Son of Sam Simple 7 Lay System

[Bhagwan]

Heres a devilishly fun lay selection plan that has shown a very high success rate so far.
Works for Horses, Dogs,Trots & Billy Goat racers.

SELECTION PLAN
.Target all races where there is a TAB No.7 running
If there is not a No.7 selection running, it becomes a no-bet race.

.Selection must of had a race where it ran 7th or worse at any of its prviouse 3 starts.

BET TO PRICE MONEY MANAGEMENT PLAN
Lay bet to price as to a fixed liability of 5% of bank.
e.g. Bank 500 @ 5% = $25 liability per race divided by selection's fractional odds.
e.g. $25 / 8/1 = $3.13 O/L
(8/1 fractional odds = $9.00)

.Use the Free Bet Trader Pro program to place bets under $6.00 with Betfair.

No form study & all bet liability is under control using betting plan as mentioned above.

It is strongly recommended not to attempt this, betting the same fixed dollar amount on all selections, one could get seriously burnt with just one outsider getting up against you..
e.g. if the selection is say 50/1 ($51) at $6 O/L & it wins instead of loosing you are up for $300 pay out liability.

Using above betting to price money management plan , the liability would only be $25 trying to win 50c ,which is also our O/L.

Remember to try & have fun with your punting... if its not...
Ring the punters help line & seek professional advice from people with white coats on ...
But dont ring me & bum me out, I hate that I do...

Cheers.

[baco60]

Bhagwan,
You do believe in abraca dabra don't you? This is unusual coming from you to advocate something daft as this.
Things must be bad!

[Bhagwan]

Hi Baco,
Does that mean you like it?
Your right , I'm sorry.
I was going to give an indepth selection process using sectional times over different distances but I could sence peoples eyes start glazing over.
So I thought we would look at something simple.

I guess one could add some of there own favorite filters to try & make it stronger.

Now lets see your develishly clever replacement idea, my friend.

Cheers

[Bhagwan]

Heres an observation that has a very high success rate.
There are whole meetings where not one of them gets up.

.Target No.7 if it is in barrier 9+

.Lay betting to price.

Cheers.

[Bhagwan]

Results for Wed 5th Dec

Targeting TAB No.7 only from Barrier 9+

Betting to price.

There were 16 from 16 successes.

8 of the 16 were $10 & under.

One may like to put a max acceptable price one may wish work to
e.g. $10

[Mark]

Or you could try something like this.

Saturday races, lay every runner that has won less than 1 in 6, provided they have had at least 10 starts, and horses that are still maidens after 10 starts or more.

Last Saturday 3 winners from 77 runners. They average around 1 in 16.
(previous Saturday saw Satin Robes as a lay)

Weekdays, lay runners with a strike rate of 1 in 10 or worse. Same rules as above apply for maidens.

Yesterday 1 winner from 56 runners, and it was 5/1. Again, they average around 1 in 16.

[Mark]

So today's losers are..........

SC2 13
SC3 1,2,7,8
SC4 2,5
SC5 1,7,8,9
SC6 2,8,9,11,14
SC7 9,12,13,14

M2 1,2,4
M3 4
M5 2,4,5,6,7,8,9,11,12,13
M6 6,10
M7 4,10,12

All care, no responsibility, etc

[AngryPixie]

SC2 13
SC3 1,8
SC5 8
SC6 14
SC7 12,13

M5 6,7,9


Mark

We concur on these.

I'll throw these into the pot

SC2 12
SC4 1
SC7 7

M3 1

Here's hoping :)

[Bhagwan]

Thanks for your observations & input Mark.


Those stats look very interesting.

Lets see if one can make the wheels fall off .

A number will be at very high prices which is to be expected & this is where betting to price can be seen to advantage, without the fear of being serverely burnt if say a 50/1 shot decides to get up which may happen one day, maybe several on the one day, that's punting. So betting to price will reduce a savaging like this, to a bare minimum.

It might also be an idea to bet to a max of approx $16 if one is choosing to bet 0.5% of bank, flat amounts on all selections, seeing that its win SR is approx 1 in 16 = 6%
Which means we should have a 94% Lay seccess rate.

Well done again Mark.

Cheers.

[Merriguy]

Mark and Pixie,

But how do you get on? When the SC3 started, No. 8 was a lay at something like 100. No chance of being matched!?!?

And, Mark, neither had 10 starts (min requirement for a maiden?).

[AngryPixie]

SC3 1,2,7,8 all had 10 starts or more.

I combined 1 and 8 with 3 and 5 in a Dutch Lay.

[Merriguy]

You've lost me a bit there, mate. I was going on Unitab's "form" which says that 1 had had 8 starts, 8 had had only 4. Probably not accurate???

But what is a Dutch lay. Understand an ordinary lay, and what Dutching is (or thought I did!).

[AngryPixie]

The Virtual Formguide had 10 starts or more.

A Dutch Lay is basically the same as a Dutch Back. As I write this for a $1 stake I can lay SC4 A Little Rusty for $0.77 @ 9.6, and Clews Place for $0.23 @ 32. A combined Book value of 13.5%. So I've now got my $1 on a 7.4 chance. More risk but spread out a bit. It's just something I'm fooling around with at the moment. Fairbot software does it all for me ;)

[Merriguy]

Thanks.......................I think. Give me some time with it http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/confused.gif

[AngryPixie]

You're right that was a rubbish explanation and this will be no better but any way

I lay A Little Rusty for 0.77 cents @ 9.6 = Liability $6.62
I lay Clews Place for 0.23 cents @ 32 = Liability $7.13

If neither win I win my $1 stake

If A Little Rusty wins I lose $6.62 minus 0.23 = $6.39
if Clews Place wins I lose $7.13 minus 0.77 = $6.36

So for my $1 my maximum liability is $6.39 (a $7.40 or there abouts chance)

[Merriguy]

Boy, so do I, thanks.

[AngryPixie]

Yes confused everybody and myself double but a simplified example above. As I say, more risk in so far as the number of runners, but reduced liability should one of them win. It does let you lay some of those long ones, and I still keep to the 9.09% ($11) minimum book value I set myself ages ago. Just playing with it really though.

[Bhagwan]

Heres a tip to getting lay bets matched .

Submit your lay bet at one tick higher than the win price shown & if anyone takes up the win price , you will be first cab off the rank to getting ones lay bet matched.

If the win prices blows out , one will have to chase the win price at one tick higher until the lay bet finally gets matched.

If the win price reducers one may wish to chase the price down.

Many of the shown lay prices look crazy, but if one follows the above procedure one will get matched everytime the shown win price gets taken up.

Of course, if no one takes up the shown win bet (Blue) the lay bet (Pink) wont be matched.

e.g. If the win price is $16 & the lay price shown is $100 we would submit our lay bet at one tick higher than $16 .

If someone takes up some of the $16 win , your bet will now be matched because your are offering a fraction more than what is being requested & therefore first cab off the rank to being matched.

Cheers

[Mark]

Merri

UTB only has runs for starts at TAB meetings. Never trust their form guide.

I make it 1 winner from 39 for today @ 7.20, and that was in the race where every runner but one was picked. 13 of the lays were under 9/1.

Not saying this is the holy grail, but it helps. If I work a race, I'll always put these in for more than usual.

[Bhagwan]

Very impressive Mark.

Well done.

Cheers.

[AngryPixie]

Nice share Mark. Looks busy today!

We have consensis on these. I've not done scratchings yet:

COFF04 9,13
COFF05 13,14
COFF07 9
M_V_01 4
M_V_03 2
M_V_04 7,15
M_V_05 8,10
M_V_07 13
PAK_04 6,8,9,10
PAK_05 5,6,7,8,10
PAK_07 11
PAK_08 6,7,9,15,16
MDGE02 1,6
MDGE03 9
MDGE07 7,11
MDGE08 13
MT_G03 4,6
MT_G04 3
MT_G05 8,9
MT_G06 7,11
MT_G07 8,12
MT_G08 1,2

Thanks.

[Mark]

My day off Pixie.
I'll put up tomorrow's, time permitting.

[AngryPixie]

... that wasn't too bad. A 7.2 unit profit for the day. :)

BAT prices were used for those listed below. Anything not listed here from above was scratched.

COFF04 9,13 ($7.20) ... LOST +$0.95
COFF05 13,14 ($25.64) ... TOO LONG
COFF07 9 ($13.50) ... TOO LONG
M_V_01 4 ($12.00) ... TOO LONG
M_V_03 2 ($5.50) ... LOST +$0.95
M_V_04 7 ($17.51) ... TOO LONG
M_V_05 8,10 ($64.10) ... TOO LONG
PAK_04 6 ($8.60) ... LOST +$0.95
PAK_04 8,9,10 ($7.00) ... LOST +$0.95
PAK_05 6,7 ($8.97) ... LOST +$0.95
PAK_05 5,9 ($10.10) ... LOST +$0.95
PAK_07 11 ($25.00) ... TOO LONG
PAK_08 6,9,15,16 ($5.20) ... WON -$4.20
MDGE02 1 ($200.00) ... TOO LONG
MDGE03 9 ($4.70) ... LOST +$0.95
MDGE07 7,11 ($5.53) ... LOST +$0.95
MDGE08 13 ($55.00) ... TOO LONG
MT_G03 4,6 ($10.51) ... LOST +$0.95
MT_G04 3 ($16.00) ... TOO LONG
MT_G05 8,9 ($5.11) ... LOST +$0.95
MT_G06 7,11 ($2.70) ... LOST +$0.95
MT_G07 8,12 ($29.06) ... TOO LONG
MT_G08 1,2 ($4.92) ... LOST +$0.95

[Merriguy]

Well done, Pixie. Have just seen your results.

I can see I will have to seriously study the explanations you gave above..... actually the idea is not so difficult to comprehend really. Just takes a bit of application of the old grey cells :) .

When you have more than two contendrers (simple example above), you do the same thing pro rata I presume?

[AngryPixie]

Merri

What I'm trying to do is get as many $11 or under selections per race as possible, whether they be single selections, or logical selections of multiple runners. In practice though this takes a fair bit of effort, particularly when I'm running my normal lay method at the same time.

Mark has given everybody a good leg up there. Overlay your lay method on top as I did above and things could get pretty interesting.

Have a win today.

[Merriguy]

Thanks, mate.

[Mark]

Today's losers.

SR2 11
SR3 9,12
SR4 1,3,6,9,12
SR5 3,4,17
SR6 7,8,11,12
SR7 6,7,9
SR8 7,8

MR1 3,5,6
MR2 1,5,6
MR5 7,8
MR6 3,7,8,10,13
MR7 1,2,5,7,11
MR8 12

BR3 12,17,18
BR4 8,9,12
BR5 13
BR6 10,15
BR7 2,5,6,12,14
BR8 1,2,5,7,12,14,16,17

AR3 3,4,6,7,8
AR4 3,5,6,7,8
AR5 2,4,5,6,7,8
AR6 2,5,9,13,15
AR7 6,7,13

[AngryPixie]

And the overlay of my lay selections. Look's a harder day price wise. :(

SR2 11
SR4 12
SR5 3,4,17
SR7 7

MR5 8

BR3 17,18
BR8 17

AR3 8
AR4 3
AR6 15

[Mark]

SR6 12..........is not a lay, meant to type 13, which is scratched.

[Mark]

3 accidents today from 83.

[Bhagwan]

Results for Sat 9th Dec

For the TAB No.7 only.
Barrier 9+
$16.00 & less.
Betting .5% of bank on all. e.g. Ratio 1:200

Had a 100% success rate.

Well done again Mark.
Well done Pixie.

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Bhagwan, what is the reason for targeting TAB number 7? Do you look at all types of races including Set Weights?

Mark, I have been using something similar to your Strike Rate method. I will not lay any horse that has a 10% or higher strike rate and I also consider the Place strike rate, the barrier draw and DFS rankings. I've found that the lower Class races are the most difficult because many of the fancied horses have a less then 10% s/rate, but when combining the aforementioned three factors I have not yet (fingers crossed) encountered an accident.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Michaelg
The reason for targeting TAB No.7 is that it has a statistical SR of 5.4% Based on 50,000 Aust. races
This equates to 1 winner in 18.5 races
Or 94.6% Lay success rate.
Most races have a No.7
Many races have runners under $20
Class of race is ignored totally.

This now gives us a volumn from which to base ones favorite filters around.

Sun 9th result only had 1 accident, TAB 7 & Barrier 9+ & $16.00 <.

TAB No. STATS for wins
1---31%
2---20.5
3---12.2
4---8.0
5---7.3
6---5.1
7---4.8
8---3.8
9---3.4
10--1.5
11 ect--2.4%

Cheers.

[michaelg]

Thanks, Bhagwan, that makes sense.

I presume that the 50,000 races all had 7-plus runners because the stats for numbers 1 to 11 shows no.7 having a slightly lesser strike rate of 4.8%?

[Mark]

Monday's losers.

TR1 1,5
TR2 1,10,13
TR3 12
TR5 1,4,6,13
TR6 6,7,15,17
TR7 9,10,11
TR8 1,12,13,14,15
TR9 1,13,14,16

QR1 3,4,5,8,11
QR2 6,7,8
QR3 2
QR4 3
QR5 6,7,9,10,11
QR6 2,6,11,14,15,16,17
QR7 9

[AngryPixie]

Mark

Great job. Thanks again.

[Mark]

1 accident from 49, @ 2.68 fav.
Several of the beaten brigade were well in the markets.
These things usually fall in a hole when made public, but not this time?
I do hope someone's benefitting from this.

[stugots]

You've lost me a bit there, mate. I was going on Unitab's "form" which says that 1 had had 8 starts, 8 had had only 4. Probably not accurate???


merriguy, someone may have already let you know but to access unitabs more detailed formguide (but still basic - last 3 starts but at least has the correct number of starts etc) you need to have a active betting account account & logon via netbet express.

doing so creates a cookie that allows you access to the form guide for 7 days

[Bhagwan]

Well done again Mark.

Cheers.

[Merriguy]

Thanks for that, Stugots. I will have a look at it tomorrow. I signed up with an account years ago; but (blush, blush) tend to use the site only for the fields, etc. that I find are most easily accessed on that site.

Have you (and Mark, Bhagwan, and others) had much of a look at the new Betfair Australian Racing site?

Haven't fathomed out how to use much of it yet (and don't know where to find an explanation!); but it gives much of the info upon which Mark, as I understand things, (especially from his "heads up" earlier in this thread) bases his lay tips on --- the ones he gives in this forum. It is presumably a more accurate re-telling of what has happened to each of the runners in the past. So that would solve the problem of which we are speaking. Your suggestion is appreciated.

By the way, Mark, I for one am certainly enjoying them! Thank you. However, despite Pixie's brave attempt to explain things I'm still at a loss to see how you can get layed on those outsiders that make up a big proportion of your successful lays.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Merriguy,
What Pixie is tying to do, is bet his say, 2 selections as one bet by spreading the outlay for that race over say 2 horses at their respective prices, staggering the bets..
This is done to reduce the exposure of liability on the race, should a high priced selection win instead of loosing.

He is Dutch Lay betting the selections, so as to reduce his exposed liability on the races .
If all of the selections fall over, he collects .
If say 1 of the gets up to win , he does not get hit so hard , as if he would of have, if he had placed 2 individual bets on the same race.

The general idea can work well.

Cheers.

[Mark]

"Have you (and Mark, Bhagwan, and others) had much of a look at the new Betfair Australian Racing site?"

Don't know about any new site Merriguy.


With laying big prices you have to set yourself a limit on how high you will go. Having said that, don't be too rigid as every race is different.


Today's no hopers.

MR1 5,6,7
MR2 1,3,5
MR4 2,3
MR5 1,9
MR6 6,11,12
MR7 5,8,13

KR1 5
KR2 3,5
KR5 5
KR6 3,8
KR7 4,6,7,8,11,12,13
KR8 9,10
KR9 1,2,3,5,6,8,9,11,12
KR10 10,13,14

[Merriguy]

Thanks, Bhagwan, a neat and concise explanation. I will keep working on it!

Mark, the site I refer to is:

http://racing.betfair.com.au/sports-racing/

[AngryPixie]

Mark

I don't show any selections for MUSW02. The 1 is scratched (but only had 4 starts anyway), 3 is a first starter and 5 has only had one start. Don't Maidens need at least 10 starts?

[Mark]

Sorry Pixie, MR2 should read MR3.
And even then I realise I haven't explained myself clearly. I use 1:10 or less for midweek, except for Open class races where I use less than 1:6 as I do for Saturday races.

[AngryPixie]

CAUL02 5
CAUL04 11
CAUL05 1,4,13
CAUL06 4
MKAY01 1,5,6
MKAY02 2,3,4,5,6,7
MKAY03 8,10,11,12
MKAY04 2,4,7,8,9
MKAY05 9
MKAY07 4,5,7,9,10,12
MKAY08 2,11
SBYN02 1,3,9
SBYN03 2,3
SBYN04 4,5,6,7
SBYN05 2,6,7,8
SBYN06 1,2,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,13
SBYN07 1,5,7,9,10,13,14,16
SBYN08 6,13

[AngryPixie]

He is Dutch Lay betting the selections, so as to reduce his exposed liability on the races .

Thanks Bhagwan, yes that's it in a nutshell.

The maths for laying to a fixed stake are quite simple really. Say we're interested in "Dutching" these horses to lose using a fixed stake of $50.

HORSE A: $ 3.00
HORSE B: $ 6.00
HORSE C: $15.00

For each horse divide 100 by it's price to get the win probablility implied by its odds.

HORSE A: 100/3 = 33.33%
HORSE B: 100/6 = 16.67%
HORSE C: 100/15 = 6.67%

Add the probabilities together to get our book value.

33.33% + 16.67% + 6.67% = 56.67%

Divide the win probability of each horse by the book value.

HORSE A: 33.33/56.67 = 0.5881
HORSE B: 16.67/56.67 = 0.2941
HORSE C: 6.67/56.67 = 0.1176

To determine the stake that should be placed on each horse, we multiply the figure above by the total stake of $50.

HORSE A: 0.5881 * 50 = $29.41
HORSE B: 0.2941 * 50 = $14.71
HORSE C: 0.1176 * 50 = $ 5.88

If HORSE A wins we lose (2*29.41)-14.71-5.88 = $38.23
If HORSE B wins we lose (5*14.71)-29.41-5.88 = $38.26
If HORSE C wins we lose (14*5.88)-29.41-14.71 = $38.20

If none of the three win, we win our stake of $50.

[Bhagwan]

Here is another Lay bet selection plan that seems to work very well.

LS 5th or Worse Plan.
.Target the 1st & 2nd Betfair Favs at say 1-2 min till jump

.Target the selection of the 2 favs that ran 5th or worse LS.
(Treat X & first career start, as a 4th.)

.If a draw , take the lowest price of the 2 selections.

.Max price accepteable is $5.50 , try not to go past this.

.Bet to price as mentioned in previouse posts.


Go over some past TAB results & check out its SR , to see if it is acceptable to your betting style before betting any real money of your own.

Cheers.