My Tips

[michaelg]

Carrying on from the Systems forum let's see how today's selections fare. Hopefully not a wipe-out...

Coffs R7 no.1 - Wrong Call
Coffs R8 no.1 - Sectagonal
Rocky R3 no.4 - Oops Sorry
Rocky R6 no.1 - Go The Red
Wyong R7 no.1 - Six Stitcher.

[rabbitz]

six stitcher is dual acceptor scratched from rosehill tommorrow
i 'm thinking of having a nibble...hmmm...

[rabbitz]

Wasn't hungry after all it was well backed but didnt run on :(

[Merriguy]

I'm glad I was not the only one beginning to worry :-)

[michaelg]

A losing day yesterday - Sectagnol was beaten in a photo even though the 2KY caller thought it had won. Could easily have been a winning day.

We'll see what happens today...

Sandown R6 no.1 - Bugatti Royale (the system rates this a special)
Eagle Farm R4 no.2 - Zedeshee
Eagle Farm R6 no.7 - Falzig
Strathalbyn R5 no.1 - Red Hot Curl
Strathalbyn R6 no.2 - Super Lass
Belmont R1 no.1 - The Gray Bear
Belmont R2 no.4 - Red Marshall
Belmont R6 no.2 - Blueless
Belmont R7 no.1 - Fuchsia Lady

[michaelg]

A terrible day yesterday. The results including the testing period shows that the selections that are "C" winners have performed very well, so I'll now only show these.

One selection today:
Northam R9 no.1 - Interange.

[michaelg]

A good start by restricting the selections to only 'C" selections.

Yesterday's sole selection won paying $4.20 and $1.60.

One selection today:
Ipswich R8 no.1 - Aiselgi

One of the rules is races with 9 to 12 starters. However I had not been testing any selections outside the "number of starters" rules so I don't know how they would have fared. There is one such selection today and I will list it and see how it goes.

Ipswich R1 no. 3 - Summons (6 runners)


I have also been testing a similar system with the info on wesmip1's website. Since last Tuesday there have been 3 selections for 2 winners of $4.90 and $5.20, and all 3 placed paying $2.30, $1.30 and $1.80.

There is one selection today:
Queanbeyan R7 no.3 - Piney Creek.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole selection was unplaced.

There have now been 2 selections for one winner for a profit of $2.20 and one placegetter for a loss of $0.40.

Today's selections:
Rosehill R4 no.1 - Cresta Run
Dombeen R7 no.4 - Rasmussen
Victoria Park R5 no.1 - Constructor
Gold Coast R5 no.3 - Shew Stone
Gold Coast R6 no.1 - Father Dex



Wesmip1

Yesterday's sole selection won, paying $4.80 and $2.30.

Today's selections:
Dombeen R6 no.1- Blood 'N' Bone
Gold Coast R4 no.2 - Bald Eagle
Belmont 3 no.3 - Casper Cowbow
Belmont R4 no.1 - Coalseam
Toowoomba R1 no.6 - Shire Girl

[wesmip1]

michaelg,

I must say its good to see people putting my webpage to use ... especially when they are making such a nice profit.

Just looked and two horses have run and won today already :

Dombeen R6 no.1- Blood 'N' Bone - Paid $6.00 on unitab
Gold Coast R4 no.2 - Bald Eagle - Paid $1.90 on betfair

I am looking forward to see how the last 3 are going to run, but regardless you have made a profit today.

Good Luck.

[michaelg]

Wesmip1, the third selection also won (in a canter) just like an odds-on should. I haven't won yet because I've backed them each-way.

I'm also testing a Lay The Fave system based on your website's ratings. Unfortunately there have only been 5 races since yesterday, but fortunately the fave lost in each race.

[feather]

Michaelg, You did not see the two Darwin ones. R1-1, R5-2,
While you are at it, take a note of the horses that have won their last start - ignore the Metro tracks - all of the horses not just the "duel" ones that you are looking at.

[michaelg]

Hi, Feather.

I omitted Darwin only because NSW TAB is not betting at that venue.

I also did look at last-start winners, not only for the dual top selections but also the individual top selections but was unable to come up with anything conclusive. Admittedly the sample was not sufficient, and it was simply the raw results.

If the current method fails I will have a better look at last-start winners and apply any appropriate filters.

Today's last selection ran fourth - it finished fast. Pity, because it was showing $13.50 and $2.60 on NSW TAB.

[michaelg]

There was one scratching yesterday. From the remaining 4 selection there were 3 winners paying a total of $5.60, and all 4 selections placed paying $5.80.

There have now been 4 winners from 6 selections for a profit of $3.80, and 5 placegetters for a profit of $2.20.

No selections today.


Wesmip1.

From yesterday's 5 selections there were 3 winners paying a total of $8.50 (NSW TAB), and 4 placegetters paying $7.80.

There have now been 4 winners from 6 selections for a profit of $7.30, and 5 placegetters for a profit of $4.10.

No selections today.

[michaelg]

Today's selections:

Murwillumbah R8 no.1 - Lost Weekend
Darwin R 6 No.1 - Catwalk Minnie
Darwin R9 no.1 - Nozi
Sale R7 no.1 - Perfect Rule.


Wesmip1's ratings.

With Wesmip1's ratings I have been looking at all races regardless of field size which differs with the above method in which is limited to fields of 9 to 12 runners. From the six races listed here so far there have been four with 9 to 12 runners for three winners and one second. From today I will identify the selections that are outside this range of starters.

Today's selections:
Sale R6 no.3 - Phantom Run (7 starters)
Darwin R4 no.2 - Little Uma (8 starters)

[michaelg]

From yesterday's 4 selections there were no winners, 3 placegetters for a profit of $1.80.

There have now been 4 winners from 10 selections for a loss of $0.20, and 8 placegetters for a profit of $4.10.

No selections today:


Wesmip1 ratings.

Yesterday's two selections did not win, but one placed paying $2.20.

9-12 runners. There have now been 4 selections for 3 winners for a profit of $9.30, and all 4 placed for a profit of $4.60.

Non 9-12 runners. There have now been 4 selections for 1 winner of $1.80 for a loss of $2.20, and 2 placegetters for a loss of $0.30.

Today's selections - all are in the 9-12 runners category. Hopefully they will do well:

Rocky R4 no.2 - Doog Trois
Rocky R7 no.1 - Go The Red
Taree R7 no.1 - Space Academy.

[wesmip1]

Not a bad result michael,

2 seconds and a first.

[michaelg]

Wesmip1, there have now been 7 selections in the 9-12 range, and the worst any one of them has run is second. Not bad!!!

Having said that, the kiss of death will most likely now raise its ugly head, or should that be "its ugly lips"?

Yesterday I had my doubts about Space Academy but it ran second paying $1.80.

[michaelg]

My System.

One selection today:
Belmont R6 no.1 - Moss Street.


Wesmip1's System - 9 to 12 starters.

From yesterday's 3 selections there was one winner of $3.00 and all three placed for a profit of $1.44.

There have now been 4 winners from 7 selections for a POT of 133%, and 7 placegetters for a POT of 86%. It's early days, but it is encouraging.

No selections today.

[michaelg]

My System.

Yesterday's only selection was unplaced.

There have now been 4 winners from 7 selections for a loss of $1.20 but with Place betting a profit of $3.10. This is not surprising because the method is based on the neurals which seems to favour Place betting.

One selection today:
Townsville R3 no.3 - Splendorous.

Wesmip1

No selections today.

[michaelg]

My Tips.

Yesterday's only selection won paying $1.90 and $1.20.

There have now been 5 winners from 12 selections for a loss of $0.30, and 9 placegetters for a profit of $3.30.

No selections today


Wesmip1.

One selection today:
Ipswich R2 no.10 - Onyourmarque ($51 in the pre-post market)

[michaelg]

My Tips.

Today's selections:
Randwick R3 no.1 - Beau Covet
Randwick R7 no.7 - Royal Lineup
Moonee Valley R6 no.1 - El Segundo
Moonee Valley R7 no.2 - Emerald Jack
Eagle Farm R8 no.5 - October Sky
Morphetville R2 no.1 - Roll Me
Morphetville R7 no.12 - Truly Beautiful
Toowoomba R4 no.1 - Duomo
Belmont R4 no.2 - Glamourzon
Belmont R7 no.8 - Rich Ken
Belmont R8 no.1 - Go The Surt


Wesmip1.

Yesterday's only selection was unplaced.

Today's selections:
Randwick R6 no.4 - Ynder Command
Moonee Valley R7 no.2 - Emerald Jack
Morphetville R2 no.2 - Silent Action.

[michaelg]

I'll only list Wesmip1's selections as they are doing very well, particularly for the Place.

There were no winners from yesterday's 3 selections but all placed for a profit of $2.00.

There have now been 11 selections for 4 winners for a profit of $5.30, and 10 placings for a profit of $7.04.

One selection today:
Wagga R6 no.1 - Tantat Spur.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole selection was unplaced.

There have now been 4 winners from 12 selections for a profit of $4.30, and 10 placegetters for a profit of $6.04.

No selections today.

[michaelg]

Again no selections today:

However there is one that would have been a selection except for the fact that there are only 8 runners:

Rocky R5 no.8 - Milora Miss.

[michaelg]

One selection today:

Eagle Farm R7 no.3 - Umaprince.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's only selection placed paying $1.50.

There have now been 4 winners from 13 selections for a profit of $3.30, and 11 placegetters for a profit of $6.54.

One selection today:
Townsville R4 no.6 - Hot Dice.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's only selection placed paying $3.00.

There have now been 4 winners from 14 selections for a profit of $2.30, and 12 placegetters for a profit of $8.54.

No selections today.

[michaelg]

No selections today.

[michaelg]

Today's selections are:

Sandown R3 no.9 - Divine Princess
Belmont R7 no.3 - Decryptor.

[wesmip1]

Another winning day...

[michaelg]

Yes, Wesmip1, it was another good day for your ratings.

The only drawback is that the method is so selective that there is not much action. Since commencement on 3 August there have only been 16 selections.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's 2 selections there was one winner of $3.80 and both placed paying $3.10.

There have now been 16 selections for 5 winners providing a POT of 25.6%, and 14 placegetters for a POT of 60.0%.

One selection today:
Wyong R6 no.2 - Hellbound Hujain.

[wesmip1]

michael,

Another placing today .... Keep it up...

Look at it this way - 20 days 17 selections and 15 placings.

If the pot is around 50%/60% at bets of $100 you are currently up just over $1K this month already.

Even if you only get another 5 bets in the next 10 days, if you continue at 60% the the result will be a profit of (25*0.6 =) 15 units. Betting this at $100 you will be up $1500. Betting $200 you would have $3K(36K a year).

$100 and $200 are not huge bets that would move the market. Really you could be betting up to $500 (turns out to be around $90K a year) and making a nice living out of it.

The idea is to find the highly consistant methods, test them over 3-6 months and then start betting. This method looks to be shaping up well.

BTW I have been throwing a few dollars on your selections each day so I should say thanks ....

Good Luck.

[michaelg]

Wesmip1, yes it's doing very well, and its good that you (like me) are winning on it.

The profit should be even better because early in the peace I included a horse against my better judgement that was unplaced at its last start. It was an outsider and was unplaced which was not a surprise so I decided to omit these horses. If I had implemented this rule from the very start there would have been one selection less and more importantly only one accident for a very good strike rate and POT. As a matter of interest, I use NSW TAB divvies - the results would be better with IAS or Betfair.

Even races that were not 9 to 12 starters would be showing a good profit if restricted to selections that placed at their last start. The last one I can recall was a few days ago with 8 runners which I did not list here. It won paying about $3.50 and $1.50.

If there are any selections in these races I will list them but identify that they are not system selections.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole selection placed paying $1.40.

There have now been 5 winners from 17 selections for a POT of 18.2%, and 15 placegetters for a POT of 59.1%.

One selection today:
Townsville R5 no.3 - Eagle Heights.

There is also one non-system selection because there are only 8 runners:
Scone R1 no.1 - Glenbarra Boy.

[wesmip1]

michaelg,

If posible could you send me an email ... psmiffy79@aol.com

Good Luck.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's only selection won paying $2.80 and $1.60.

There have now been 18 selections for 6 winners resulting in a POT of 27.2%, and 16 placegetters for a POT of 59.1%.

No selections today.


Non system selections.
Yesterday's only selection ran fourth.

One selection today:
Belmont R2 no.7 - Yellow Moon.

[Stix]

michaelg,

If posible could you send me an email ... psmiffy79@aol.com

Good Luck.Don't do it........... he never gets back to ya !!! :D

[michaelg]

He has.

[wesmip1]

michaelg,

Just a heads up that I am going away this weekend and won't be able to run the program. I'll try and get Saturdays done before I leave but Sundays times will not be available.

I expect to resume Monday again.

[michaelg]

Thanks for informing me.

Have a good weekend - hopefully there will be racing.

[michaelg]

No selections today.

[michaelg]

No selections today.

[michaelg]

Yesterday Balaklava R6 no.3 would have been a selection but I omitted it because it did not place at its last start. It won paying $3.40 and $1.60.

No selections today. However, only because the below named horse is in a field of 7 it is not a selection.

Northam R2 no.3 - Life Beckons.

So that this thread might still hold some interest I will also list two methods that have been performing quite well.


Form Method.
No selections.


Prizemoney Method.
Mt Gambier R7 no.5 - Marana Majic.

[michaelg]

At last - a selection. It is:

Toowoomba R3 no.1 - Chilly Weather.

The following would have been selections, except:
Sandown R2 no.2 - Aces High (less than 9 starters)
Toowoomba R5 no.7 - Zahbah (unplaced last start)
Toowoomba R7 no.4 - Time And Dandy (unplaced last start)


Form.
Sandown R2 no.1 - Dicktator.

Prizemoney.
Yesterday's only selection was unplaced.

One selection today:
Toowoomba R1 no.5 - Rocktari.

[wesmip1]

MIchaelg,

If you want these tested over the data I have just send me an email with the rules or post them here.

Good Luck.

[michaelg]

At last, a selection. It is:

Warwick Fram R8 no.14 - Double Dip ($31 pre-post)


Form.
Warwick Farm R10 no.2 - Testimonial
Flemington R2 no.1 - Pins On Parade
Eagle Farm R3 no.4 - Charmana Star
Belmont R2 no.6 - Special Reserve
Belmont R4 no.4 - Rosskaen.

Prizemoney.
Eagle Farm R6 no.12 - Notre Amour
Belmont R1 no.1 - My Time.

[michaelg]

Yesterday's sole selection was unplaced.

There have now been 19 selections for 6 winners for a POT of 20.5%, and 16 placegetters for a POT of 50.7%.

No selections today.


Form Method.

From yesterday's 5 selections there were 2 winners for a loss of $0.70, and 3 placegetters for a loss of $0.40.

Two selections today:
Bendigo R6 no.1 - Luciano
Halidon R3 no.1 - Kingston Sea

[michaelg]

No selections today.

However, if there had been 12 instead of 13 starters at Sun Coast R5, then no.6 would have been a selection.

Form.
One selection today:
Wangaratta R7 no.6 - Invocera Lad.

[westman]

Hi michaelg, any selections today?

[michaelg]

Hi, Westman.

Hope you backed yesterday's "selection". Even though there were 12 starters in the race due to a late scratching I cannot include it in the results because it was a non-selection at the time I posted.

There's no selections today.

However, Belmont R3 no.2 (Money Exchange) would have been except for the fact that there's only 7 runners.

[michaelg]

There are 2 genuine selections today:

Toowoomba R2 no.1 - Chilly Weather
Toowoomba R7 no.10 - Kanes Crossing ($21 pre-post).

[michaelg]

A very bad day yesterday- both selections were unplaced.

One selection today.
Townsville R2 no.3 - Positron.

[Stix]

Yesterday's sole selection was unplaced.

There have now been 19 selections for 6 winners for a POT of 20.5%, and 16 placegetters for a POT of 50.7%.

No selections today.


Form Method.

From yesterday's 5 selections there were 2 winners for a loss of $0.70, and 3 placegetters for a loss of $0.40.

Two selections today:
Bendigo R6 no.1 - Luciano
Halidon R3 no.1 - Kingston SeaGoing along nicely Mg...

[michaelg]

Hi, Stix.

Unfortunately its now going backwards in a hurry. I'm thinking of ending it in case anyone is backing the selections and continues to lose.

[Stix]

Hi, Stix.

Unfortunately its now going backwards in a hurry. I'm thinking of ending it in case anyone is backing the selections and continues to lose.Don't worry.... it's up to THEM....... not you !

[michaelg]

You're right, Stix. Hopefully no one will lose and that the method will pick up.

No selections today.


Just out of interest I'll list a few of Don Scott's top selections and see how they go.

Ararat R8 no.8 - Toleba Rebel
Deagon R3 no.4 - Mirabilis
Deagon R5 no.10 - Rash Promise.

[michaelg]

Wesmip1.

There is a selection today:
Gold Coast R7 no.7 - Fools Rush In.


My selections:
Gold Coast R5 no.3 - General Patton
Belmont R3 no.1 - Star Escort.

I have been having good success by backing every selection to win, box quinellas and trifectas. I'll see how they go today:

Sandown R6 nos. 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11
Gawler R7 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 12, 17
Belmont R6 nos. 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 14, 15.

[michaelg]

Wesmip1.

Yesterday's sole selection won paying $1.90 and $1.20.

One selections today:
Rocky R6 no.1 - Zarizitiz.


My Exotics.

Yesterday was a good day. I'm not recording trifectas, even though it won yesterday, because the strike rate is not very high.

Yesterday's results:
Win Bet.
Outlay $26.
Return $43.80 (NSW divvies)

Quinella Bet
Outlay $62
Return $81.

Today's selections:
Cranbourne R5 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
Cranbourne R6 nos. 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9
Cranbourne R8 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10, 13
Penola R6 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Penola R7 nos. 1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 12
Rocky R3 nos. 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10
Rocky R6 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Narrogin R1, 4, 5, 8, 10.

Win outlay = $48
Quinella Outlay $122

[michaelg]

Correction:

At Narrogin it is R6 (not R1 which has only 6 starters). The numbers are: 1, 4, 5, 8, 10.

[michaelg]

I made an error with Wednesday's results - the profit on Win betting was $9.70.

Yesterday the profit on Win betting was $2.40, and with Quinellas it was $37.

There have now been 9 winners from 11 races, and 8 quinellas.

The POT for Win is 17.7%
The POT for Quinellas is 36.9%.

Today's selections:
Toowoomba R3 nos. 1, 2, 3, 8, 9, 10
Toowoomba R5 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9
Toowoomba R6 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8
Toowoomba R7 nos. 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, 10
Bendigo R5 nos. 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9
Bendigo R6 nos. 1, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14
Bendigo R8 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 11, 12
Bendigo R9 nos. 3, 4, 7, 10, 11, 14, 17
Canberra R3 nos. 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
Canberra R5 nos. 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 11
Canberra R6 nos. 1, 3, 5, 9, 10.

[michaelg]

From today I'm slightly altering the selection method so that it does not disadvantage those returning from a spell.

Today's selections:
Caulfield R4 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10
Caulfield R7 nos. 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 14, 16
Eagle Farm R7 nos. 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 12
Morphetville R4 nos. 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Morphetville R5 nos. 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9
Morphetville R7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 11
Morphetville R8 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 9
Echuca R6 nos. 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Echuca R7 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 7
Echuca R8 nos. 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 13
Belmont R5 nos. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Belmont R8 nos. 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 10.

Win outlay = $79
Quinella Outlay = $226

Fingers crossed.

[Stix]

Died a natural death MickeyG?

[michaelg]

Hi, Stix.

Fortunately its not yet dead. In fact its doing quite well with both Win and box quinellas but there has not been too much action, for example only one race today.

I've also been successfully using it as a Lay method. I lay any horse(s) that has not been selected provided I can get a price of $19.50 or less. I've found that the methods perform better with races that have 12 runners or more which I've been doing for the past week.

I'll start listing the selections tomorrow and see how they go.

[michaelg]

Only one race today:

Moruya R7 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 10.

If any other number not shown above has a Lay price of under $20, then I'll be laying it/them.

[michaelg]

Not a good day. The winner paid $5.40 for a loss of $1.60, and the method unfortunately did not strike the quinella for a loss of $21.

Yesterday I was able to lay two horses which were beaten for a profit of 1.90 units. As a matter of interest, before listing the selections yesterday, there had been 21 selections for no accidents - but that 100% success rate will most likely fail today.

Today's selections.
Geelong R5 nos. 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
Geelong R8 nos. 1, 2, 5, 8, 15, 16, 17
Charlesville R5 nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10.
Charlesville R6 nos. 1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 13, 14

Win outlay of $26
Quinella outlay of $72.

[michaelg]

The forum curse struck yesterday - the first Lay accident, of $16 and there were 8 successes. Even though its still in front I'll alter the method so that only races of 1,500 metres or more will be system races. Maybe its more difficult to rate shorter races where horses are resuming from spells and/or some second-up runners.

There is one race today.

Hamilton R6 nos 3, 4, 8, 9, 12, 14, 15

One of the fancied horses, no.2, is resuming from a spell, and as it has not been selected it will probably be a Lay selection.

[michaelg]

A good day yesterday - it had the winner of $18.20. And also the quinella of $165, the trifecta of $1,190 and the first four of $12,000.

I was also able to lay 2 horses which were beaten.

Three races today:
Flemington R2 nos. 1, 5, 6, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16
Canberra R7 nos. 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 11.
Murtoa R5 nos. 1, 3, 5, 8, 9, 12.

[michaelg]

Not a good day yesterday - two winners from the three races for a loss of $11.10. No quinellas/trifectas/first fours were struck. Its still in profit, hopefully it'll be better today.

I was able to lay 5 horses yesterday which were all beaten.

Two races:
Benalla R9 nos. 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, 15
Gawler R7 nos. 6, 9, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16 17.



I have been using a slightly different method for fields of 9 to 11 runners with success. Yesterday there were two qualifying races for the two winners of $2.10 and $26.30 for an outlay of $10 - the method snared both quinellas for a return of $69 for an outlay of $20, and also both trifectas paying a total of $2,680 for an outlay of $120.

There is only one race today:
Benalla R4 nos. 4, 6, 7, 11, 12

[salty]

Hello Michael

I hope you are allright. It is very unusual for you to go more than a day without updating your selections.
All the best
Salty