Raw Instinct
30th June 2007, 07:03 AM
The wet track is making this a ridiculosly hard days betting will certainly be happy to come out of this week with a profit at all.
Race 1: Nellie got There will certainly like the heavy track just a mater of whether it can handle the track 1st up in it's prep I am thinking it won't run if it isn't ready for it, Kalinga County doesn't really strike you as a winning chance but the heavy track gives this bloke a chance Tony Pattillo won't hurt him either, Nepro is hard to leave out got home well last start behind Lesmartre in the Waterhouse race but I have a feeling this one will have a fair few admirers today making her shorter than I would like to entertain for any of this lot. Nellie Got There is the horse to back here but I would want to see something above $6 before I got to excited about it, after that I have a feeling Kalinga County is a bit of a hope not sure what odds to expect there but anything over $10 might be worth a bit e/w
Race 2: Nobby's Beach doesn't look to bad here has been racing consistently and fitness shouldn't be a worry either and with Byrne on board this should be there at the finish, Craiglea Charm is another I don't mind here got stuck in a wicked speed battle upfront last start I just feel he has a chance in this if it handles the track which alot of the Waterford Roads do. I like Nobby's Beach but once again nothing below the $7 mark if lower then I could entertain a little bet on Craiglea Charm over the $10 mark if not I will leave this one alone
Race 3: Only horse I like in this race is Clang Edition the track conditions shouldn't worry this guy just a matter of whether he is fit enough for this right now or needs another run Byrne on board doesn't hurt his chances here. I would like to see something over $10 before really wanting to have a go here
Race 4: Just to tip a horse here I thought Cash In A Hurry might be a bit of a chance but I amnot really interested in this race. No Bet Race
Race 5: The wet track could through any type of result in this race Showify is the only one of the top elects to have won on the heavy but his dead and slow track form make it a bit harder to assess but he has won on this track in the heavy which probably makes him the pick of the favs, I am a bit uncertain what to look at out of the rougher horses I think Scoot is a chance he will go to the lead and if this track is real heavy he just might be tough to run down Pengelly is a major plus, Winmara is not in the race well at the weights drawing a line to Showify through Jacaranda Leader but it did run into trouble in that race it is by Marwina which to me says it will have no trouble with the heavy track. looking for odds here Scoot probably the one I like best but I'll have a shot at both it and Winmara if they are both over double figures whichI'll be shocked if they are not
Race 6: My god this is a tough race the track makes it harder as there is very little exposed wet form amoungst the field, I like Vocalic it has no wet track form but it is by Easy Rocking making it usually a horse that will handle the the wet track the Semipalatinsk side on the dam2s side does worry me a little as some do handle it and others don't, I love little Hard to Catch and his run in the Stradbroke on the slow gives him a chance here it is just a matter of whether the weight in the track hurts it, Ten To Countdown handles the wet and in front could prove tough to run down it did get every chance last week but I do think Roman Squire is going to be a real nice horse giving him and Hard to Catch a good chance in this, Reverenza is another I like but Pannell being engadged doesn't excite me. I like Vocalic and will have a go at it as the odds should be solid aswell, I amnot sure after that as I could get talked into any of the others I mentioned out of Hard To Catch, Ten to Countdown & Reverenza just depending on the odds
Race 7: Another tough race here the heavy track makes me worried that Pentathon might not handle it with the weight he has hard to say but he has never won on the heavy before and this is a track which if wet really is sloppy, Sculptor handles the wet but his last run was average maybe he was a bit flat from the week before might be willing to give him another go but not at short odds, Rampant Lion does handle the wet and will be in the front part of the field I imagine I do have doubts that he will run the trip right out but he probably gets his chance here, After that I like Sir Sensible is interesting he just might handle the track and his last run was very nice, another thing to keep in mind is the last time Brave Lancer raced on a wet track he won i believe might improve out of sight at odds. I have no intentions of backing everything I mentioned was more just mentioning the ones I didn't mind in the race Sir Sensible is one I want to have something e/w on after tht I want double figures before jumping on to much else might entertain Sculptor at $6 or higher to.
Race 8: Silent Song could improve here today can sort of handle the wet will be odds and didn't get alot of luck last start, Belles Opinion was good last start find it funny that alot hae bagged this it was only 2nd up in the race and could have more improvement yet and has won on the heavy before, Stylized loves the wet I feel it could shorten up if this track proves to be really wet. Like Silent Song as an e/w prospect here to finish the day
The ones I like for the day are
Vocalic, Silent Song & Sir Sensible as they all should be e/w odds looking for value today
Good Luck today guys
Race 1: Nellie got There will certainly like the heavy track just a mater of whether it can handle the track 1st up in it's prep I am thinking it won't run if it isn't ready for it, Kalinga County doesn't really strike you as a winning chance but the heavy track gives this bloke a chance Tony Pattillo won't hurt him either, Nepro is hard to leave out got home well last start behind Lesmartre in the Waterhouse race but I have a feeling this one will have a fair few admirers today making her shorter than I would like to entertain for any of this lot. Nellie Got There is the horse to back here but I would want to see something above $6 before I got to excited about it, after that I have a feeling Kalinga County is a bit of a hope not sure what odds to expect there but anything over $10 might be worth a bit e/w
Race 2: Nobby's Beach doesn't look to bad here has been racing consistently and fitness shouldn't be a worry either and with Byrne on board this should be there at the finish, Craiglea Charm is another I don't mind here got stuck in a wicked speed battle upfront last start I just feel he has a chance in this if it handles the track which alot of the Waterford Roads do. I like Nobby's Beach but once again nothing below the $7 mark if lower then I could entertain a little bet on Craiglea Charm over the $10 mark if not I will leave this one alone
Race 3: Only horse I like in this race is Clang Edition the track conditions shouldn't worry this guy just a matter of whether he is fit enough for this right now or needs another run Byrne on board doesn't hurt his chances here. I would like to see something over $10 before really wanting to have a go here
Race 4: Just to tip a horse here I thought Cash In A Hurry might be a bit of a chance but I amnot really interested in this race. No Bet Race
Race 5: The wet track could through any type of result in this race Showify is the only one of the top elects to have won on the heavy but his dead and slow track form make it a bit harder to assess but he has won on this track in the heavy which probably makes him the pick of the favs, I am a bit uncertain what to look at out of the rougher horses I think Scoot is a chance he will go to the lead and if this track is real heavy he just might be tough to run down Pengelly is a major plus, Winmara is not in the race well at the weights drawing a line to Showify through Jacaranda Leader but it did run into trouble in that race it is by Marwina which to me says it will have no trouble with the heavy track. looking for odds here Scoot probably the one I like best but I'll have a shot at both it and Winmara if they are both over double figures whichI'll be shocked if they are not
Race 6: My god this is a tough race the track makes it harder as there is very little exposed wet form amoungst the field, I like Vocalic it has no wet track form but it is by Easy Rocking making it usually a horse that will handle the the wet track the Semipalatinsk side on the dam2s side does worry me a little as some do handle it and others don't, I love little Hard to Catch and his run in the Stradbroke on the slow gives him a chance here it is just a matter of whether the weight in the track hurts it, Ten To Countdown handles the wet and in front could prove tough to run down it did get every chance last week but I do think Roman Squire is going to be a real nice horse giving him and Hard to Catch a good chance in this, Reverenza is another I like but Pannell being engadged doesn't excite me. I like Vocalic and will have a go at it as the odds should be solid aswell, I amnot sure after that as I could get talked into any of the others I mentioned out of Hard To Catch, Ten to Countdown & Reverenza just depending on the odds
Race 7: Another tough race here the heavy track makes me worried that Pentathon might not handle it with the weight he has hard to say but he has never won on the heavy before and this is a track which if wet really is sloppy, Sculptor handles the wet but his last run was average maybe he was a bit flat from the week before might be willing to give him another go but not at short odds, Rampant Lion does handle the wet and will be in the front part of the field I imagine I do have doubts that he will run the trip right out but he probably gets his chance here, After that I like Sir Sensible is interesting he just might handle the track and his last run was very nice, another thing to keep in mind is the last time Brave Lancer raced on a wet track he won i believe might improve out of sight at odds. I have no intentions of backing everything I mentioned was more just mentioning the ones I didn't mind in the race Sir Sensible is one I want to have something e/w on after tht I want double figures before jumping on to much else might entertain Sculptor at $6 or higher to.
Race 8: Silent Song could improve here today can sort of handle the wet will be odds and didn't get alot of luck last start, Belles Opinion was good last start find it funny that alot hae bagged this it was only 2nd up in the race and could have more improvement yet and has won on the heavy before, Stylized loves the wet I feel it could shorten up if this track proves to be really wet. Like Silent Song as an e/w prospect here to finish the day
The ones I like for the day are
Vocalic, Silent Song & Sir Sensible as they all should be e/w odds looking for value today
Good Luck today guys