Help in betting please.

[Rhystan]

May I ask for your help guys on how to bet please.

I have a method that has....

28.5 per cent SR on wins
84.6 per cent SR overall

$6.47 average win return
$2.39 average place return

To bet ten dollars per bet would you please tell me (on the above figures) how I should split the ten dollars between win and place.

Thankyou for your help.

[Shaun]

50/50 i would run 2 banks, there is more than enough to make a profit with out being to tricky

[partypooper]

Man, you don't need any help, spare a crust for us mere mortals!!

PS Forget $10 per bet, more like $1000 at least.

[Rhystan]

Thankyou Shaun.


Partypooper...I always watch your posts, you have a great sense of humour.
Do you really think thats good? I thought it was chickenfeed to you guys. Now I am worried it will fall in a black hole. I have been testing it every day on every race since July 1st. I have been betting $1EW but thought maybe I should be betting differently.

[AngryPixie]

I have been testing it every day on every race since July 1st. I have been betting $1EW but thought maybe I should be betting differently.

Denise

They are good figures. How many races are you talking about?

Have you worked out your advantage in each group. It may be better to drop one of the sides and concentrate on the other if one has a much higher advantage.

[Rhystan]

$3.19 return for every $2- bet

91 bets Pixie

[partypooper]

Rhystan, all joking aside they are REALLY good figures, if I'd struck on something like that I would do some serious research (archived results) and then carry on with reasonable bank betting say 1% EW and watch closely.

[Gerry]

Before I give you the amount you should be betting I would make the following observations...

A. I would forget about place betting and use your whole bank to follow the win bets exclusively.

B. On your figures for the win, you should win $55.89 for every $100 you outlay if you are betting flat stakes, as follows;

100 bets @ $100 outlay = $10,000
Return = 28.5 times $547.00 (Tote div. of $6.47 is $5.47 to $1.00) = $15,589.50
Profit = $15,589.50 - $10,000 = $5,589.50 or $55.89 for every $100 of outlay.

Now, as to how much you should bet... are you sitting down ?

Your stake should be 15.4% of your progressive bank and assuming a starting bank of just $100, after 100 bets the situation would ( should !!! ) be as follows;

Your bank would stand at $34,617.27
Your profit would be $34,517.27
Your average bet would have been $1024.33
Your next bet would be $5331.06

Now, after almost 50 years of experience, my advice to you would be to follow your selections on paper for at least 12 months, preferably 2 years, because 2 months is nowhere near enough of a time frame to draw conclusions about what should, statistically speaking, happen in the future.

Maybe you have access to past results, which you could check your selections against to save time and begin to make your fortune that much sooner.

Also, to get a more accurate idea of average winning dividend, I would take out of the calculations the top and bottom 10% of win div's and find the average of the remaining 80%.

Finally, the 2 Golden Rules of that highly volatile Investment Portfolio known to one and all as "The Punt".....

Rule 1. NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER bet more than you can afford to lose, and

Rule 2. See Rule 1.

Regards to all,

Gerry

[Rhystan]

GERRY

Thankyou so much for your comprehensive reply. I do appreciate the time you have taken to calculate and post this.

Wise words indeed. I am not a compulsive or impulsive gambler and I heed your advice.

I shall research and see what the figures say.....as you say from first July is not long.

Your idea of a more accurate average winning div I shall work on right now.

Again....thankyou for taking the time to explain all this to me....I will keep you informed.

Kind regards, Rhystan

[Rhystan]

GERRY


Adjusted average win return as per your advice is $5.57

[Chrome Prince]

Denise,

If your figures are based on form or stats, I can run these parameters fairly quickly for you, but if they are based on neurals or ratings, then I'd suggest testing forward for a lot longer timeframe.

Things can turn very quickly.

I have some systems that have done well over 1,000 plus bets, but fell in a hole over the next thousand.
It shows you that you need a big chunk of data for big confidence ;)

All the same the figures look excellent.

If you want help in confidence, drop me a line.

I'm sure other members can attest to the fact that anything shared with me remains your property in strictest confidence.

racestats at hotmail dot com

[Rhystan]

CHROME PRINCE

Thankyou very much for your kind offer, that is very good of you but I am steadily going through the figures and although its not anywhere near a thousand it is still looking consistant and good. I am happy to slowly build up my bank and learn as I go.

[jfc]

With all this mixed advice about near triple-digit POTs, some reality might not go astray.

As some might know IAS has a punting division, in contrast to its traditional bookmaking activities.

Here, derived from ASX notices, are that division's POT figures.

2007 3.2% +$7.3m
2006 6.2% +$11.0m
2005 5.6% +$9.6m
2004 7.3% +$12.1m

Showing how tougher the caper has become.

[Rain Lover]

Denise,
Your current betting ($1EW) is the best course of action - bet what you can afford to lose because there is no certainty that your system will continue to return a profit. You can process whatever amount of past data but it is no guarantee of success at tomorrow's punt. People here seem to lose sight of the fact that the only long term winners at the punt are the tote and the bookies, and the the books are baling out because of dwindling returns.