Question for the pros

[lcm123]

Hi...Few years ago I had a go at trying to make $100 a day trying to back the first Fav to win at a meeting and stoping for the day once achieved my target ($100)...and it was going ok. I ran into sceary waters though on the seventh day of betting and almost loosing my whole bank ($2000) but the fav won and I was saved. Yes I Know that doubling is a bad news method, but I had to give it a go. Ended up making $700 at the end of the week, but decided to quit this method while I was ahead...ok, ok, I S#^t my self, on the last day of betting ha ha ha.

I'm just wondering. If anyone was to try this method, do you think it would be more wise to bet from meeting to meeting, till one of the FAV'S pop up or just pick one meeting to bet on and stick to it for the day?

I think if you had a pretty big bank it would be pretty hard to go bust, but I'm no pro and thats why I need your advise. So what do you reckon? Do you think it would be a little safer going from meeting to meeting, than picking one meeting for the day? Thanks for your help and I look forward to your response.

[partypooper]

I'm no pro either (though I still aspire) but one thing I do know is that if you back race to race and follow on next race day you will definitly lose all you have won, your bank and more besides (I talk from experience) there have been losing runs beyond belief, like 30+ broken by a dead heat 1-1 fav followed by another horror run etc.

The post would be too long to tell you all I know but here a few things:

(1) Back each selection as if it was 3-1 even if it is 1-1, when it wins at over 3-1 you win more than the target (to be deposited into a reserve fund), when it wins at less than 3-1, you don't get your target BUT it keeps the kettle boiling

(2) Bet the selection @ Top Fluc if it is pre-post fav or less than 4-1 pre-post, otherwise bet at Best of three totes/SP.

(3) Consider the following: bet week to week (or day to day if you are backing every day) in the folowing manner:

use 8 seperate banks, one for race 1, one for race 2, etc etc up to race 8 , so you bet race 1, next bet race 1 , next meeting etc etc.

(4) consider grouping bets, eg. group race 1&2 as one bet, race 3&4 as one bet etc etc.
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Good luck!

[lcm123]

understood partypooper...I'll give it a go on paper and see how I go...thanks for your help.http://forums.ozmium.com.au/images/icons/icon7.gif

[odericko]

the 1 thing ive noticed over the last 20 odd years is ...............wait 4 it..........STOP when you are in front i mean ******** me how hard is that.....

[Bhagwan]

Targeting one venue can be very dangerious.

The method below has shown to work very well.

Pair 2 venues together e.g. Flemington & Randwich.
Chase your selection race No.1 Flem to race No.1 Rand.

Stop at the first winner struck for each pair.
e.g. we would stop betting, once 1 winner gets up for the day out of the 2 venues.

Try & only bet if the price of ones Fav is $2.80+ at jump time otherwise no bet for that race.

Now do the same, pairing up other venues on the day.

You will see going over past records,that the $2.80+ fav is usually struck within 9 bets.
So make up a staking plan that starts afresh after 9 outs is struck.

By pairing the venues like this, there is less chance of the 2 venues being targeted , haveing a total wipe out, even if one of the 2venues strike a bad run.

Try & use Betfair or a Bookie so as to lock in ones dividend.



Cheers

[AngryPixie]

Sounds like an excellent way to make a really big hole in your bank to me. If only it was that easy.

[crash]

It might help to have a rule about when to stop when your behind too!

[Chrome Prince]

Move to the U.K.

Last night something like 75% of favourites won - that's over 6 meetings:(

[partypooper]

Chrome, I haven't lived there for 20 years, but I remember when I did the S/R of favs was surprisingly close to 30% since 1700 and something on the flat, and slightly higher over the jumps (irony) same deal, after betting tax was introduced a loss of 12-14% on turnover, (we can't get away from it can we?)

[Chrome Prince]

Partypooper,

I don't doubt the longterm figures, but there has been much talk about the last few months results of favourites. They have had a phenomenal run, even on the flat races. Over the last month alone close to 60% of them have won from my figures. Some days have had strike rates in the 75% range.

Much discussion as to why this is.

Some people are talking about the flat racing, but in fact the hurdle races have had an even higher strike rate :eek:

One day last week, eight favourites in a row saluted at all sorts of odds, even 6/1 favourites in big fields.

I copped a thrashing laying them.

Needless to say, I've been backing them and asking for top odds, and now starting to get it all back.

I'm sure things will return to normal variances, but it's been a phenomenal trend.

[partypooper]

Chrome, mmmm, sure sounds strange, though I can confirm that Hurdle races were always considered to be good for Favs, some of my "spectacular GUT wins" were on hurdle races Favs. But the greatest wins of all were in Amateur rider and/or Hunt races, where one in a particular jockey Lord (John) Oaksley reigned, (he really was a Lord) I once won a house "LITERALLY" on a horse he rode called The Bugler, oops! sorry reminising again, ah! those were the days!

[Privateer]

I was at a track called Fontwell Park (just outside Brighton) a couple of years ago - 7 jumps races and the 7 favourites won. Funny though that the Bookies didn't seem too upset?

The day itself was good although as I didn't want to drink warm beer thought I'd have rum and coke but when I realised the coke had not been refrigerated and they had no ice, I decided cups of tea were a better option!

[partypooper]

The beer in the UK is sold at "cellar" temperature, what you have to remember is that "cellar" temperature is usually bluddy cold!
most of the rails bookies there also have betting shops and or just lay off immediately to Ladbrokes or similar, so a few favs would have little effect.

[Chrome Prince]

I think jumps races just might be an allup playground ;)
It's not unheard of for the entire card to be won by favourites.
It's even more common for at least half the card to be won by favourites.