The secret to winning from form is understanding pace!

[crash]

Oh yes it's true.

Every [fit for the run] horse running can be a ****** or a Champion depending on the race pace, the track and distance and the barrier and depending on what type of pace suits the horse, the experience of the jockey. Some runners could win with your Granny aboard [on-pacers drawn within 1 to 9 barrier or back-markers from a wide alley] and others need a very experienced jockey aboard [leaders who need an experienced judge of pace over the distance].

Any horse on the day can have a rating from very low to very high, depending on all of the above. Working it all out is the form student's key.
My original thoughts are also the reason that favorites often get a drubbing and long-shots gets up and win!

[partypooper]

Well Foinavon 100-1 (a milk cart horse) won the Grand National so I guess that proves your point Crash.

Though still Favs win 30% of races and the REST of the field wins 70%!

[crash]

Everything must have been perfect on the day for Foinavon and terrible for the rest of the field! :-0

Favorites lose so often because the public punter judges [95% of them anyway] the horse on every bit of previous form EXCEPT it's natural pace [not in the form guides] and how that will fit in to the natural pace of the runners it's is about to compete against.

Understanding and knowing a horse's pace is the next step [up] in form study understanding I think and from that position a much truer value of the odds on offer can be judged.

I'm still learning and there is a lot more to learn. Spending a bit of money on a form service that tells me every horse's pace in any race, has been the best investment I've ever made. I've certainly noticed a big improvement in my punting account.

I find great value in targeting backmarkers in outside alleys in races with more than one leader which provides plenty of pace [the backmarker The Jackal winning from the outside barrier last Saturday was a good example of value].

Leaders with a good jockey in races where they are the only leader in the field [jockey can control the pace] is another good earn area too.

[partypooper]

worse than that crash, the entire field fell, Foinavon about a kilometer behined vitually walked through the hole in the fence and staggered over the line, I'm not joking...... a few jockeys managed to re-mount to finish and nearly caught him! (think it was a him)

[Chrome Prince]

Crash,

It seems that pace and draw together are really only investigated in the greys and trots, and perhaps the Golden Slipper, the rest of the time - it's pretty much ignored.

I still haven't been able to quantify pressure in a race, it's not the first sectional, it's not the last, and it certainly isn't the race time, but it's in there somewhere.

Me old mate California Dane is the prime example, he just cannot handle anything bigger than a low grade Group 3, put him back to Listed and he bolts home, put him up to Group 2 and he runs midfield.

This is a track record holder and his best times, say he should easily win a Group 1, but he can't take the pressure and runs tailed off - yet the racetime is slower!

I know a lot of punters and bookies use speed maps, but not in the way you describe, so you're probably getting quite a few overlays with your method.

[Crackone]

I remember a member a few years ago who had a web site based on speed ratings, very good it was until he closed it down.

[crash]

There is nothing real complex in what I'm now doing but I've been in good profit since I seriously started using the method about a year ago.
Then it was just backmarkers from outside[ish] alleys and my first win was Ice Chariot in barrier 14 in his race before the Qld Derby. Payed $17w. And stone the crows he draws the 14 alley in the Derby and did it all again at another good price [he's been a dud after those wins]!

I've been quietly taking some very good collects ever since from the right backmarkers but now I include searching for lone leaders with a senior jockies as that's a very good area to look into as well.

Mid-pacers [must have a good Jock] and on-pacers [any jock] are a bit harder to figure and my success in that area has been mixed. Still, after a year it's all become a relatively simple method of following and sticking with good prices. As far as speed maps go, well I'm not really doing that. As long as the horse is capable of a good sectional [for the class of race] in the right contd. to suit and the price is good, I hop aboard.

Simple but very effective.

I think California Dane is a bit of a sook. Your right about the time but it's never just time that counts. Some very slow horses have been winning a lot of races and one in particular. I dare not mention the name as she is considered by some a 'Champion'. I don't wont to cause a riot!

[crash]

EG the lone backmarker method:

The G1 tomorrow in Brissy has 3 leaders [plenty of pace] and only 1 backmarker. The money for Takover Target will of course be odds-on. But for the only backmarker Black Ink with Ollie on -board, might have the odds worth taking.

Takeover Target's 2nd.-up record isn't very flash either: Only 1 win from 4 starts.

[AngryPixie]

Guys

Have you been following Pharfromoz's postings in the Horse Racing Forum. S/he's punting from Palm Springs and is turning up some nice winners using various pace and distance methods adopted from the US. Worth a read and a brain pick or two.

[crash]

Here is my take on tomorrow Sat. from my backmarker and lone leader method. Lets see how they go.

Sat. 12/5/07
Melb.
3/3 4912 Okay Oky (5)" [B]*
6/6 5500 Crepe De Chine (NZ) (15)" [L]should cross to lead.
8/2 0x58 True Courser (14)" [B]*

DOOMBEN
2/15 1x36 Deception Bay (13) [B]*
3/7 1973 Primal Impulse (12) [B]*
4/10 2173 Chabeli (14)" [L] should cross to lead.

MORPHETTVILLE
5/3 x424 Our Currency (4)" [L]*
6/4 2118 Jest For Fun (9)" [B]
7/13 6554 I'm A Goody (9)" [L]*

[crash]

Guys

Have you been following Pharfromoz's postings in the Horse Racing Forum. S/he's punting from Palm Springs and is turning up some nice winners using various pace and distance methods adopted from the US. Worth a read and a brain pick or two.

Never heard of her. Whats the site reference?

[horsewatcher]

There is nothing real complex in what I'm now doing but I've been in good profit since I seriously started using the method about a year ago.
Then it was just backmarkers from outside[ish] alleys and my first win was Ice Chariot in barrier 14 in his race before the Qld Derby. Payed $17w. And stone the crows he draws the 14 alley in the Derby and did it all again at another good price [he's been a dud after those wins]!

I've been quietly taking some very good collects ever since from the right backmarkers but now I include searching for lone leaders with a senior jockies as that's a very good area to look into as well.

Mid-pacers [must have a good Jock] and on-pacers [any jock] are a bit harder to figure and my success in that area has been mixed. Still, after a year it's all become a relatively simple method of following and sticking with good prices. As far as speed maps go, well I'm not really doing that. As long as the horse is capable of a good sectional [for the class of race] in the right contd. to suit and the price is good, I hop aboard.

Simple but very effective.

I think California Dane is a bit of a sook. Your right about the time but it's never just time that counts. Some very slow horses have been winning a lot of races and one in particular. I dare not mention the name as she is considered by some a 'Champion'. I don't wont to cause a riot!

any feedback on front-runners who lead the field almost to the winning post, then due to lack of stamina fade and the whole field almost beats them yet next time out, win the race. front -runners form often reads more changeable than back -markers

[partypooper]

ho ho ho, LOVE it!

[crash]

any feedback on front-runners who lead the field almost to the winning post, then due to lack of stamina fade and the whole field almost beats them yet next time out, win the race. front -runners form often reads more changeable than back -markers

You have brought up a good point here horsewatcher and the fade bit and being swamped by the field is often true.

However, I'm talking another kettle of fish. What is usually happening in what you describe is in races with more than one leader who end up knocking themselves out up front setting the race up for the mid-pacers and or backmarkers.
If it is a lone leader who is swamped, it's almost always because it is being ridden by a [usually an inexperienced apprentice] jockey who is a poor judge of race pace.

Put a good senior jockey on a lone leader and there is no way the horse will knock up over the distance. In fact the jockey will slow the race down as much and for as long as possible [not good for backmarkers who need the pace on], and then just sprint away from the turn and be hard to catch over the short distance left to the finish post.

Anyhow, in the list of horses I've tagged on the previous page who race today, the ones marked [L] leaders are all lone leaders in those races.
The potential is there for them to win due to the tactics I've described. Of course there are many reasons they might be beaten too. The potential for the jockey to control the race pace though [a big advantage], won't be one of them.

The selection list is not from studied form on those races, they are just all the horses from the three cards who have the unique conditions I am talking about: More than one leader in the race for the backmarkers mentioned and being a sole leader in the race for the leaders I've mentioned. No other criteria at all. Took me about 15min. to do the list.

[crash]

Here is my take on tomorrow Sat. from my backmarker and lone leader method. Lets see how they go.

Sat. 12/5/07
Melb.
3/3 4912 Okay Oky (5)" [B]
6/6 5500 Crepe De Chine (NZ) (15)" [L]should cross to lead.
8/2 0x58 True Courser (14)" [B]

DOOMBEN
2/15 1x36 Deception Bay (13) [B]
3/7 1973 Primal Impulse (12) [B]
4/10 2173 Chabeli (14)" [L] should cross to lead.

MORPHETTVILLE
5/3 x424 Our Currency (4)" [L]
6/4 2118 Jest For Fun (9)" [B]
7/13 6554 I'm A Goody (9)" [L]

From this 15min. effort list, I'll do the race form and if the odds are overs in my opinion they will be firm win bets [I'm not really an e/w man]. There should be 3 to 5 bets and I'll probably have a couple of parley bets too.

This is not a tipping exercise. The list above is just to see how they all go from the minimal requirements I've outlined for backmarkers and Leaders.

Hopefully I might achieve a bit of interest to extend form study into the area of pace and how it can be exploited to the punter's advantage.

Oh yes and by the by. The backmarker Ice Chariot whom I mentioned earlier I'd won on [$17w] a year ago when I kicked off with this method, is in the same race again today in Brissy [a lot of kiwi horses over here though that are hard to line up]. Same barrier 14 too!

[crash]

Having a closer look at the form of the above races, these have good chances I think but Brissy is a hard day for most races. 'Jest for Fun' was a Mid-pacer so he's off the above method list.

Sat. 12/5/07
Melb.
3/3 4912 Okay Oky (5) [B] No win bet as will be too short for my liking.
8/2 0x58 True Courser (14) [B]*


DOOMBEN
2/15 1x36 Deception Bay (13) [B]* [best bet of the three races I think]
3/7 1973 Primal Impulse (12) [B]
4/10 2173 Chabeli (14) [L] should cross to lead.

MORPHETTVILLE
7/13 6554 I'm A Goody (9) [L]

5 bets here with a few parlays for r3/r8 in Melb. and r2/r3, r2/r4 in Brissy. Hopefuly I'll come out OK on the day and if not, well it won't be the first time I've looked sillly.

[crash]

Well there go my Brissy parleys. I couldn't believe Boss's poor ride. Why in the blazes did he not sit at the tail instead of immediately moving up to mid-field? He was on a backmarker for heaven sakes, not a mid-pacer!

[stugots]

lost confidence is bossys judgement sometime ago, he probably gets it right more often than he does wrong, but thats not good enough for someone with his talent

they all look like champs & masters of the universe when riding out & out freaks, but there seems to be only one current jock that can consistently turn an average nag into a winner

[crash]

I'm still alive in my Melb. parley. I couldn't believe $ 2.60w on Okay Oky. I thought it would start odds-on.

[crash]

Bets:
DOOMBEN
2/15 1x36 Deception Bay (13) [B] unp.
3/7 1973 Primal Impulse (12) [B] 28.80/5.50 e/w [3rd. Took an e/w at a price that was way, way overs]
4/10 2173 Chabeli (14) [L] should cross to lead. [missed the jump and got lost out the back].

MORPHETTVILLE
7/13 6554 I'm A Goody (9) [L]

Melb.
3/3 4912 Okay Oky (5) [B] win. Took the $2.60w price. Should have been odds-on.
8/2 0x58 True Courser (14) [B] 4th. took an e/w at odds.

A very disappointing day but I wouldn't judge the method by it. It was a very odd day in most states.

[crash]

Interestingly, todays selection of lone leaders [any barrier] and backmarkers from outside barriers where there is more than 1 leader, without any study of the form of the race or these horse's form, produced the following results from these 3 meetings:

Casterton
4/8 1440 Super Mario (8)" L 9.20w 3.00p
5/6 2603 Semper Paratus (7)" L 6.10w 2.10p
6/6 35x2 Soul Prince (4)" L 1.90p
Gunnedah
7/12 2112 Miss Sarah Jane (8)" L unp.
8/15E x045 Last Little Indian (2)" L 3.80p
Sale
4/7 6x36 Bourbanbretty (10)" L unp.
5/7 353x Our Black Douglas (NZ) (12)" B unp
6/12 3250 For Now (9)" L 3.10p
7/2 10x6 Royal Lakes (8)" L 4.10p
9/4 7341 Hoaks (18)" B 13.40w B 3.70p

A good day for the win or place bettor [Unitab prices].

[crash]

Monday 14/7/07

A couple of pathetic meetings but lets have a look out of interest [no form study].

Pakenham
7/7 90x0 Baron Ruthven (16)" B
8/8 1009 Cavalier Queen (12)" L [1100m If she can cross cross over to lead quick enough]
9/3 9x53 Voukefalos (14)" B

Port Macquarie
7/1 4x16 General Ledger (11)" B
8/1 3314 Calder (8)" L
9/10 3354 Ravinsky (NZ) (18)" L [1400m If he can cross over]
----------------------------------------------------------------

[crash]

9/10 3354 Ravinsky (NZ) (18)" L [Scratched].

[wise one]

Crash

This is a very interesting thread.

When you look at the lone leaders, do you take into acount their distance record?

like you see horses that can run 1200 metres but die in a hole over 1300 metres, so if they are the lone leader in a 1300 metre or greater distance do you still select them?

Wise one

[crash]

Crash

This is a very interesting thread.

When you look at the lone leaders, do you take into account their distance record?

like you see horses that can run 1200 meters but die in a hole over 1300 metres, so if they are the lone leader in a 1300 metre or greater distance do you still select them?

Wise one

Todays and Sunday's selections were just the runners that met my original criteria, without the slightest look at their form for anything, including suitability over the distance. track. condt. etc. Whether the selections are good first up, second up or anything else. Takes me about 10min. max.

Naturally for betting purposes it would be a good idea to scrutinize the form suitability for the races they are now running in which would produce less runners to bet on but produce higher overall win SR. Then again, considering Sunday's results, it might be better to ignore the form completely!

Well I did finally have a peek at the form of today's runners and I 'm going to back them. Anything over 5/1 I'll back ew. The Leader Cavalier Queen's last win over 1100m was also from the outside barrier [same class] with the same jockey, so I'll take that bet too.

I've been picking up handfuls of very nice priced winners over the last 12mths. now that I'm concentrating on pace in my form study.

[crash]

Port Macquire is SLOW so I'll leave that meeting alone as 2 bets are top weights and haven't any proven wet track form.

[wesmip1]

crash,

Do you mind telling me where you get your form for determining if it is a leader, on pace, midfield, backmaker ?

Or how you determine the classification from form data available.

Thanks

[crash]

crash,

Do you mind telling me where you get your form for determining if it is a leader, on pace, midfield, backmaker ?

Or how you determine the classification from form data available.

Thanks

I have been using Past the Post for about a year: http://www.pastthepost.com.au/ There is about 5 different form guide options.
I use 'fields' to get the basic lists I've shown here and I mainly use 'Time-long form' [last 10 starts and includes adjusted times for distance and other time considerations too] for serious form study. Most horses are rated [dry or wet ratings] and almost all have running position [L, P, M, B]. The site is cheap for the info available so it doesn't have scratchings.

Todays 3 selected runners were 60/1 16/1, 18/1 so they didn't really firm into betting propositions but I did have a small e/w on the 16/1 for zero result. The track was dead 4 too.

[wesmip1]

crash,

Thanks for the answer.

I'll check them out. Interestingly I checked those horses on Racing and sports and found that

7/1 4x16 General Ledger (11)" B - regarded as on the pace
8/1 3314 Calder (8)" L - - regarded as on the pace but not the only one.

Interestingly though if you use the AES and AFS figures Calder was far superior to the other horses and was an obvious leader.

7/7 90x0 Baron Ruthven (16)" B - regarded as an Off Midfield ( Backmacker in this race)
8/8 1009 Cavalier Queen (12)" L - regarded as n the pace but so were a lot of other horses.
9/3 9x53 Voukefalos (14)" B - regarded as midfield but AFS suggest a strong finisher.
Just thought I would mention it as it would suggest that different places regard horses as different types of runners.

Good Luck.

[kiwi]

Thanks for the site Crash, good free course diagrams and time info on there:)

[mv2040]

hi crash,

im curious, what form service do you subscribe to?

if possible could you email me at sirbecks@hotmail.com i would be very grateful.

[crash]

crash,

Thanks for the answer.

I'll check them out. Interestingly I checked those horses on Racing and sports and found that

7/1 4x16 General Ledger (11)" B - regarded as on the pace
8/1 3314 Calder (8)" L - - regarded as on the pace but not the only one.

Interestingly though if you use the AES and AFS figures Calder was far superior to the other horses and was an obvious leader.

7/7 90x0 Baron Ruthven (16)" B - regarded as an Off Midfield ( Backmacker in this race)
8/8 1009 Cavalier Queen (12)" L - regarded as n the pace but so were a lot of other horses.
9/3 9x53 Voukefalos (14)" B - regarded as midfield but AFS suggest a strong finisher.
Just thought I would mention it as it would suggest that different places regard horses as different types of runners.

Good Luck.

In 38yrs of punting I've never heard of an 'Off-midfield runner' [?] Is that a horse that runs off the track at the turn from a mid-field position? :-))

The runners I supplied here were not from studied form, just as listed according to my criteria. I check horse history regularly and personally find PastthePost fairly accurate in the nominated running category they list the horses [I ignore maidens and 2yr. old races]. Their time-form analysis which I use as part of final bet selection, is better than anywhere on the net in my opinion and their ratings as an initial guide aren't too bad either. Horse running position at such low class meetings as the one you mention that are also DEAD and SLOW, are always going to be a bit iffy or 'hows your father'. Regardless of source.

Anyhow, wherever or how punters check horse's usual running position [where they mostly are on the turn] and form, the purpose of this thread is to encourage more thought about pace, not to create a tipping thread or to promote any particular form service . Checking horse history to work out a horse's most common running position, is free on certain sites, but horrendously slow of course. Where punters get their form info. paid for or free, is their call.


Cheers.

[crash]

Some of these might be worth a look at today [PP odds]:

Wed. 16/5/07
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
2/5 0x62 She Does It (5)" L 7.50
5/10 0134 Telecom Boom (13)" L 9.00
6/9 26x2 Red Jesteress (6)" B 15.00
7/14 340x Impinge (NZ) (17)" B 11.00
8/14 5x32 Saliente (15)" L 12.00
9/14 2x73 Sopratutto (12)" L 17.00
BALAKLAVA
5/4 1025 Rude 'n' Abrupt (9)" L 4.00
6/5 6381 Towngossip (9)" L 4.60
7/6 0035 Sedbergh (10)" B 6.00
EAGLE FARM
5/1 x006 Auditorium (5)" L 6.00
6/1 x100 Quizzical Lady (4)" L 2.00
8/7 2203 Annigoni (1)" B 13.00 [can often easily slip out the back from this alley with a deliberate slow jump away].
9/5 4336 Final Crunch (7)" L 7.00
BELMONT PARK
8/6 3x08 Young ********** (1)" L 7.50
RANDWICK-KENSING
1/3 3487 Ashkabar (6)" L 6.00
4/5 6325 Grizz (NZ) (9)" L 9.00
6/4 71x Colpetty (10)" B 15.00
7/9 6x80 Abacazam (NZ) (9)" L 17.00
------------------------------------------

[wesmip1]

Crash,

Just interested in your thoughts on the barrier position in relation to a backmaker vs a leader.

Do you find it has a long term impact ? ie Leaders from inside positions are going to find it much easier then from wider barriers. I don't think inside barriers affect backmakers as much as they can start off slow if they want to.

Good Luck.

[crash]

I have found backmarkers from inside alleys [except perhaps barrier 1 or 2 say] more or less have to go forward with the pace for general field safety reasons and require a good senior jockey [and a bit of luck] usually, to get into a winning position from anywhere except outside alleys.

From the outside alleys, far less experience is required and overall outside barrier lanes suit Backmarkers as much as inside lanes suit leaders. Safety is always a big thing and most jockeys drawn badly on backmarkers will be there for the scenery as they like to go home at night. If it's a big race [$$$] they might take a few worthwhile risks.

Sole leaders require riders with a good judge of pace [senior Jockey in most cases] or they will burn out before the post with poor pace judgment. Inside barriers are best but it's not that hard for a lone leader with a good jockey to cross early from the outside lanes as long as they get a clean jump away [stuffed otherwise]. 1100m + distances for obvious reasons, recommended in those situations though.

[crash]

Some of these might be worth a look at today [PP odds]:

Wed. 16/5/07
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
2/5 0x62 She Does It (5)" L 7.50
5/10 0134 Telecom Boom (13)" L 9.00
6/9 26x2 Red Jesteress (6)" B 15.00
7/14 340x Impinge (NZ) (17)" B 11.00
8/14 5x32 Saliente (15)" L 12.00
9/14 2x73 Sopratutto (12)" L 17.00
BALAKLAVA
5/4 1025 Rude 'n' Abrupt (9)" L 4.00
6/5 6381 Towngossip (9)" L 4.60
7/6 0035 Sedbergh (10)" B 6.00
EAGLE FARM
5/1 x006 Auditorium (5)" L 6.00
6/1 x100 Quizzical Lady (4)" L 2.00
8/7 2203 Annigoni (1)" B 13.00 [can often easily slip out the back from this alley with a deliberate slow jump away].
9/5 4336 Final Crunch (7)" L 7.00
BELMONT PARK
8/6 3x08 Young ********** (1)" L 7.50
RANDWICK-KENSING
1/3 3487 Ashkabar (6)" L 6.00
4/5 6325 Grizz (NZ) (9)" L 9.00
6/4 71x Colpetty (10)" B 15.00
7/9 6x80 Abacazam (NZ) (9)" L 17.00
------------------------------------------

Obviously by their SP's I didn't back 90% of these!

Wed. 16/5/07
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
12.23pm. 2/5 0x62 She Does It (5)" L 4.20sp [oh no she didn't today!]
2.08pm. 5/10 0134 Telecom Boom (13)" L 6.10sp
2.43pm. 6/9 26x2 Red Jesteress (6)" B 15.20sp
3.18pm. 7/14 340x Impinge (NZ) (17)" B 19.60sp
3.55pm. 8/14 5x32 Saliente (15)" L 10.30sp
4.35pm. 9/14 2x73 Sopratutto (12)" L 22.10sp
BALAKLAVA
2.53pm 5/4 1025 Rude 'n' Abrupt (9)" L 2.70sp [2.70w 1.50p]
3.28pm 6/5 6381 Towngossip (9)" L 5.40sp
4.08pm. 7/6 0035 Sedbergh (10)" B 4.20sp [4.20w 2.10p]
EAGLE FARM
2.00pm. 5/1 x006 Auditorium (5)" L 28.60sp
2.35pm. 6/1 x100 Quizzical Lady (4)" L 2.00sp [1.30p]
3.48pm. 8/7 2203 Annigoni (1)" B 6.80sp
4.28pm. 9/5 4336 Final Crunch (7)" L 22.20sp
BELMONT PARK
6.32pm. 8/6 3x08 Young ********** (1)" L 35.40sp
RANDWICK-KENSING
12.38pm. 1/3 3487 Ashkabar (6)" L 3.60sp
2.25pm. 4/5 6325 Grizz (NZ) (9)" L 8.20sp
3.35pm. 6/4 71x Colpetty (10)" B 52.40sp
4.15pm. 7/9 6x80 Abacazam (NZ) (9)" L 75.30sp

[wesmip1]

thanks for the repsonse.