UK Favourites

[Chrome Prince]

O.K. it's time to ask some serious questions now.
I've been putting up with this for months.

What's the deal with these U.K. favourites this year?

They are winning somewhere between 50% and 75% of races.
I thought this was just temporary, but now months later and it doesn't seem like letting up.

A purple patch of 11 months cannot be explained, last year was fantastic they won at the 30% expected rate, but all of a sudden - this.

Either the quality of opposition is poor or something sinister is going on.

Here's what I mean and this is going on almost every day...

14/1
5/6F
22/1
5/2F
15/8F
11/2
7/4
5/1
9/2
11/4F
2/1F
7/2
5/4F
8/15F
25/1
9/1

As 7 from 16 bookie favourites is 43%, the percentage of Betfair favourites makes it around 60%.

I think it's time to just back these ************s and rake it in!

BUT the last time I did this, was the one day that only 2 out of 22 races won :(

[Bhagwan]

The trick to chasing favs is to have a cut off of 9 outs in a row for ones staking plan, then start again at the beginning once a winner is struck or 9 outs in a row is struck..

Target all that are $2.80+,anything under this amount, no-bet race.

If 9 outs in a row does hit, stop betting , then re-start once any Fav gets up to win.

This helps a lot in trying to avoid being part of any long run of outs which can & does occure.


I have been doing well with them using my staking plan.

Cheers.

[jfc]

As 7 from 16 bookie favourites is 43%, the percentage of Betfair favourites makes it around 60%.

:(

Betfair favourites should typically be the same as Bookie favourites.
So the strike rate for both should be near identical.

[AngryPixie]

Chrome

Have you read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable". (http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1196295603&sr=8-1) I found it a sometimes laborious and over wordy read in which the author presents his arguments against the use of the Bell Curve as a useful statistical tool. If you sift through it Taleb's "Black Swan's" (because until Australia was discovered all swan's were white) may go some way to explaining what you've experienced. It may not too and perhaps I should go back to my navel gazing, but the book certainly does make you think.

Here's an interesting review I just stumbled across.

http://opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110009979

[Chrome Prince]

Betfair favourites should typically be the same as Bookie favourites.
So the strike rate for both should be near identical.

No they aren't, three of the non-bookie favourites ended up being Betfair favourites.
Typically they are the same, but you can have quite a few instances of a 7/4 and 7/2 being reversed on the exchange.
Betfair favourites have a higher strike rate than bookie or tote favourites.

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome

Have you read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable". (http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1196295603&sr=8-1) I found it a sometimes laborious and over wordy read in which the author presents his arguments against the use of the Bell Curve as a useful statistical tool. If you sift through it Taleb's "Black Swan's" (because until Australia was discovered all swan's were white) may go some way to explaining what you've experienced. It may not too and perhaps I should go back to my navel gazing, but the book certainly does make you think.

Here's an interesting review I just stumbled across.

http://opinionjournal.com/la/?id=110009979

Interesting read.

What is strange is that I had thought it was something to do with the quality of the horses on the flat, but we are now in the jumps season and it's the same.
The UK forums abound with ideas as to why it is, they've not seen anything like it.
Sure as eggs it will turn around, just have to hang in and reduce lay liability.

...but 11 months is a big ask in anyone's language ;)

I can hang in there, but what about the bag men?

I'm sure they'd have very unbalanced books and be taking a beating.

[Chrome Prince]

And the beat rolls on...

four favourites out of seven races.
57% win strike rate.

I'm jumping in the Tardis and going back to 31/12/2006, loading up the Betfair account to back every favourite in the UK.

[Chrome Prince]

5 out of 8 now

62.50% strike rate

This isn't funny anymore.

[Chrome Prince]

7 out of 11

63.63% win strike rate

:eek:

[Chrome Prince]

8 from 14

57.14% win strike rate.

time for bed.

[Bhagwan]

I'm laughing my butt off here with the favs getting up for me & some at unbelievable good prices.

What might be a concern is if the stats are the same year in year out of Favs winning , does that mean there should be a time where we should expect a month where only 5-10% Favs win so that the overall stats hold true.

The only time I have seen anything like this was at Harlod Park trots many years ago where the Favs won 70% of races over a 10 week period & they were realy short priced as one would imagin, but with these UK horses they are still at good prices, beats me how a bookie makes any money unless his turnover is massive & is able to balance the book with punters betting against the Fav.

I was reading that one of the good things about the punters who do bet trading is that they help keep the market percentage close as possible to the 100% mark.

Cheers.

[AngryPixie]

Chrome

What ideas/explanations have emerged on some of the other forums?

[Mark]

Interesting read that Pixie.
Things like this always remind of when a teacher asked the class, "what is the average number of arms or legs that people have". Just about all would go for 2, which of course is wrong. In fact, the vast majority of us have more than the average as far as limbs go.

As for the unusual run of favourites, I would say to Chrome and others, get some sleep and go back in a month to see if it has turned. And the UK bookies, I wouldn't worry about them either, they have had huge margins for years, and if they are not ploughing most of their turnover back through BF at better odds, then more fool them.