Some OZ lay selections

[AngryPixie]

Here are a few lay selections turned up by a new lay method I have in the workshop. These are the raw unfiltered selections, so some may be uncomfortably long and any subsequent scratching may alter things too. The unfiltered selections turned up 29 successes from 30 selections on Saturday :eek:

Let's see if they can survive Monday racing and the forum hoodoo. I'll only watching today.

ORAN04-12 Katdanch

SALE04-04 Just An Illusion
SALE05-03 Spycam
SALE06-05 No More Rules

TAMW01-05 Sir Penne
TAMW04-04 Horse 'N' Hounds
TAMW07-03 Tip Of The Iceberg

[wesmip1]

Angry Pixie,

Providing you get good prices I agree with your selections.

The only one I would not lay though is

TAMW04-04 Horse 'N' Hounds

Good Luck.

[AngryPixie]

the only one I would not lay though is

TAMW04-04 Horse 'N' Hounds

Any reason?

Some of these will be pretty long now I look at the markets. Don't do anything your not comfortable with ;)

[wesmip1]

Just looking at the class of horses in the race. This horse has a good chance at this race.

He won two starts back and could come up with a similar result against this competition.

Good Luck.

[AngryPixie]

Ok then. We'll soon find out I guess :)

I don't do any form these days so info like that doesn't get looked at.

[AngryPixie]

Well done Wes. You visualised it and it happened :)

Another one bites the dust. Oh dear I've been hoodooed.

[wesmip1]

It was just lucky .... but definitely not one I would have layed.

[AngryPixie]

Turned into a nice little win system. I love Monday racing. Nothing works the same :)

[AngryPixie]

Wow how fantastic was that start :eek:

These selections were from something I noticed when finishing my after race paperwork on Saturday. Haven't had any thoughts as to a suitable set of filters, but I'll press on for a few days to see what presents itself. The prices are from BAT.

ORAN04-12 Katdanch ... WON -8.60
SALE04-04 Just An Illusion ... LOST +1.00
SALE05-03 Spycam ... LOST +1.00
SALE06-05 No More Rules ... LOST +1.00
TAMW01-05 Sir Penne ... LOST +1.00
TAMW04-04 Horse 'N' Hounds ... WON -8.80
TAMW07-03 Tip Of The Iceberg LOST +1.00

[AngryPixie]

Your safe today. No time to do any selections this morning. ;)

[Merriguy]

Should be grateful for small mercies :)

[AngryPixie]

Bit snowed under this week so will put this on the back burner till I get a chance to think it through a bit more.

[AngryPixie]

NCLE01-08 Queen Nadima
E_FM01-08 Gonzalo

More to follow.

[AngryPixie]

E_FM02-07 Leica Launch

MORP01-02 Dandy Jester
MORP01-03 Foolish Lad
MORP02-03 Jeune's Reign
MORP04-04 Isanami
MORP04-07 Maloose
MORP07-03 Reshuffles

HAWK03-01 Hadaaf
HAWK03-06 Count Milano
HAWK04-10 Hesiod

GCST05-04 The Chanster
GCST08-05 Tag

SANL05-06 No Trouble
SANL06-10 Satin Robes
SANL07-01 Sarrera
SANL08-07 Rulan Ruby

[AngryPixie]

Remember to be sensible about the prices you take with these. These are raw selections based on a single factor so you'd be wise to employ some filters of your own.

CRAN08-05 Archachon

[AngryPixie]

Morphetville race 2 should be

MORP02-02 Exalted Time

NOT

MORP02-03 Jeune's Reign

Sorry

[AngryPixie]

E_FM06-01 Magically
E_FM06-02 Love And Money
E_FM06-09 No Mistake

[AngryPixie]

TWBA03-06 Creswina
TWBA03-07 Ultra Modern
TWBA04-06 Rockababe
TWBA04-07 Catch The Cougar
TWBA05-08 Regal Charmer

CRAN08-07 Mr Wang

ASCT05-01 Is Amazing
ASCT08-03 Boy Canny Go

That's it. I promise :)

[AngryPixie]

That went pretty well really. :)

Sorry to have posted the selections in such a disjointed fashion, but I was running badly behind today. Will have another go on Anzac Day and will get them all up before the first ... I hope.

As mentioned earlier in this thread it was my intention that you'd apply your own filters to these selections. The most obvious one would be price, and as you can see from the price figures after the selections name, quite a few of these were uncomfortably long. A maximum lay price of 11.00 seems to be the cutoff for many lay methods I've seen and interestingly that's not too different from the 11.25 median of the prices below. I'll use 11.00 as the maximum when posting results. I won't apply any other filters, but if you have any you like please feel free. Prices are from B.A.T.

Laying all these selections would have lost you 7.4 units (-24.67% ROI), but by laying all selections starting at or below 11.00 you'd have won 4.60 units (+30.67% ROI) :)

ASCT05-01 Is Amazing 4.00 ... WON -3.00
ASCT08-03 Boy Canny Go 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
CRAN08-05 Archachon 14.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
CRAN08-07 Mr Wang 12.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
E_FM01-08 Gonzalo 19.50 ... LOST TOO LONG
E_FM02-07 Leica Launch 15.50 ... LOST TOO LONG
E_FM06-01 Magically 6.40 ... WON -5.40
E_FM06-02 Love And Money 7.40 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM06-09 No Mistake 46.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
GCST05-04 The Chanster 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
GCST08-05 Tag 15.50 ... LOST TOO LONG
HAWK03-01 Hadaaf 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
HAWK03-06 Count Milano 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
HAWK04-10 Hesiod 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORP01-02 Dandy Jester 27.00 ... WON TOO LONG
MORP01-03 Foolish Lad 15.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
MORP02-02 Exalted Time 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
MORP04-04 Isanami 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORP04-07 Maloose 4.90 ... LOST +1.00
MORP07-03 Reshuffles 21.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
NCLE01-08 Queen Nadima 6.00 ... LOST +1.00
SANL05-06 No Trouble 19.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
SANL06-10 Satin Robes 11.50 ... LOST TOO LONG
SANL07-01 Sarrera 4.90 ... LOST +1.00
SANL08-07 Rulan Ruby 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA03-06 Creswina 12.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
TWBA03-07 Ultra Modern 44.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
TWBA04-06 Rockababe 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA04-07 Catch The Cougar 16.00 ... LOST TOO LONG
TWBA05-08 Regal Charmer 85.00 ... LOST TOO LONG

[AngryPixie]

We'll just stick with meetings on Saturday and the occasional public holiday.

It's early days so these figures will vary alot. With a bit more data we should be able to fiddle around and find the sweet spot.

===
RESULTS: April 21st

All
===
Number of Selections: 30
Observed Successes: 27
Expected Successes: 26.89
Advantage: 0.41%
Success due to luck: 94.75%
Units Profit: -7.4 :(
ROI: -24.67% :(

11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 15
Observed Successes: 13
Expected Successes: 12.72
Advantage: 2.20%
Success due to luck: 84.02%
Units Profit: 4.60 :)
ROI: +30.67% :)

[AngryPixie]

Ok let's see what happens today. Many of these lay selections will be long in the market so please don't do anything that makes you feel uncomfortable or embarrassed. ;)

These are single factor selections and their place in the market has not been considered. We're working up the data to see what filters drop out :)

BATH04-06 Royal Attitude
BATH04-07 Owatonna
BATH05-02 Dame Seven
BATH05-06 Pickett's Charge
BATH06-05 Effdeecabernet
CHEL04-01 Londo
CHEL06-07 Croquet
CHEL08-02 Marzotto
CHEL08-16 Woodland Jack
GCST04-05 Glowing Rose
GCST07-09 Sky Mine
GCST07-11 Inside Knowledge
GCST08-11 Sweetmandy
MOE_04-03 Pride N Talaq
MOE_06-07 Don't Be A Devil
MOE_06-08 Elliptical
MOE_07-01 Cobalta
MOE_08-07 Indicates
M_V_02-08 Joontoo Gemini
M_V_04-04 Vengo
M_V_07-03 Miss La Tar
RAND01-06 Command Ruler
RAND04-08 Cagey Savings
RAND05-08 Big Head
RAND07-03 Sussman

Ascot to follow.

[AngryPixie]

ASCT07-16 Webb Ellis

[AngryPixie]

Both our price divisions are in profit after yesterdays efforts. Let's go again on Saturday to see how far we can push this.

I won't "grey out" any selections from now as I've summarised the different price divisions below. As usual, prices supplied by the B.A.T.

ASCT07-16 Webb Ellis 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
BATH04-06 Royal Attitude 5.50 ... LOST +1.00
BATH04-07 Owatonna 6.40 ... LOST +1.00
BATH05-02 Dame Seven 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
BATH05-06 Pickett's Charge 13.00 ... LOST +1.00
BATH06-05 Effdeecabernet 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL04-01 Londo 4.30 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL06-07 Croquet 6.80 ... WON -5.80
CHEL08-02 Marzotto 14.50 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL08-16 Woodland Jack 19.50 ... LOST +1.00
GCST04-05 Glowing Rose 12.50 ... LOST +1.00
GCST07-09 Sky Mine 11.50 ... WON -10.50
GCST07-11 Inside Knowledge 17.00 ... LOST +1.00
GCST08-11 Sweetmandy 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
MOE_04-03 Pride N Talaq 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
MOE_06-07 Don't Be A Devil 46.00 ... LOST +1.00
MOE_06-08 Elliptical 16.50 ... LOST +1.00
MOE_07-01 Cobalta 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
MOE_08-07 Indicates 34.00 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_02-08 Joontoo Gemini 25.00 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_04-04 Vengo 14.00 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_07-03 Miss La Tar 19.00 ... LOST +1.00
RAND01-06 Command Ruler 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
RAND04-08 Cagey Savings 70.00 ... LOST +1.00
RAND05-08 Big Head 44.00 ... LOST +1.00
RAND07-03 Sussman 7.20 ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: April 21st - April 25th

All
===
Number of Selections: 56.00
Observed Successes: 51.00
Observed Strike Rate: 91.07%
Expected Successes: 50.47
Expected Strike Rate: 90.12%
Advantage: 1.05%
Success due to luck: 80.31%
Units Profit: +0.30 :)
ROI: +0.05% :)

11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 27.00
Observed Successes: 24.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.89%
Expected Successes: 23.03
Expected Strike Rate: 85.30%
Advantage: 4.20%
Success due to luck: 55.32%
Units Profit: +9.80 :)
ROI: +36.29% :)

[AngryPixie]

Quite a few races with multiple selections today. Could be some good Dutch Lay opportunities. Normal warnings about price apply. Good luck. :)

CAUL03-01 Speedy Rossa
CAUL05-02 Life's A Bounty
CAUL06-03 Rockford Bay
CAUL08-08 Pinezero
E_FM02-05 Stirling
E_FM02-10 Moonlight Shadow
E_FM04-07 Vietnam
E_FM05-04 Mesmerising
E_FM05-07 Point Made
E_FM07-06 Primus
E_FM08-01 Omnitrader
E_FM08-03 High Academy
E_FM08-08 Picablu
E_FM08-12 Noble Gaze
GCST02-04 Casa Cardoso
GCST02-10 Monagetti
GCST05-04 Golden Whistler
GCST05-06 Nepro
GCST05-10 In Order
GCST06-07 Muscle Up
GCST08-04 Aquaracer
GCST08-05 Bushie
GCST08-09 Daintree Crossing
MORP03-09 Night Gazer
MORP04-09 Lessie
RHIL03-06 Rubinda
RHIL03-07 Oakland Lad
RHIL07-09 Newport
RHIL08-02 Biscayne Bay

ASCT and TWBA to follow

[michaelg]

Angry Pixie, you have shown Caulfield R8 no.8 as Pinzero but it is no.2.

As a matter of interest, my Lay method has selected Caulfield R8 no.8 - Mistake Creek.

[AngryPixie]

Angry Pixie, you have shown Caulfield R8 no.8 as Pinzero but it is no.2.


Thanks Michael you're right

CAUL08-08 Pinezero

should be

CAUL08-02 Pinezero

[AngryPixie]

ASCT04-03 Cat In A Hat
ASCT07-07 Zambane
ASCT08-05 Dee Picked
ASCT08-10 Lizardis
TWBA03-08 Hazza Heart
TWBA04-07 Sheoaks
TWBA07-04 O'Callahern

[AngryPixie]

Tough day on the lay! Toowoomba meeting being abandoned made it interesting but the 11.00 and less division ended on profit. We've come back to the pack a little though.

Watch the prices you're accepting here people. The daily median price has been pushed from 11.25 to 12.50! Remember it's more likely that the success so far of the 11.00 and less division has been due to luck. Little money only ok.

ASCT04-03 Cat In A Hat 8.20 LOST +1.00
ASCT07-07 Zambane 25.00 ... LOST +1.00
ASCT08-05 Dee Picked 5.60 ... LOST +1.00
ASCT08-10 Lizardis 7.80 ... LOST +1.00
CAUL03-01 Speedy Rossa 8.4 ... LOST +1.00
CAUL05-02 Life's A Bounty 15 ... LOST +1.00
CAUL06-03 Rockford Bay 20 ... LOST +1.00
CAUL08-02 Pinezero 11 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM02-05 Stirling 14.5 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM02-10 Moonlight Shadow 8.6 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM04-07 Vietnam 9.8 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM05-04 Mesmerising 10 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM05-07 Point Made 26 ... WON -25.00
E_FM07-06 Primus 10.5 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM08-01 Omnitrader 7 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM08-03 High Academy 38 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM08-08 Picablu 9.6 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM08-12 Noble Gaze 14 ... WON -13.00
GCST02-04 Casa Cardoso 17 ... LOST +1.00
GCST02-10 Monagetti 13 ... LOST +1.00
GCST05-04 Golden Whistler 15 ... LOST +1.00
GCST05-06 Nepro 19.5 ... LOST +1.00
GCST05-10 In Order 12.5 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-07 Muscle Up 10.5 ... LOST +1.00
GCST08-04 Aquaracer 6.2 ... WON -5.20
GCST08-05 Bushie 7.2 ... LOST +1.00
GCST08-09 Daintree Crossing 12.5 ... LOST +1.00
MORP03-09 Night Gazer 24 ... LOST +1.00
MORP04-09 Lessie 29 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL03-06 Rubinda 15 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL03-07 Oakland Lad 7.6 ... WON -6.60
RHIL07-09 Newport 30 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL08-02 Biscayne Bay 15 ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: April 21st - April 28th

All
===
Number of Selections: 89.00
Observed Successes: 80.00
Observed Strike Rate: 89.88%
Expected Successes: 80.62
Expected Strike Rate: 90.59%
Advantage: -0.77%
Success due to luck: 82.65%
Units Profit: -20.50 :(
ROI: -23.03% :(

11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 42.00
Observed Successes: 37.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.09%
Expected Successes: 36.21
Expected Strike Rate: 86.20%
Advantage: 2.19%
Success due to luck: 70.50%
Units Profit: +11.00 :)
ROI: +26.19% :)


P.S. Wonder if we've turned up a longshot win method with the selections starting at more than 11.00.

[AngryPixie]

A bit quieter today. Good luck.

BRAT05-05 Decamp
BRAT07-02 Saliente
BRAT07-11 Golden Engagement
GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle
GAWL08-13 Warwick's Brother
GCST02-01 Vitesse Dane
GCST06-03 King Rex
GCST07-12 Gaze
IPSW06-05 Darry
IPSW07-05 Snow Destiny
IPSW08-15 Lightning Brown
K_GR06-06 Gunna Happen
K_GR07-01 Geiger Spirit
K_GR07-02 Double Dip
K_GR08-02 Jet Hawk
M_V_06-04 Ghost Party
M_V_08-07 Carat Cake
RHIL03-03 Scissons
RHIL05-06 Lady Gulch
RHIL07-05 Rena's Lady
RHIL08-12 Junebug

BLMT an TWBA to follow

[Magivor]

Moonee Valley

R1-Hubcat
R2-Industrious
R3-Cot Case
R4-Purple Chocolate
R5-New Kid In Town
R6-Formal Attire
R7-Flash Coupe
R8-Rulan Ruby

Gold Coast
R1-Decerto
R2-Vitesse Dane & Vietnam
R3-Woody N Buzz
R4-N/A
R5-N/A
R6-Hard To Catch
R7-Desert War
R8-Coolroom Candidate


i have tried to choose horses that are fave or around the mark, so obviously some will win, but hopefully the losers will outweigh the winners.

[AngryPixie]

Magivor

You may like to start your own thread with your lay selections. Good luck with them.

[AngryPixie]

BLMT03-11 Trustadane
BLMT06-06 Star Laser
BLMT07-10 Doyoudare
BLMT08-06 Yeah Yeah
BLMT08-09 Boy Canny Go
TWBA05-08 Ruby's Party

[AngryPixie]

I think we've turned up a very interesting longshot win method. More to follow when I post the results. :D

[AngryPixie]

Well I think things are looking interesting here. The "11.00 or less" lay selections continue to turn a profit, and while 11.00 may not be quite the right cut-off spot we'll continue with these and see what happens. Laying all the selections (nobody would do this anyway) is a clear loser and after today I won't summarise this group.

But... look at the selections above 11.00. We're getting some nice winners in this price range. This looks pretty good so I've included a summary of where we'd be if we had backed all the selections in this range, and I'll continue doing this in future weeks. I'll move to a new thread for next Saturday as we're not dealing just with lay's anymore. Prices from the B.A.T.

BLMT03-11 Trustadane 30.00 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT06-06 Star Laser 16.00 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT07-10 Doyoudare 17.00 ... WON -17.00
BLMT08-06 Yeah Yeah 18.50 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT08-09 Boy Canny Go 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
BRAT05-05 Decamp 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
BRAT07-02 Saliente 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
BRAT07-11 Golden Engagement 8.80 ... LOST +1.00
GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle 27.00 ... WON -27.00
GAWL08-13 Warwick's Brother 38.00 ... LOST +1.00
GCST02-01 Vitesse Dane 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-03 King Rex 22.00 ... LOST +1.00
GCST07-12 Gaze 16.00 ... LOST +1.00
IPSW06-05 Darry 14.00 ... LOST +1.00
IPSW07-05 Snow Destiny 15.00 ... WON -14.00
IPSW08-15 Lightning Brown 48.00 ... LOST +1.00
K_GR06-06 Gunna Happen 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
K_GR07-01 Geiger Spirit 12.50 ... LOST +1.00
K_GR07-02 Double Dip 8.60 ... WON -7.60
K_GR08-02 Jet Hawk 5.80 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_06-04 Ghost Party 80.00 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_08-07 Carat Cake 9.60 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL03-03 Scissons 12.50 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL05-06 Lady Gulch 5.10 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL07-05 Rena's Lady 38.00 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL08-12 Junebug 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA05-08 Ruby's Party 11.50 ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: April 21st - May 5th

Lay All
===
Number of Selections: 116.00
Observed Successes: 103.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.79%
Expected Successes: 105.21
Expected Strike Rate: 90.70%
Advantage: -2.10%
Success due to luck: 51.46%
Units Profit: -61.10 :(
ROI: -52.67%

Lay 11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 53.00
Observed Successes: 47.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.68%
Expected Successes: 45.62
Expected Strike Rate: 86.08%
Advantage: 3.02%
Success due to luck: 55.00%
Units Profit: +13.40 :)
ROI: +25.28%

Back 11.50 or greater
===
Number of Selections: 63.00
Observed Successes: 7.00
Observed Strike Rate: 11.11%
Expected Successes: 3.41
Expected Strike Rate: 5.41%
Advantage: 105.47% :eek:
Success due to luck: 14.97%
Units Profit: +74.50 :eek:
ROI: +118.25%

[AngryPixie]

BLMT07-10 Doyoudare 17.00 ... WON -17.00
GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle 27.00 ... WON -27.00

should be

BLMT07-10 Doyoudare 17.00 ... WON -16.00
GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle 27.00 ... WON -26.00

All other figures are correct.

[AngryPixie]

Anybody there? :o

[AngryPixie]

HELLO ... Hello ... hello ......

Is anybody there ... there ... there ..... ?

Do you want me to continue on with this selection method or am I just amusing myself? :o

[TWOBETS]

Where's that flippin' echo coming from?

Thanks for your persistence AP, I'm certainly an interested viewer but don't expect you to keep the candle burning just for me.

Maybe some viewers are a little troubled by some of the wins, but you clearly stated the provisos for this new method...so who knows?

Annie Who AP, thanks for your efforts thus far.

[AngryPixie]

Where's that flippin' echo coming from?
From inside my wallet ;)


Maybe some viewers are a little troubled by some of the wins, but you clearly stated the provisos for this new method...so who knows?

Yep from this weekend onwards i'm doing a complete 180 turn on the selections above 11.00. On the limited data we've collected they look good as longshot win selections. The 11.00 and below are still (and should continue to be) good for the lay. I know some people don't like laying up towards the double figures but you'd be doing ok. I guess it's a matter of personal comfort.

Thanks for the feedback. Sometime you wonder who's out there listening. It's nice to know your efforts are appreciated. :)

[AngryPixie]

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=15882