Place system for testing?

[michaelg]

Here's a Place system which hopefully someone with an appropriate data bank might wish to have a look at:

The rules are:
1 ) Sole 100-pointer on Unitab rankings.
2 ) Unplaced at last two starts.

I have had a look at racing since last Saturday applying these rules and the results are:

Saturday 10 Nov.
Flemington R9 no.11 - $3.30
Townsville R1 no.5 - $2.30
Townsville R2 no.14 - $2.90
Geelong R8 no.3 - $0.00
Morphetville R3 no.6 - $1.80
Morphetville R5 no.8 - $2.10
Ascot R5 no.8 - $0.00
Ascot R9 no.4- $0.00

Sunday.
Donald R8 no.13 - $3.20
Donald R4 no.1 - $1.70
Cranbourne R2 no.7 - $1.50
Mt Barker R2 no.3 - $0.00
Mt Barker R3 no.4 - $0.00
Mt Barker R4 no.7 - $0.00
Devenport R1 no.4 - $1.90
Devenport R3 no.2 - $2.00
Devenport R4 no.3 - $2.60

Monday.
Casterton R7 no.1 - $1.80
Casterton R8 no.1 - $0.00

Tuesday
Seymour R4 no.13 - $1.70.

By my reckoning, there were 20 selections for 13 placegetters for a return (unitab divvies) of $28.80. Interestingly, there were 5 selections from W. Aust and all were unplaced.

There were also 5 winners paying a total of $25.20.

[Merriguy]

The way your brain works, Michael, never ceases to amaze me !! Talk about permutations and combinations.

Decided to try your idea on N.Z. races too (since last Friday in this case). The results were much the same: 6 places out of 10 races, with 3 winners!! UniTab: $13.00 return for the winners; $10.60 for the place.

Not as good for the place --- only 6% POT lol --- but such a small sample, of course (which has to be remembered).....still another possibility to make a dollar?!?!?

[Merriguy]

Bula Baby just won the first in N.Z. $9.90/$4.80 Unitab !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[King Cugat]

data entry for this..............Party this sounds like a job for you!

[michaelg]

Thanks, Merriguy for that info. As you say its only a small sample but its promising. The strike rate is surprising and the accuracy of Unitab's rankings (so far) is impressive. The high divvies are not really unexpected because not having placed at its last two starts, then punters generally might be unwilling to back them.

Today's selections, excluding N.Z. are:

Bendigo R7 no.15 - Delvene
Bendigo R10 no.9 - Saddler's Story
Balaklava R4 no.14 - Star Of The Stalls
Geraldton R1 no.6 - Hop On Pop
Geraldton R4 no.8 - Pro Dansk

Hopefully the W.A.(Geraldton) selections (and the others) will not bomb.

[Ade]

Keep it up. I am very interested.

[Merriguy]

I agree with your picks according to this idea, Michael. However the horse in Geraldton Race 1 is Classic Drop, not Hop on Pop.

The N.Z. qualifiers are (beside Bula Baby)

Race 7 No. 2 Woodbury Belle
Race 9 No. 9 Manten
Race 10 No. 14 Renzo (Linda Cropp riding!)

Have no idea about N.Z. races. Some long shots seem to get up regularly.

[michaelg]

Merriguy, you are right - the selection for Geraldton R1 is Classic Drop.

Aplogies. Hopefully Hop On Pop (number 8) will not win.

[crash]

Only 100 pointer in field -with no place last 2 starts
BENDIGO (VR)
7/15 Delvene
10/9 Saddler's story
PT MACQUARIE (NR)
1/4 TINTALDRA x
2/2 DUSTIN'S MATE x
BALAKLAVA (AR)
3/1 GET STITCHED
4/14 STAR OF THE STALLS
RICCARTON (ZR)
1/14 BULA BABY 9.90 4.80
7/2 WOODBURY BELLE
9/9 MANTEN

Left out WA

[nathanm-f]

Only 100 pointer in field -with no place last 2 starts
BENDIGO (VR)
7/15 Delvene
10/9 Saddler's story
PT MACQUARIE (NR)
1/4 TINTALDRA x
2/2 DUSTIN'S MATE x
BALAKLAVA (AR)
3/1 GET STITCHED
4/14 STAR OF THE STALLS
RICCARTON (ZR)
1/14 BULA BABY 9.90 4.80
7/2 WOODBURY BELLE
9/9 MANTEN

Left out WA
Woodburt belle is really low odds

[crash]

Oops, these 3 shouldn't be in it as they have only ever had 1 start and a spell.
PT MACQUARIE (NR)
1/4 TINTALDRA x
2/2 DUSTIN'S MATE x
BALAKLAVA (AR)
3/1 GET STITCHED
---------------------------------------
Should read:
Only 100 pointer in race -no place last 2 starts
BENDIGO (VR)
7/15 Delvene
10/9 Saddler's story
BALAKLAVA (AR)
4/14 STAR OF THE STALLS
RICCARTON (ZR) [slow track]
1/14 BULA BABY 9.90 4.80
7/2 WOODBURY BELLE unp.
9/9 MANTEN
--------------------------------------

Does the rules include any track condt.?

[nathanm-f]

Oops, these 3 shouldn't be in it as they have only ever had 1 start and a spell.
PT MACQUARIE (NR)
1/4 TINTALDRA x
2/2 DUSTIN'S MATE x
BALAKLAVA (AR)
3/1 GET STITCHED
---------------------------------------
Should read:
Only 100 pointer in race -no place last 2 starts
BENDIGO (VR)
7/15 Delvene
10/9 Saddler's story
BALAKLAVA (AR)
4/14 STAR OF THE STALLS
RICCARTON (ZR) [slow track]
1/14 BULA BABY 9.90 4.80
7/2 WOODBURY BELLE unp.
9/9 MANTEN
--------------------------------------

Does the rules include any track condt.?
************ just backed get stitched

[King Cugat]

Was there not another 1 in NZ around race 3 or 4. Number 12 i think

[King Cugat]

oh...yes. Was thinking of Miss Moet.....however.......unplaced last THREE starts is the criteria.


Apologies there

[crash]

Miss Moet ran 3rd. 2nd last start.

[crash]

'Get Stitched' [Balaklava r3/1] 2.40w 1.40p but was actually outside the rules as it has only had 1 start, for a 3rd too.

Good luck if you backed it anyway!

[King Cugat]

aahhhhh...good ol Robbo on another good thing getting backed in...... Dammed if you do dammed if you dont. He'll need a claim to carry the $$$ in his pockets either way.

[King Cugat]

Robbo on the 'hot pot' that went from $2.40 > $1.90 on track.....and he comes 'dead last'

Anyone want a betting system <<<< >>> lay him every time.

The stats are incredible.

[crash]

This system could be improved heaps by ignoring any runner that isn't starting below 9/1 [just check the bets so far]. Less runners but a lot less losers and wasted bets.

[Ade]

Whats the strike rate if we did that?

[crash]

Haven't a clue but it would have cut out a lot of silly bets today and just returned a profit. Only 1 place getter at 4.80 [just under 9/1 SP] from 6 bets.

[nathanm-f]

Robbo on the 'hot pot' that went from $2.40 > $1.90 on track.....and he comes 'dead last'

Anyone want a betting system <<<< >>> lay him every time.

The stats are incredible.
Who is "robbo"?

[Ade]

Over the years I have noticed that around 70% of winners come from the top 5 raters.

Does anyone know where we can get a list of these ratings on the internet for every race?

Since 70% is quite high, we should work from that.

[Bhagwan]

For online ratings.
Try the Neurals using ones favorite setting or factory setting or the 5 in pre-post market as shown on the same Neural site.

Also try Winnerinsix for their top 5 ratings.


Stats show the top 5 in a pre-post market has a higher SR than most ratings services out there.
Pre-post Approx 79%
Rating services approx 74%
I dont know why that should be.
Tested over 5 years of data.

SR is greater again if used on races with 12 runners & less.

Cheers.

[partypooper]

so we know that 30% of the pre-post favs win and show a level stakes loss,
therefore if we concentrate on 2nd to 5th fav (pre-post) we are on the winner 49% of the time,........... food for thought isn't it? especially at the track taking the BEST odds on offer for each of the 4

[King Cugat]

What is the reliability of pre post markets? who puts their name to the odds posted so early?

Put it this way the odds are shown in the paper aren't put up by a bookie who when lists these odds wont have the worry about the phone answering with a punter wanting to take the odds on offer. Its really a market based upon, what is most likely 1 or 2 peoples opinions.
Wouldnt there be more confidence in taking note of live flucs or opening price straight from the ring where the persons posting are legit.
Money speaks all languages and the difference between a newspaper editor slash market supplier is no where near what a large gathering of bookies and pro punter are willing to do with the market?
i often find the newspaper listed odds midweek anyway are way off what you find 5min before the race. Saturday odds supplied by tab fixed price are as close as you'll ever get.....and even then.........

[partypooper]

G'Day Kingo, yes you have a point, but this presumption is based entirely on the ACTUAL results of pre-post favs, I've done extensive research (over the years) and as Bags confirms it actually OUT-PERFORMS most so-called "professional" ratings, though it should be explained that some pre-post markets are produced by computer ratings. I don't think it matters much which source of pre-post markets you use as long as you use the same source all the time. "NEVER SWAP & CHANGE"

From my research NONE of the pre-post indications produces a profit on their own, i.e 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th pre-post favs, but when added to the BEST odds available for each the S/R is incredible and with careful staking you are right there amongst it!

[crash]

I think your on the right track Party. Quite few times here I've advocated that through form study, narrow down the winning chances to bet on to 2 or 3 and then bet the horse with the best odds available.
If we back our main choice only, we will often get it wrong. So why not back the best priced runner of our 2 or 3 winning chances? It will win just as often as our own choice for sure!

Likewise with pre-post runners, if a punter backed the best priced horse [or best two] from say the first 4 or 5 pre-post horses, a similar result as above would apply. The result of course is we are getting value as often as possible.

Another and even simpler method to achieve value betting, would be to follow your favorite tipster and back whichever of their 3 tips has the best bet value. It will win just as often as the other 2 will but your getting the best price every time. You might even turn a nice little profit!

[Bhagwan]

Hi King,
You sound cheesed off & suprised that there is a difference to the actual race day market. Why?
Just as there is a huge difference between the actual TAB market & Betfair .
Just look at the TAB Fav at 2 min till jump & compare to say Betfair , it is very common to see a 300% in price e.g. $2.90 TAB , $8.90 Betfair.

The pre-post was never designed to be a fixed price service.
But it can be if you enter the paper price that you want onto Betfair & see if it gets taken up with enough time till jump.


Yesterday for instance most of the TAB $2.80-3.80 horses could easily get
1-6 points more 2 min till jump.

I saw one that was $1.60 on the TAB & where $4.00 could be had on Betfair.

Most punters know that the pre-post market is just a numerical indication of chance , set to price between runners used a as point of reference between runners, when doing the form.
e.g. Two horses for possible consideration maybe $2.00 & the other $100
Which one of the 2 horses does one think has the strongest chance of getting up?

One can use it like a ratings service & bet the overs & delete the unders.



The pre-post market is usually set around the 160% mark , this is usually done to try & offset any possible scratchings.
As opposed to the TAB at 118.5% which includes rounding down, & approx 105% on betfair before 5% commission which can be deducted off the price.

The idea of using the pre-post market is looking at its position within that market & the top 5 within that market stats show a high percentage SR.

One could use the price in the pre-post market & bet all the horses in the top 5 or 6 that are paying more or less as indicated in the live market.

One will see that it is not uncommon to see a horse rated 5th in what ever pre-post market showing say $8.00 that ends up winning at $28.00

One thing that is interesting is that the live market Top 5 is around 79-80% as compared to the pre-post market of 78%.

Not bad for bloke who did the market sitting around in the kitchen in his underware , scratching himself...

Cheers.

[Try Try Again]

Bhagwan,

Perfect example of what you are saying about the pre-post market was Montechoro winning at at Flemington last Saturday. Saturday's Herald-Sun listed it at $8.50 (equal 3rd favourite) paying $21.20 SuperTab.

Regards

Try Try Again

[King Cugat]

Bags

No not cheesed off at all. My system doesnt involve pre post odds so its irrelivant to me anyway.
I was more or less saying that picking out 1/2/3/4/5 and using them in a system i.e. run indivdual accounts on each to see if there was a profitable margin for one of those is a waste of time. As you have already said the 3rd pick might be the 8th pick by the time they jump so the stats kept are no where near accurate.......so why bother?
Now if you agree with that then why even bother using pre post odds at all? An indicator yes, however its abit like relying on a petrol gauge (thats not computerised) that tells you your running out of petrol. Ok, its a guide but when the light comes on you wouldnt be taking a guess as to what town your actually going to run of petrol in are you......
I think a good system should eliminate the guess work and be soley based upon definate goings on or set stats not presumptions like pre post odds. Bookies and punters drive the market to where it should be upon jump time not the day before when a newspaper has to meet its deadline.

[michaelg]

Yesterday the method bombed - one placegetter of $1.60 (NSW) from 5 selections. If today it also crashes I'll have to go back to the drawing board.

Today's selections:
Ballina R3 no.7 - Cross Scene
Ballina R6 no.9 - Son Of A Brom
Ballina R7 no.1 - Bitenrun
Werribee R2 no.1 - Arezzo
Werribee R4 no.4 - Jetsetter
Werribee R5 no.2 - Jungle Echo
Northam R2 no.9 - Pilashaky.

If anyone's interested, there's one selection from N.Z.
R5 no.1 - Borrack.

[King Cugat]

Micheal
Been following both your threads. As far as this one goes i think you should keep at it even if you dont post. Finally the E.I. has reared its ugly head and the quality of horses racing has finally caught up with us......hence your lay thread doing better. I think the Melb carnival has hidden it all a bit too. Its been a very ordinary fortnight as far as trying anything different goes. I think if any system survives this period then its a goer.

Good Luck
Watching with interest.

[michaelg]

Hi, King Cugat.

To be honest, I've never really taken the E.I situation into account, as at the moment I'm more into systems than ratings but I'm sure it must have an effect on racing. Hopefully the person/people preparing the Unitab ratings would be aware of this and therefore factors it into their calcs.

Finally, the method struck a winner:
Werribee R4 no.4 - Jetsetter. I backed it on NSW TAb where it paid $13.50 and $3.10.

[King Cugat]

Good work mate on jetsetter

As ive posted before i have a system but really get a buzz seeing and hearing about new ideas and people following their ideas. Of course i am always looking for another one!

Keep it up!

>> E.I. >> refering to less consistent horses running. There will still nearly always be a 100 rater for your system but the quality of that 100 rater compared to normal racing environment 100 rater .....well theres a definate difference in quality & consistency if a comparisions are kept............ thats only....IMO of course.

[Ade]

How about...

1. Eliminate Pre-Post Favourite (Newspaper Guide Favourite)
2. Eliminate 100 rater (if next raters are 99,98,97).
3. Eliminated newspaper pro first selection.
3. Select a horse within the top 4 raters except the 100 (so one of the next best 3 to win).
4. Eliminate races with 7 or less runners.
5. Eliminated maiden races.

[crash]

Re original system here:

BALLINA
2/4 x
6/9 x
7/1, 3.50w 1.70p
WERRIBEE (VR)
2/1 x
4/4, 10.30w 2.60p
6/2 x
NORTHAM (PR)
2/9 x
AWAPUNI (ZR)
2/10, 1.70p
5/1, 1.70w 1.40p

Seems to be working better as a win system, rather than a place system.

[michaelg]

Hi, Crash.

When I tested the system with 20 races, place betting slightly outperformed win, and as I like place betting I was more interested in this.

However, when Merriguy looked at N.Z, his figures favoured win betting, and as you point out live betting has now also done the same. Anyway, if either proves profitable I'll be happy even though I have a (maybe unreasonable?) bias with Place solely because it has a higher strike rate.

[Ade]

How is the system long term? Does it give a long sustain profit?

Can it work with the greyhounds and the trots?

[michaelg]

Hi, Ade.

I don't know what the long-term results are - I only tested it with approx one week's racing, time will tell...

I had a look at the greyhounds using yesterday's racing. There were 10 selections for one winner of $4.60 and 5 placegetters for a return of $10.60. I also tested the trotting with the past 7 days racing and the results are: (I did not look at N.Z. and there were 2 potential selections that fell in one of their last 2 starts so I omitted them from the results).

21 selections:
7 winners for a return of $22.60 giving a profit of $1.60.
12 placegetters for a return of $19.30 for a loss of $1.70.

Not really discouraging but at least it shows the method might have promise. If it had crashed big-time I would have been worried about the gallopers, but now I'm a little more hopeful.

[crash]

Hi, Crash.

When I tested the system with 20 races, place betting slightly outperformed win, and as I like place betting I was more interested in this.

However, when Merriguy looked at N.Z, his figures favoured win betting, and as you point out live betting has now also done the same. Anyway, if either proves profitable I'll be happy even though I have a (maybe unreasonable?) bias with Place solely because it has a higher strike rate.

I can understand the place preference among many punters in any type of betting. As far as systems go though, they all seem to pay better for the win. Basically because most place payouts are not 1/3 win price, but more times than not, substantially less. $6w $2p is not 1/3 the place either. That's $5 profit for the win and $1 profit the place or 1/5th the win profit. I'm sure your aware of this but many punters are not.

Even when betting place based on price, it's very hard to ensure 1/3rd or better price, especially betting TAB as the prices change after the jump. In the end it all comes down to value and win price has more of it than place.

[Beagle]

Hello Michael Wasn't there another method put forward on this forum along the same lines as yours except you only backed the 100 pointers if they were placed last start? It actually has a strike rate pretty much the same as yours I think but I don't have a data base to check it out. Some one might like to have a look at it for me. Thanks all.

[michaelg]

Hi, Beagle.

I can't recall the exact rules but I think it also had to be a C, D or T winner. These were more than likely the fave or close to it, so even if the strike rate was basically the same then the divvies were less. I think it may have been successful for a period of time and then went backwards.

Crash, you are right, but it would be expected that the place divvy should more or less be 1/3 of the win divvy because the TAB take-out is identical for both types of bets. But comparing Unitab win and place divvies this is not the case - it favors win betting precisely as you say. Even that celebrated periodical we are all aware of (not Party's Plum Movers) that sells systems will proudly proclaim the POT on win betting, and sometimes also the POT on place betting. In these instances the POT on win can often be more than sixfold the Pot on place. One could easily come to the conclusion that something mischievous has infected the TABs calcs on place divvies.

[crash]

Some punters just like the place bet because they collect more often. If they bet smaller amounts for the win to allow for larger runs of outs, they would be a lot better off.

[michaelg]

It's not unusual for me to have a place-only bet just for that reason - more collects.

From yesterday's 7 selections there were 2 winners paying a total of $17.30 and $4.60 for the place. I use NSW TAB divvies because I bet with them. However, I do all my testing with Unitab because they are so much easier to navigate.

There have now been 2 winners from 12 races for a profit of $5.30, and 3 placegetters for a loss of $5.80.

Today's selections:
Moonee Valley R4 no.8 - Tahnee
Rocky R1 no.8 - Thy Spur
Rocky R7 no.5 - Impulsive Partners
Gundagai R3 no.11 - Vernis
Moe R6 no.3 - Spot The Line
Coffs R1 no.2 - Jestapatch
Coffs R4 no.16 - Rowlocks
Coffs R5 no.5 - Rainbow's View
Coffs R9 no.13 - Mystic Arch.

I have overlooked Darwin because NSW TAB are not betting on that venue.

[Beagle]

Yes Michael, I do remember that one now. It seems a lot of people got off that particular method pretty early but it is still getting a good number of winners. As in all methods concerning 100 pointers on Unitab, they will all have good runs at times.

[wesmip1]

Micheal.

Tested your system on my database and it shows a loss long term.

I don't frequent here much anymore so sorry it took so long to reply with the results.

Good luck.

[michaelg]

Hi, Wesmip1.

Thanks for the info although it's disappointing. Is it possible to check the results just for the past 7 days to see if they tally with mine? I'll continue with the method in the meantime, and hope...

Yesterday was not a bad day. 2 winners from 9 selections for a loss $0.80, and 4 placegetters for a profit of $4.90. Rocky R6 no.7 was almost a selection - the jockey fell at its second-last start, so even though it was unplaced at both its last starts I decided to omit it. Of course it won, paying $26.80 and $6.20.

There have now been 4 winners from 21 selections for a profit of $4.70, and 7 placegetters for a loss of $0.90.

Today's selections:
Townsville R3 no.6 - Corporate Cup
Wyong R7 no.10 - The Huckster
Wyong R8 no.8 - Mr Melov
Wyong R10 no.3 - Escudero
Sandown R7 no.1 - Masked Assassin
Gundagai R3 no.5 - Lauren Lou
Gundagai R6 no.3 - Xaartrix
Mornington R2 no.7 - Zivalee
Mornington R3 no.1 - Cat Prince
Mornington R4 no.4 - Prince Of Villains
Mornington R6 no.2 - Scar
Mornington R8 no.2 - Silver Service
Cheltenham R6 no.3 - Idalou
Ascot R3 no.9 - Midtime
Ascot R6 no.7 - Charlie Beau
Ascot R9 no.9 - Upgrade
Roma R3 no.8 - Pedro's Opinion
Roma R4 no.7 - King Corona

[michaelg]

A bad day yesterday - 2 winners from 18 selections for a loss of $12.90 and 7 placegetters for a loss of $3.90. If it does not improve today I'll have to think again about it.

Ararat R2 no.1 - Baylee Bliss
Ararat R9 no.15 - My Bid
Yarra Valley R1 no.8 - Shesha
Yarra Valley R3 no.10 - Soserio
Yarra Valley R7 no.2 - Manihi lad
Bunbury R2 no.7 - Buck The Odds
Bunbury R6 no.7 - Twice The Magic
Bunbury R8 no.3 - Captain Woodrow
Launceston R10 no.5 - Biological Boss
Strathalbyn R2 no.13 - Sivercitymiss.

[michaelg]

From yesterday's 10 selections there was one winner of $6.80.

There have now been 7 winners from 49 selections for a loss of $11.40. If I had included the selection on Friday that paid $26.80 the system would be in profit so 'll give it a little longer...

Today's selections:
Mackay R5 no.9 - Legal Jargon
Tatura R3 no.6 - Miserly
Tatura R6 no.3 - Outlander.