Place System

[michaelg]

Rules of this Place system which has done quite well over the past few days.

Must be:
A ) Top Radio TAB selection.
B ) Top neural CF selection.
C ) Race distance to be less than 1,600 metres.

We'll see how it goes today:
Orange R3 no.1 - Letimgo
Sale R3 no.12 - Shinka
Sale R4 no.5 - King Hoaks
Tamworth R2 no.2 - Durga

[AngryPixie]

Place lay or place back?

[michaelg]

Surprisingly, it's a Place Back system as I've been focusing on Lay systems.

It's had a good strike rate with one or two divvies in the $1.70/1.80 range. I hope I now haven't given it the kiss of death.

[AngryPixie]

Nice. Thanks.

[michaelg]

There were 3 placegetters from yesterday's 4 selections for a loss of $0.50 on NSW TAB. Surprisingly it was break-even with Unitab divvies.

Four selections today:
Port Macquarie R1 no.8 - Spurnover
Port Macquarie R5 no.1 - Seen Im
Ararat R2 no.8 - Falvette
Ararat R3 no.5 - Sheer Vintage

[go4it]

Mick,
Just a suggestion,have you thought of maximising your return by playing your selections in all up doubles and trebles?

[michaelg]

Sometimes I have an all-up/parlay but mainly single bets. If it continues to perform I'll certainly have all-ups. Might even try it tomorrow if there are multiple selections at the same venue. Pity I didn't do it today.

[Bhagwan]

Hi michael,
Have you thought about restricting it to field sizes of 12 & less.
I have found that all place plans seem to work best with this rule.

Cheers,
Brian.

[Bhagwan]

Heres a place bet management plan that can work on selections with a
70% place SR & a min div of $1.30

Bet $10 until a place getter.
Bet $20 after a place getter.
Bet $15 if that loses
Bet $10 if that also loses.

Bank needed using a $10 base bet $450. (2.2% of bank)

Example.
1.30 x 10 = 13
1.40 x 20 = 28
1.40 x 20 = 28
1.80 x 20 = 36
L x 20
L x 15
L x 10
1.60 x 10 = 16
1.80 x 20 = 36
1.30 x 20 = 26
70% SR

Ret $183
O/L $165
Prof +18 = +11% POT

Using a fixed amount say $16 per bet .
Ret $170
O/L $160
Prof +$10 = +6% POT

A big difference of 5 points .

Try it out on some past results.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, very interesting staking method. My problem is often that I'm not at a computer, but if the system continues to perform I'll do it from day to day instead of from race to race, and also all-ups/parlays. But I'm not too confidant because the method is neural-related, hopefully I'll be proven wrong.

From the 8 selections there has been only one failure, and that was the only selection in a field of over 12 runners. So from today I'll identify any selection in fields of more than 12.

[michaelg]

Yesterday the four selections placed.

Today's selections:
Canterbury R4 no.9 - Simurgh
Dombeen R3 no.1 - Atillas Dane
Dombeen R8 no.1 - Final Crunch
Balaklave R5 no.4 - Romany Lady

13-plus starters:
Balaklava R1 no.1 - Giant Killer

[michaelg]

A bad day yesterday - one placegetter from the 4 selections. Two of the losers were just outside the placegetters so maybe there might be some merit??? We'll see how today goes.

Wyong R4 no.1 - Regal Celeb
Mornington R2 no.8 - Miss Meerkat
Townsville R8 no.2 - High Mountain
Naracoorte R2 no.8 - Gay Designer
Naracoorte R6 no.3 - Well Acted
Naracoorte R7 no.5 - Fancy Force
Naracoorte R8 no.4 - Sandhill Brave.


Applying the same rules but substituting neural CF with CP has performed quite well over the past few days. Let's see how it goes today:

Wyong R4 no.1 - Regal Celeb
Mornington 2 no.8 - Miss Meerkat
Townsville R4 no.1 - Expecting
Naracoorte 8 no.4 - Sandhill Brave

[Stix]

A bad day yesterday - one placegetter from the 4 selections. Two of the losers were just outside the placegetters so maybe there might be some merit??? We'll see how today goes.

Wyong R4 no.1 - Regal Celeb
Mornington R2 no.8 - Miss Meerkat
Townsville R8 no.2 - High Mountain
Naracoorte R2 no.8 - Gay Designer
Naracoorte R6 no.3 - Well Acted
Naracoorte R7 no.5 - Fancy Force
Naracoorte R8 no.4 - Sandhill Brave.


Applying the same rules but substituting neural CF with CP has performed quite well over the past few days. Let's see how it goes today:

Wyong R4 no.1 - Regal Celeb
Mornington 2 no.8 - Miss Meerkat
Townsville R4 no.1 - Expecting
Naracoorte 8 no.4 - Sandhill BraveImpressive WIN strike rate today..... ;)

[michaelg]

Yes, especially with the CP system - 3 winners from 4 selections whilst the CF system had a couple of good-priced winners - $4.20 and $5.00.

When I prepare the system which is usually before mid-day there are no WA selections on Radio TAB yet when I look later they list them. Why are they so late? - the scratchings are shown on Unitab at least an hour before they show the Radio TAB selections.

West Indies to beat Bangladesh in tonight's match - Brian Lara to score a double-century.

[michaelg]

CF Method.

From yesterday's 7 selections there were 6 successes for a profit of $1.80.

There have now been 14 successes from 18 selections for a profit of $1.70 (9% POT).

Today's selections:
Dubbo R2 no.6 - Omadarlin
Goulburn R5 no.5 - Graceful Act
Goulburn R6 no.4 - Dizzy Rocking
Goulburn R7 no.4 - Then Again
Ipswich R2 no.1 - Couples Of Three
Ipswich R7 no.4 - Southern Sister


CP Method.

Yesterday's 4 selections placed for a profit of $0.80.

Today's selections:
Goulburn R5 no.5 - Graceful Act
Goulburn R8 no.3 - Robure.

[partypooper]

michaelg, this ones doing well, did I read somewhere that you were quoting NSW divies? if so I'm sure that the POT would be significantly higher using Sportsbet, BEST TOTE (where available) and Country best (i.e. best of NSW and supertab) have you looked at that?

[michaelg]

Partypooper, yes I'm using NSW TAB divvies foe the sake of being conservative.

I don't have an account with any of those betting agencies you quoted, but I do with Mark Read. I would not be surprised if his Place divvies are better because I've often seen some beat all 3 TAB's, more so with the exotics.

Kiwis to lose tonight. Hayden to get a ton.

[partypooper]

michaelg, that's interesting will have another look at Mark Reed again, I seem to remember that he(they) were paying unitab divies for place betting but maybe that's changed, anyone know for sure??

[partypooper]

That was easy,

Bet IASbet SuperPrice and be guaranteed that the payout will exceed at least 2 Australian TABs, in fact SuperPrice often exceeds all Australian TABs for Win, Place, Quinella, Exacta, Trifecta and Multi-betting.

So probably better IAS if betting Country Best (best of NSW & Supertab) though not necessarily: eg. NSW $1.04, Supertab $1.40c, Unitab $1.10, so you are paid maybe $1.11c, whereas Sportsbet would have paid $1.40.

So it all depends on what has happened over a long period of time, does anyone have archived details on this??

[michaelg]

I think IAS erases their prices at the end of each day, and as far as I'm aware they don't archive them where they can be assessed but I could be wrong. You'd hope they'd be available for comparison just like Betfair Advantage.

[Twodogs]

Here you go they can be found here!!

Twodogs

ozeform.com/FormGuide/ResultsArchive.aspx

[partypooper]

Twodogs, thanks for that, though so far I can only figure out the present months archives, which is better than nothing but not enough. So far "of course" it looks like IAS (surprise, surprise) deletes the top payer of the three totes and then pays slightly higher than the best of the other two, which is USUALLY significantly LOWER than the best tote (which USUALLY just happens to be NSW or Supertab)

Which means that you would be far better off with Sportsbet.

Further investigation (I'm still on with it) looks like also highlighting that when they do pay higher than all 3 it's on outsiders NOT on the fancied runners (SURPRISE, SURPRISE)

But credit where it's due they do pay Top Fluc up to 45 mins b4 the race which is better than most. (win bets that is)

[Merriguy]

PP,

The archives do go back some distance --- more than twelve months at least. Just change the date in the box on the Results Archive page.

Remember that Sportsbet only give the City Best on Metrop meetings; otherwise it is the best of STab and NSWTab.

[michaelg]

Thanks, gents (and ladies, if any) for bringing that website and its features to my attention.

CF Method:

After a late scratching yesterday there were 5 selections for 4 successes providing a profit of $1.30.

There have now been 23 selections for 18 successes providing a POT of 13% and a strike rate of 78%.

Ten selections today:
Eagle Farm R6 no.2 - Love And Money
Eagle Farm R7 no.2 - Daunting Lad
Gold Coast R6 no.4 - Jay Low Girl
Toowoomba R4 no.2 - Semi Impose
Hawkesbury R6 no.2 - Beauty Watch
Cranbourne R3 no.11 - Praying
Cranbourne R6 no.4 - Sahara Shakedown
Cranbourne R8 no.1 - Count The Cost
Ascot R3 no.1 - Lacerate
Ascot R5 no.2 - Tip The Angel


CP Method.

There was one success from yesterday's two selections for a return of $1.60.

There have now been three successes from four selections for a POT of 6%.

7 selections today:
Eagle Farm R6 no.2 - Love And Money
Toowoomba R1 no.3 - Toohotforyou
Hawkesbury R1 no.1 - Sutton Friend
Hawkesbury R6 no.2 - Beauty Watch
Cranbourne R6 no.4 - Sahara Shaketown.
Ascot R3 no.1 - Lacerate
Ascot R5 no.2 - Tip The Angel

West Indies to smash the Poms tonight. Brian Lara to get a double-century in his final match.

[michaelg]

CF system - a poor day yesterday which almost buried the system. However as it is only suffering a LOT of 1.5% I'll list today's selections and hope...

Ballarat R5 no.1 - Nowhatimean
Ballarat R6 no.5 - Count To Zero
Sun Coast R4 no.6 - Lennie Sequalo
Sun Coast R7 no.3 - Haight Ashbury
Hobart R2 no.2 - Black Glennoel
Hobart R4 no.4 - Geejayhiach.

Interestingly there are a couple here that are also selections in the Lay thread.

[partypooper]

The thing is e.g. I have a place system that is in profit at almost 10% on Turnover this is 4 years now. During that time there have been several horrific patches of 20 or 30 selections which showed a terrible loss on their own, if you isolated them I mean, even though overall the system was still in profit. If you'd started on one of those bad runs, you'd have tossed it away as a dud!

[michaelg]

Very true, I'd probably have ended it. But the concern is that with a small sample that one never knows if it will improve or continue to go downhill.

10% over 4 years is brilliant.

[partypooper]

michaelg, yes it's a problem alright, unless you were able to apply the rules in retrospect and see how much you WOULD have won hee hee! where have I heard that before?

In my case I've only actually bet on this one for about 2 years but went back for 2 years hypothetical. Now what I noticed is that at first your POT is up and down like a yoyo, but by the time you have a thousand bets+ under your belt, even a horror run like 5 losers then $1.10c then 5 losers, hardly touches the overall POT, it just corrects itself over the next 20 bets or so.

[michaelg]

A better day yesterday - 5 successes from 6 selections for a return of $7.08.

There have now been 28 successes from 39 selections for a strike rate of 71% and a POT of 3.9%. Not much but at least it's now in profit.

Four selections today:
Taree R1 no.2 - Delphi
Taree R3 no.3 - Orero
Pakenham R4 no.9 - Olympias Girl
Pakenham R8 no.5 - Lucky Ruler

[michaelg]

A losing day yesterday - 2 successes from 4 selections for a loss of $0.70. However it should have been a winning day of $0.30 because I made a mistake by including a race that was not less than 1,600 metres, but I've got to include it in the results.

Today's selections:
Warwick Farm R1 no.1 - Ollie Vollie
Warwick Farm R3 no.4 - Nicaragua
Warwick Farm R5 no.5 - Helluva Party
Mackay R1 no.2 - Beutiful Divka
Mackay R3 no.4 - Mr Entertainment
Mackay R7 no.2 - Rock Of Mufasa.

Interestingly, there are a couple of selections that are also in the Lay system.

[savage]

Howdy Michaelg,

I have been working on a system that has produced 43% wins & 84% places.

I am new to the forum & was wondering how to get the best staking plan for these %'s.

Any help would be greatly appreciated. Below is previous thread.

I have been working on systems like most of you and was wondering if anyone can assess results.
I have 2 systems that i work on if anyone can comment on figures that would be great.
1) Started last month : Results for March 36 races, 23 Wins, 29 places
April 82 races, 26 Wins, 55 places
April is still continuing but is not performing as well

2) I have refined top system as of 19/4/2007
38 Races, 16 wins 32 places
Any analysis would be apporeciated

Todays selections - 27/4/2007

Colac - race 4 Number 1
Grafton - Race 7 Number 1
Queanbeyan - Race 3 Number 6
Race 8 Number 1
Rockhampton - Race 1 Number 3
Race 5 N 3

[michaelg]

Hi, Savage.

Those are very good strike rates. At this time I don't think there is a large enough sample to get too enthused even though both of them show much promise. I have had a few Place systems that have performed well but have eventually crashed, one even showed a good profit of after about 100 races and then it went backwards.

Having said that, I would not be discouraged because every winning system had to start somewhere, and might not even had such a good strike rate and profit as yours after the same amount of races.

As for a stakings plan - different people have different methods, and others don't believe in them. If you've seen Maria's thread, she maintained the same percentage of the bank, so when the bank increased so too did the size of her bets - and look at the success she had. Maybe you might consider this.

All your selections today have either won or placed - brilliant! It would appear they are all 100 pointers on Unitab?

[savage]

Hi, Savage.

Those are very good strike rates. At this time I don't think there is a large enough sample to get too enthused even though both of them show much promise. I have had a few Place systems that have performed well but have eventually crashed, one even showed a good profit of after about 100 races and then it went backwards.

Having said that, I would not be discouraged because every winning system had to start somewhere, and might not even had such a good strike rate and profit as yours after the same amount of races.

As for a stakings plan - different people have different methods, and others don't believe in them. If you've seen Maria's thread, she maintained the same percentage of the bank, so when the bank increased so too did the size of her bets - and look at the success she had. Maybe you might consider this.

All your selections today have either won or placed - brilliant! It would appear they are all 100 pointers on Unitab?Thanks for responding. I respect your comments. I have followed your threads for quite some time as well as others. I have combined various ideas from past threads with a few of my own filters.

Your right that it is early days yet.

To-day there were 6 Races 5 Wins & 6 Places

I would be interested in her thread asI have not read 1t

Tommorrows selections: I have to look at tracks & scratchings yet

Caulfield: R2/N2
R6/N4
Gold Coast R 5/N2
Morpetville R6/N1
Ascot R1/N3
R2/N1
R5/N1

[michaelg]

Savage, her website is expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=18713.0.

In case I have made a mistake in typing the web address it is also shown on page 1 of the Lay The Fave thread.

If it takes 2 hours for you to do your system it's well worth it. I'll be following your selections tomorrow, and most likely will have a bet on them - I probably won't be the only one here doing so.

[savage]

Savage, her website is expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=18713.0.

In case I have made a mistake in typing the web address it is also shown on page 1 of the Lay The Fave thread.

If it takes 2 hours for you to do your system it's well worth it. I'll be following your selections tomorrow, and most likely will have a bet on them - I probably won't be the only one here doing so.
Thanks again for you help

Hope you went well your bets.


Todays results 28/4

Morphetville no-go as slow track

Caulfield
R 2/ N 2 Placed $1.43
R 6/ N 4 Won $4.19 / $1.64
R 8/N 8 Placed $1.40
Gold. Coast
R 5/N 2 unplaced
Ascot
R 1/N3 Placed $1.21
R 2/N 1 Won $1.74 / 1.21
R 5/N 1 Won $2.60 / 1.30

Races 7 Wins 3 Places 6

So far 2 days postings Races 13 Wins 8 Places 12

<!-- / message --><!-- controls --> Win 61% Places 92% images/buttons/quote.gif (newreply.php?do=newreply&p=142885)

I have posted selections for Sunday on my thread. I still have to check tracks & scratchings to determine final selections

[partypooper]

again the winners

you got Mr6-4 $4.19 Maxi $4.60
PR2-1 $1.74 TF $1.90
PR5-1 $2.60 TF $3.10

a difference of over 1 full betting point ?????????


for the places not as dramatic TODAY, but still a significant improvement backing CITY BEST TOTE, as it ALWAYS will be.

[michaelg]

Here's a simple Place system that has performed well over the past few days.

1 ) 100 points on Unitab.
2 ) Top neural TIM selection.

The forum curse will now bury it.

Canterbury R2 no.1 - Swat
Canterbury R4 no.1 - Emperor Fu San
Canterbury R6 no.2 - Attend
Dombeen R3 no.2 - pegasus Pride
Dombeen R5 no.11 - Tails Are Wagging
Balaklava R4 no.1 - Kipchirdhir
Kempsey R2 no.1 - Thirtysixred
Kempsey R5 no.1 - Forest Path

[Chinbok]

Here's a simple Place system that has performed well over the past few days.

1 ) 100 points on Unitab.
2 ) Top neural TIM selection.

The forum curse will now bury it.

Canterbury R2 no.1 - Swat
Canterbury R4 no.1 - Emperor Fu San
Canterbury R6 no.2 - Attend
Dombeen R3 no.2 - pegasus Pride
Dombeen R5 no.11 - Tails Are Wagging
Balaklava R4 no.1 - Kipchirdhir
Kempsey R2 no.1 - Thirtysixred
Kempsey R5 no.1 - Forest Path Hi Michaelg,

Stats for Unitab Rating = 100 and Tim Rank = 1:

WSR 28.5%
W Pot -10.2%
PSR 58.5%
Pl Pot -7.5%

Using unitab divvies over 2.5 years.

Do you have a database for testing things like this? You come up with some good ideas and for the amount of time you put into it, you should have one. I can help you with it if you like.

[michaelg]

Thanks for your information, Chinbok. I don't have a database only because I know practically nothing about computers and would most likely be completely lost if trying to learn by correspondence. But many thanks for your kind offer.

I made a mistake with the rules - I should have stated DIST instead of TIM. Even then, I suppose a LOT of 7.5% isn't too harmful, and if City Best Tote as suggested by Partypooper is applied, then it might even have crossed over into profit. Again, its interesting to see with the neurals that Place is a better betting proposition than Win.

Hopefully DIST with Unitab 100-pointers might not fare too badly, and if it does then I'll be looking closely at filters, such as distance of race, condition of track...

Amazingly, after 5 races that have been run at the moment, four selections have placed for a return of $7.64 on NSW TAB.

[Chinbok]

Using Dist instead of Tim gives similar SR and POT results.

Using Dist AND Tim improves the Pl SR to 62.7% and PL Pot to -5.9%.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Chinbok.

I'll try to come up with some filters, and hope...