One Minute Ratings

[Gerry]

Moe Today 20/11/07.

Race 4 # 6

Race 6 # 5

Race 7 # 8

Race 8 # 4

Only started to have a look at these yesterday. Leaving out the Maiden races, came up with 4 selections, of which one saluted paying $7.50, so will monitor for a month or so (Vic. races only) and see how it goes.

Current outlay 4 units, return on flat bets 7.5 units, POT 3.5 units.

Gerry.

[Gerry]

Race 3 # 9

Race 4 # 8

Race 5 # 13

Race 6 # 9

Race 7 # 15

Race 8 # 7

Race 9 # 11

Race 10 # 10

Yesterday 4 races for 2 winners at $3.50 & $2.30 so situation to date is;

Outlay 8 units, return 13.3 units, POT 5.3 units or 66.25% POT.

Raining here ( SE Melbourne ). Send it down Hughie !

Have a good day,

Gerry

[Gerry]

Race 3 # 9 came out. No Bet.

Gerry

[Gerry]

Ah ! the best laid plans of mice & men etc. etc.....

Yesterday, we found only one winner ( Race 6 Golfyn, paid $4.50 ) from 7 races, hardly surprising since it rained all day and the track went from dead to slow to heavy. However, once more unto the fray.

Today again we have a heavy track so please yourself about these....

Race 4 # 4

Race 6 # 11

Race 7 # 9

Race 8 # 8

After Ballarat, the stats are;

Outlay 15 units, return 17.8 units, POT 2.8 units or 18.67%.

Gerry

[Gerry]

but hope you did please yourself and decide not to fall in to this heavy track caper.

Progressive result now;

outlay 19 units, return 17.8 units, POT -1.2 units or -6.3%.

See ya tomorra,

Gerry

[crash]

Stick to good and dead. Any heavier is a guessing game unless every runner has exposed form in those conditions [fat chance].

[Gerry]

I agree, as per my comments in the "talking thru the kick " thread about slow & heavy tracks.

I call this thread "One Minute Ratings" because that is about how long it takes to rate a race, and I am just doing it for a bit of fun to see how they go over a period of at least a month. May do better as a place proposition.

You will rarely see my much more involved ratings in "Gerry's Tips" when tracks are slow or heavy. In fact I am sweating on Sandown track condition as I have to do them Friday this week because I'm playing in a Charity golf day on Sat. morning early.

Gerry

[Gerry]

Slow track so up to you............

Race 6 # 8

Race 7 # 9

Race 8 # 13

Race 9 # 13

Will do the Valley for tonight a little later.

Gerry

[Gerry]

A dead track ( allegedly ).....

Race 1 # 7

Race 2 # 6

Race 3 # 5

Race 4 # 6

Race 6 # 6

Race 7 # 14

Race 8 # 8

Gerry

[Gerry]

I see our pick in the last is scratched, next best was # 4, so selection now:

Race 9 # 4.

Gerry

PS Will be posting "Gerry's Tips" for tomorrow very shortly.

[Gerry]

Race 3 # 8

race 4 # 3

Race 5 # 10

Race 6 # 9

Race 7 # 5

Race 8 # 8

Gerry

PS: Found one at the Valley ( at last ) paid alright too.

[Gerry]

After Kilmore today ( 4 sels ) and MV tonight ( 7 sels, 1 scratched ) the " One Minute Raters" return, thanks to a couple of nice winners at the Valley tonight, stands as follows after 5 days;

29 selections for 6 winners @ average VicTAB price of $5.90.

Outlay 29 units, return 35.5 units, POT 6.5 units or 22.41%.

Gerry

[Gerry]

Another nice winner today in race 7 Sandown, Sensational Toy paid $10.70.

Progressive result after 6 days, 35 selections for 7 winners now;

Outlay 35 units, return 46.2 units, POT 11.2 units or 32%. Not going too badly, 20% winners at VicTAB average divvy of $6.60.

Will post for Wodonga a.m. Sunday.

Gerry

[Gerry]

On a dead track, here's today's "One Minute Raters".

Race 4 # 1 or 10 ( equals )

Race 5 #10

Race 6 # 8

Race 7 # 7

Race 8 # 8

Race 9 # 11

Gerry

[Gerry]

so after Week 1, the stats are...

42 selections, 7 winners, POT 4.2 units, so a small profit on flat bets for the week.

See ya tomorra

Gerry

[Gerry]

are for desperates only !! Stony Creek on a ( according to the paper ) slow track !!

Anyway, here goes...

Race 4 # 3

Race 6 # 7

Race 7 # 7

Race 8 # 11 or 12 ( equals ).

Gerry

[Gerry]

One winner from four sels yesterday and only paid $2.50

Today the 1 minute raters are;

Race 5 # 9

Race 6 # 8

Race 7 # 1 or 2 ( equal )

Race 8 # 9

Gerry

[Gerry]

Werribee today;

Race 1 #7

Race 2 # 7

Race 3 # 7

Race 4 # 2

Race 5 # 6

Race 6 # 5

Race 7 # 11

Give 'em strength......

Gerry

[Gerry]

after scratchings, the following are the new tips;

race 4 # 3

Race 5 # 9

Race 6 # 4

Gerry

[Gerry]

meeting cancelled due to state of track. Deemed unsafe by the hoops.

Gerry

[Mr Quaddie]

race 7 devonport, there is a massive tip for 12 legs to heaven. i will put $500 on it to win. many people saying it will win by a mile today.

[Stix]

race 7 devonport, there is a massive tip for 12 legs to heaven. i will put $500 on it to win. many people saying it will win by a mile today.Good Luck...

[Mr Quaddie]

why is it that the horse who play up at the barrier always ends up winning

[Gerry]

I'll give you the top 4 to allow for scratchings;

Race 4; 3 2 8 1

Race 6; 9 7 6 15

Race 7; 4 or 6 (equals) 5 3

Race 8; 9 5 1 2

Gerry

[Gerry]

Sandown

Race 4 # 4 6 10 8

Race 5 # 12 14 15 8

Race 6 # 4 or 6 (equals) 8 5

Race 7 # 12 9 4 8

Hamilton

Race 2 # 3 1 2

Race 6 # 12 10 8 6

Race 7 # 11 3 4 12

Race 8 # 13 10 8 6

Gerry

Not a good week so far to state the bleeding obvious.

[Gerry]

couldn't get these out this morning due to urgent family business, and am only posting them tonight in case someone has been following them;

Moonee Valley

Race 4 # 8 5 3 2

Race 5 # 11 10 2 3

Race 6 # 12 17 2 7

Race 7 # 6 7 5 8

Race 8 # 12 9 10 11

Gerry

Back to normal tomorrow I hope !

[Gerry]

Geelong

Race 5 # 7 8 5 9

Race 6 # 9 11 5 8

Race 7 # 6 1 4 2

Race 8 # 6 11 3 2

Benalla

Race 5 # 8 10 7 9

Race 6 # 6 10 5 1

Race 7 # 7 6 4 11

Race 8 # 8 10 9 11

Race 9 # 5 6 8 9

Gerry

[Gerry]

Kyneton

Race 7; 12 4 7 10

Race 8; 10 12 6 7

Race 9; 7 9 5 3

Race 10; 8 6 2 4

Gerry

First 2 weeks have shown a small profit on level stakes.

[Gerry]

Showed a small profit again this week thanks to some good priced winners on Frid, Sat. & Sun.

38 sel's for the week, 8 winners for a total return of $39.30.

Progressive totals are;

Outlay 80 units, return 85.5 units, POT of 5.5 units or 6.9%.

18.75% winners at average VicTAB price of $5.70.

Gerry

[Gerry]

Moe

Race 5; 7 8 4 6

Race 6; 3 7 2 6

Race 7; 7 10 8 1

Race 8; 12 11 4 5

Early today 'cos I'm off to golf.

Gerry

[Gerry]

Race 1; 4 5 1 3

Race 4; 7 or 9 (equal) 6 5

Race 5; 11 8 9 6

Race 6; 5 7 9 8

Race 7; 4 2 7 3

Gerry

No good yesterday.

[Gerry]

nice results today.

Any comments ?

Gerry

[Gerry]

Race 4; 3 1 4/6/9

Race 5; 2 1 4 8

Race 6; 9 8 7 1/5

Race 7; 9 10 6 7

Race 8; 13 7 5 1

Gerry

[Gerry]

should read "Pakenham 7/12/2007"

Gerry

[Gerry]

Race 1; 5 6 2 7

Race 2; 6 3 4 2

Race 5; 5 or 6 then 7 10

Race 6; 10 11 12/13

Race 7; 13 11 9 10

Race 8; 9 10 5 3/4

Gerry

[Gerry]

Cranbourne

Race 5; 4 3 2 6

Race 6; 10 7 9 5

Race 7; 3 7 4 6

Race 8; 11 8 6 1

Traralgon

Race 3; 8 3 11 2

Race 4; 2 4 8 1

Race 5; 5 8 7 1

Race 6; 6 3 1 2

Race 7; 10 7 1 2

Race 8; 7 3 5 8

Gerry

[Gerry]

Terang

Race 6; 12 9 5 4

Race 7; 7 9 2 3

Race 8; 7 8 3 6

Race 9; 16 9 8 12

Gerry

[pengo]

Cranbourne

Race 5; 4 3 2 6

Race 6; 10 7 9 5

Race 7; 3 7 4 6

Race 8; 11 8 6 1

Traralgon

Race 3; 8 3 11 2

Race 4; 2 4 8 1

Race 5; 5 8 7 1

Race 6; 6 3 1 2

Race 7; 10 7 1 2

Race 8; 7 3 5 8

GerryI found it profitable to select only your first 3 tips for each race and place a win bet on all 3 horses.

Traralgon was the most profitable as a few horses paid over $5.

I will see how we go for today, using the same system!

Thanks

NB: Tho in my experiance systems that have been found to be profitable on the weekend don't tend to be for races during the week.

[pengo]

Monday 10/12/2007, Terang
Outlay: 120
Return: 110
Profit/Loss: 10

Bet Summary
Race 6: No Return
Race 7: Paid, 5.40 (Horse #7)
Race 8: No Return
Race 9: Paid, 5.60 (Horse #9)

Nb: Odd Horse 7 wins race 7, horse 9 wins race 9 :) spooky.
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[Gerry]

off to golf today, so not a lot of time to chat about options, but will soon.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch....

today at Kilmore;

Race 6; 6 7 4 2

Race 7: 9 10 4 2

Race 8; 7 4 2 1

Race 9; 11 9 6 5

Race 10; 13 10 14 11

Gerry

[Gerry]

Race 2; 4 6 9 3

Race 3; 5 4 2 6

Race 5; 8 10 9 6

Race 7; 10 9 7 6

Gerry

[Gerry]

Race 2; 4 7 5 3

Race 5; 8 10 7 13

Race 6; 6 4 3 8

Race 7; 8 9 1 2

Race 8; 9 8 2 11

Gerry

[Gerry]

2 top raters won yesterday, but what caught my eye was the fact that in two of the races we snagged the trifecta in top 3 order, one for about $170 and one for about $50. Anyway, upward & onward...

Race 5; 3 2 5 6

Race 7; 11 8 9 6

Race 8; 1 4 6 3

Race 9; 12 8 9 5

Gerry

[Gerry]

Race 3; 4 3/5 8

Race 4; 12 11 10 3

Race 6; 5 7 4 6

Race 7; 6 10 7 5

Race 8; 7 or 9 (equal) 10 11

Gerry

[pengo]

Hi gerry,

I've been tracking your tips over the week, unfortunately we will end the week (Mon-Fri) at a loss even tho we got trifecta (not that I would bet that; was just place or win betting).

Good luck in the future.

I'm currently seeing how I fair if you tip the top rated horse under 56.5kg in weight or tipping the top rated horse in the race if it is both the top rated and under 56.5kg.

thanks.

[Gerry]

Race 2; 6 2 7 4

Race 3; 6 5 3 4

Race 5; 11 5 8 7

Race 6; 12 10 7 9

Race 7; 11 9 3 8

Race 8; 5 6 8 3/4

Gerry

PS thanks for your interest Pengo; I haven't done the results for the last 2 weeks yet, but will do it after tomorrows races. Did you include M.Valley last night in this weeks return ?

[Gerry]

2 meetings to finish off the trial.

Ballarat

Race 5 3.05; 4 5 6 1

Race 6 3.43; 8 7 5 1

Race 7 4.20; 8 9 4 2

Race 8 4.55; 5 7 4 6

Race 9 5.34; 14 8 2 5

Tatura

Race 5 2.10; 9 7 3 8

Race 6 2.45; 9 4 3 1

Race 7 3.25; 6 7 4 2

Race 8 4.00; 6 5 7 4

Race 9 4.35; 4 10 3 2

Race 10 5.10; 10 4 14 7

Gerry

[pengo]

Nah I didn't bother to track it.

I'm doing better with the system I've come up with in selecting horses.

I seem to have a 50% SR at worse. Just gotta look into how you place the bets so that it gives you a return (e.g. place betting only, win betting only or each way, how much to outlay per bet type etc).

Here's is a link to my thread with the results, http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/showthread.php?t=16972

[Gerry]

if you are getting 50% strike rate you need only to average slightly better than evens to show a profit.

Each way betting is not a good proposition overall; for instance each way @ 4/1 returns only 5/2 for a win. To explain:

$1 e/w on a 4/1 winner returns $7, comprising $5 ( 4 + 1 ) for the win, and $2 ( 1 + 1 ) for the place, or a profit of $5 on your $2 outlay, or 5/2.

Gerry

[pengo]

Well after doing the numbers based on my results from last week, I get a better return if I do 10 E/W. Even better still if I just do 20 for WIN and don't place bet. Tho more results the better, so won't really have a better idea on which way to go for a few weeks yet. Like for instance, at moonee value I got 4 winners (placing 1st) in a row. So that makes a big differance to the end of week profit/loss value. I want to wait to see when I don't have such success how my strategy stacks up.

Still I'm confident I'm onto something with my strategy as I picked only one race yesterday and the horse placed 1st. Looking at my results so far, when a horse does place for me more often than not it is 1st place (instead of 2nd or 3rd).

[Gerry]

One minute ratings for Moonee Valley & Doomben Quaddie races ( both 5 6 7 8 on Vic TAB ).

MV. 2 4 11 8---12 9 2 10---12 10 8 7---8 4 7 11

Doomben. 11 4 9 12---12 10 9 11---8 9 4 7---4 9 11 3

Gerry

[Gerry]

Just another day to have a few flexi quaddies at Sandown, races 5 6 7 8.

12 5 & 10,11, or 13 --- 14 6 10 2 --- 9 7 3 & 1 or 2 --- 4 10 11 13.

GR

Think I'll go 12---14 6 10---9 7 3---4 10 11; 12 5---14---9 7 3---4 10 11; 12 5---14 6 10---9---4 10 11; and 12 5---14 6 10---9 7 3---5.