beekeeper(GB) 20 Saeed Bin Suroor Kerrin McEvoy 53
12 County Tyrone 9 Max Lees Jim Cassidy 52.5
13 Hail(NZ) 16 Bruce Marsh Noel Harris 52.5
14 Media Puzzle(USA) 3 Dermot Weld Damien Oliver 52.5
15 Mr. Prudent 4 George Hanlon Corey Brown 52
16 Pentastic 6 David Hall Glen Boss 52
17 Prized Gem(NZ) 24 Murray Baker Michael Rodd 52
18 Victory Smile(NZ) 2 Donna Logan Danny Beasley 52
19 Cyclades(NZ) 5 Cydne Evans Scott Seamer 51.5
20 Distinctly Secret(NZ) 18 Mark Walker Steven King 51.5
21 Grey Song 23 Tommy Hughes Chris Munce 51
22 Thong Classic 21 Pat Carey Brett Prebble 51
23 Miss Meliss(NZ) 10 Bart Cummings Craig Newitt 49
24 Requiem 12 Tony McEvoy Craig Williams 49

[Equine Investor]

My picks -

Media Puzzle
Pugin
Distinctly Secret

(I'd only include Vinnie Roe if we get significant rain I.E. - track slow or worse).

[Paddy]

Still like the chances of Vinnie Roe & Media Puzzle (both picked back in mid September) although have some doubts about VR's preparation and feel MP may be found wanting in last little bit.

Will now also include Cyclades, a 2 mile winner in NZ who ran a bottler of a race in yesterday's Saab Quality, running on well & drops 4kg and has services of Scott Seamer.

If I think Cyclades has a chance would also have to include Maguire at big odds, narrowly beat Cyclades in the Auckland Cup & meets Cyclades 2kg better. Interestingly, Scott Seamer rode Maguire in that race.

Maguire scratched - now include Prized Gem in the first 4.

:grin: There was a power failure in a Dublin department store. Thousands of shoppers were stranded on the escalators for hours.

:lol:

"Your glass is empty Paddy, will you be having another?"

"And why would I be wanting two empty glasses?" replied Paddy.

:lol:

PADDY: "Hey Shaun, what's Mick's surname?"
Shaun: "Mick who?"

:lol:

PADDY: "If you can guess how many chooks I have in this bag you can have both of them."
"Three?" suggested Shaun.

:lol:

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May the luck of the Irish be with you!



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Paddy on 2002-11-05 09:40 ]</font>

With the final field, weights and barriers sorted out it's time for serious form study. I know some of our forum members can accurately highlight the most likely winners months ahead of the race, and have the courage to back them at higher early prices.

Much has been said about the top 6 horses in the market. As most winners come from that group it's understandable.

Another factor that crops up very regularly is a last winner. Similar to EI's 7day plan. In the cup it goes back to Caulfield Cup day (upto 17 days). Based on this factor we have Media Puzzle, Thong Classic & Requiem. Vinnie Roe's win was too long ago to count. Put the betting market and last start win together we get Media Puzzle.

If Greg Childs was riding Requiem I would of put him down as a serious pick on a good track only. Thong Classic keeps Brett Preble so I place this horse a my serious pick on any track. Currently at 50/1 reasonable value especialy for e/w.

Thats my thoughts and I have put my money on Thong Classic even though Media Puzzle has everything going for him to win. Form, fitness and D. Oliver.

I would just like to set the record straight here.I admit and take full responsibility for a couple of "agressive"postings that I made a few weeks ago.I humbly apoligised to Tabhunter,and I most humbly apologise right here and now to Freewaytogo,and to Quapi and all the other moderators.I am extremely passionate about the sport of kings,have been for 35 years.I do not wish to question anyones integrity.As a Vietnam veteran I do not feel that I have anything to prove to anyone,and I do not want my integrity questioned either.I have been diagnosed with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder,so I sometimes lose the plot!I would not say anything purposely to offend anyone,or anything that I would not be prepared to say face to face.I am openly admitting that it is me who is under scrutiny here,and if you guys no longer want or desire my presence in this forum I understand.I just wish that you guys could understand where I am coming from.Cheers,and goodbye,Angel416

[BettyBoop]

My early tip - Mr Prudent, has made the final field. Has a great EW hope at good odds. Also add Pugin, Beekeeper & Distinctly Secret.

Pugin meets Vinnie Roe 5.5 kg better for last start 2nd in St Leger (2800m) at Curragh. Beekeeper - great run in the CC and reports are, has improved considerably since.

Distinctly Secret - Lightweight racing in fine form. Unlucky in CC.

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<font color="#FF00FF">BOOP - OOP - A - DOOP !</font></p>



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: BettyBoop on 2002-11-05 09:33 ]</font>

Tabhunter:one last post because I promised you my assessment today(Monday).As EI said in anoyher post a while back,how things change in the last few days before the Cup!!All the hype has gone from Vinnie Roe to Media Puzzle!My opinion is that Dermot Weld,cunning Irishman that he is,is laughing.I think his money has been on Vinnie all along.This horse is used to carrying big weights,in fact the 59kgs is probably the lightest weight he has carried for quite some time!They have both drawn well,but in my opinion Vinnie Roe will be the stronger horse over the 3200 metres.Also with the hype now centralised on Media Puzzle and Damien Oliver,unless you got on some weeks back there is no value left there.Pugin is a noted front runner,but is Frankie Dettori going to push forward from gate 15,and who will lead if he doesn't?I think that Freemason,County Tyrone,Hail,Mr Prudent,Prized Gem,Victory Smile,Grey Song,Thong Classic,Miss Melliss and Requiem are all outclassed.I had a nibble at Distinctly Secret at 25/1 before the Caulfield Cup,so I am pretty happy with that bet now!I also backed Rain Gauge at 40/1 months ago,again quite pleased with myself.My final thuoghts are 1)Distinctly Secret 2)Vinnie Roe 3)Rain Gauge 4)Pugin 5)Media Puzzle 6)Pentastic 7)Cyclades :cool:Beekeeper.Having said all that,I also intend to have a small bet on a roughie,County Tyrone.This horse won the Qld derby last winter,you had to see the run to believe it,and guess who ran 4th in the same race?You got it,Distinctly Secret!It has the pumper on board,and Max Lees is a good trainer,and it will be at any old odds.Just my own thoughts,good luck to all posters,go for it!!

[BettyBoop]

Track rated good, as of this morning.

[Cosmo]

Betty I agree with you - Mr Prudent is a good e/w chance, won Sydney cup last year and ran 2nd a nose this year (3200m), drops weight in this and great value. My final first four is -

Grey Song
Beekeeper
Pugin
Distinctly Secret

Roughie - Mr Prudent.

Also like Another Warrior (race 8 melb)
and Bris. - race 5 - Oodles N Boodles
race 3 - Waitawhero Gold

Good punting all, and enjoy the day
Cheers
Cosmo

[Rogan Josh]

Of my early fancies only Hatha Anna, Maguire, & Cyclades are in the starting lineup.

Odds just checked with NSWTAB are $55/$15, $54/$14 & $40/$10. Looks like I'm either going to clean up or get cleaned up!

Also like Requiem - in form, improving, nothing on his back & will race forward and should miss any potential trouble.

[Tab Hunter]

Very nice assessment angel416, I'm certain you will do well. And the very best of luck to you all. This is a great Cup, lot's of good chances, and a heap of value. My selections are posted on the Formguide topic so I won't post again here. Wishing you all the best, and a safe and thrilling race...:wink:

[BigR]

My two cents worth;

1. Pugin - huge weight drop and good form in class races overseas
2. Thong Classic - needs to handle class rise, but last start winner, good form and great weight
3. Distinctly secret - can he possibly have the same 'bad luck' again ? Looks like it's been set for this race alone.

For the trifecta - I'll add Hatha Anna and Media Puzzle.

[Sandgroper]

(2) Jardines Lookout - capable of running under 3:20:00 for the 3200m. That will do me in this field.

(14) Media Puzzle - would be great if Damien could win this for Jason.

(19) Cyclades - best hope from NZ.

(23) Miss Meliss - Cummings Magic ?

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-11-05 00:47 ]</font>

[Paddy]

Maguire (8) only scratching.

[Rogan Josh]

Summary of tips-to-date

With Maguire scratched, I'm now going to add Victory Smile to my selections. Good luck everyone!

Media Puzzle – 5
Distinctly Secret – 5
Cyclades – 4
Pugin – 4
Rain Guage – 4
Vinnie Roe – 3
Hatha Anna – 3
Requiem – 2
Jardines Lookout – 2
Grey Song –2
Mr Prudent –2
Thong Classic – 2
Hail – 2
Beekeeper – 1
Prized Gem – 1
Daliapour – 1
Miss Meliss – 1
Victory Smile – 1

[Rogan Josh]

As a team, not a bad effort! :wink:

[darkydog2002]

paddy.loved the yarn .good one.