Bel Esprit

[Equine Investor]

"Top colt Bel Esprit may back up again over 1400m at Caulfield on Sunday despite his narrow defeat in the 1200m Manikato Stakes last Saturday.

Trainer John Symons says he will nominate Bel Esprit for the $3511,000 Group 1 Dubai Racing Club Cup and the Group 3 Guineas Prelude, worth $200,750.

He said Bel Esprit had pulled up well from Saturday and he will discuss the situation with owners before confirming a start in one of the event. His preference was for the Dubai Cup.

Symons said that he would recommend that Scott Seamer retained the mount despite criticism from some quarters that he “went too early” when beaten into second place in the Manikato. Symons said that Seamer, who was having his first race ride on Bel Esprit, may not have realised how fast the horse was travelling, and would learn from the experience."

That news comes from Ozeform.
I think John Symons is being unrealistic if he expects Bel Esprit to handle 1400m when the 1200m took such a toll. Yes Seamer may have gone a shade early in the race, but even Richard Freedman said Bel Esprit would be a bad bet at 1400m.

What does everyone else think ?

I just thought that the last 100 - 150m of the run the horse definitely had the staggers to the point of being a spent force. If I were the trainer I'd be looking for another 1200m or even shorter race, but maybe there is nothing that short available worth the prizemoney without sacrificing a huge weight handicap.

[osulldj]

Hi EI,

I tend to agree that Bel Esprit would struggle against the "very best" G1 horses at 1400m.

According to my pace & speed ratings his performance in the Manikato was 1 length below his previous two wins. In saying that it was a group 1 standard run in every sense of the word. After a dubious ride he was narrowly beaten by one of the best sprinters in the country and beat another one of the best home. The track was a little fast on the day but that taken into account they still ran great time.

In respect to his ability over 1200m I'm not concerned he wobbled over the last bit, he had used his available energy well before the last 100m and was entitled to weaken.
The reason he faded noticably was due to the fact that Seamer did go a bit early. His sectional between the 400 and 200m was apparently the fastest ever run at Mooney Valley. If Seamer holds him up a bit more and reels off that section from say the 300m to 100m he doesn't show any signs of weakening and probably wins. The critical point is that he still covered the 1200m is a speed very few horses are capable of.

In my eyes he is a top quality G1 horse even over 1200m.

However the pace in the Manikato was only average so he certainly wasn't used up in the first 600m....he had as much energy as he would have wished for in the final 600m of that race and used every ounce of it to run the race he did. That being the case it's hard to see him maintaining that performance over an extra 200m. He will certainly still be able to run well well above average, but I don't believe up to the top G1 level against older horses.

Alot will depend on which race he contests this week and how the field lines up. That aside he must be consider him some sort of risk this week over 1400m, especially after such a gut busting effort in the Manikato.

[Mark]

In my opinion it's another racing theory that doesn't hold. Over the years there have been many horses who lead over a certain distance and are beaten, but backup over a longer distance, lead and win, or often sit off the pace & finish over the top of them. I reckon he'd get a mile. Remember Mahogany?, and the distance may be the reason Dandy Kid was such a ridiculous price on Saturday.

[Equine Investor]

The other factor to consider is that the horse is backing up after a week and a hard run, trying to get the extra 200m - a very big ask.

[Equine Investor]

"Damien Oliver will ride Bel Esprit in Sunday’s Dubai Cup over 1400m at Caulfield.

The decisions on the jockey and the race were made after a conference between trainer John Symons and connections today. The other alternative race being considered was the Caulfield Guineas Prelude.

Oliver’s manager Bruce Clark said that Oliver was able to get a release from the Lee Freedman trained Chong Tong in the race to get the mount on the top colt, who will carry 53kg.

Chong Tong, with 56kg, will now be ridden by Patrick Payne.

Oliver replaced Scott Seamer who came under fire from some quarters for his ride on Bel Esprit when second in the Manikato Stakes last weekend."

Will be interesting to see the run of Chong Tong!
:wink:

[glenton]

This is a 1000m horse and a good bet at this distance. 1400m and its the toss of a coin, only bet if 5 to 1 and over.

[Equine Investor]

I agree to some extent glenton.

1000m to 1200m GREAT.
1300m OK.
1400m definite query.

Unfortunately I don't think that we'll get anywhere near 5/1. More like 3/1 maximum.
Will be content to watch a bolter salute and Bel Esprit maybe manage a place.

[Tennesse Blue]

one simple question you have over looked. why would he enter it in a race with an increase in distance if he didnt think it had a chance? why waste your time then. i think bel espirit will make a fool out of you in its next run.

[Equine Investor]

Tennessee,

1. I am NOT always right.

2. Prizemoney for 2nd 3rd and even 4th is still worth chasing.

3. Many trainers enter horses over extra distance hoping their horses will prove to be middle distance contenders, testing under tough competition is the only real guide as trackwork form rarely holds up over extra distances.

4. I am not saying Bel Esprit is no chance, I just think that the odds will be far too short for the true odds of coming in 1st...especially with Oliver now taking the ride AND looking at the classy opposition in this race.

I will be betting a "boil over" here!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-18 18:06 ]</font>

[Hammers]

Bel Esprit won't run 1400 downhill.

I think it is a case of inexperienced owners and trainers in a huff over the Manikato and looking to heal the wounds as quickly as possible.

If it were mine I'd freshen him up for the Moir Stakes on Cox Plate day then come back for the sprinters triple crown in the autumn without the handicapper having a chance to have too much of a go at him.

[seamerthechamp]

If Seamer can't get belspirt home and win
last week , do you think by putting Oliver
on board will make any differences? dont get
me wrong Oliver is a champion jockey so is
Seamer too. owner and trainer don't realise
a better horse will win on the day regardless
of if a horse is a champion , look at Sunline
she got beaten a few times by a better horse
on the day eg. Fairway. And Spinning hill is
no doubt a champion horse when you look at
the past performance in the past.
cheers!by the way 2 tips for tomorrow "feed
the meter" and "clangaclang"

[Mark]

Fairway....mmmm now there's a horse who couldn't run the 2000m of the Rosehill Guineas, unplaced as a short priced favourite so obviously no chance in the Derby. Anyone remember the result? He was around 14/1, juicy.

[Neil]

Undecided at the present whether Bel Esprit will get the 1400 metres. The colt will definitely need to settle. There is also usually a big difference between the tempo of 1200 metres and 1400 metres races.

Replacing Seamer is ridiculous - he is one of the best jockeys around. It's so typical of racing people talking through their pockets. If the horse doesn't win find anyone or anything to blame - the jockey or whatever.

If Seamer went too early and so cost Bel Esprit the race last week, and that is debateable, there's no guarantee anyway that Oliver will ride the perfect race on Sunday.

It's a pity, but there's not much loyalty left these days when it comes to many relationships between jockeys, trainers and owners.

I guess what goes around comes around.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2002-09-19 11:05 ]</font>

[Reenster]

Neil's right about the knee jerk reaction to dump Seamer.

Oliver is a champion jockey but he is also notorious for making the wrong choice when it comes to deciding on his mounts. It wasn't that long ago when it was often a safer option to back the horse Oliver didn't choose, his judgement was that bad.

In this race, he would have had the choice of Chong Tong(Flemington Straight specialist), Bush Padre(up in class, down in weight and in top form), the two runners he rode at their last start and Bel Esprit.

Oliver's skill in selecting mounts in the past has been nowhere near as good as his skill in riding them. It'll be interesting to see if he's improved.

[Neil]

I believe Oliver gets involved with the big decisions about choices of mounts. His manager, who gets Oliver his rides, has joined the Sport 927 tipping panel. I'd hardly be jumping on his tips.

PS - Seems to be another case of a clear conflict of interest. What Oliver rides does he tip or give the "slows" to?

Then again, if Ian Colllins can manage a stadium, be privy to contracts clubs have with the stadium including Carlton, run for President of Carlton Football Club and negotiate with himself as both Stadium manager and Carlton president (Carlton want to play less games at the Stadium due to high costs involved) anything is possible.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2002-09-19 11:53 ]</font>

[Hammers]

Mark,
Fairway had won the Champion Stakes over 2000m 6 months before failing in the Guineas so I don't think many people put his Guineas failure down to " couldn't get the trip ". If memory serves me the track was cutting up a bit and he was taken on in front.
Got his own way on a dynamite leaders track at Randwick in the AJC Derby and won the 2000m Turnbull as a 4YO.
Bel Esprit is an out and out sprinter in my view. The Show Day Cup winners that were 3YO's all went on to prove themselves over a bit more ground. If you don't think BE will get a good mile don't back him on Sunday.
Caulfield was a swoopers track last time around too so that plays against him a bit.

[Mark]

Nobody can be 100% sure until after the race. I wouldn't be surprised to see him race back & be one of the swoopers, or be 6 in front & give them no chance.
I just like to see favourites get beat, & the shorter the better.

[Hammers]

BE may well turn out to be your pin-up horse Mark. I can't believe all the hype about a horse that has won one Group One ( fell in ) and has been beaten in the other two he's contested.

[Equine Investor]

When I mentioned the jockey switch, I was in no way having a go at Seamer or even being enthusiastic about Oliver. I was merely pointing out that the mere engagement of Oliver will trim the odds half to one full point. Which will make Bel Esprit even worse value.

I am not saying that Bel Esprit isn't any chance - but whether the horse wins or not, such a distance query is not value at anything under 3/1.

My personal opinion is that the distance is beyond a win for Bel Esprit, but I have been wrong before. Look at my bet against Northerly!

However, what I am not wrong about is the value angle.
Northerly was not value first up at even money and Bel Esprit is not value at under 3/1 win, lose or draw; especially when you consider the records of the opposition who are proven at the distance and beyond.

Just my opinion.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-19 15:30 ]</font>

[Tennesse Blue]

i think Bel espirit will run a great race...and prove the people who doubt he will run out the distance....like equine invester was saying this is a quality field and the odds maybe a little skinny but if the general public believe he cant run out the distance i wouldnt mind snapping up some juicy odds....if Bel espirit isnt first pass the post watch for desert eagle to be running on! I look forward to the result!

[seamerthechamp]

May be there is conflict between jockeys
look at the latest on Munce and Gibbons.
I think Oliver might just want to proof
if Seamer can't get Belspirt home he certainly can himself because there is times
when Seamer beats him in the big races and
Ollie protest and lost eg. last year caulfield cup, and also the big Melbourne cup
which Seamer and Ethereal leaves Sky heights
and Ollie unseen after a nose between them
in the Caulfield cup.
cheers!

[glenton]

Bell will struggle today, more than likely NOT run a drum.

[Equine Investor]

Well it was indeed a gutsy performance by Bel Esprit, but it really was beyond it's best distance.

Beware Richard Freedman, firstly he say Bel Esprit won't get the distance, then today he tips the horse to win, and after the race says the distance was beyond him. So which is it Richard? What's the deal here?

Luckily I had a nice win on Pernod.

[Mark]

Hammers
No pinup horses here, but if he didn't run the 1400 then nor did 17 others. I still reckon he'll get a mile, but probably won't be much value.

[Hammers]

Bel Esprit.
4 starts in Group Ones for one win and started favourite everytime.
If he's another Manikato I'm another Tiger Woods.
Bookies love these hype horses.
Don't listen to the crap on Sky about this being a great Group One either. Only five GI winners in the field and most of them from a while ago - Chong Tong second top weight!!! -enough said.

[thekey]

Heard another interesting comment from Richard Freeman on Saturday.

re: Northerly

pre-race: he's not going as well as he was last year

post-race: on that effort he's me pick in the cox plate

That's a pretty quick change of mind.

I don't know about others but I don't like to form an opinion immediately after a race until you have a chance to assess the merits of the run minus the emotion of the moment.

See for an example every race caller when a horse decelerates less quickly than the others, to give the illusion that it is in fact accelerating over the lst 50 or 100m the caller invariably lables it a super run when in reality it was enititled to have more energy left because it used less at the start of the race.

One possible exception is when a horse is held up for a run then quickens through a gap, these a good but rare horses. see (Defier in the Theo Marks)

On another subject commpare this to Calaway Gal's effort on Sat. She had a huge gap to run through and wouldn't, forcing Beadman to switch around heels. Unless given an easy lead I can't see her winning again if she is timid in a field.

[Equine Investor]

Bruce Macavaney is even worse!

Whilst he is probably one of the best reeling statistics for any sport off the top of his head, as a judge he stinks!

His comments on the run of Republic Lass were obviously made by someone who knows nothing about racing.

And then he says re Sportsman's run "He had every chance and disappointed."

He must have been watching the footy scores when Sportsman got checked and blocked for a run at the 200m mark!
Sportsman is one of those horses that doesn't like crowding and winds up for a run. It is rare if that run is interferred with that he can regain momentum with 200m to go.