Mixed Martial Arts Plays.

[Bon]

Last week with UFC 72 I went 3/3 with Dustin Hazellett at -240, Marcus Davis at -370 and Forrest Griffin at -207 for a 37% ROI.

This week there is the TUF (The Ultimate Fighter) 5 finale on and there looks to be a couple of real solid bets on this card pending the release of the odds.

Not sure if there's any fellow fight handicappers here, but I'll share my picks to see if there's any interest.

My style predominantly looks for fights I consider locks... if my bankroll was made up of 100 units, then a heavy play for me would probably be around 5 units, a medium play 2.5 units and a small play 0.5-1 units.

Cheers
Bon

[suds]

should be interesting, look forward to your follow-up posts

[Bon]

Here's the first pick.

I don't think BJ will have any issues making weight, I've heard from a couple of different sources that are reliable that BJ is around 158-159, meaning he only has 3-4 lbs to go which should be easy.


<table border="0" bordercolor="blue" width="680"><tbody><tr class="accountHeader"><td align="left">Ticket</td><td align="left">Accepted</td><td align="left">Event</td><td align="left">Type</td><td align="left">Description</td><td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">Risking</td> <td align="center"><nobr>To Win</nobr></td></tr> <tr class="tableText" height="30"> <td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">104759166-1
1http://www28.pinnaclesports.com/images/ps_minus_sign.jpg</td> <td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">7:19pm
20-Jun-07</td> <td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">7:00pm
23-Jun-07</td> <td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">Future</td> <td class="accountText" align="left" valign="bottom">MMA Fight Odds - Ultimate Fighter Final- ...</td> <td class="accountText" align="right" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">-320</td> <td class="accountText" align="right" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">1,000.00</td> <td class="accountText" align="right" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">312.50</td> </tr> <tr id="pitcher0" class=""><td class="accountText" colspan="4">
</td><td colspan="4" class="accountText" align="left">Ultimate Fighter Final- The Pearl, Nevada
Lightweights
BJ Penn vs Jens Pulver
BJ Penn vs Jens Pulver</td></tr><tr width="100" bgcolor="black" height="1"><td colspan="8">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

[Bon]

The reason I like BJ in this fight... he's coming down from welterweight where he more than held his own with some of the best in the division - GSP, Matt Hughes - he's even beaten Matt Hughes, the most dominant champion in the ww division. He lost an arguably controversial decision to GSP. And he took Matt Hughes to school or 2 rounds the second time they fought until he broke his rib/gassed. BJ also has a victory over Pride lightweight champ Tankanori Gomi.

They are both different fights from when they last fought... Jens is on a decline, going 7- 5 in his last 12 fights.. and I think his chin is shot. BJ's a helluva lot better since then - especially his hands, they are probably better than Jens' hands now. And has fought the much tougher competition, with his only loss at LW coming from Pulver back in '02.

BJ by TKO in R1 is my prediction. Everything I've seen/read shows BJ is shape, focused & motivated.

[Bon]

Odds were released early this morning at about 4:30am... holly ********ing chalk, batman!

Most guys are -500 ($1.20) or worse, when they are B-level fighters at best. None have proven themselves reliable or consistent enough to lay that kind of chalk.

[WAOS]

yep, BJ made the weight [155.5 lbs] & looking good!

[Bon]

Yeah, I saw The Bad Blood video clip up on the website in the multimedia section and his face looked a lot thinner so I figured he would make weight.

Just the one play for me on this card now.

[watsonnek]

So Bon, is there steady money to be made playing mixed martial arts? this sport as a betting medium never even crossed my mind.

[Bon]

BJ by RNC in R2, ROI is 31%.... lucky I only made the one play as the other two plays I was considering - Gray Maynard had his bout declared a no contest and Manny dislocated his shoulder and lost by TKO...

watsonnek, definitely. If you pick your spots carefully enough. That's 4/4 for me in the last fortnight and $2k+ profits.

[Bon]

Link to BJ Vs Pulver - http://rapidshare.com/files/39007685/Jenz.Pulver.vs.Bj.Penn.avi

Robert Emerson Vs Gray Maynard - http://rapidshare.com/files/39000442/Gray.Maynard.vs.Robert.Emerson.avi

Diaz Vs Manny - http://rapidshare.com/files/39005531/Nathan.Diaz.vs.Manvel.Gamburyan.avi

[watsonnek]

Cheers Bon :)

[Bon]

There's one fight I really like on the card this weekend..... Sean Sherk/Hermes Franca - I love Sherk in this fight and this is my play of the night.

Interview with Sherk - http://www.sherdog.com/news/radio.asp?id=236 , about 47mins in. He talks about rehabbing his shoulder that was injured going into his last fight, his training, his motivation, etc. I'm confident he's in shape & ready to go with a 100% healthy shoulder.

He's a bad matchup for Franca, he'll take him down at will and g&p for a stoppage/decision. Hermes has a puncher's chance in this fight 'cause he has heavy hands, but highly unlikely IMO.

I've already layed on Sherk pretty heavy, I might grab some more later.

<table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="99%"><tbody><tr class="rowheadings"><td>Date</td> <td>
</td> <td>ID</td> <td>
</td> <td>Details</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">Stake</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">Odds</td> <td>
</td> <td>Status</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">Payout</td> <td>
</td> <td align="right">Net Result</td> </tr> <tr class=""> <td nowrap="nowrap">02-07-2007 05:01</td> <td> </td> <td nowrap="nowrap">6744219</td> <td> </td> <td> Single - Ultimate Fighting - UFC 73
Hermes Franca v Sean Sherk - UFC Lightweight Title - Sean Sherk - $500 Win - Head To Head (Pending)</td> <td> </td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">$500.00</td> <td> </td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">1.45</td> <td> </td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Pending</td> <td> </td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">$0.00</td> <td> </td> <td align="right" nowrap="nowrap">$-500.00</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="fTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="aCell">Ticket # 27876388</td><td class="bCell"> Placed: ONLINE-1 on: 05/27/2007 @ 10:24 PM </td><td class="cCell">STRAIGHT BET</td><td class="dCell">Risking: 675.00</td><td class="eCell">To Win: 300.00</td></tr></tbody></table><table class="sTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="fCell">07/07/2007 @ 07:00 PM </td><td class="sCell">[31984] Sean Sherk -225 - MU</td></tr></tbody></table>

[Bon]

As for the rest of the card:

Silva/Marquardt... no opinion on the bout at this stage, I won't be playing it. I can say Marquardt is a threat to Silva stylistically as he should be able to take him down, but does he have the cardio to go 5 rounds?

Nog/Herring... this is a no brainer, Nog has subbed him twice in 2 fights. Nog is better than Herring in all areas - boxing, wrestling & submissions. The only question is what will the lines open at?

Tito Ortiz/Rashad Evans. I think this fight could go either way. I lean towards Tito as I think he has better hands and his style of wrestling utilising upper body takedowns will see Rashad on his back in the first round (saw Rashad taken down by a smaller 185lber in his last fight)... but, I believe Tito has a tendency to over-train or his cardio is not that good. I see round one being all Tito, but how round 2 & 3 end if Tito does not get the stoppage in round 1 I'm unsure of - Rashad has good cardio, solid wrestling skills which combined with explosive power & good cardio give him a chance to put Tito on his back and work some g&p of his own in the later stages of the fight. No play on this fight most likely.

Kenny Florian/Alvin Robinson... I have not seen tape of Robinson, but his record points to him being a ground guy, which Florian is also.. but, he has ever improving stand up & wrestling skills. I cannot really comment on this fight, but suffice to say the UFC want Florian to win and Robinson may have been brought in to help Florian showcase his new standup skills.

Frankie Edgar/Mark Bocek... I have seen no tape of Bocek, but the likely scenario is that Edgar puts Bocek on his back and pounds him out for a stoppage or a decision win - Edgar is a very accomplished wrestler with decent boxing & ground skills.

Chris Lytle/Jason Gilliam... short notice fight for Gilliam, who steps in to replace an injured Drew Fickett. Lytle should take this one by sub, but I've seen too little tape of Gilliam to say that with a great deal of confidence.

Jorge Gurgel/Diego Saraiva. Two BJJ black belts who started training around the same time in the same town. Gurgel is the much more well rounded fighter of the two, plus comes from a better training camp which includes a team mate who beat Saraiva by UD last time he fought. I like Gurgel pending weigh in photos, etc. and odds - we'll see if it's not too chalky to make a play.

Stephan Bonnar/ Mike Nickels... this bout is all Bonnar. Better in every aspect of the game, I give Nickels very little chance here. We'll have to wait and see the opening numbers.

[Bon]

UFC ALL ACCESS on Sean Sherk - http://www.mediafire.com/?8gfzaoxwtod

^ That training regimen is unbelievable... I don't think I know anyone who could complete what he does and still be standing at the end, he is an animal.

Then you have Hermes saying he doesn't run:

Hermes Franca: My cardio is just because I never run. People ask me — they get so surprised. I can’t run five miles. If I run one mile, I need two days’ rest (laughs). What I like to do is just fight and train. And against Spencer Fisher, it was a lot of pressure. We knew the winner could fight for the title. It was in my state of Florida. It was a lot of pressure. And the fight was good. First round was a lot of action. Second round, a lot of action. In the end of the second round, I gas a little bit because it was action — I didn’t stop, I didn’t stop, I didn’t stop in the fight. I trained hard, I prepared myself for three rounds so well. I could have definitely fought one more round there. But it’s hard for a fighter to step in to the cage against a guy like Spencer Fisher there and not gas.

Link to interview with Hermes - http://ufcjunkie.com/2007/07/01/ufcjunkiecom-exclusive-an-interview-with-hermes-franca/

World class athlete Vs a guy who can't run a mile... it should be all one way traffic after rd 1, it's a 5 rd fight.

[Bon]

Managed to get some odds better than I expected.

I think Nog should be -800/-1000 as I see no way he can possibly lose this fight. He's better than Herring in all areas and they have both gone in opposite directions to when they last fought - Herring has gone downhill and is a shell of his former self, while Nog is 10x the fighter he was.

The guy fighting Bonnar has NO place in the UFC... his training is sitting around smoking pot and doing new tats with his mates. Fighting is something he does on the side while Bonnar has recently moved to Las Vegas and is now training full time at Randy Couture's gym.

Gurgel should take this bout as he's much more well rounded than his opponent, but I can only justify a small play on this one as he's kinda unreliable at times and not someone I trust with a heavy play.

<table border="0" bordercolor="blue" width="680"><tbody><tr class="tableText" height="30"><td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top">105268216-1
1http://www36.pinnaclesports.com/images/ps_minus_sign.jpg</td> <td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">11:00am
4-Jul-07</td> <td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">4:45pm
7-Jul-07</td> <td class="accountText" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">Future</td> <td class="accountText" align="left" valign="bottom">MMA Fight Odds - UFC 73 - ARCO Arena,Sacr...</td> <td class="accountText" align="right" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">-233</td> <td class="accountText" align="right" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">233.00</td> <td class="accountText" align="right" nowrap="nowrap" valign="bottom">100.00</td> </tr> <tr id="pitcher0" class=""><td class="accountText" colspan="4">
</td><td colspan="4" class="accountText" align="left">UFC 73 - ARCO Arena,Sacramento, Calif.
Lightweights
Jorge Gurgel vs Diego Saraiva
Jorge Gurgel vs Diego Saraiva</td></tr></tbody></table>

<table class="fTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="aCell">Ticket # 28780667</td><td class="bCell"> Placed: ONLINE-1 on: 07/04/2007 @ 10:46 AM </td><td class="cCell">STRAIGHT BET</td><td class="dCell">Risking: 1250.00</td><td class="eCell">To Win: 200.00</td></tr></tbody></table><table class="sTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="fCell">07/07/2007 @ 07:00 PM </td><td class="sCell">[818] Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -625 - MU</td></tr></tbody></table><table class="fTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="aCell">Ticket # 28780668</td><td class="bCell"> Placed: ONLINE-1 on: 07/04/2007 @ 10:46 AM </td><td class="cCell">STRAIGHT BET</td><td class="dCell">Risking: 900.00</td><td class="eCell">To Win: 200.00</td></tr></tbody></table><table class="sTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="fCell">07/07/2007 @ 05:45 PM </td><td class="sCell">[31912] Stephan Bonnar -450 - MU</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="fTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="aCell">Ticket # 28780758</td><td class="bCell"> Placed: ONLINE-1 on: 07/04/2007 @ 10:48 AM </td><td class="cCell">STRAIGHT BET</td><td class="dCell">Risking: 225.00</td><td class="eCell">To Win: 50.00</td></tr></tbody></table><table class="sTable" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td class="fCell">07/07/2007 @ 05:45 PM </td><td class="sCell">[31912] Stephan Bonnar -450 - MU</td></tr></tbody></table>

[suds]

Herring doesn't have a killer instinct but shouldn’t be underestimated. Having said that Nog to tap him out 2nd round.

[Bon]

Have you seen his last two fights? He is nowhere the same fighter he is when he was back in Pride. I actually bet him in his UFC debut, at long odds too, -435 or someting, and he lost a unamious decision. I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as he claimed he had a torn MCL or something. But, after watching his second fight against Brad Immes, he has simply gone off the rails and I think the fight only goes past the first round if Nog lets it.

[Sportz Power]

Nogueira (Sub 1st Round)
Bonnar (TKO 2nd Round)
Florian (Decision)
most open - Evans Vs Ortiz

[Sportz Power]

Nog has already beaten Herring twice, in 2001 was a good showing from Herring, but Herring was at his peak then. The 2nd fight in 2004 was all big Nog.

[Bon]

Herring doesn't have a killer instinct but shouldn’t be underestimated. Having said that Nog to tap him out 2nd round.Looks like you were right, Herring rocked Nog big time in R1 with a lucky head kick.. couldn't finish him off though and Nog came back to win the next 2 rounds and get a unamious decision of 29-28 on all cards for the win.

Sherk won 50-45, 50-45, 49-46.

Gurgel won a unamious decision of 30-27 across all cards.

Bonnar won by RNC (Rear Naked Choke) in R1.


4/4, ROI for the event was 28%.

I actually took a couple of bad numbers too which I don't usually do... pinny had Bonnar as low as -392 and he hovered around ~-400 for some time, but I bet the opner of -450 at cris thinking it was too low - which I still think it was IMO. The money poured in on Herring at pinny as well, opening at around -750 he went all the way down to -550. In fact, most the money came in on the dogs (and the faves when 8-0-1 for the night ironically). I'm guessing since this is the year of upsets, people are still chasing those dogs as a few lines moved 100c or more. So the ROI could have been better than 28%, but it's still pretty good.

[watsonnek]

Hi Bon. All quiet on the MMA front?

[Bon]

watsonnek, there are actually a few events on this weekend. Cage Rage, Bodog, and K1... I just cannot see anything worth playing.

I think if you bet this weekend, you're asking to lose money. If forced to make a bet, I'd probably bet Dong Sik Yoon.. it's the only one that perks my interest.

As it is, I've hit 8 out of my last 8 heavy plays and I see a lot of good fights coming up to bet, including one heavy play at close to even money so I'm content to sit back and wait.

[Bon]

Ok, I have played ALEXANDRE FRANCA NOGUEIRA at -375 heavy.

[Bon]

Nog:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8607827605673607069&q=alexandre+nogueira&total=25&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8607827605673607069&q=alexandre+nogueira&total=25&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

His opponent:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8607827605673607069&q=alexandre+nogueira&total=25&start=0&num=10&so=0&type=search&plindex=0

[Bon]

Got up with the win, Nog got a KO in RD2 for a 27% ROI. I have to give credit to a buddy of mine who put me onto that play though.

As it stands, I have currently hit 9 out of my 9 last heavy plays at a 32.93% ROI overall...

Some of the odds on the upcoming fights have me very exicted... there looks to be a few close to EV money plays and possibly a couple of + numbers in there. I have been laying a lot of heavy chalk lately, but there looks to be some GREAT odds coming up which should really bump the ROI up.

[sportzfan]

nice work Bon

[sportzfan]

Hi Bon & others.
Some weeks off yet but better chances appear to be Roger Huerta, Renato Sobral & Joe Stevenson.

[sportzfan]

To be followed by UFC® 75 CHAMPION VS CHAMPION

Quinton Jackson Vs. Dan Henderson
Matt Hamill Vs. Michael Bisping

[Bon]

hey sportzfan,

I am not keen on the idea of playing Babalu at all... did you see his last fight against Jason Lambert? He went for this stupid knee without setting it up, got clocked a big right hand and was lucky to make it out of the round... he then threw the stupid knee which almost got him KOed another 2 times in the second round and finally got what was coming to him - getting KOed. Babalu was like a -400/450 favourite in that fight, too.

I imagine he'll be the fave against Heath, but after that performance in his last fight I could just not bet on the guy as he has proved he is not an A class fighter like I thought he was. Plus, Heath has some heavy hands. If Babalu were to open as a +200 ******, I'd give it some thought, but it's likely to be Babalu -300ish.


The odds on Huerta are probably likely to be some real heavy chalk... I don't see his opponent as a walk over, I think he poses some threat so will most likely pass on that one, as when you are laying that kind of chalk you want it to be a mortal lock.

Stevenson, I agree with you on... I am looking at potentially playing this fight.

[goldenember]

Where do you bet on this kind of stuff (from Oz)?

[Bon]

sportsbet.com.au and sportingbet.com.au carry some of the MMA bouts, but I use betcris.com and pinnaclesports.com for 95% of my MMA wagers.

[sportzfan]

hey sportzfan,

I am not keen on the idea of playing Babalu at all... did you see his last fight against Jason Lambert? He went for this stupid knee without setting it up, got clocked a big right hand and was lucky to make it out of the round... he then threw the stupid knee which almost got him KOed another 2 times in the second round and finally got what was coming to him - getting KOed. Babalu was like a -400/450 favourite in that fight, too.

I imagine he'll be the fave against Heath, but after that performance in his last fight I could just not bet on the guy as he has proved he is not an A class fighter like I thought he was. Plus, Heath has some heavy hands. If Babalu were to open as a +200 ******, I'd give it some thought, but it's likely to be Babalu -300ish.


The odds on Huerta are probably likely to be some real heavy chalk... I don't see his opponent as a walk over, I think he poses some threat so will most likely pass on that one, as when you are laying that kind of chalk you want it to be a mortal lock.

Stevenson, I agree with you on... I am looking at potentially playing this fight.


early thoughts UFC® 75 CHAMPION VS CHAMPION?

[sportzfan]

hey sportzfan,

I am not keen on the idea of playing Babalu at all... did you see his last fight against Jason Lambert? He went for this stupid knee without setting it up, got clocked a big right hand and was lucky to make it out of the round... he then threw the stupid knee which almost got him KOed another 2 times in the second round and finally got what was coming to him - getting KOed. Babalu was like a -400/450 favourite in that fight, too.

I imagine he'll be the fave against Heath, but after that performance in his last fight I could just not bet on the guy as he has proved he is not an A class fighter like I thought he was. Plus, Heath has some heavy hands. If Babalu were to open as a +200 ******, I'd give it some thought, but it's likely to be Babalu -300ish.


The odds on Huerta are probably likely to be some real heavy chalk... I don't see his opponent as a walk over, I think he poses some threat so will most likely pass on that one, as when you are laying that kind of chalk you want it to be a mortal lock.

Stevenson, I agree with you on... I am looking at potentially playing this fight.


Cheers Bon. Have decided to give the Renato Sobral Vs. David Heath match a miss. Still fancy El Matador & Daddy. Any thoughts Randy Couture Vs. Gabriel Gonzaga & Frank Mir Vs. Antoni Hardonk?? I'm leaning towards The Natural & the more experienced Mir for his match.

[sportzfan]

Looks like Bon's on leave, anyone else follow this stuff?

[watsonnek]

Punt on the boxing sometimes.

[Bon]

early thoughts UFC® 75 CHAMPION VS CHAMPION?I tend to lean towards Rampage, but another buddy of mine who is a lot sharper than me sees it 55-45% in favour of Rampage - I don't see it that close as I was actually considering Rampage for a play.

It's kinda too hard to predict this far out now anyway, I like as much info. on their training camp and preperation as possible, how focused & confident they sound/look, as well as weigh in photos too.

[Bon]

Any thoughts Randy Couture Vs. Gabriel Gonzaga & Frank Mir Vs. Antoni Hardonk?? I'm leaning towards The Natural & the more experienced Mir for his match.Yes, I am very much looking at a play on the Couture/Gonzaga fight... I will say if/when I make a play - it'll likely be after weigh in photos unless I get a good feel for the fight beforehand and make a play to try and take advantage of a number.

Mir is not a guy I can bet on based on the way he's showed up for his fights after his motorbike accident - he's shown up fat, out of shape & unmotivated... I'm surprised he's been asked back to the UFC.

He also has a screwed up leg/knee from the accident which limits his wrestling ability - a big concern for a guy who's strength is his ground game (or if he was a striker for that matter too)... if you watch the Mir/PDP fight, you see PDP take advantage of his bad knee (forget which one) by shooting for a single on the other leg which made Mir put all his weight on his bad knee to stay upright, so PDP was easily able to take him down as Mir's knee/leg couldn't handle it.

[Bon]

Looks like Bon's on leave, anyone else follow this stuff?Yeah, I was looking at the WEC this weekend.... I was looking at Larson/Condit and Filho/Doerkson. The first fight I have decided to clear steer of because I do not like to bet against guys who are unorthodox (Condit), it makes them and the fight extremely hard to predict (throw Machida into that boat as well).

I saw Filho when he opened -550, he is now still -600 and while he should kill Doerkson, I'm not sold he will submit Doerkson in the first or second round which is what you want when you're going to lay that kind of chalk. It's a 5RD fight so it gives Joe more chances to land a lucky knee or something like that.

I know it has been a while but there has honestly been nothing to play (the only thing I've played is Tara LaRossa -330, Eddie Alvarez -900 and Andre Berto -900 in various parlays which have up to another 8 legs legs to go) - nothing I'm confident enough to risk my cash on... In the previous 2 months, I have hit 9 out of my last 9 heavy plays at a ~33% ROI which is incredible.

I don't want to risk those profits so I can afford to be patient and pick my plays real careful. It is quiet now up until the next UFC on August 24 or whatever. But, as I said before I see some GREAT plays coming up at good odds too, including a couple of possible + numbers.

I am going overseas a week tomorrow for 10 days, so I will only be back a couple of days before UFC and might have to work fri & sat night.. but, I will post my plays up here as soon I make them - plenty of time before the event starts too so don't worry, I feel confident of a few heavy plays coming up at great odds.

There might be a boxing play next weekend...

If you want to discuss the Couture/Gonzaga bout more in-depth, email me at academia.999investment@gmail.com (academia.investment@gmail.com) - remove 9s

[Bon]

I made a small-medium boxing play today taking Ponce De Leon (won by KO in R1) at -169 & -175, but didn't quite feel that it was worthy enough of being a lock that I post it up here incase someone else decided to bet it. I thought it may have been a case of me getting itchy trigger finger having not made a play for a while.


I'm off overseas tomorrow for 10 days... back just in time for the UFC, my breif overview is as follows:

Coture/Gonzaga, too hard to call at this stage as info. on training camps, etc. are needed. This is a fight you decide after weigh ins IMO... Well, not really... I know who I like, I am pretty much just waiting for confirmation he has a good camp and then number shopping after weigh ins.

GSP/Koscheck, I have been musing over this one for a while. I have been going back & forth on this fight. I got a solid feeling for GSP and thought he would dominate the wrestling: Koscheck only has a double leg (but the BEST in the 170lb division at that) and doesn't set it up. GSP is also bigger & stronger, while also being explosive as well. Then I think about GSP's kicks he likes to do, ideally Kos should have a field day and take GSP down at will if he comes out with those cute kicks. I also don't feel 100% certain GSP will dominate the stand up... I cannot justify -200 on GSP, so I'm going to pass on this fight altogether, even in a parlay I was planning on with small money.

Stevenson/Pellegrino, up to date info. on training camps, weigh in photos, etc. would be good for this one too. I like Stevenson here, but I can't say he is a play that's going to get my money. I believe Stevenson is the better wrestler (Randy Cotoure Vs Hermes Franca). I also got a feeling a while ago that Stevenson's submission grappling was on another level to Pellegrino's, but I can't remember why/how right at this moment. I mght include this one in a parlay.

Grove/Cote - I like Grove here in this fight, reach advantage, better wrestling and he has impressed me with how much he improves in each fight.... probably include this one in a parlay.

Huerta/Crane - -500 is too much chalk to lay on Huerta as I don't think this guy is a complete walk over. I will pass on this one altogether.

Aurelio/Guida - WOW! What a fight this is.... I give the edge in wrestling & striking to Guida, but Aurelio is no slouch wrestling wise and he definitely has the edge on the ground here. Not sure about this fight yet, some critical info. on training camps, etc. could pull the trigger either way.

Sobral/Heath - pass. I can't ever bet Babalu at chalk again after his performance against Lambert. Heath is not the kind of guy I want to put my money on either.

Hardonk/Mir - see post below.

Leites/Jenson - WHO?

I am hopeful that there will be a play or two on the UFC. Mainly looking at the Gonzaga/Coture, Grove/Cote and Guida/Aurelio fights.

[sportzfan]

......
I'm off overseas tomorrow for 10 days...


Great input Bon, thanks. Have a safe trip!

[Bon]

I was originally really big on Gonzaga over Randy, but now I'm not so sure at all. Gonzaga came in heavier than his last fight which makes no sense at all for a 5RD fight. Randy's had an awesome camp and really seems like he has something to prove. I still can't get against Gonzaga because he has some explosive KO power and he is a beast on the ground... a 185lb Jacare gave Randy all sorts of fits in a sub grappling match, I think Gonzaga should be able to sweep/submit him rather easily. I'm passing on this fight altogether and most of the fights on the card actually.

This card isn't as promising as I originally thought, some of these fights are real close or they've come in over weight like Gonzaga...

One play for me at the moment, Kendall Grove over Patrick Cote.

[Bon]

I was originally planning to play Gonzaga heavy, but that went out the window after the weigh ins - weighing in heavier for a 5RD fight does not make any sense at all.

However, a 185lb Jacare gave Randy all sorts of fits in a sub grappling super fight. Word is that Gonzaga has been known for his guard since he was a blue belt in Brazil, so his jiu jitsu should be on another level that he is easily able to sweep and/or scramble to get on top of Randy where he'll pound him out for the stoppage or set up the submission. Randy is still very much vulnerable to leg attacks which is what allowed Barnett to scramble and get on top of him back at UFC 36. I believe that if Jacare was bigger & stronger, he would have been easily able to get on top of Randy from his leg attacks which is what I see Gonzaga doing.

Gonzaga also has some seriously heavy hands (and kicks) which can end the fight at any time.

I expect Gonzaga to come out and throw bombs to encourage Randy to take him down, where he will happily give up the takedown in the centre of the cage, opposed to up against the fence where Randy can use the cage to help him stack up against Gonzaga while he works his g&p. Once on the mat, Gonzaga will reverse Randy and stop him pretty quickly via g&p or submission.

Gonzaga needs to do this in the first or second round. If he doesn't, then I like Randy's chances more & more as the fight goes on withstanding a lucky punch that happens to find the mark.

You could probably make a good case for either guy, but I think Gonzaga will pull it off as his grappling skills are world class, arguably better than Nog's, albeit unproven in MMA.

[Bon]

I give Cote a puncher's chance (he has heavy hands), there is a very good possibility he will flick Kendall's switch if he hits his chin. However, I'm pretty confident Kendall will utilise his range and/or take Cote down in this fight so the chances of that happening are pretty slim IMO.

[Bon]

Add Leites and Huerta for medium plays.

[sportzfan]

Hi Bon & others.
Some weeks off yet but better chances appear to be Roger Huerta, Renato Sobral & Joe Stevenson.

Roger Huerta won by Technical Knock Out at 1:50 in the 3rd round
Renato Sobral won by Submission at 3:30 in the 2nd round by anaconda choke
Joe Stevenson won by Unanimous Decision at 5:00 in the 3rd round

[Bon]

Congrats.

Grove got KTFO.... it was a bad play.

[sportzfan]

........ Any thoughts Randy Couture Vs. Gabriel Gonzaga & Frank Mir Vs. Antoni Hardonk?? I'm leaning towards The Natural & the more experienced Mir for his match.

Randy Couture (The Natural) won by Technical Knock Out at 1:37 in the 3rd round .

Frank Mir won by Submission at 1:17 in the 1st round by kimura.

[Sporty]

nice going sportzfan!

[sportzfan]

I tend to lean towards Rampage, but another buddy of mine who is a lot sharper than me sees it 55-45% in favour of Rampage - I don't see it that close as I was actually considering Rampage for a play.

It's kinda too hard to predict this far out now anyway, I like as much info. on their training camp and preperation as possible, how focused & confident they sound/look, as well as weigh in photos too.

Yeah 55-45% in favour of Rampage is about my view as well. A matchup of the top two light heavyweights on the planet imo. Slight lean Jackson, no-nonsense training sessions & still fresh in my mind his two victories over Chuck Liddell.

[westman]

So when is this bout on?

[suds]

history now ;)

[Chiquita]

So, who won?

[Bon]

Rampage won a decision.

I have had limited internet access since moving interstate, but I have had an incredible couple of weeks.

Lost a small play on Tonya against Gina, but I have hit heavy plays on Melvin Manheouf (-220), Kenny Florian (-156), Gray Maynard (-300), Tyson Griffin (-156) & Jon Fitch (121).

I like Jermain Taylor this weekend to beat Kelly Pavlik.

[westman]

How did Jermain Taylor go, Bon?

[Bon]

JT got KTFO in R7 :(

I thought Taylor had Pavlik in R2... but Kelly got an 8 count and recovered well.

Pacman at -300 was a no brainer though, I went to about 2x on that play as -300 was a steal. I thought it would be a KO for sure though and almost played that prop, but luckily I didn't because he ended up winning a UD.


and Rampage won a UD after 5 RDs for, Chiquita.