Question about TheTote.com.au form page on horses

[pengo]

Hey guys

Just wondering if someone can explain to me how to understand the "Rtng" (rating?) column for a horses form. Basically on thetote.com.au website when you click on a horse a window is displayed showing you its various stats.

What does the "Rtng" column refer to and what is a good value for that column? Like if a horses has a "rtng" value of over 400 is it better than a horse with 300 or is it the other way around? Also some horses end up with negative values..

If anyone can explain it to this newbie that would be great :)

Thanks

[Sportz]

The higher the better.

Although they're not directly related to weight ratings you can actually use them that way. Simply put a decimal point in there so that the 400 becomes 40.0, 575 becomes 57.5, 640 becomes 64.0 etc etc. That will give you a pretty good guide about the relative strengths of the horses.

I think the ratings are based on lengths beaten. I can't remember seeing a negative rating, but I've seen some very low ones and it simply means that the horse had a real shocker that day and was beaten a long way. If a horse has one rating which is much lower than all the rest, it's probably best to just ignore that rating.

[suds]

tried their input on & off a few times over time but not much success overall...guess its the way you apply...

[pengo]

Ok after reviewing the races across the states today, if you were to put a PLACE bet on a horse with the highest rating over 51 (e.g. it lists as 519 in RTNG column so 51.9) you would have made money today.

Will put in some tips for caulfield tomorrow to see how successful this is.

Also will need to look further in how many times such a highly rated horse has won rather than placed. To see if it would be worthwhile to put on a bet each way.

[King Cugat]

Pengo


Good onya, ill watch with interest re:Caulfied. Keep in mind every fav at the 2 eastern state meetings today placed so it may not be a good day to count as far as average run of the mill days go.

[pengo]

Caulfield 12/12
Race 2, 4 - Attrition
Race 3, 5 - Red Riveria
Race 4, 11- Chinamora
Race 5, 6 - Jedburgh
Race 6, 1 - Gazella
Race 7, 2 - Pinsemtoit

Above horses to place top 3.

I have my doubts, as there are a lot of horses today with ratings of over 500 (50.0).

Might have to stick to country races, as usually there is a reasonable gap between the highest rated horse and the rest of the field. For example there would be a horse rated over 51 and the next highest horse would be in the 40's.

We will see!

[pengo]

Caulfield 12/12
Race 2, 4 - Attrition, PAID
Race 3, 5 - Red Riveria, DNP
Race 4, 11- Chinamora, PAID
Race 5, 6 - Jedburgh, DNP
Race 6, 1 - Gazella, DNP
Race 7, 2 - Pinsemtoit, DNP

2 / 6 Paid.

Also did Mackay:


Race 3: 4, PAID
Race 6: 7, PAID
Race 8: 4, Has not raced.

[pengo]

Caulfield 12/12
Race 2, 4 - Attrition, PAID
Race 3, 5 - Red Riveria, DNP
Race 4, 11- Chinamora, PAID
Race 5, 6 - Jedburgh, DNP
Race 6, 1 - Gazella, DNP
Race 7, 2 - Pinsemtoit, DNP

2 / 6 Paid.

Also did Mackay:


Race 3: 4, PAID
Race 6: 7, PAID
Race 8: 4, PAID.
3/3 PAID.

Overall 5/9 PAID.

I will try E/W betting tomorrow.

[Sportz]

Here's an idea. For place or each-way betting, perhaps you could try concentrating more on horses down in the weights a bit. Maybe ignore any races where the top rater has more than 56kgs.

If you'd done that on those 9 races today, you'd have had 3 placings from 4 runners, and 2 of them were winners. Just a thought.

[westman]

The higher the better.

Although they're not directly related to weight ratings you can actually use them that way. Simply put a decimal point in there so that the 400 becomes 40.0, 575 becomes 57.5, 640 becomes 64.0 etc etc. That will give you a pretty good guide about the relative strengths of the horses.

I think the ratings are based on lengths beaten. I can't remember seeing a negative rating, but I've seen some very low ones and it simply means that the horse had a real shocker that day and was beaten a long way. If a horse has one rating which is much lower than all the rest, it's probably best to just ignore that rating.

Just lengths beaten, nothing else?

[pengo]

Good idea, will give that a try

Where race is not maiden and top rater is 51> and weight =<56kg bet else no bet :)

[pengo]

Bendigo 13/12
PLACE BETTING
Race 5: 8 <--- Has a rating of 50, I'm gonna select it even tho its below 51!. As it has a nice weight, odds & barrier.
Race 7: 6 & 10
Race 8: 5



I've been a bit lax with my rules today, only so I could pick some horses. :)

I've picked two horses for Race 7 as I like 10 and he is the next highest rated horse and has the lowest weight. It will be interesting to see who out of the two places (if not both) or if it even wins.

Lets see how we go.

[Sportz]

Just lengths beaten, nothing else?

No, the ratings are based on the class and time of the race. They work out a rating for the winner, then they go back from there. 20 ratings points equals one length, so let's say the winner rates 500. If a horse finishes 5 lengths behind, it's rating will be 400.

[pengo]

No, the ratings are based on the class and time of the race. They work out a rating for the winner, then they go back from there. 20 ratings points equals one length, so let's say the winner rates 500. If a horse finishes 5 lengths behind, it's rating will be 400.

So, a higher or lower value is better? There are some values of like -47 etc..

[pengo]

Bendigo 13/12
PLACE BETTING
Race 5: 8 <--- Has a rating of 50, I'm gonna select it even tho its below 51!. As it has a nice weight, odds & barrier.
Race 7: 6 & 10
Race 8: 5


Race 5: Placed, 1st.
Race 7: Placed, 2nd & 3rd.
Race 8: DNP

3 out of 4 paid.

Not bad.

[Sportz]

So, a higher or lower value is better? There are some values of like -47 etc..

Definitely the higher the better.

[pengo]

Moonee Valley 14/12
Race 1: 4
Race 2: 6
Race 3: 8
Race 4: 10
Race 5: 8
Race 6: 5
Race 7: 5
Race 8: 4

[pengo]

Scratch Race 3 (Moonee Valley) not enough runners.

Correction, Race 8, Selection change: 3.

[pengo]

FYI

<table x:str="" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 119pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="158"><col style="width: 71pt;" width="94"> <col style="width: 48pt;" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt; width: 71pt;" height="17" width="94">Race 4</td> <td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" x:num="" align="right" width="64">10</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Race 5</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">8</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17"> <td style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Race 6</td> <td class="xl24" x:num="" align="right">5</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Those three horses are the highest rated and have a weight equal to or less than 56.5kg.

For my other selections they are the highest rated horse in the race that is 56.5kg or less in weight (not the highest rated horse for the race; regardless of weight).

It will be interesting to see how I go, for instance will I get 3 for 3 for Race 4-6 by being really strict with my selection rules? Or can I be successful relaxing the rules somewhat and selecting the highest rated horse in the race with a weight of 56.5kg and lower.

NB: Selections are for a place, like yesterday.

[Sportz]

Moonee Valley 14/12
Race 1: 4 WON
Race 2: 6 WON
Race 3: 8 WON
Race 4: 10 WON
Race 5: 8 ???
Race 6: 5 ???
Race 7: 5 ???
Race 8: 4 ???

Hmmm, perhaps you should be looking at win betting? :eek:

[pengo]

Hmmm, perhaps you should be looking at win betting? :eek: hehe

not soo good on the last few races, just need 1 more on the last 2 to end up ahead as far as strike rate. Tho at a glance one of the place odds was just over $2. So I can "absorb" one loss. To still be ahead or at least break even.

By the way, don't count race 3 even tho my original pick came in. As I scratched it since no 3rd place divvy.

Interim Summary:
3/5
4/6 (if u include race 3).


I didn't pick it according to my system but Spin Queen (6) is race fav at the valley in its race... this is my mates horse and so hopefully it place it doesn't knock out my horse.

Interim Summary 2:
3/6
4/7

All down to the last race

My mates horse held on to win! :D

I tell you what, you could do worse than to just go place betting on mick price runners :)

[pengo]

Made a late change to Race8
No 3 replacing No 4.

As No 3 is higher rated than no4.

[pengo]

Highest rated with a weight of 56.5kg but is not highest rated horse in the race.
Race 1: 4, 1st.
Race 2: 6, 1st.
Race 7: 5, DNP
Race 8: 3 (was 4), DNP
---
Highest rated in the race and are 56.5kg or less.
Race 4 10*, 1st.
Race 5 8, DNP
Race 6 5, DNP


Summary
Race 1: 4, 1st. 1.90
Race 2: 6, 1st. 2.20
-Race 3: 8, 1st. 1.70 (not part of my final race selections; maybe i shouldn't have scratched it lol!)
Race 4: 10, 1st. 1.40
Race 5: 8, DNP
Race 6: 5, DNP
Race 7: 5, DNP
Race 8: 3 (was 4), DNP (last LOL!; to be fair something bad happened in the race, think another horse ran into it or something?)

4/8
or
3/7

Will post if you would have broken even or even profitted shortly.
-
Place betting, say you bet $10 for a place here is how you end up:
4/8: Outlay $80, Returned $72, Profit/Loss -$8
3/7: Outlay $70, Returned 55, Profit/Loss -$15.

As they say, quit while you are ahead eh? :D

[Sportz]

No, I think there could be something in it. Keep experimenting with it. Maybe each way instead of place betting.

[pengo]

Flemington 15/12
Race 3: 6
Race 4: 9
Race 5: 5
Race 6: 7
Race 7: 11
Race 8: 3

Side Tips:
Mick Price Runners
Race 5: 3

[pengo]

Flemington 15/12
Race 3: 6, 2nd, $1.70
Race 4: 9, DNP (last place)
Race 5: 5, DNP
Race 6: 7, 1st, $7.20 (WIN) $2.50 (PLACE)
Race 7: 11, 2nd, $1.90
Race 8: 3,DNP

Side Tips:
Mick Price Runners
Race 5: 3, DNP

3 for 6

FYI
If betting $10 each way its a profit of 13 vs a profit of 1 for place betting.

It seems when I do pick a horse that places its either the winner or 2nd place.

So maybe bet 10 for a place and 5 for a win? So that if its paying at least $1.50 for a place I get my money back if it places and doesn't win. Or even show a small profit if it pays more than $1.50.

Basically bet for a win half of what you are betting for a place.

If the thetote website allows me to view the odds for past results, I'll calculate how much you will be ahead or behind if you were to each way bet with the aforementioned method.

[pengo]

Ballarat 16/12
Race 2: 9
Race 6: 3
Race 7: 4
Race 8: 5
Race 9: 8


Mick Price Runners:
Race 5: 5
Race 8: 5

[Crackone]

Hi pengo good luck with useing the ratings. I have used them before and found them very good. I believe they are the same ratings that another site (r**cenet) sell , (used to be free). I now they come from Sydney.

Cheers

[pengo]

Ballarat 16/12
Race 2: 9, DNP
Race 6: 3, 1st, $4.20 & $1.80
Race 7: 4, DNP,
Race 8: 5, DNP,
Race 9: 8, 1st, $2.50 & $1.40

2 out of 5.


Mick Price Runners:
Race 5: 5, 3rd
Race 8: 5, DNP


If you bet $10 each way for the above (not including Mick Price runners, which is just for my benefit to see how he does) you'd be down $-1.

Will work out how you fair based on the method I've described previously ($10 for a place, $5 for a win) later.

Also one thing to note is that Races 2, Race 8 & Race 9 paid below $1.50 for a place, so might need to tweak my selection criteria to include it showing odds over $1.50 for a place. Based on that, I would have selected only 2 races for today and would be doing better - 1 for 2. Furthermore, I may have to limit it to place odds of $2 or more so that the final odds isn't below $1.50 as it seems if early odds are showing $1.50 or less the final odds depends to be equal to or less than this.

I'll post my overall stats with each way betting method tomorrow (from results to date), as I'm keen to see where I stand :)

Comments appreciated.

[pengo]

Check this out ! :)

Bendigo 13-Dec
Race, Selection, Place, Odds, Return
Race 5 8 1st 6.5 65
Race 7 6 2nd 1.8 18
Race 8 5 dnp 0 0

Moonee Valley 14-Dec
Race 1 4 1st 6.9 69
Race 2 6 1st 9.4 94
Race 4 10 1st 4.1 41
Race 5 8 DNP 0 0
Race 6 5 DNP 0 0
Race 7 5 DNP 0 0
Race 8 3 DNP 0 0

Flemington 15-Dec
Race 3 6 2nd 1.7 17
Race 4 9 DNP 0 0
Race 5 5 DNP 0 0
Race 6 7 1st 9.7 97
Race 7 11 2nd 1.9 19
Race 8 3 DNP 0 0

Ballarat 16-Dec
Race 2 9 DNP 0 0
Race 6 3 1st 6 60
Race 7 4 DNP 0 0
Race 8 5 DNP 0 0
Race 9 8 1st 3.9 39

Winners: 7/21
Placed: 3/21
Total: 10/21

Outlay 420
Return 519
Profit/Loss: +99
Bet System: $10 each way.

Will do up the $5 win, $10 place bet system and post the results later.

[pengo]

Alright if you do 5 for a win and 10 for a place, you are only up 25.
Whereas if you do 10 each way you are up 99.

Think I'll just stick to 10 each way and see how I go. So far out of 4 race meets, overall I'm still ahead.

[pengo]

Sale
Race 8: 9

Only one race today, as I am only selecting a horse that meets the criteria if the place odds is paying more than $1.50.

Betting = 10 each way.

May need to drop the no betting if odds for a place is less than 2.00 if I find I am not being able to bet on many races.

[pengo]

My calculations were off for the overall return, its actually a profit of 83 for a 10 each way bet.

Not the 99.

Return 503
Outlay 420
Profit 83

19% Return, thats alright! :)

[pengo]

Sale 17/12
Race 8 : 9, DNP

0 for 1

[pengo]

Wangaratta 18/12

Mick Price Runner(s):
Race 3: 7
Race 6: 4
------------

My tips:
Race 7: 4

[pengo]

Wangaratta 18/12

Mick Price Runner(s):
Race 3: 7, dnp
Race 6: 4, dnp
nb: not part of my betting strategy.
------------

My tips:
Race 7: 4, 1st, win 2.00, place 1.30

1 for 1

[pengo]

Sandown 19/12
Race 1: 8
Race 2: 3
Race 3: 5
Race 4: 11
Race 5: 3
Race 6: 9
Race 7: 6 (there is another horse with the exact same rating, so I had to make a choice between 6 & 11).

Mick Price
Race 5: 11

[pengo]

So far only got a horse placing 3rd today for Sandown. To try and improve my results, I'm thinking I should average the last 3 ratings to get a better picture of its rating. As sometimes the race winner ends up being a horse that other than its last race had a rating of over 500. So that gives me the impression is a decent enough horse, it may have just had a bad run or something unexpected occured in the race.

I'll stick with my selections, but I'm going to go thru and see if I was to do what I mentioned above (average out the last 3 ratings) to see if I end up with thace horse that placed 1st or more horses placing top 3.

[pengo]

Ok so far, in the first two races, its changed my selections and they end up being the race winner!

[pengo]

Sandown 19/12
Race 1: 8, dnp
Race 2: 3, 2nd
Race 3: 5, dnp
Race 4: 11, 3rd
Race 5: 3, 1st
Race 6: 9, 1st
Race 7: 6, dnp

4 for 7

Mick Price
Race 5: 11, DNP

[iggy25]

doing great pengo
keep em coming

[pengo]

Sandown selections based on if I averaged the last 3 ratings of each horse to determine if it will be selected:

Race 1: 2-Grisbi, 1st
Race 2: 6-Dartbolt, 1st
Race 3: 5-Salerne , DNP
Race 4: 5-Shake It Off, DNP
Race 5: 3-Barwon Express, 1st
Race 6: 7-We Wonder, 3rd
Race 7: 6-Blazonry, DNP

Ended up having one more 1st over the other selections for Sandown, but having the same amount of selections that paid (4). Tho having more winners would mean a better pay out.

[pengo]

Kyneton 20/12
Race 5 7
Race 6 4
Race 7 7

Horses selected by averaging their last 3 ratings.

[pengo]

Kyneton 20/12
Race 5 7, 2nd.
Race 6 4, dnp.
Race 7 7, dnp

1 for 3.

Not doing so good this week!

[pengo]

Yarra Valley 21/12
Race 6: 9
Race 7: 4

No horses met the selection criteria of having a rating average of equal to or more than 510.
The two horses selected had a previous rating of 510 or more but their average rating was less.


Moonee Valley 21/12
Race 3: 5
Race 5: 5
Going with 5 as both its last rating and average is above 510, where as no 7 has a higher rating but its average rating is lower.
Race 6: 5
Race 8: 8

[pengo]

Yarra Valley 21/12
Race 6: 9, 3rd
Race 7: 4, DNP

Moonee Valley 21/12
Race 3: 5, 1st
Race 5: 5, DNP (No 7 came in 3rd lol)
Race 6: 5, 1st
Race 8: 8, DNP

3 for 6.

[pengo]

Sandown 22/12
Race 1: 5
Race 2: 3
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 4
Race 7: 8

[pengo]

Sandown 22/12
Race 1: 5, 3rd, no dividend.
Race 2: 3, dnp
Race 3: 4, 2nd
Race 4: 4, dnp
Race 7: 8, 3rd

my give this "system" the boot; especialy for heavy tracks.