Forming a market for a Greyhound race

[moeee]

The FORMULA to success.

There are numerous Statistics around that are extremely useful to predict winners.
But the Biggest,Mostest Useful Stat, is that 50% of races are won by the greyhound that is leading at the first split.
And when you include the 2nd ****** at the 1st split, the percentage becomes 70%.
I knew that, you may have even knew that, but how many actually realize the significance of it?
Or is it so difficult to assess who these 2 greyhounds are going to be, that this statistic is of no use.

I am going to try and have a go at it.
Here's an example using an actual race today.

Geelong, Tuesday 2nd October, 2007
Race 5 HOPPERS CROSSING SECURITY
Grade 5 457 Metres

I suppose the first step is to rank the greyhounds into an order of speed out of the traps.
This could be done by using the speed graphs supplied by THE WATCHDOG form guides.
And these graphs can be converted into a percentage using whatever formula you decide looks appropriate.

3 ARANDT'S TEARS 20.4%
1 JOSH'S WHISKY 8.8%
4 SISCO TRAIN 5.6%
2 TREW FOREVER 4.6%
5 ELIAS BALE 4.3%
6 BREAKAWAY THREAT 3.1%
8 ASSASSIN ADVICE 2%
7 CHYNNA SOLAIRE 1.1%

And suppose the other 50% winning chance is due to the ability of the Greyhound.
This could be assessed by averaging the best recent appropriate times.

5 ELIAS BALE 9.2%
7 CHYNNA SOLAIRE 8.5%
4 SISCO TRAIN 7.3%
6 BREAKAWAY THREAT 6.7%
1 JOSH'S WHISKY 5%
8 ASSASSIN ADVICE 4.7%
3 ARANDT'S TEARS 4.6%
2 TREW FOREVER 4.1%

Then the Final assessment would be the Total of the 2 percentages, plus a penalty needs to be applied for Box Draw.
And then simply convert the percentages to prices.
I came up with this.

1 $5.1 JOSH'S WHISKY
2 $10.8 TREW FOREVER
3 $5.1 ARANDT'S TEARS
4 $9.9 SISCO TRAIN
5 $7.9 ELIAS BALE
6 $11.0 BREAKAWAY THREAT
7 $9.7 CHYNNA SOLAIRE
8 $10.6 ASSASSIN ADVICE

Obviously a race to stay away from considering it is so open.
Hope this don't happen all the time because I spent half a day playing around with this idea. :(

But could be a good dividend in the Trifecta.
Here's what I'm taking.
3,1/3,1/Field for $10
3,1/Field/3,1 for $8
Field/3,1/3,1 for $7
3,1/Field/Field for $5

[crash]

SP prices [stab]:
1 JOSH'S WHISKY 2.60 1.10
2 TREW FOREVER 14.80 3.30
3 ARANDT'S TEARS 9.00 2.50
4 SISCO TRAIN 21.30 4.10
5 ELIAS BALE 7.10 1.80
6 BREAKAWAY THREAT 2.80 1.40
7 CHYNNA SOLAIRE 28.40 4.70
8 ASSASSIN ADVICE 21.70

1/5/8 Tri $214
You collect on 3,1/Field/Field for $5 [8.33% of $214]


Problem is working out odds. Their SP reality is going to be way-out of wack [as above] to what you work out. As a win bet, No 1 would have been well and truely unders.

Getting decent prices might be a problem, but I like your original idea though for working out winners!

[moeee]

That was a shocking result.
Partly because the chances I gave the dogs was not even close and partly because The White came out very slow compared to what The Watchdog thought it might.
But the good thing is I can go back and tweak a little here and there and will have another go at the afternoon races in town tomorrow.

[Crackone]

If you could get the dogs first split times you could work from there.

[waggamick]

Greyhound recorder used to do first section splits.

[moeee]

Here's another go at SANDOWN in Race 8 today.
Firstly the odds calculated based on current form and ability.

3 $3.8 CLASSY HAND
6 $3.9 GREAT ATTRACTOR
7 $6.0 SUPERIOR INC
1 $6.3 SCORPIO
5 $12.7 WHY NOT JACK
2 $22.9 LARJULEMI
4 $63.2 HOLIDAY ROAD
8 $66.9 ********** ROXON

And here's on speed out of the Boxes.

4 $5.5 HOLIDAY ROAD
5 $6.3 WHY NOT JACK
7 $7.7 SUPERIOR INC
6 $8.1 GREAT ATTRACTOR
1 $8.1 SCORPIO
3 $8.9 CLASSY HAND
8 $11.9 ********** ROXON
2 $11.9 LARJULEMI

Looking at the prices shows there are only 4 chances on Form.
But on speed out of the Boxes, they all have a chance.And when the 2 percentages are combined, the roughies are given too much chance of winning.
It seems the problem is too much weight is being placed on the speed out of the Boxes.
Even though 50% of the races are won by the leader, the ****** has to be good as well.

So here's a combined Market that has speed at 25% of the weighting rather than 50%.

3 $4.4 CLASSY HAND
6 $4.5 GREAT ATTRACTOR
7 $6.3 SUPERIOR INC
1 $6.7 SCORPIO
5 $10.1 WHY NOT JACK
4 $17.4 HOLIDAY ROAD
2 $18.6 LARJULEMI
8 $31.0 ********** ROXON

And finally the Market with Box Draw advantages included.

3 $4.5 CLASSY HAND
1 $4.6 SCORPIO
6 $5.4 GREAT ATTRACTOR
7 $7.1 SUPERIOR INC
5 $12.4 WHY NOT JACK
2 $15.4 LARJULEMI
4 $19.9 HOLIDAY ROAD
8 $26.6 ********** ROXON

Now our better performed dogs are at the top of the List as where they should be.

I'm going to take these Trifectas.
3,1,6/3,1,6,7/3,1,6,7 for $10
3,1,6,7 boxed for $5