Big M's System....... some help?

[Magivor]

hi,

i have used DS's base ratings and tweaked it a bit to get my own figures,

i was just wondering if anybody could help me convert them to % chances & then $ figures for me to bet off?

they turned out as such

Armidale R7
4.-43.75
5.-41.5
2.-39
3.-38.5
6.-38
9.-36.5
11.-34.5
1.-32.5
12.-32.5
7.-30.75
10.-26
8-14
ps. they are all above zerio the - isnt minus.

any help appreciated,
Big M.

[Magivor]

note, 2 is scratched

[michaelg]

Big M, you can obtain a dollar-price for every horse in the race as per your ratings by going to the neural page for Armidale Race 7.

1 ) Change all 12 categories to zero.
2 ) Leave the PR category at 3 (or your preference) and change the Market % to 100 (or your preference)
3 ) Click Submit Change.
4 ) Input your ratings into the HCP column and then click Submit.

I've done it using your ratings, and no.4 which is your top rater is priced at $5.00. Your lowest rated which is no.8 is priced at $71. These prices have taken into account the scratching of no.2.

[Magivor]

ahhhh ofcourse! thanks michael!!

[Magivor]

Michael,

not sure how you came up with those figures,i came up with
1- $201.00 <?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O /><O:P></O:P>

3- $16.00 <O:P></O:P>

4- $1.80 <O:P></O:P>

5- $3.60 <O:P></O:P>

6- $21.00 <O:P></O:P>

7- $201.00 <O:P></O:P>

8- $201.00 <O:P></O:P>

9- $41.00 <O:P></O:P>

10- $201.00

<O:P></O:P>

11- $201.00 <O:P></O:P>

12- $201.00 <O:P></O:P>

Market%:100

currently Ias fixed odds i 2 horses are "overs"
$55 on 4 @ $3.20
$27 on 5 @ $4

[michaelg]

Big M.

I've checked my figures again and come to the same prices. Changing PR from a setting of 3 to 5 has no.4 at $2.90. Did you adjust your ratings for the scratching of no.2 - I simply deleted it and applied your original ratings.

No 4 has only 2.25 more points than your second-selection yet it is odds-on? Using PR at a setting of 5 has the winner at $6 - it paid slightly in excess on Unitab.

When the new updates were introduced a few months ago I was getting conflicting information/ratings when using Firefox and Internet Explorer. I informed the webmaster who said it would be rectified. Maybe there is still a problem?

[Magivor]

what i did, is i cleared out all dons info and just wacked the final number a came up with in dons Base Rating box.

[michaelg]

I didn't realise that could be done.

His calculation method must be different to the way the neurals do theirs. It strongly appears he is more generous to the higher fancied horses just as the PR algorithym is when on high settings. For example, on a setting of 3, the top selection was $5 yet when changed to a setting of 5, the top selection reduces to $2.90.

[Magivor]

ahh i see,
i'v rated 2 races so far;
in the first 3 selections both time's the quinella has popped up,$8 & $82, there was a $6 winner [considerable unders] and a $49.50 [considerable overs, rated at $7]

The next two i have rated are;
Moonee Valley
Race 4-
Savlate $1.85
Polish Clown $3.70
Purple Chocolate $5.50
[ every other runner @ $201]

Race 6-
Dr. Niptuck $2.10
Ghost Party $5
Bexaar $8
Formal Attire $10
[one at $26; a few at $71; the rest at $201]

im going to do the quaddie legs and work around the top 3 or 4 raters in each race for the quaddie.

[michaelg]

I've had a look at his ratings over a few weeks but could not make heads or tails with some of them. I remember in one particular race he rated the Betfair fave at $200, yes $200, which I layed - it ran a very close second. According to the form, I could find no weaknesses with it yet he priced it at $200!!!

I've even tried to see if there were particular races where his ratings were successful - but could find no clues. If someone uses his method to calculate prices, I wonder if they would be identical to those shown on the website? He seems to have many short-priced faves, and having read his book there were not all that many, if any, in his samples. Anyway, hopefully you will be more successful with his ratings than I've been having.

[Magivor]

maybe i should set my markets to 85-90%

[Magivor]

****** Best Bet Of The Day!*****

ippy, race 1
number 9-$1.20
number 8-$8.5
every other runner- $101

[michaelg]

Don Scott used a market of 80% in his calcs as the bookies set their prices to approx 110%, but if you're going to bet with Betfair then maybe 85 or 90% might be more suitable as the prices available are generally better than the bookies.

The pre-post market today for Ipswich R1 has no.8 as the fave. We'll see what happens.

Good luck.