trying to find the best punt method.

[dimboola]

Hi, I'm new here and I love a punt.

I have some questions and I was wondering if I could run them by you?

What is the % of fav winning? about 33% maybe?
What is the % of 2nd fav winning ?
What is the % of 3rd fav winning
What is the % of 4th fav winning


My idea is to pick a race with no more than 10 starters, leave out the fav and back 2nd, 3rd & 4th favs maybe dutching. What do you reckon?

[Mr. Logic]

My idea is to pick a race with no more than 10 starters, leave out the fav and back 2nd, 3rd & 4th favs maybe dutching. What do you reckon?

Comment:
Guaranteed to fail. If it was so easy to win with something as simple as that don't you think it would already be happening? The ONLY way to win imo if you are win betting is to bet for value. That means you must have a method that let's you know with a great degree of long term accuracy, "This horse is no value at $4.00, but at $6.00 it is value. BUT this horse is value at $4.00. In other words you MUST beat the market. Not easy to do. You see most punters are only interested in "finding the winner and backing it." THey do not understand that the odds they get for each bet is CRITICAL to their long term betting success or failure. That's why nearly every punter loses money over the long term, even many who do not admit it."

[Chrome Prince]

The only way it will work is if you can get top odds about the other runners, and the TAB cannot offer you that.

Effectively you are laying the favourite against half the field,but that half of the field is the stronger half.

Mr Logic is logical ;)

Turning a profit is not about picking winners, it's about your average odds obtained.

[darkydog2002]

Chrome.

Truer words were never spoken.

Cheers.
darky.

[partypooper]

IAS at one time used to offer 1-1 the field to beat the fav, not sure if they still do ? I suppose they must have had exceptions though as well.

[Bhagwan]

Heres one method that can work if one has a lot of patience.

Target races with 10-12 runners only this is where some value can be had in the middle price range.
Target the 2nd 3rd 4th 5th paper favs. these usually get up 45-50% of the time.
These get up a lot in fields of 12 & less, it tends to fall away in fields greater than this.

Only bet the one offering a double overlay, in other words, only bet them if the fractional odds are double to what is shown in the paper pre-post market.
There is an online pre-post market at Racingandsport.

To work out double the odds is to remember...
$3.00 decimal odds = 2/1 fractional odds
So double the pre-post price minus 1
e.g. $3.00 x 2 = $6.00 - 1 = $5.00 = 4/1 is the amount one is needing before it becomes a bet.

If there are 2 or more, bet them all, same amount on each.

As a point of interest , most reasonable selection plans strike 20-25%SR but its the final price that they come in at that kills most of them off.
So its a very wise idea to only bet with mobs like IAS fixed price , Sportsbet & Spotrtingbet.
Target the market approx 1-3 min prior to jump
Because one will know what prices that they are dealing with & the market should be pretty settled by this time.

The TAB can be a real lotererry at times e.g. how many times has one seen the 2nd fav at 0 jump time, that ends up being the fav after they have already jumped & ends up winning.

One could try this approach on targeting ones favorite tipster top 2 or Neural top 2 setting.

I did an analysis once of many tipsters, targetting their top selection only & in nearly all cases, they turned a negative return into a profit if one only bet the double overlays to assessed price.

Maybe one could use 5 tipsters at once.

Like I said , it requires patience & dicipline which is something not many punters have.
These are the attributes professional punters have.

You will hit a number of losers before one strikes a series of juicy priced winners, especially on wet tracks.
So have patience.
Try not to look at its form, it will only put you off & one will kick themselves if it gets up at big odds. One has to remember that it is usually why its at those high odds because of its crappy looking form.
Bet 1% of fixed bank.

Cheers.