THE TAB BLASTER

[freowaytogo]

Has anybody purchased this for $97?
It picks one horse per meeting, obviously the one with the best chance.
Many years ago when I tracked the top favourite in a meeting, I started to get a little suspicious, when many a time they would not come in for a place.
Has anybody else noticed this?
It got me thinking that fixing was going on!

[Equine Investor]

I have not tried or even heard of the TAB BLASTER, but in answering the other question - no I don't think that fixing is going on with the shortest favourite of the day. I just think the odds bet don't enable you to win in the long run and many are false favourites.

E.G.

Would you accept $1.40 for a class 3 horse at benalla or would you rather have it on Lonhro and the like.
I just don't think that country horses deserve some of the odds on offer.
I will take even money minimum at a city meeting and 3/1 country minimum - no matter what the form is like. If I can't get the right price, I stay away.

[freowaytogo]

So far as fixing is concerned, do you not think where there is a mega top favourite of the day running, and the odds on everything else is 5 - 1 up, that it would be an ideal time for jockeys to place the odd bet on others in the field?
Especially the one who is on the favourite!
It is just something I noticed after backing the Big favourites, only to see them fail to get a place, and not even really try on a few occasions.

[becareful]

Not if they ever want to ride a horse in Australia again! Even if the stewards didn't discover it I can't imagine the owners/trainer being too happy about a jockey intentionally restraining the horse just to make a few bucks on the side.

More likely explanation is that the horse should never have been at odds-on in the first place and it is only mug punters throwing their money away! My opinion is it is generally unwise to back any odds-on runner - either look for value in the other runners or just watch the race and keep your money in your pocket for better opportunities.

[freowaytogo]

It can be more than a few bucks if the jockey is setting up a nice trifecta.
Eg. Fred (second fav 5-1 you win, Joe (fourth fav 8-1) you come second, and Tom (third fav 6-1) you come third).
I witnessed a certain jockey at Belmont on quite a few occasions burn a top favourite out by either coming out of the gates like a 'bat out of hell' and leading all the way, only to get swamped in the last 100.
The other thing he would do, is be the very last one out and burn the horse out completely trying to catch up, and again fail to get a place.
It wasn't just my paranoid opinion because I also saw fellow punters abuse him back at the enclosure.
What would the above trifecta pay?

[becareful]

The problem with trying to fix a race as you describe is that you basically have to have every jockey in the race involved to make sure you get the right finishing order. Once you split the trifecta among 10 jockeys the payout isn't that good. All it takes is for one jockey to actually have a few morals and the whole system fails and the rest of the jockeys are probably out of racing for life. More likely it was just a bad ride, or bad luck, or the horse wouldn't do what he was told.

Just my opinion but anyone who backs odds-on runners and is surprised when they don't win is just getting a healthy dose of reality. Very few horses have more than a 50% chance of winning so why waste your money?

[The Eggsperth]

My sentiments exactly Becareful. Everytime a top jockey gets beaten on a short priced favourite the old conspiracy theory comes out - the jockey must be receiving a sling. That may well have had some substance to it in the bad old days but I think it holds no weight on city tracks nowadays. Just like all other sports nowadays the chances of getting away with anything are remote.
As punters we always like to blame everyone else for our loses - the horse, trainer, jockey. We always seem to quickly forget the times we win by a nose or we won because the main danger got knocked over.
Be gracious in victory and just as gracious in defeat.

[Bhagwan]

30% Favs have been getting up ever since records have been kept .

One could argue 30% are rigged ,
30% Favs get up ,30% true form mules get up (other than fav.) ,10% "hows your father" "how did that get up" ?.

At the end of the wash up those stats repeat year in & year out, for the last 50 years.

In between all this, there is a profit to be gleamed.

[freowaytogo]

You only need 4 jockeys to be involved to set up certain races, especially if the remaining horses are Muffin The Mule, Dizzy The Donkey, Willy Wonky Legs, Olly Out Of Breath, and Oh Not Not Again!
I know if I was doing the same thing day in and day out, as well as socialising with all the other jockey's a nice little bonus, every now and then, will come in handy.
Also, if fixing doesn't go on, why do the stewards sometimes call the jockeys at the gates, when they know a big plunge has just occured?

[TESTAROSSA]

If you think races are fixed Freowaytogo then why the hell are you in this forum?

If you think races are fixed STAY AWAY FROM THE GAME!!!!

_________________
Good luck and good punting.

And remember a profit a day keeps the Girlfriend/Wife away.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: TESTAROSSA on 2002-09-22 23:28 ]</font>

[wjp]

I like to ask if you watch today when one
Jockey won on 4 long odds. and lost on short
fav?We have lately some very bad planetary
config. which bring ALL bad luck for all short priced favorites.
The horses get smarter because they winning when price is right.

Regards.

wjp.

[Equine Investor]

You can't discount the pressure on the jockeys either.
When an odds-on favourite is running the punters expect a perfect ride, the trainer and owners also expect a perfect ride.
Racing isn't like that.
The best horse in the race doesn't always win. Punters seem to disregard genuine interference, bad luck in running, a pace in the race not suited to the horse etc etc.

Then they bag the hell out of the jockey.

If the horse was 10/1, they'd just say oh well maybe next time!

[freowaytogo]

In reply to TESTAROSSA, I thought that being here might bring up a few answers to my suspicions.
I didn't know this forum was some sort of dark society where if you dare suspect a race is fixed, you shall be cast out and banned from ever returning.
You also say that I should stay away from the sport because of my opinion, well I know that I never back the top favourite of the day anymore, because of my suspicions.
Also, I am not saying that all racing is fixed, just merely pointing out the possibilty of the occasional race.
There are hundreds of chances per week and a jockey only has to do it every now and again to get that little bit of extra pocket money.
For years they have been crying poverty, even though they drive BMW,s & Mercs, so if they are feeling hard done by, they would be more inclined to plan the odd race outcome.
It is like the blue collar worker, and probably the odd white coller worker, they might see something lying around their work place for a long time, and think it would look better in their own place, so in the boot of their car it goes.
It is all human nature, and we are not all honest!
That is why when you are operating something so critical, like a money management plan based on horseracing, you have to know exactly what is going on.
The ones who know more probably are the ones that will end up on top.

[becareful]

freowaytogo,

I am not discounting the fact that the occassional race may be fixed - but it would be a very small percentage of races run these days - the risks are simply too high. I certainly doubt it would happen often enough to make a big difference to you long-term profit or loss.

A bigger problem for the punter, I believe, is that in many cases horses are not always given the best chance to win because trainers want to try out different strategies in lower quality races to see how the horse performs (eg. instructing rider to restrain horse at start of race to see whether it can come from behind or going out hard to see how it lasts, etc). Now this is mainly going to be a problem with the shorter priced horses in lower quality races (no trainer is going to throw away a major race) so the simple answer is avoid backing these horses.

The simple solution, which you already seem to have found, is simply avoid odds-on horses (a sensible idea anyway in my opinion). If you always back the longer odds horses then fixing, if it exists, will never be a problem for you because you will be more likely to benefit from it than be hurt by it!

[TESTAROSSA]

Sorry Freowaytogo , didn't mean to sound so harsh.

It just seemed to me in your posts that you thought the majority of races were fixed and in that case you shouldn't be punting , but i stand corrected.

I love horse racing so much that i don't like focusing on the negatives , because there are so many positives.

In the old days it's been well documented about all the nasty characters involved in fixing races , but in this day and age it seems impossible for anyone to get away with it , especially a jockey which is watched very closely during every race to make sure his mount was given every possible chance.

[freowaytogo]

Another thing that used to catch my eye was the use of the whip.
I would have a couple of hundred dollars riding on the top favourite, to win a measily 10% for a place.
He would come cruising in, in 4th place, no whip at all whist the rest are whipping the living daylights out of theirs.
I know the jockeys know when their horse has gone as far as possible, but when you see the next race and everyone of them are thrashing them right over the line it also gets you thinking.
I don't mind the horses at the back not get the whip but when there is still every chance, it is a bit of a bummer when it is your money on them.

[wjp]

Another thing which I think is wrong in racing that all runners earn or get paid $200.00 in metro and bit less in country races.Because of that some horses running for trial.Trials cost money,
then better option for trainer is to run horse in race-try tactics and get paid for.
One of the racing rules is competitive racing
not trying to to race.
That's my opinion.

[TheDuck]

Besides, have you ever ridden a race horse? They do not like to go slow. It is a job for those guys on top to keep them in check if they're plan for the race is to pace. That's why experienced jockeys win the races. They know how to handle them.

A friend of mine in California has an uncle that breeds, runs and retires racehorses. We ride the retired ones for fun. When two of them get side-by-side you have to hold on for dear life! They really could give a damn that you want them to slow down. They've been bred all their lives to be the horse in front of the other horses. I don't know how jockeys do it. We have to all but stand on the saddle and haul back on those reins like we're stopping a train.

Sure is fun though!

-Duck

[Equine Investor]

TheDuck,

I used to ride my horse only in trackwork.
(I only weight 63.5kg) :eek:
It's all about balance - the horse senses the slightest shift in weight and responds accordingly. That is why some horses respond to some jockeys and not others.

There is a definite affinity with the animal. If you don't understand the horse or the horse misinterprets your "body language" it's all over!

I can certainly say that riding retired racehorses would be fun!

Just a note though, if you relax the pressure off the reins a little the horse should lope into an easy stride - HOWEVER if the horse has not raced for a long time it will just reef and tear at the bit and want to bolt away with you.
In my limited experience what you do is this....
Providing you have a "kind" bit in the bridle "saw" the bit gently in the horses mouth to and fro every time the horse wants to bolt on you - the horse won't like the sensation and will slow down.
It doesn't injure the horse in any way, it's just annoying for them.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-09-24 13:48 ]</font>

[hermes]

Quite apart from "fixing" it does seem to me a fact that not all runners in all races are there to win.

Testarossa, your latest scheme involved last start flops. Form figures of, say, 10 or 18. And then the horse comes back to win the next start.

Certainly, horses have bad days and there is bad luck etc. but how many of these last start flops - with a single glitch in their form figures - have been given an easy race by the jockey under instruction as part of a longer term strategy for the horse? These are often your short-priced faves. Race 1 they win handsomely. Race 2, starting at a short price, fifth or worse. Race 3, back to good odds, a carbon copy of race 1.

There are, as I say, many ways to account for this phenomenon but in *some* cases might it not be part of trainer's longer term strategy. Not a strategy to manipulate the odds, necessarily, but the trainer has his eye on race 3 and race 2 is just a warm up.

I'm not acquainted with the reasoning of trainers, but as an observer of races it seems to me there are occasions where the jockey gives a short-priced last start winner a less-than-full-committed run.

From what I've seen I think racing in contemporary Australia is remarkably clean, but there are countless, utterly undetectable ways to not win a race. Are all runners in all races there to win?

Hermes

Hi, This happened 20 years ago and much has changed for the better since then. A friend at work who lived in the Newtown area of sydney had some schoolday contacts who were people who specialist in concrete shoes. One of them put him onto a phone number in Brisbane. This number had a recorded message about 15 minutes before jumps for the "best bet". The selection was either a cert or an open race.

For 3 weeks we followed the "best bet" and got 11 out of 12 certs, and 3 from 12 open race winners. Then "Fine Cotton" happened. No more phone service.

The word we got apart from "don't know" and "keep your nose out" was that a Mr R Waterhouse was NOT involved.

Thankfully that level of corruption has long gone.

Good punting,
Horse Cents

[Rain Lover]

Freoway2go,
Your main problem, apart from following the Dockers, would appear to be backing short-priced racehorses. Putting $hundreds on a $1.10 place chance or backing odds on straight out is fantastic - for the person on the other end of the transaction. You can bet with me any day.
If you're going to back 3/1 ON chances, then you have to have a strike rate of 75% (3 out of 4) - JUST TO BREAK EVEN. Think about it. At even money, every second bet has to win, just so' you can have the same amount of money you started with. Not even super short-priced horses can maintain that sort of strike rate. Just look at Victory Vein in the Flight stakes today - she never was a $1.40 chance to start with.

[freowaytogo]

Ok Rain Lover, you must be happy this last 24 hrs!
Following Freo is like not knowing the truth about Father Christmas.
We always have something to look forward to.
Maybe the day we make the 8 or the day we win the Premiership the novelty will wear off, but up until then we can only get better...can't we?
As for the system, I can pass my thanks on to Graham Sharp.
Well it was his system that I modified.
It climbed to about $700 plus, from $100, and then dropped to about $200 in the wet months.
It was at that time I withdrew my money from the TAB account, went to Burswood, thinking I could simulate a similar thing on the roulette table, and a few hours later left with a big meal inside me, plenty of drinks and empty pockets.
Back to the racing, the $1.10 bets were calculated by the tab and not through the bookies.
I had a few nice suprises when checking some of the odds at the end of the day and the odd $2.40 would come in.
That is why the $1.10's didn't phase me.
Some times they would be $1.10 when I put the bet on and then end up $1.30.

[Rain Lover]

Hey, hey.
Sorry there was a bit of cheek in my last post. I must admit to being a closet Dockers fan - just love watching the Wiz.
I've also backed them several times on the TAB this year (@ Subiaco only) and at well under $2.00 sometimes. It was a good earner this year.
But betting on the footy is a 2 horse race - there's only us and them to worry about. You can't get knocked off by a roughie getting a dream rails run.
The point about strike rates still holds though. If you're going to place bets with odds under $2, then you have to be very confident that you can pick more winners than losers.
Cheers.

Ok Rain Lover, you must be happy this last 24 hrs!
Following Freo is like not knowing the truth about Father Christmas.
We always have something to look forward to.
Maybe the day we make the 8 or the day we win the Premiership the novelty will wear off, but up until then we can only get better...can't we?
As for the system, I can pass my thanks on to Graham Sharp.
Well it was his system that I modified.
It climbed to about $700 plus, from $100, and then dropped to about $200 in the wet months.
It was at that time I withdrew my money from the TAB account, went to Burswood, thinking I could simulate a similar thing on the roulette table, and a few hours later left with a big meal inside me, plenty of drinks and empty pockets.
1111Back to the racing, the $1.10 bets were calculated by the tab and not through the bookies.
I had a few nice suprises when checking some of the odds at the end of the day and the odd $2.40 would come in.
That is why the $1.10's didn't phase me.
Some times they would be $1.10 when I put the bet on and then end up $1.30.

[Shaun]

I am going to tell you a true story i can't remeber all the facts or the races but i do remeber the horses name and the trainer....It was about 10 years ago i was at the local tab and was watching a race in sydney i think it was an open or something like that a hores by the name of hayles belle (not sure of the spelling) was leading this race by a good margin the race as i remeber had some good horses of the day in it now she did tire and run about 4 i think but i remeber saying given the right race she would win...well i followed this horse for ages....i think she did win a few but i know she did run a few places at the provintual...but the one thing i remember was i seen the horse set to race on a new years day...but because of the nights events i didn't wake till after 2pm new years day...so i rang phone tab to check out the results...well talk about a sick feeling...she won paying $125 $25 for the place...i had not a cracker on her...i don't remember seeing her race again....i would love to know a site that i could search her results....well to end the story i attended the raceing expo in sydney i think it was the first time they had it..maybe the last aswell....there was a trainer there answering questions for the people on horse raceing and such...well i possed the question to him...what ever happend to hayles belle....the look on his face says it all he made an excuse about being late for something and left.....i must say this whole saga was not a total waste i had been telling one of the tab operators about this horse for months before christmas well a few days after new years when i went into the tab...she comes out and pulls me a side hands me $500 and a kiss....and says thanks...don't know how much she won didn't ask.....but i know she had a two week holiday overseas...true story