Strike rates

[wesmip1]

All,

What are peoples thoughts on acceptable strike rates ? Personally I think it depends on the number of bets ... What is your thinking on:

1 bet a day ?
2-5 bets a day ?
5-10 bets a day ?
10+ bets a day ?
Every race ?

Personally I think you need the following :

1 bet a day - 40%
2-5 bets a day - 33%
5-10 bets a day - 25%
10+ bets a day - 20%
Every race - 20%

Any thoughts ?

Good Luck.

[partypooper]

wesmip1, not exactly the answer you were looking for but a few years ago I did a lot of research on pre-post favs, & 2nd favs using various publications for comparison, the first thing that became apparent was that there was very little difference in S/R & LOT between publications, and aslo very little difference between (S/R & LOT) pre-post v actual favs.

So believing I could tilt the S/R in my favour I picked just one pre post fav per day, I did this over an extended time (on paper) after 50 or so hypothetical bets a pattern emerged, i.e. the S/R & LOT were the same as if all pre-post favs had been backed, or if any number had been picked randomly or otherwise. I carried on for several hundred Hypo bets but it was obvious what was happening and I gave up.

I also tried "handicapping" the pre-post favs sorta, and yes, again S/R increased, but the LOT increased in proportion again.

Now the disconcerting thing is that when the actual pre-post price was taken into consideration the S/R increased dramatically the lower the pre-post odds, but the LOT increased in proportion.

What I'm suggesting is that no matter how many bets you place per day your overall S/R and LOT (or POT if you are a clever boy) over an extended period of time will always remain the same???

[YoungBuck]

All,

What are peoples thoughts on acceptable strike rates ? Personally I think it depends on the number of bets ... What is your thinking on:

1 bet a day ?
2-5 bets a day ?
5-10 bets a day ?
10+ bets a day ?
Every race ?

Personally I think you need the following :

1 bet a day - 40%
2-5 bets a day - 33%
5-10 bets a day - 25%
10+ bets a day - 20%
Every race - 20%

Any thoughts ?

Good Luck.I am currently having 2-5 bets per day (well i was until EI) and over the last few months have averaged 35% s/r @ 4.36 for one method, and 34% s/r @ 5.71 with another method. So that is very close to what you are suggesting. Average winning dividend must come in to consideration or the strike rate is completely irrelevent.....

[AngryPixie]

Wes

I've always thought that strike rates taken in isolation are largely irrelevant. It's not size that counts, it's what you do with it :rolleyes:

[moeee]

averaged 35% s/r @ 4.36 for one method
and 34% s/r @ 5.71 with another method.



You seen the Move..THE CASTLE?
If so then you'll understand when I say..."Tell him he's dreaming"
Unless it's true...then you must live in or own a castle. :)

[YoungBuck]

You seen the Move..THE CASTLE?
If so then you'll understand when I say..."Tell him he's dreaming"
Unless it's true...then you must live in or own a castle. :)Would you like to see my results? Guess that wouldn't prove anything.

I did say it was over the past 2 months so maybe i've just been super lucky.

No Castle just yet, but a mortgage the size of one though.....

'It's just...the vibe of the thing. I rest my case'

[AngryPixie]

Hows the serenity?

[YoungBuck]

so much serenity......Lol.

[partypooper]

Cont... One thing I did which managed to show a slight profit, or at least break even was backing the pre-post fav (I used WA TAB-FORM) at Top Fluc. with a minimum price stipulation equal to the pre-post odds eg. pre=post fave = Black Tom quoted @ 3-1, ($4) bet reads $100 (eg) to win Black Tom @ Top Fluctuation, with a minimum price accepted of 3-1. ($4)

So Black Tom wins at 2-1 but had a Top Fluc of 3-1 ($4) bet is on,

eg 2 Black Tom wins at $3.75 but Top Fluc was $3.80 bet is off

eg 3 Black Tom loses, Top Fluc was $3.80 Bet is OFF

I never did the work out but I suspect that it would turn into profit if the Minimum price accepted was say 2 points in excess of the Pre-post eg.

$100 win Black Tom (PPP was 3-1) minimum price accepted = 5-1,

Bets would reduce dramatically but I suspect a profit would be made! I say this because, bets just taken overall or at random (over time) showed about 30% S/R and a LOT of around 10-12%

[crash]

There is one way Party to decrease LOT and get into POT from your analysis and it's called betting 'choice'. Throw in some decent handicapping and betting on well perceived overlays only and results can be turned to POT.

[wesmip1]

Sorry,

what I meant to say was assuming ROT = Profit what is the acceptable strike rate.

A long shot system that has 1 bet a day gets very annoying when you haven't won in 3 weeks but if you are betting 50 bets a day then you will usually hit 1 or 2 every day (or second day).

Again this is all assuming the method you use returns a profit.

Good Luck.

[Chrome Prince]

Partypooper,

Seems we could have saved ourselves some time, I also spent many months on exactly the same journey. I wonder how much diversified time has been spent when it could have been focused?

My findings were exactly the same.

The proportions and ratios were the same, strike rate always seems to be offset by diminishing profit.

One thing I did find, however, was that traditionally odds on favourites are slightly overbet, making the lack of money for the second favourite a longterm winning advantage (at say Betfair prices or Top Fluc).

[partypooper]

Crash, agreed , that was what I was getting at really.

Chrome, good to hear that my research was basically correct, and yes I deliberatly didn't go into 2nd favs at that point as I didn't want to confuse things even more,....... but I also detected an avenue there......the returns were just that % more in the backers favour, but as far as Betfair..... sorry not my forte' there.