A Field Size Experiment

[Dale]

With the help of Wesmip and his automation abilities the class ratings method i was mucking around with a few weeks back has come to fruition.

Rather than list every horse and every rating which i dont have time for ill list two groups of bets,all selctions are clear top raters,meaning the next highest horse isnt within 25% of the top rater.

Group 1 (field size 10 or more starters)
BR3 - 2
BR7 - 4
SR4 - 1
SR5 - 1
SR7 - 10
SR8 - 2
MR4 -8
MR7 -1
MR8 -3
AR7 - 2

Group 2 (fields of less than 10 starters)
SR1 -2
SR2 -1
MR1 -4
MR2 - 1
MR3 - 5
MR5 - 1
AR3 - 2
PR5 - 5
PR6 - 1


My money is on group 1 but group 2 has the better quality horse,it should be interesting to see how they go.

[Dale]

Stop the fight its all over.

Group 1 even with the weight of my money in a comprehensive victory,nah forget victory its a knock out.

[Dale]

Todays results -

Group 1 (field size 10 or more starters)
BR3 - 2 3rd 1.70
BR7 - 4 1st 1.90 1.30
SR4 - 1 3rd 2.30
SR5 - 1 2nd 1.40
SR7 - 10 2nd 3.10
SR8 - 2 X
MR4 -8 1st 5.20 1.90
MR7 -1 X
MR8 -3 X
AR7 - 2 1st 29.50 5.50

10 bets
3 wins = $36.60 (+$26.60
7 places =$17.20 (+$7.20)


Group 2 (fields of less than 10 starters)
SR1 -2 X
SR2 -1 2nd 1.10
MR1 -4 2nd 4.80
MR2 - 1 1st 2.20 1.2.0
MR3 - 5 1st 2.80 1.40
MR5 - 1 2nd 1.40
AR3 - 2 1st 2.50 1.20
PR5 - 5 X
PR6 - 1 1st 2.20 1.60


9 bets
4 wins = $9.70 (+.70c)
7 places = $13.20 (+$4.20)


Total
19 bets
7 wins = $46.30 (+$27.30)
14 places = $30.50 (+$16.50)


Things are even worse for the small field runers if i drop the limit to 9 starters or more,considering the small amount of other contenders they have to beat the small field runners really dissapoint.

Its more than just the lower average dividends,to me its all about pace and trueness of the race,my opinion is that most class horses perform better in larger fields where the margin for error is greater and the best horse is more likely to win the race.

[wesmip1]

Dale,

Both paid off quite well for the place.
Looking good so far ...

Good Luck

[Racer]

Dale,

Both paid off quite well for the place.
Looking good so far ...

Good Luck
Wes. or Dale - I am not awake yet - could you run your pens over the
place additions\result\total please ?

[crash]

Lets think hypothetical. Just suppose some jocks wanted to rig a race result [no accusations here, just a theoretical exercise as we all know jockies would NEVER do such a thing], what size fields would they choose? Correct, very small ones [a hypothetical guess of course].

Have a look at races with 8 [usualy 6 or 7] or less runners and how many winners there are that are mostly the 2nd longest priced runner [the longest would usualy be too obvious] ..... anyone else smell fish [hypotheticaly speaking] or opportunity?

Just a few example over the last 3 days [only]:

4Aug. Rosehill r1/4 ROYAL DISCRETION 16.30 [longest odds 6 runners]

3 Aug. Ipswich r1/7 PUFF THE MAGIC 20.70 [2nd longest odds 6 starters]

2 Aug. Mackey r1/7 RATHER FIERY 13.90 [2nd longest odds 8
starters]

2 Aug. Hawsbury r2/7 RATHER FIERY 13.90 [2nd longest odds 6 starters]

They go on and on as fare back as you want to look at results and [seem to] happen very regularly.

[crash]

Sun.
Werribee r1/1 and 9 the win [9 runners but 1 scr.]
Kalgoolie r1/1 and 5 the win [5 runners]

[darkydog2002]

Good grief Crash .

Your not talking "boat "races here are you.?

Perish the thought.

darky.

[Dale]

Wes the within 25% idea only came to me yesterday in an effort to save time posting all selctions,i agree so far things are looking good,im happy with how the ratings are performing,theyre far from perfect and very raw but if you pick the right races it keeps producing.

Someone from the MP forum was saying he cleaned up last week just taking the top two in a quinella,he was dissapointed i dint list the top 3 this week,we might have to get together and work out a public page hey.

[Dale]

Lets think hypothetical. Just suppose some jocks wanted to rig a race result .

Crash ive got a slightly less cynical veiw of things,its all about pace.

I think it was you who posted a while back saying pace was the key to finding winners,i didnt reply at the time but i think you have something there,what i would add to it is to look for horses who have performed well in a field size similar to todays race,thats a bit easier to line up than trying to work out speed maps etc.

If i wasnt up to my ears in these ratings i think thats would be what im doing.

[crash]

i SEE THE KNOW ALL IS BACK

Geez mate, one post and you have finally found a voice and a life. Good on ya!

Got anything to contributer about horse racing, or are you just a people potter?

[crash]

Crash ive got a slightly less cynical veiw of things,its all about pace.

I think it was you who posted a while back saying pace was the key to finding winners,i didnt reply at the time but i think you have something there,what i would add to it is to look for horses who have performed well in a field size similar to todays race,thats a bit easier to line up than trying to work out speed maps etc.

If i wasnt up to my ears in these ratings i think thats would be what im doing.


I agree with you Dale. Pace is [almost] everything I think. I look for runners who can run time and then pace to suit.

[crash]

Continuing on Dale about looking at suitable pace + time [within 2 seconds of course record] etc. Below is an example of what I do with races that have run within 2 sec. of course record [the rest are a waste of time and tell us nothing].
I look at the place getters of the races that have run time and then the stewards reports. The * marked horses go in my black book for next run for special consideration and the other placegetters next race also because they have run time and look for pace to suit for all of them.

Caulfield Sat. 4 Aug. Track good 3, Penetrometer: 4.68

R1 1000m 0:57.66 [record 56.10] 1.56 [within 2 sec. of course record]
1. PINS ON PARADE
2. TIS FOLLY [had a tendency to lay in under pressure in the concluding stages]
*3. DANE THE RAVE [was held up for a run rounding the home turn]

R2 1000m 0:57.87 [record 56.10] 1.77
1. ROYAL ASSHER [was held up for clear running rounding the home turn]
*2. BEL MER [shifted out and bumped Listen Here when obtaining a run between that filly and La Goulue near the 200m]
3. LA GOULUE

R5 1200m 1:09.39 [record 1.07.74] 1.65 [an obvious contender race for time, but nothing really special time wise here]
1. APACHE CAT
2. HARADASUN [Haradasun commenced to over-race when the pace slackened in the middle stages and that near the 600 metres he had to ease to the outside of Apache Cat to improve his position, D Oliver added that Haradasun then layed in under pressure over the concluding stages and in his opinion, Haradasun will benefit from today’s run].
5 HONALEE

R6 1400m 1:23.13 [record 1.21.20] 1.93
1. GUNFIRE MESSIAH [Acting on a report from the starter regarding the behavior of Gunfire Messiah when being placed in the stalls, Stewards notified trainer P Morgan it must trial to the satisfaction of Stewards in a barrier trial at which time it must obtain a barrier certificate]
2. BIRD DANCER [After passing the 600m Bird Dancer had to be checked off the heels of Prospect]
*3. PROSPECT [S Murphy rider of Prospect stated that from his outside barrier and the step up in class of today’s race, he was unable to ride the gelding in a forward position in the early and middle stages which is its normal racing pattern].

R8 1100m 1:03.79 [record 1.01.86] 1.93
SPIELMESTER
*2. KAPHERO [Approaching the winning post Kaphero and Monahan Tweed came together due mainly to Kaphero shifting in under pressure]
3. SNAPPY TOM [A veterinary examination after the race revealed that Snappy Tom had sustained a laceration to its off hind pastern]

[Dale]

I see what youre doing there Crash and it makes a lot of sense,id be a little uncomforatable backing up on them unless they were entered in a race where the pace was assured,a stop start affair and i think they could be found out,a couple of them jumped out of their skins compared to what they had done recently but all in all its an angle others arent thinking about.

When i was recording todays results i noticed your suggestion of the 2nd outsider in the small fields had a good day,surely there is a system in the somewhere,maybe all those over $10 up to a certain price in fields of 8 or less.

No offence Odericko but i think that just there is better than anything the cab shaz has turned up lately,to start with it at least contains actual words lol.

[partypooper]

I like Crashs' approach there, it reminds me of a strategy that I used for many years in the Uk successfully, though not as claer cut as that.

I basically used to watch or listen to the commentry of a race, and note down any horse that was prominent but just failed, even back to a close up 5th or 6th place, I nabbed some very good winners with this method, one that "SPRINGS" to mind is a horse called "Gus Demmy" which I nailed at 33-1.

Just an old timer reminising there, hope it doesn't offend!!

[crash]

Well my Caulfield list above is just the initial step. I then check the margins and will be looking at their next starts and whether their race is going to suit and they are not too many runs in from a spell etc. The usual handicapping stuff.

The main thing I'm doing above is establishing the horses who are running time this prep., meaning they can win [the right] races.
The other races not mentioned ran lousy times and none of their runners are worth bothering with next start. Sure some horses in the slow races will have excuses etc. but rather than trying to look at every horse that ran on Sat. I'm just zeroing in on horses that are currently running time. It seems to have legs for me anyway.

Cheers.

[horsewatcher]

Lets think hypothetical. Just suppose some jocks wanted to rig a race result [no accusations here, just a theoretical exercise as we all know jockies would NEVER do such a thing], what size fields would they choose? Correct, very small ones [a hypothetical guess of course].

Have a look at races with 8 [usualy 6 or 7] or less runners and how many winners there are that are mostly the 2nd longest priced runner [the longest would usualy be too obvious] ..... anyone else smell fish [hypotheticaly speaking] or opportunity?

Just a few example over the last 3 days [only]:

4Aug. Rosehill r1/4 ROYAL DISCRETION 16.30 [longest odds 6 runners]

3 Aug. Ipswich r1/7 PUFF THE MAGIC 20.70 [2nd longest odds 6 starters]

2 Aug. Mackey r1/7 RATHER FIERY 13.90 [2nd longest odds 8
starters]

2 Aug. Hawsbury r2/7 RATHER FIERY 13.90 [2nd longest odds 6 starters]

They go on and on as fare back as you want to look at results and [seem to] happen very regularly.
I have been told the larger the field and the shorter the price, the horse is , the more likely, the horse will win, I have seem a $2.. win in a 19 field very easily in a top race, which means the opposition must be poorer , in many melbourne cups the favourite starts at over $7 and often loses. it seems that a horse with exceptional ability ,will over come all negatives in a race and win , often in very small fields the favourite loses , last week in a 4 horse race, the favorite came last, in a big prize money, large fields race, the race is run often at a true pace , and the short price favorite wins.

[horsewatcher]

Lets think hypothetical. Just suppose some jocks wanted to rig a race result [no accusations here, just a theoretical exercise as we all know jockies would NEVER do such a thing], what size fields would they choose? Correct, very small ones [a hypothetical guess of course].

Have a look at races with 8 [usualy 6 or 7] or less runners and how many winners there are that are mostly the 2nd longest priced runner [the longest would usualy be too obvious] ..... anyone else smell fish [hypotheticaly speaking] or opportunity?

Just a few example over the last 3 days [only]:

4Aug. Rosehill r1/4 ROYAL DISCRETION 16.30 [longest odds 6 runners]

3 Aug. Ipswich r1/7 PUFF THE MAGIC 20.70 [2nd longest odds 6 starters]

2 Aug. Mackey r1/7 RATHER FIERY 13.90 [2nd longest odds 8
starters]

2 Aug. Hawsbury r2/7 RATHER FIERY 13.90 [2nd longest odds 6 starters]

They go on and on as fare back as you want to look at results and [seem to] happen very regularly.
i have been told the larger the field and the shorter the price the horse is , the more likely the horse will win, i have seem a $2.. win in a 19 field very easily in a top race, which means the opposition must be poorer , in many melbourne cups the favourite starts at over $7 and often loses. it seems that a horse with exceptional ability ,will over come all negatives in a race and win , often in very small fields the favourite loses , last week in a 4 horse race, the favorite came last, in a big prize money, large fields race, the race is run often at a true pace , and the short price favorite wins.

[Chrome Prince]

i have been told the larger the field and the shorter the price the horse is , the more likely the horse will win, i have seem a $2.. win in a 19 field very easily in a top race, which means the opposition must be poorer , in many melbourne cups the favourite starts at over $7 and often loses. it seems that a horse with exceptional ability ,will over come all negatives in a race and win , often in very small fields the favourite loses , last week in a 4 horse race, the favorite came last, in a big prize money, large fields race, the race is run often at a true pace , and the short price favorite wins.

You're right on the money horsewatcher.
An even money shot in a 19 horse field is like a $1.20 shot in a six horse race (or less). When you do the conversions, it's not hard to figure out why so many hotpots go down in small fields. The shortest priced winner in recent times in the Melbourne Cup was Might and Power and we all know what he did.
Providing you get top odds, this approach is a gold mine.
And again true, a good horse will overcome bad luck in running, those that don't, don't have the ticker or ability, so go out short prices next start and flop (often, not always, but more than they should).

Not blowing wind up your post, just what you posted was spot on ;)

I've landed good winners in Group 1 events all over the world using this approach, recently in Germany and the UK. After converting the prices for field size and getting top odds, it's been a steady stream of profit.

Then you've got Sunline in the 2000 Memsie, Star Of Florida, Scenic Shot, and of course Gold Edition in the Gp 2 Surround.

[partypooper]

Its good to see some old timer stuff pop up with a diffedrent name, i.e. I remember the old blokes in the betting shops in the UK saying "the bigger the field, the better the favourite"