Using Key Races

[wesmip1]

All,

Here is a concept from handicapping that seems to work well (because it is time consuming and people don't use it).

I am not sure how to explain it so I will just do an example.

See Eagle Farm Race 1 on 16/5/2007. For those who don't want to go search for the race here is the finishing order of the top 7 horses:

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=741 border=0><TBODY><TR class=texttab><TD align=middle>1</TD><TD align=middle>CONQUERING SPIRIT</TD><TD align=middle>58.5</TD><TD align=middle>.8</TD><TD align=middle>D GRIFFIN</TD><TD align=middle>9 </TD><TD align=middle>$4.5</TD><TD align=middle>8450</TD><TD align=middle>3,2


</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>GILLIAN HEINRICH</TD></TR><TR class=texttab bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>2</TD><TD align=middle>KEELROW</TD><TD align=middle>53.0</TD><TD align=middle>.8</TD><TD align=middle>AMY TAYLOR</TD><TD align=middle>12</TD><TD align=middle>$4.5</TD><TD align=middle>2600</TD><TD align=middle>9,6


</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>TONY SEARS</TD></TR><TR class=texttab><TD align=middle>3</TD><TD align=middle>LADY SHOWHEART</TD><TD align=middle>53.5</TD><TD align=middle>.9</TD><TD align=middle>S SEAMER</TD><TD align=middle>10</TD><TD align=middle>$15</TD><TD align=middle>1300</TD><TD align=middle>4,3


</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>KEVIN KEMP</TD></TR><TR class=texttab bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>4</TD><TD align=middle>JELLICLES</TD><TD align=middle>55.0</TD><TD align=middle>1.1</TD><TD align=middle>S KATSIDIS</TD><TD align=middle>8 </TD><TD align=middle>$7</TD><TD align=middle>650</TD><TD align=middle>1,1


</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>KELLY SCHWEIDA</TD></TR><TR class=texttab><TD align=middle>5</TD><TD align=middle>AGNES DREAM </TD><TD align=middle>55.5</TD><TD align=middle>1.3</TD><TD align=middle>C WHITELEY</TD><TD align=middle>1 </TD><TD align=middle>$4.25F</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>2,4


</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>ALAN BAILEY</TD></TR><TR class=texttab bgColor=#ffffff><TD align=middle>6</TD><TD align=middle>CLASSIC FORCE </TD><TD align=middle>55.5</TD><TD align=middle>2.3</TD><TD align=middle>J BOWDITCH</TD><TD align=middle>6 </TD><TD align=middle>$17</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>12 ,12


</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>TREVOR BAILEY</TD></TR><TR class=texttab><TD align=middle>7</TD><TD align=middle>JEWEL VAULT</TD><TD align=middle>54.0</TD><TD align=middle>3.5</TD><TD align=middle>B PENGELLY</TD><TD align=middle>11</TD><TD align=middle>$17</TD><TD align=middle>0</TD><TD align=middle>11 ,11


</TD><TD align=middle></TD><TD align=middle>DESLEIGH FORSTER</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Lets have a look at each horse from this race :

JEWEL VAULT - No Races Since
CLASSIC FORCE - No Races Since
AGNES DREAM - No Races Since
JELLICLES - WIN IPSWICH 30/5/2007
LADY SHOWHEART - WIN TOOWOOMBA 26/5/2007
KEELROW - No Races Since
CONQUERING SPIRIT -No Races Since

The only 2 horses which have had a race since this race have won. This points to a good indicator for the top two finishers who are yet to race again.

Based on this we can assume that KEELROW should be a likely winner in his next race as will CONQUERING SPIRIT.

We can extend this further to identify whether they went up or down in class to get the wins and we find that :

JELLICLES - WIN (DOWN IN CLASS 13K -> 7K)
LADY SHOWHEART - WIN (DOWN IN CLASS 13K -> 10K)

If we find KEELROW or CONQUERING SPIRIT running in a 10K race or under it would be worth a bet.

This is a real time example so we will have to wait for these 2 horses to run in order to see the outcome of the race.

But you have to agree it makes common sense.

Good Luck.

[wesmip1]

Another example of how this works (much older though):

SHOWIFY was beaten by MAXIMGUN on 31/08/2006 in an 11K race. SHOWIFY went on the win his next race (15/09/2006) by 5.5 lengths in a 9K race. This suggested that MAXIMGUN should be a bet on 9K races or under.

MAXIMGUN races in a 20K race on 17/09/2006 - NO BET (Over 9K)
MAXIMGUN races in a 8K race on 3/11/2006 - LOST
MAXIMGUN races in a 11K race on 17/12/2006 - NO BET (Over 9K)
MAXIMGUN races in a 8K race on 26/12/2006 - BET WIN $15.30

This was an obvious bet when you look at the other favs in the race:

NARING GOLD - Neither horse that had beaten him in the previous race had gone on to win anything ( one raced in a 20K race the other in an 8K race ).

PENHALE - Neither horse from his 3rd on 21/11/2006 had gone on to win anything.

URBAN FORCE was a chance with the horse that ran 2nd to him going on to win a victory at 8K

SYDIBELLE - was also a chance with one horse behind him going on to win an $8K race.

The others in the race had no form from prior races to suggest they could win.

[Rhystan]

Wesmip, this sounds so logical. I would love to follow this up. Can you please advise me where I can get this information about each horse and whether they have run since please?

[wesmip1]

Rhystan,

You can use e x p e r t f o r m . c o m

Just look at the daily form and check a horses history in their horse search. Its a long tiresome process which I will automate in the next few weeks to see if it is worthwhile following.

Good Luck.

[Chrome Prince]

The idea certainly has merit and in fact works, as long as you consider that the class of opposition has to be around the class of the previous race and hopefully in a short space of time.

The only drawback is that it is EXTREMELY time consuming to follow unless you have it automated some way.

[wesmip1]

The only drawback is that it is EXTREMELY time consuming to follow unless you have it automated some way.


Im still trying to work out how I am going to automate this and what sort of cutoff to use on how far to go back.

[mickmcc]

The idea certainly has merit and in fact works, as long as you consider that the class of opposition has to be around the class of the previous race and hopefully in a short space of time.
Wow , I was just going to ask something about this.

I don't post too much but read quite a few of the ideas and do enjoy them. I watch videos a lot , and do get some nice priced winners , but find some of the selections also run hopeless and I was wondering whether class is the issue. I checked over a few and the ones down and the same , generally went OK , but the ones up , not as good. Was wondering whether anyone knew the winning strike rates of horses up in class , down in class or staying the same , from their previous start.
I though i'd seen it posted before , but can't remember who by and when

[odericko]

i think crash mentioned something like that about using prize money as a ratings guide and if i remember right dynamic form was given out as well ..i vaguely remember trying them and it was free but now is subscription??????could be something in this me thinks just look at todays racing good god what a motza there was to be had ...roll on tomorrow i will have a lash at this

[travelrock]

That's just a class method.

By doing weight ratings you can work out whether a horse has the class to win a race.

Very few people actually bother with class ratings, so they still work despite Don Scott's efforts.

But weight ratings shouldnt be used on their own. Some common sense form analysis and other factors used be incorporated to take a more balanced approach.

[crash]

I think some punters [especially new ones] get a bit too obsessed with race 'class'. Horses are often quickly on the way up, down or can seem all over the place as far as race class goes.

Class of race should not be confused with class of horse. A class horse can go from winning a maiden to winning a G1 in 3 or 4 runs.

As for class of race, I stick by the good old simple formula of prize money. If a horse can win a C1 of $12k, the same horse is in the right class for a $12k C6 at an inferior meeting. A punter would go crazy trying to line-up the class system across states otherwise.

[Dale]

This thread got me thinking,a couple of years ago i was playing around with a ratings idea mixing recent performance and average prizemoney,a few days after reading this thread it occured to me that the prizemoney raced for in recent starts is much more important and would suit the old idea i gave up on.

With winners like The Jackal $9.30,Ice Chariot $7.70 and Cefalu $42.50 amongst other nice bets that i had clearly in front like Baughurst, Instructed,Mollys Folly etc it seems to have potential.

The downers are that a good horse winning an easy race before the one im rating can catch me out,it also doesnt seem to work as good on some of these low class mid week races and the biggest pain is having to do it all manualy,its simple maths but takes forever to do a few meetings.

Thanks for the inspiration.

[wesmip1]

Dale,

if you want it automated I can see what I can do (drop me a line over email)... I can add it to the many other ratings/techniques I am trying to automate.

Good Luck.

[Dale]

Dale,

if you want it automated I can see what I can do (drop me a line over email)... I can add it to the many other ratings/techniques I am trying to automate.

Good Luck.


Hmmm now im even more interested in this,i'll tidy up a few things and get back to you soon.


As this thread was about form races,what about the formline out of the W J McKell Cup on june the 2nd won by Zavite.

[wesmip1]

Dale,

Since I heard you wanted to email me about this thread ... my email address is psmiffy79@aol.com

Good Luck.

[Dale]

Thanks Wes,i'll email you in the next couple of days.