system test...$100,000

[lcm123]

Hi guy's...I tried posting this before but didn't work I'll try again now.

The system rules:

1. Selection must not be older than 5 years of age
2. Selection last time raced within 7 day's ago
3. Jockey riding selection must be in the top 5 on premiership table
System only was used on Saturday meetings at Adlaide, Melb, Syd Brisbane metro tracks.

I paper tailed this system for 6 months and it made around $100,000 but due to other commitments could not continue (don't know how it would turn out with real cash???) and I was wondering if there is anyone on this forum who has the resources to test this system out for a longer period than I did. Hypothetically, I started with $1000 and bet 5% of the bank to achieve the amount stated above. Look forward to your response.

[AngryPixie]

Just looking at those system rules my guess is that 5% of your bank will kill you.

[crash]

$1000 [5% bets] into $100,000 in 6 months [?]

Result for 22 Sep 07
CAULFIELD
r5/11 x212 Gran Sasso (6)" M Rodd [unp]
r7/3 1x90 Wonderful World (4)" L Nolen [3rd. 3.90p]
EAGLE FARM
2/5 0x44 Vainroc (4)" A Pattillo [unp]
3/1 2284 Life's Short (5)" A Pattillo [2nd 1.90p]
MORPHETTVILLE
Nil Qualifiers

It's only 1 Sat. but, O/l $200 approx, Return Nil.

[wesmip1]

Just ran the System rules with slight modification ( To restrict to SR, MR, BR, AR Saturdays only) and I don't have a running table of Jockeys in top 5 so I juyst chose a those from the current top 5 list on ************ website...

As per most systems the ROT is approx 86% using Unitab figures.

Good Luck.

[lcm123]

Thanks for running the test wesmip1. What period of time did you run it for? What strike rate did you achieve? It usualy used to give a winner every 6 to 7 selections, but thats not to say it's going to do that now. My records for the 6 months was 36% strike rate.

Crash...not good this week end, eh? Perhaps it will pick a winner next week and put the balance into profit...I hope! ha ha ha.

Angry pixie...I hope that is not the case, but with all staking plans I guess it's all a matter of consistancy of selections and most importantly value dividends...only time will tell, eh?

Thanks again for your responses guys.

[partypooper]

I was thinking that 86% ROT for such a simple system was pretty good actually, especially at Unitab prices, but one thing that puzzles, lcm123, you say that you achieved 1 winner in 6 or 7 (about 14%) yet you go on to say that you achieved 36% S/R?? not knocking just confused?

[wesmip1]

lcm123,

That test was over 3 years of data. The Strike rate was 17%.

Good Luck.

[crash]

I thought ROT of approx 86% pretty good.

With a few simple filters it could be improved no doubt. I'd change the 'within 7 days' to exactly 14 days only [14 days is always a better turn-a-round than 7 days]


1. No 2yr. old races or Maidens, Cups, Stakes or Group races.
2. Distances from 1100m to 2220m on Dead or better tracks only.
3. Selection must not be older than 5 years of age
4. Selection last raced exactly 14 day's ago only
5. Jockey riding selection must be in the top 5 on premiership table from any state.
6. If more than 1 selection ignore race.

[lcm123]

Hi Partypooper...I was going on memory of the strike rate, but I searched around the house and finally found the records of the system test...I'm actualy glad you brought it up because, I'm sorry and embarrassed to say I made a stupid MISTAKE. I discovered that the system that I tested (back in 2002) that made $100,000 was actually used with another system and results are from both...sorry about that.

When I started this thread I forgot that I used both together...sorry again. I separated the two systems and ran it again on it's own...found that for the 6 months, the system (mentioned in this post) actually produced $28,492...which isn't to bad. Sorry again for the stuff up guys.

Heres the results:

64 selections for 23 wins
strike rate 34.93%
longest loosing run was 9.

[crash]

Slight change in rules:

1. No 2yr. old races or Maidens, Cups, Stakes or Group races.
2. Distances from 1100m to 2220m on Dead or better tracks only.
3. Selection must not be older than 5 years of age
4. Selection last raced 14 day's ago or less
5. Jockey riding selection must be in the current top 5 for the track.
6. If more than 1 selection chose the higher rated jockey.

Ballarat today. 3 selections for 2 wins:
5/5 Spinning Lady 11.60w
8/5 Moment of Truth 3.70w

[lcm123]

Good on ya Crash...hope you had something on them. I was going to have a go myself today with your filters, but got cought up at work. Oh well might check it out tomorrow.

[crash]

Well I had $5w on each of the 3 bets just for fun. Might be somthing in it.

[lcm123]

Hey Crash...I just did tomorrows selections, but I used the best 5 Jocks for the state, because did not have stats for best 5 Jocks for the track...I'll re check them tomorrow for the track also.

for the 26/09/07, Wednesday

Balaklava
R1 number 4 Double dealing
R8 number 3 Climb the hill

Mooney valley
R6 number 7 Distinctive lass

Hope I applied your rules correctly!

[crash]

These are based on the rules I used yesterday. I've used jockies from the top 5 SR for the track among those riders in each race. I avoided just using the state premiership top 5 riders as they are not necessarily the best riders for any particular track. Jockies do well on some tracks and lousy on others.

Who would have know that the top SR rider for the Caulfield track last Sat was S.Katadis? He only had 2 rides but scored a place in r3/7 Amyjaye Power and a win on r4/9 Gabbidon $33.70w !!!

Wed. 26 Sept.

Balaklava
1/2 513 Esprit De Roses (5)'' D Tourneur
2/4 7732 Kenwick (6)" C Lever [sub 1]
5/4 3515 The Ozie Boy (1)" C Lever [sub 7]
6/6 28x4 To A Fault (NZ) (5)" J Lyon

Moonee Valley
2/5 4x70 Zingara (2)" M Rodd
3/10 2222 One Way Or Another (3)" Dean Holland (a 2.0)
4/4 8x1 Private Liaison (7)" M Rodd
5/9 2111 Tears I Cry (12)" S W Arnold
6/11 x516 Frangelico (1)" M Rodd [sub 7,10]
--------------------------------------------------------

[Beagle]

Top 5 percentage of riders at the track is an angle I have never thought about. Sure makes a lot at sense though but where do you find the list?

[crash]

I can't give free plugs here but give me an em address and I'll send it.

You'll find the top 5 trainers per race there too.
A punter could come up with all sorts of systems using the top 5 riders and/or trainers per race on any particular track.

These horses also have top 5 SR trainers for the track*

Balaklava
1/2 Esprit De Roses*
2/4 Kenwick*
6/6 To A Fault*

Moonee Valley
2/5 Zingara*
4/4 Private Liaison*
5/9 Tears I Cry*

[Beagle]

Thanks Crash. Email me at cardes1 at optusnet dot com dot au

[Beagle]

Thanks Crash. Much appreciated.

[lcm123]

Hey crash...you wouldn't be able to send me that web site (re Jocks and Trainer track stats) also, could you? Thanks...I appreciate it if you can.

Email: law1mall at hotmail dot com

[crash]

Icm123,

Not a great day.
Climb the hill 3.20w 1.60p from your 3 selections
and 2 place-getters and another smallish winner from my lot.

I'll send you the web address.

[lcm123]

Yeah...I actualy didn't back mine, ha ha...I decided to back yours instead...just put a little on all of them. Smal win on "Tears I cry"...he was paying around $4 on NSW tote, but then...as usuall, the price droped to $2.40...better than nothing, eh? I guess thats the way it goes...maybe do a little better tomorrow. Take it easy.

PS: Thanks for sending that web site Crash.

[crash]

Bendigo [Thurs]
6/9 Raeburn
8/9 Uncle Stuey

[lcm123]

hey crash...just got on at the tab and backed those two selections...so far

R6/9 Raeburn 3rd $1.90...had for the win only...hopefuly the next one should win. Hey just testing a new system and so far has a 58% strike rate...it picked...today at Bendigo R8 #6 PUNK'D...still under testing though...So I'll just see how it goes.

[crash]

I'm just watching at the moment.
Uncle Stuey [30/1] would have won if it had been 100m shorter.

[lcm123]

That Uncle Stuey would of been a good divi if it got up...would of made me very happy. That "Punkd" really tore my guts out. I thought he had the race, but seemed to get tired at the end...oh well..."I know I said I was just going to watch, but I did have something small on it...couldn't resist", ha ha.

[lcm123]

Re original rules

1. Selection must not be older than 5 years of age
2. Selection last time raced within 7 day's ago
3. Jockey riding selection must be in the top 5 on premiership table
4. Saturday meetings only

Sorry I couldn't post selections earlier, but had to work and had no access to computer.

Satuday 29/09/07

Adl
Race 2 #2 lost
Race 6 #6 won $2.70 (number 5 "GARNER" in this race was a also a selection, but L/scr scratching...was paying around $23)

Mornighton
Race 4 #10 won $2.70

Not very impressive dividends, but a win

[crash]

A wins a win!

[lcm123]

Yeah...Hopefuly get some better prices next week if a winner is struck.

[lcm123]

Hi all,

Tomorrow's (Monday 01/10/07)original rules selections:

Cheltenham

Race 3: #6 Ascoti

Belmont

Race 7 # 1:Interange and #12:Rosendo

No listing of jockeys riding these two horses in BELMONT, so check local paper for jocks riding and make sure that they are top 5 on premiership table. Heres the list of jocksys that should be riding either one or both.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%">W Pike </TD><TD class=texttab width="15%">91</TD><TD class=texttab>5.2 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%">P Harvey </TD><TD class=texttab width="15%">44.5</TD><TD class=texttab>3.8 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%">J Brown </TD><TD class=texttab width="15%">43</TD><TD class=texttab>7 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%">J Whiting </TD><TD class=texttab width="15%">42</TD><TD class=texttab>9.4 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%">S Parnham </TD><TD class=texttab width="15%">33</TD><TD class=texttab>9.8 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%"></TD><TD class=texttab width="15%"></TD><TD class=texttab></TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%"></TD><TD class=texttab width="15%"></TD><TD class=texttab></TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%"></TD><TD class=texttab width="15%"></TD><TD class=texttab></TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%"></TD><TD class=texttab width="15%"></TD><TD class=texttab></TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%"></TD><TD class=texttab width="15%"></TD><TD class=texttab></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[crash]

Cheltenham
Race 3: #6 Ascoti [ P. GATT ] 2nd. 2.50p

Belmont
Race 7 # 1:Interange [ C CHATFIELD(A) ] 2nd. 2.50p
Not in the top 5 riders.

Might be a place system in those rules [?]

[lcm123]

You could be rite there crash...might start backing them each way from now on. C CHATFIELD isn't in the top 5...is he? The web site i usualy get the premiership jocks from, don't list him as being in the top 5 of the state. This is the top 5 for the state of WA that they listed. Pethaps they didn't update it or something.

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%">W Pike </TD><TD class=texttab width="15%">91</TD><TD class=texttab>5.2 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%">P Harvey </TD><TD class=texttab width="15%">44.5</TD><TD class=texttab>3.8 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%">J Brown </TD><TD class=texttab width="15%">43</TD><TD class=texttab>7 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%">J Whiting </TD><TD class=texttab width="15%">42</TD><TD class=texttab>9.4 </TD></TR><TR><TD class=texttab width="33%">S Parnham </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[lcm123]

Hi all,

Today's (Saturday06/10/07) original rules selections:

Morphetville

Race 8 number 2: RUMARCO