horsewatcher
12th May 2007, 07:59 PM
The following are some of my selection methods
1. In open gender handicaps races , I never back mares between 1,100 and 2,000 metres, I find over 2,000 metres mares have a good chance if the form is reasonable.
2.. In maidens with no exposed form. the best breed horse which is breed for the distance is worth looking at , for example if the service fee for a horse is $300,000 and the other is $500, the $300,000 horse has to win more races to justify the large service fee , also i look at new season sires that are only new to australia with excellent oversea form.
3. In maidens ,i have noticed that when the form is exposed for some and is only poor overall and unexposed for others, if there is only one horse in the race and it is having it's second start in a race and at its first start it was placed around 6.5 lengths from the winner,often it will win at its second race.
4. Inexperienced apprentices with a 3kg allowances on good horses in country races often fall to win.
5. The last three race results are not always important in picking a winner, what is more imporant is the class of the race,that the horse ran in it's last races , the placing percentage should be around 50 percent up to 2,000 metres races , stayers over 2,000 metres often win less races percentage wise. the critical factor when i look at form is the amount of races the horse has won at the distance, many horses are distant specialist for example the 1,000 metre race.
In trotters also with bad current form, win races if the distances winning percentages are high and overall percentage winning form is sound , i have picked hundreds of winners around 50 to 80 /1 using this methods.
6. Never bet under the odds, for example desert war failed in its last run at around $1.30 but won around $8 recently went it returned from a spell.
7. Media picked horses often fail so picking a horse that is not listed in the media pickings has a better valued price and is mostly overpriced
8. I never follow plunges because we often don't know the reason, it could just be a large all-up bet or an over large un-informed bet that started the plunge .
9. Pace , always watch front runners if they are swamped and fail just near the winning post , horses that finishes 15 lengths or more in the last 3 or more races and were last backmarkers all the way should never be considered in any multiple betting
10. exact betting is the best exotic betting, when the winner is a higher price than the second place getter.
11. country racing is better city racing usually because in some country races, some horse have no ability at all ,while in many city races every horse in the race has some chance.
this is only part of my selection methods any feedback welcomed.
1. In open gender handicaps races , I never back mares between 1,100 and 2,000 metres, I find over 2,000 metres mares have a good chance if the form is reasonable.
2.. In maidens with no exposed form. the best breed horse which is breed for the distance is worth looking at , for example if the service fee for a horse is $300,000 and the other is $500, the $300,000 horse has to win more races to justify the large service fee , also i look at new season sires that are only new to australia with excellent oversea form.
3. In maidens ,i have noticed that when the form is exposed for some and is only poor overall and unexposed for others, if there is only one horse in the race and it is having it's second start in a race and at its first start it was placed around 6.5 lengths from the winner,often it will win at its second race.
4. Inexperienced apprentices with a 3kg allowances on good horses in country races often fall to win.
5. The last three race results are not always important in picking a winner, what is more imporant is the class of the race,that the horse ran in it's last races , the placing percentage should be around 50 percent up to 2,000 metres races , stayers over 2,000 metres often win less races percentage wise. the critical factor when i look at form is the amount of races the horse has won at the distance, many horses are distant specialist for example the 1,000 metre race.
In trotters also with bad current form, win races if the distances winning percentages are high and overall percentage winning form is sound , i have picked hundreds of winners around 50 to 80 /1 using this methods.
6. Never bet under the odds, for example desert war failed in its last run at around $1.30 but won around $8 recently went it returned from a spell.
7. Media picked horses often fail so picking a horse that is not listed in the media pickings has a better valued price and is mostly overpriced
8. I never follow plunges because we often don't know the reason, it could just be a large all-up bet or an over large un-informed bet that started the plunge .
9. Pace , always watch front runners if they are swamped and fail just near the winning post , horses that finishes 15 lengths or more in the last 3 or more races and were last backmarkers all the way should never be considered in any multiple betting
10. exact betting is the best exotic betting, when the winner is a higher price than the second place getter.
11. country racing is better city racing usually because in some country races, some horse have no ability at all ,while in many city races every horse in the race has some chance.
this is only part of my selection methods any feedback welcomed.