Cox Plate

[Tony]

How are people thinking about the Cox Plate?
It looks like Fred is having big trouble keeping Northerly sound enough to contest and despite Sunline's win on the weekend I am not convinced that she can win it again. That race was put on for her the other day with the conditions
to suit and I am unconvinced about her.Universal Prince doesn't look a Cox Plate horse though maybe he is and then there are the 3 yos which I favour by exclusion of the above and by
merit of them being the best we have seen for a long time.
Which one I go for will probably be settled at Caulfield on Saturday. What do you reckon?

[Mr. Logic]

Northerly is fine. He had a good track gallop last Thursday over 1200 metres.
Personally I do not like to get too far ahead of things. I will look at the Cox Plate once the field and barrier draws are known. Unfortunately the race is no longer a decent betting event. When unknown quantities like the overseas horses are added the race loses attractiveness from a betting perspective as far as I am concerned.
It's tough enough backing winners with local exposed form without overseas horses being thrown into the equation as well.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Mr. Logic on 2001-10-09 20:09 ]</font>

[Tony]

I agree entirely about the OS horses, I wish they would stay right away from a punting perspective. However there have been a lot of them here now and a lot of them with big booms on them but only one has won anything. History is starting to tell us we are fairly safe to dismiss them.
I wouldn't be so sure about Northerly, how did he pull up after that gallop.
No doubt that earlier plunge on him in the Caulfield Cup was stable inspired, then he goes like a crab, albiet winning, to his great credit at Caulfield and then plans are all up in the air.

[Tony]

Make that two of them.

[Mr. Logic]

Northerly pulled up fine. It was an impressive workout.
Re overseas horses it seems the heat may affect them on racedays. Cool weather on Cox Plate Day makes the race even tougher. My feeling is I probably will not bet in the race. If all punters boycotted races with overseas horses they'd soon have better races to bet in - you can bet the overseas horses wouldn't be here.
I'm not desperate to bet in every race so I am quite happy ignoring races where everyone else has to "have a go".

[dizzle]

I think if Sunline is allowed to lead without much pressure the race is already over. If Primrose Sands or Viscount or others apply pressure than it might be Universal Prince. If Viscount tries to match it with Sunline in the lead they might have to put him down the next day because he'll have his ass out his mouth. Primrose Sands will also be coming of a Caulfield Cup run so you would think it would be hard pressed to back up and win a Cox Plate.

[Dailyimpact]

Hello everyone, thanks for admission to your forum. I am from Hamburg/Germany and have a natural interest in Silvano. Can someone tell me how a genuine 2.000 m horse can handle this course, particulary the stretch ? Thank you all for your kind assistance, which I shall pass on to Andreas Wöhler and Andreas Suborics without delay.

[Muybridge]

DailyImpact
Have you seen the description of the Mooney Valley track on this site?

http://www.propun.com.au/horseracing_track_mooneevalley.html

[Tony]

Dailyimpact, have a look at this link as a good guide to how the race has been recently run. Short straight as you will have found out but this race is definitely not a place for horses weak at the end of 2000.

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/indepth.asp?art=indepth19p1

What's the confidence in the Silvano camp like as we haven't got much of a clue how to rate these visitors.

[Firemansam13]

This is my first post. Dash for Cash is running in the Guinneas this satday and it is still nominated for the Cox Plate. If it runs well on Satday and still runs in the Cox Plate than that will be my tip at very good odds. Sunline will win if the other jockeys have brain explosions like last year.

No offense Fireman Sam, but I think its yourself with the brain explosion if you are tipping Dash For Cash to win the Cox Plate. He'll struggle to win the Guineas, let alone a Cox Plate.

For what its worth, my tip is Pure Theatre for the Guineas, he could be anything, should be suited by some pressure up front and has already proven himself at Caulfield.

[Mr. Logic]

Dash For Cash is a very good horse, but I doubt that he is a Cox Plate horse. However I still think he could surprise down here in a suitable race.

Although I find it hard to agree with firemansam on Dash for Cash he has been tipping at my site for the past month and some of the big value winners he has tipped it wouldn't surprise me if he is right again.

[Firemansam13]

I must apoligise for actually tipping Dash for Cash in the Cox Plate. I just think that if he runs well on Satday then he might be one to watch in the Cox Plate. He probably won't even run in it anyway. My tip for the Cox Plate is Sunline. I can't see her getting beaten. I am going to put a small wager on Dash for Cash this weekend in the Guineas.

[Dailyimpact]

Thank you for enlightening me on the track particulars. Seems to be quite tricky but I think it is a combination of a lucky draw and a skillful jockey. Well as to the chances of Silvano I have horses trained by Andreas Wöhler and I can assure you that he won`t start a horse that is not fit in every respect, the above aside. You may have noted Silvanos record this year and I think his got a fair chance if he can avoid trouble en route. Can someone indicate the odds as I feel that Silvano may be an attractive bet, given that some punters think they can avoid the oversea horses. Thanks and regards

[brisvegas]

silvano 10/1 at moment....i have no doubt you could get better....... brisvegas

[Mr. Logic]

One other thing to note about the Cox Plate is that it is a very tough 2040 metres. The final sprint is on often 600 metres or so from home.

[Tony]

Now things are really interesting, almost enough cards on the table to have an opinion, Mr Logic. You look like you were right about Northerly's health.
Sunline, Lonhro, Northerly, Universal Prince and the wildcard Silvano, some race.
My humble opinion is I don't think Sunline can win on a dry track and Northerly might be too good for Lonhro which would be saying something.
Looking forward to the race already and ruminating on the outcome in the meantime.

Hi, my pick was and still is Northerly. Now my current reasoning goes like this. He wins from just about anywhere in the running, including when forced out wide. Also continues to win when fitness is in question. Has beaten all serious challengers in recent weeks.

Now for those who I feel are the other challengers. Lonhro, big step up in distance and a long sustained race pace which will probably bring him to his knees 200 meters from home. like his Dad he will never give in, I think he will fight out 3rd place with Universal Prince.

Universal Prince will come home with a wet sail from way back, as so often happens the winner will be 2 strides ahead at the line. His only hope is to mix it with Sunline from the start and hope Northerly gets force so wide he has to go through the car park.

Sunline will race her normal flat out blast from the start, age has taken the sting out of her final kick for home, that is why she will be chasing Northerly home over the final 100 meters, unless Universal Princess can talk a couple of also rans into pulling off the car park ploy.

This leaves Shogun Lodge and Silvano in my humble opinion as wild cards amongst the top liners. In recent times Shogun Lodge has made a killing for his followers and he is constantly around the money at race end. Why not this time? The race is in Melbourne, not Sydney.

Silvano is the "Dark horse" but I feel the pace of this race will be quicker for longer than home and a fate similar to my prediction for Lonhro will hit 200 meters out.

I will place my money on Northerly, and cheer him to the line. Has there ever been a 3 way dead heat? The new King, reigning queen and the Prince?

Here's to a cracker of a race.
Good punting, Horse Cents