oi privateer

[odericko]

ive been using ..a system of sorts very similar to yours .. except i only go as far as no 6 saddle cloth....

[Privateer]

Number 6 & 7 were pretty close when I did the stats.

What else do you know about my system??

[wise one]

Privateer

I have read most of your previous post here about stats and have found them very interesting and have also looked into Mr Pareto's theory.

I am interested to hear if the stats have held their level of impotance over the time you have been using them. What I mean by that is, if you found that the horses place strike rate was the number 1 thing that pointed to them running a place 3 years ago, is it still the number thing today that points to them running a place at their next start?


Thanks

Wise One

[Privateer]

In a word, yes. The stats hold their consistency. The only point of interest perhaps is that the stats that I use don't seem to go as well in fields where the horses are of poor quality. The better the quality of the field, the better the stats seem to perform. As a consequence, I introduced a race class factor based on total average prizemoney (won by each runner multiplied by the number of runners divided by the number of runners) into the method 18 months ago that has worked well. (The final average must be a certain amount for the race to qualify)

Privateer

[wise one]

In a word, yes. The stats hold their consistency. The only point of interest perhaps is that the stats that I use don't seem to go as well in fields where the horses are of poor quality. The better the quality of the field, the better the stats seem to perform. As a consequence, I introduced a race class factor based on total average prizemoney (won by each runner multiplied by the number of runners divided by the number of runners) into the method 18 months ago that has worked well. (The final average must be a certain amount for the race to qualify)

Privateer

Privateer

I very interesting stat. Do you mean that you add all the runners average prizemoney and then divide it by the number of runners,or have I misunderstood your above formula?

I am currently looking at the stats of a horses last 2 placing and where those placing were ie Saturday meeting versus midweek/provincial meetings and their placing ( 1st - 4th )

I have found some interesting results in the small sample that I have completed so far, but need to do more work on they to find how reliable they are


Wise one

[Privateer]

Sorry, my error. You're right Wise One.

As a matter of interest on the subject of form, I only concern myself with a horses most recent start where it must have finished in the first 2. I have found that WHERE it ran to achieve that last start finish is pretty much irrelevant (as is the distance from the winner if it ran second).

Cheers

Privateer

[wise one]

Privateer

I agree with you in regards to margin from the winner being irrelevant, and that their previous placing more relevant.

So far I have been looking at all runners combined and working out the most important stats to narrow down the runners in each race, but I was wondering if there is a point where I should stop looking at all the runners and start looking at each race as an individual event?

An example is if you are left with 3 runners in a race with all 3 having the same stats, placed at their last start (1st - 4th), raced in the last 21 days, all having a win percent over 15 and a place percent over 65,to name a few, do you look at each race to find which stat is more relevant, like betting on the runner with the highest place % or win% or do you still look at all runners combined at make the selection criteria tougher so that you are left with fewer runners per race?

Wise one

[Privateer]

Hello Wise One

In my view, the statistics should be viewed as "across the board" and not tweaked to accommodate races. Once you do that, I feel that the importance of the stats as a sole means of finding horses to support, becomes lost.

With the 3 horse in the one race scenario...I VERY rarely encounter that myself (in fact can't remember the last time I did!) I'd be tempted to bet on them all but that also depends on your staking method. Any more than 3 and I'd wipe the race.

You are spot one when you say that "make the selection criteria tougher" as that is what I would do if in your position. You may for example want to either really lift that win rate % or drop it completely. I don't use win rate % at all as I found that the place rate % (60%+) is a better guide to finding selections that may win or run a place.

This of course may not suit someone who bets win only. I bet 1 x 3 as I discovered very early on that your selection does not have to be first across the line in order to win money on the race.

Sorry that I can't be more specific but I can't give away too much here!!

Cheers

Privateer

[wise one]

Privateer

Thanks for your helpful advice and answering my questions. Yes I have read your previous posts about not having to be the first horse across the line to win money on the race and agree with you.

I also understand that you can’t be more specific as you don’t want to go revelling your selection criteria.

I will now have to sit down and not totally rethink my selection criteria but look at those that I can make tougher and possibly introduce a few news ones

Once again thanks for your help and advice

Wise One

[Privateer]

You're welcome and I hope I've helped a little.

Cheers

Privateer

(wyattninteen@hotmail.com)

[wise one]

Hi Privateer

A couple more questions if you don’t mind?

1. Should I be grouping all races together? By this I mean should I be looking at 3 yo races separate to races for all ages. My thinking here is that because 3 yo have had fewer races there win/place % is normally higher.

2. Should I be looking at race distances separately? From having looked at the days from the previous start I know horses with a break of 21 days or more win/place in races up to 1400m a greater amount than in races over 1400m

Also a neighbour of mine who likes to have a bet gave me a book to read, which had a lot of different selection and staking methods in it. This book was printed about 1951/1952 as it had the race results in it. (My neighbour is about 80 yrs young) Most of the selection methods in this book dealt with using the top 3 picks in the papers. What you have to do is get each persons selection for the race and award 3 points for the 1st pick, 2 points for the 2nd pick and 1 point for the 3rd pick. So what I have started to do is note down each selectors picks for Bris. Syd and Melb from the Sportsman and Courier Mail and see how accurate they are and if I can use them in my selection method. They say that the tipsters aren’t that good, but I have never paid their selections too much notice, so I thought I should keep an open might about it and see how they go.

I hope that you can answer my questions, if that’s possible, as I do understand you don’t want to be giving away information as to how you do your selection method. What I am hoping, is that you can help me with how I should be looking at stats. Like should I be putting races into different groups and look at each group separately or have I got it all wrong and need to totally rethink it.


Thanks

Wise One

[Bhagwan]

I think what you will find is that the average tipsters SR for their top 3 is 46%
But they all have great days & not so great days.

I feel 46%+ is very good .
I have found in the past its better to work with 5-6 tipsters rather than 10 or more for whatever reason.
One tends to hit the better prices this way.
As with 10 & more tends to hit a lot of the shorter prices.

I would suggest breaking the 8 race venue into 2 halves .
4 & 4.

Try & strike a winner within those first 4 then stop.
Now do the same with the final 4 races.

Staking plan 2 2 3 4 = 11 until a winner ,dont go any further start again .
Or 3 3 3 3 = 12 level stakes.


For 2 horses a race bet 3 + 2 = 5
This is equal to 60% + 40% this works well on the right selections especially if there is a juicy price with a short priced commodity.
It gives a punter a lot more confidence in his betting if the prices look right.

Place the $2 on the longer price of the 2 horses or visa vera for value hunting & $3 on the other.
e.g. if the 2.50 shot looks like he is drifting in the market & has a chance of losing & one of your other chances is paying $14 , one would feel more confident having a crack at the $14 shot knowing one is covered with short priced Fav.
If the $2.50 wins x 2 ret $5
If the $14.00 wins x 3 ret $42

I feel you will be a lot more successful if you can break it down like this stopping at the first winner in 4, long term.

Do the same for the other venues.

Cheers.

[Privateer]

Hello Wise One

Well, there you are then!! Baggie has sorted out your tipster question!


Briefly...my advice is to totally forget racing "tipsters". Generally speaking, they all tip favourites and are in competition amongst themselves. Take Bart Sinclair in Brisbane. His 3 "best bets" are mostly the 3 shortest priced faves on the program! How hard is that?

Try this, use any paper and follow the tipsters for 1 month. At the same time YOU select your tips as well. Total them up at the end of the month and I'll bet you are not last! They do not have any more of an idea than the average punter, if they did, they wouldn''t be giving away their tips free in a newspaper!

1. Grouping races. No, don't separate the races to apply different stats to them. Maybe use the prizemoney assessor to work out which races you bet on? (I probably average 6 bets per weekend across 4 states.) Don't search for races to bet on, let the races show you which are good betting options.

2. The answer to that is that there are more shortcourse races than anything else! Don't separate distances either. Your stats must apply right across the board. (As a matter of interest, check horses running again in exactly 7 days and see if you can find a pattern there with formlines - there is one!)

Be disciplined, believe in yourself and your information, do your homework, don't lose faith and support yourself with a simple staking plan.

Cheers

Privateer

[wise one]

Once again thanks for you advice privateer. You have save me from wasting a lot of time looking if the wrong direction with the newspaper selections,as I was about to start going back through piles of The Courier Mail and Sportsman getting all the info together

Also thanks for you words of support and encouragement

Wise one

[syllabus23]

I think that the best tipster and the best rating service is the betting market.

Look through every days results (the tassie tote is very convenient for this as the closing market is on the same page as the results) and you will find that winner comes from the first four horses in the market very frequently.

I,m sure Wesmip and friends can supply the exact percentage.From memory I think around 80% of the time.

The trick is to work out a successful betting strategy based around this knowledge.

Rating double digit winners is wishful thinking (and we all try to pull it off) Tipsters will throw in a roughie every now and then in the hope of grabbing a few brownie points.But lets face it,when tipping three horses in one race any punter can throw in the odd longshot.

For example.Look at Peter Graham's mounts at the country meetings.Eliminate the short priced horses that he has booked,,,simply tip his longshots.From time to time he will pop up on a 8/1+ pop.Or more frequently a placed horse paying better than 5/1.

The market will prevail.

[Privateer]

To the anonymous hero who has sent me several immature emails regarding my punting suggestions......

I sincerely hope that you have an all up bet and in the last leg (your previous 5 have all won), your 50/1 selection gets nutted right on the line after sitting 6 wide for the entire race, the jockey loses an iron, the saddle slips and your horse cops a huge check from the eventual winner (your "gut feeling" selection) 100 metres out. Your guy protests, the bookies lay yours as long odds on to win the objection, but it gets dismissed!!

Happy punting fool!

[Beagle]

Onya Privateer, love it!! Just goes to show that intellect is not required to turn on a computer.

[wise one]

Privateer

the "hero", is no hero,

If they disagree with your punting suggestions, why don't they put it here in the forum, so it can be discussed by anyone and everyone.

May be the hero is a chicken?

Wise one

[syllabus23]

[Quote)
For example.Look at Peter Graham's mounts at the country meetings.Eliminate the short priced horses that he has booked,,,simply tip his longshots.From time to time he will pop up on a 8/1+ pop.Or more frequently a placed horse paying better than 5/1.


Lolol quoting my own quotes,must be close to masturbation.

Seriously though,this whiz kid of a jockey at Cessnock yesterday rode.

Race4 #4 Fine Dane $8.80 $3.10 for a win

Race7 #8 Hit Play $13.90 $2.80 for a third place

Race9 #7 Level Three $17.30 $5.20 for a third place.

Horses grow an extra leg for Peter Graham,He does this kind of thing often.

Prices are Tassie tote.

Anyone not using the Tassie tote as part of their raceday strategy would do well to have a look.Click on a horse on the betting market window and up comes an interactive form guide,which includes excellent ratings and plenty of useful options,,all free......

[Privateer]

Wise One......any luck working something out? If so, how has it gone?

[wise one]

Privateer

I have been spending time adding the average prize money stat to all my metro results. I have not completed this yet, but I have seen 1 interesting pattern so far that I will be definitely looking into when I have completed it.

With the 7 days I have started doing some work on this and found something that I thought was interesting. It is a stat as to certain runners on a 7day back up not to bet on as they have a very poor strike rate. To me this is as good as finding a stat that provides you with a good percentage of winners/ place getters. However I have only check this out over 6 months and need to check back further

A Question. I only want to bet on runners paying more that $4.00 to win, so what I have been doing is eliminating them before I look at my stats. To me this makes logical sense or should I, as you have said in one of your previous posts, to look at them all together and not separate them?


Wise one

[tariq]

Can anyone help? I've been following Mark Hunter's tips on Saturdays with great success - I get them from the Saturday Morning Mail a great free internet publication, but wonder if I can get midweek tips online somewhere???

[Bhagwan]

Hi Wise One
That 7 day stat is something I came accross also.
The only races that has some profit at times, is if its a LSW within 7 days in races 1200m exactly & that was only after putting it through a number of filters.

Runners within 5 days exactly were even worse.
The only time there was some success was if today wason a Monday only & its last run was on a Metro track & today its on a Pov or Country track.

Another stat was the biggest paying winners started approx 31-45 days prior.
I ran this over the fist 5 in the pre-post market & it was amazing how many blew in the market , yet a number of them won at double digit odds.

Thanks for sharing your findings.

Cheers.

[Privateer]

Wise One

Glad to hear you're getting on with it.

Re the $4 minimum odds....when you have established something like a method you think may be profitable, include your minimum odds suggestion as one of your selection criteria/filters to support your method. There is no harm in ruling a line through the <$4 immediately though.

I have done the stats on pre post prices and use what I discovered as one of my filters. I would strongly suggest you cap a maximum PP odds too and work within those prices. I had a recent winner that was under double figures PP but paid just over 20/1. That is not uncommon.

On the 7 days thing, let me just say this, when I have applied all of my selection criteria and come up with a horse that qualifies and I notice that it is backing up in exactly 7 days, I double my bet! Don't forget though that I only ever bet on Metro meetings and 90% of the time only those on a Saturday. All of my statistical analysis involved Metro racing only so what I say is really only applicable to those meetings.

Cheers

Privateer

[wise one]

Privateer


I have only been looking at Sat metro races in Bris,Melb,Syd.

I have also deleted some races before starting like Hurdle, Steeples and 2 Yo Old

Also I rule out races on slow and heavy track conditions


Wise One

[wise one]

Privateer

A question about how to look at stats

I have a total of 17484 runners of which 4611 placed (including winners) and 1536 were winners only

The way I look at them is all the 17484 runners and see what runners I can rule out to increase my overall % place getters and winners

Or should I just look at all the place getters/winners and find what are the most common occurring stats and removes the least number of runners?

Thanks

Wise One