Another System for Testing

[Panther]

Some simple rules
1) Highest Average Prizemoney
2) Highest Win Strike
3) Highest Place Strike
4) Last start <183 days

[wesmip1]

Tested a system very similar to this before ...

It has a high strike rate but the odds are so low that it returns a 15% loss.

Good Luck.

[Dale]

That doesnt surprise me Wes,systems like these although sensible are missing two things.

The first is value and the second is an edge.

[Panther]

Would be interesting if you could get data using best fluctuation rather than a particular TAB--last week this system came up with All Silent--TAB paid about $10 while BF paid $14

[wesmip1]

1) Highest Average Prizemoney
2) Highest Win Strike
3) Highest Place Strike
4) Last start <183 days
Tested this and got the following:

WROT : 87% ( 13% loss)
PROT: 88% (12% Loss)

Strike rates were 31% and 61%.

You might just make a profit if you tried to take betfair odds or best flucuation. But it wouldn't be worth it.

The problem with this type of system is that 95% of people are looking at the same things which almost guarantees no value in the selections. Also I have found that the top place strike rate, top win strike rate and top API strike rate are not useful when analysing horses under $5 (which the majority of these horses will be).

Good luck.

[Panther]

Thanks for that Wes--don't suppose you would be able to give figures for SP of $5 or better?

[wesmip1]

$5 or better:

Panther not many bets but it showed a huge loss...

WROT : 78% ( 22% loss)
PROT : 80% ( 20% loss)

So taking those out and only taking those at $5 or less:

WROT : 90% ( 10% loss)
PROT : 90% ( 10% loss)

So taking this further andd only taking those at $4 or less:

WROT : 91% ( 9% loss)
PROT : 91% ( 9% loss)

So taking this further andd only taking those at $3 or less:

WROT : 91% ( 9% loss)
PROT : 92% ( 8% loss)

So taking this further andd only taking those at $2 or less:

WROT : 87% ( 13% loss)
PROT : 93% ( 7% loss)

So lets take those abour $2 and below $5 :

WROT : 91% ( 9% loss)
PROT : 90% ( 10% loss)

There are other filters that bring this into profit irrespective of price. If you want to work them out yourself just post what you want tested here.

Good Luck