Mathematics Boffins please help.

[TWOBETS]

As a place better I found it very easy to calculate my probable outcomes for any system I devised, but for the past 3 weeks I've been having a go at the laying. I love all the extra action as I can now average 6 bets per day as opposed to 2, but................................................................!

After 65 successful lay bets in a row I now realise I can't work out whether I'm a flipping genious or the equivalent of a bet to win bloke who's had one bet and it happened to win.

Let me explain.......
My average odds accepted for my lay bets were around $16.50 so I've only won around 4 times my possible loss after all that action. In other words if I'd been backing to win and scored just one $4 winner then I'd be in exactly the same position.

So my question refers to the chances of this continuing. Is it the same as one lucky win bet or not.

[Chrome Prince]

Not a boffin, but will give you my input...

65 bets
Average odds $16.50

You would expect to have had 3.93 winners in that time.

I believe there is not enough data to say whether it's a winner, butmake hay while the sun shines.

Remember your average odds are $16.50, so you have laid horses at much more than this price, therefore youe winners are in line with the odds, but you've been very successful with the horses around the 8/1 price.

I believe it is akin to one 4/1winner, basically you need a lot more bets to work out if you're doing well.

Good luck, at the moment it all looks rosy, just beware that you might get double the expected in the next 65 bets.

[TWOBETS]

That is kind of what I thought . One saving grace is I have an upper limit of $25 to lay. I can't believe that some dudes offer 3 or more times the average tote price on these nags on occassions. Surely they must get roasted somewhere down the track...... I just move on to the next race where this is happening.

Thanks for your time Chrome.

[AngryPixie]

Twobets

Chrome is right. You need to run things a bit longer. If it makes you feel any better I layed about 65 horses on Saturday for a single $8 (Kenny's World) accident. You do get some really long runs with laying, but when you get two or three accidents in a row you'll feel less of a genius :)

Go for it anyway.

[Chrome Prince]

Yep, it's all roses and glory while they're getting rolled, but when two or three on the trot win, it's devastating,this comes from a man who layed 24 favourites one day and 18 of them won :eek:

Takes forever to get that sort of whammy back.

Now I'm a bit more selective.

The Aussie market is way out of kilter compared to overseas.
I can readily lay at least two horses below tote odds in most races and back two horses waaaaay over tote odds. And these are in the first four faves.

Overseas, it's a lot harder to get set below.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Twobets,
I think you are a genius, its just a bit annoying when one of our Donkeys gets up at big odds to beat the odds-on hot pot Fav in the race, defying all logic & it happens when our money is on it, to fall over.

Sometimes 2 of our trusty no-hopers get up in a row.

I ran a test for some one, where one has to lay bet the horse that is closest to $30 or a bit less.

It was amazing how many , one of these nages would usually get up within every 30 bets, weird!

So the tip is , dont make ones selection to lay , on price alone.

Cheers.

[jfc]

As a place better I found it very easy to calculate my probable outcomes for any system I devised, but for the past 3 weeks I've been having a go at the laying. I love all the extra action as I can now average 6 bets per day as opposed to 2, but................................................................!

After 65 successful lay bets in a row I now realise I can't work out whether I'm a flipping genious or the equivalent of a bet to win bloke who's had one bet and it happened to win.

Let me explain.......
My average odds accepted for my lay bets were around $16.50 so I've only won around 4 times my possible loss after all that action. In other words if I'd been backing to win and scored just one $4 winner then I'd be in exactly the same position.

So my question refers to the chances of this continuing. Is it the same as one lucky win bet or not.

Implied Strike Rate = 15.5/16.5 ~= 94%

0.94^65 = 1.8% = Chance of unbroken run of 65

So this is far more harder than scoring a $4 winner in a solitary try.

[TWOBETS]

Aha! That was what I was looking for, the 1+1=3 type of brain that jfc has, and it is a little boost to keep me interested in this Lay game. Thanks again jfc.

Thankyou to all other contributors to my question also. Kind of reminds me of what this Forum used to be. (perhaps it's on the rise again !).

Good point Bhagwan, but I'm picking by form but also using price as a final hurdle to qualify. That is, if it's in the top 3 on any market I look elsewhere. It's freakin' amazing how often you'll see one states tab out of whack with the other 2 only to find it runs a place (or worse...it wins).