1 Horse race plan

[Bhagwan]

Heres a 1 horse per race plan that so far is doing well at level stakes.

RULES
1) Target races 1-4 only.

2) Target the top 2 UniTAB selections.

3) The selection is the horse that is closest to 99pts & less , no 100ptrs, these are deleted.
e.g. take 99pts over 100pts
e.g. take 99pts over 90 pts
e.g. take 90pts over 89pts

4) If a draw bet both same amount on both as if they are both single selections.
e.g. 2 units would be bet in such races .
Sometimes they are both 100ptrs , then bet both. This is the only time we support 100ptrs

5) Stop at the first win for each venue.
If you go any futher than one winner per meeting, the profit falls away.

Check out some past results.
It is showing a good level stakes profit so far betting 1/50th. of bank not reducing.
Increase bet once bank increases accordingly.

It takess dicipline to stop, if using plans like these and thats the main difference between amature & professional punters.

Cheers.

[darkydog2002]

Thanks BGAHWAN.

Cheers.
Darky

[thorns]

Got interested enough to go over the results for october so far. Heres what I got

OL- 204
Ret- 190.5 (93%POT)
Strike Rate of 24.5%
Av Divi- 3.81
Highest Winning Price $14.00 (Although a $24 shot did get up for a dead heat, so only payed $12 :( )

Those figures were using the Unitab dividends.

Do you have any longer term figures than those Bhagwan??

Cheers
Paul

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for your input Thorns,
there are some intersting figures there.

I notice the POT shown, should really read as ROI (Return on Investment)
The past figures vary from month to month.
I found it made a profit most months & nearly broke even in other months.

There was never a month which ripped the bank apart at any stage over 18 mounths.
Its average SR is around the 23-25%
The SR is certainly there, its the TAB dividends that is hard to control .
Better prices are usually acheived if using Betfair.

Use the free BetTrader Pro program if one wishes to get around the BetFair $6 min bet policy.
With this program, one can make bets as low as 1 cent if they wish.

Cheers.

[thorns]

Nice bit of profit today

OL-6
Ret- 10.6

[crash]

You would have lost on the 8 races the day before. Down 3.4 for the 2 days.

[Bhagwan]

Thur 25th result, up +3.40

It's the monthly figures that count, not 2 days.

[Beagle]

Bhagwan, good to hear from you again. I've missed your simple methods over the past few months. If this latest effort is sailing pretty close to break even at level stakes then I reckon a moderate progressive staking plan would kick it over the edge. I can hear the cries of shock and horror from certain members of the forum already but I am a believer in a mild staking plan that increases the outlay only slightly. One that I have had a bit of success with is the 3 bank method but it may not apply to this particular case . Any thoughts?

[odericko]

by top 2 selections i take that to mean race callers tips ..if so i made it up 5.9 in cluding nz ...works on all codes , ridiculously simple iam amazed i never spotted that one ..well done bags...

[Bhagwan]

Hi Beagle
Can you tell us about the 3 bank staking method .
I have found that the winner is usually struck within 9 bets.

Hi Odericko
The selections I was refering to was the UniTAB Radio TAB selections, which are, as you descibed them , race callers selections.
The initial top 2 selections could come from any other reliable source of course, prior to applying the points rule.

I find that these Radio TAB selections SR are just as good as anything else.

Cheers.

[partypooper]

Yes I second that, got to admit that it's an area that I wouldn't have considered if I'd realised that it was the racecallers tips beforehand.

I only found that out AFTER I'd done a fair bit of research, and I've got to concur with Bags,........ you (we) still have to put a bit of work into it, but it does seem to very consistent.

[Beagle]

The three bank method is for example 3 banks of $100. The first bank is bet at 1% of total, the second bank is 2% and the third is 3% (or whatever you decide) The first 3 bets are at $1 then the next bank comes in if you are not in profit and the next bet is $1 + $2 =$3 and continue for 3 bets or until in profit and then if needed add the 3rd bank and the next bet would be $6. and you stay at that level until you are in profit. If at any time you can transfer any profit from banks 2 and 3 to bank 1 and put that bank in profit then you have finished your progression and you start again from the beginning. I may not have explained this in the clearest manner but it really is a good safe method if you are getting close to break even at level stakes.

[Bhagwan]

Fri 26th Oct results.

Broke even
10 in ,10 out.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Beagle,
I know of that staking plan and it could work well .

There is a computerised spread sheet version of this called Mulibet by John Pringle, that does just that & the banks can be adjusted to kick in a different times .
e.g. 2nd bank to kick in after 5 outs & 3rd bank to kick in after 11 outs ect.

Heres a staking plan that seems to work well with these selections.
The idea is to start at the beginning as soon as a winner is struck within 9 bets, regardless of price.
1 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 = 55
Have 5 banks of 55 units = 275
This allows for 45 outs.

With this type of progression , the bets do not spiral out of control , which is the argument critics have about progressive betting.

I have found the winner usually comes in within 9 bets 86% of the time , betting in chronological order.


With all progressive betting methods , there should be a cut off point where one starts again , because if one does not , one will have to start again anyway once the money has run out.


Cheers.

[Beagle]

G'day Bhagwan. Ah, the old Fibonacci method raises its ugly head again. I personally find this staking plan a pain in the "a---". It can get you into too much trouble. You mentioned Multibet in your last post but where do you find it on the net? Might be worth a look. I found everything but what we were talking about.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Beagle,
The Fibonacci can be dangerious if used for extenderd runs .
Thats why I was suggesting a run of 9 only, before restarting.

That Muti bet staking plan can be found under Dominator Plan & Multi-Bet
or diyinvestments.com.au

The system results.
Sat 27th
27.00 out
24.10 in
-2.90 down.
Using Uni-TAB divs.

Stronger prices if using BetFair .

Cheers.

[mick]

Gday Bhagwan, I have the multibets spreadsheet,and Ithink it would work pretty well in conjunction with your staking plan, ie first bet 1 if that loses next 1 -1-2,and so on up to 21 , i would hope to find a winner before it got that high,the other thing Iwould suggest if winner pays under $2 Iwould treat it as aloss and move to the next bet in the sequence, hope this makes sense to you . Cheers

[Beagle]

The 3 bank method that I mentioned was from an old PPM magazine (October 1993) and was written by Richard Hartley Jnr. It was called the Back Up Bank Plan at that stage and was only using 2 banks but I fiddled with it a bit by adding another bank for more safety and by changing the percentages on the bets. It can be very useful if your selection method is up to scratch and can really kick on if you get a couple of winners in a row and you don't need to rely on long prices. For some reason I have kept the actual page from the magazine and there are a couple of other plans there as well which I will post later.

[partypooper]

Did someone mention Partypoopers Plum Movers?

[Beagle]

Sorry Partypooper but no. The Practical Punting Monthly magazine has had a pretty rough ride on this forum in the past but like any other racing publications it is only as good as the readers ability to use it as a guide and not as a bible.