The Free Gold System

[TheSystemKing]

Hello all, I wonder how many of you have dreamed of a betting system that is like being given gold for free. Well, I have it. I get fixed odds and I always finish in front. Since I started using this system, one of many I have, I've finished in front every time I have used it. Every time I hit a winner I'm a winner. They might be able to stop you at roulette with things like table limits and even banning you, but they can't stop me betting on a horse until I hit a winner and finishing in front every time I get a winner.

[King Cugat]

Benny, is this you [/url] ........[url="http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/misc.php?do=getsmilies&wysiwyg=1&forumid=10#"] (http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/misc.php?do=getsmilies&wysiwyg=1&forumid=10#)

[freek]

It's amazing how wild claims of success always seem to come from 1st posters?

[Bhagwan]

It raises the question of why the original post was made.


Sorry to sound cynical, but is there a reason why the criteria is not shown preseeded by the word "free".


Cheers.

[moeee]

Benny, is this you [/url] ........[url="http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/misc.php?do=getsmilies&wysiwyg=1&forumid=10#"] (http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/misc.php?do=getsmilies&wysiwyg=1&forumid=10#)

LOLLLLLL! :)

[westman]

It's amazing how wild claims of success always seem to come from 1st posters?

...now that's funny...coming from a '1st poster' LOL welcome to the forum, freek :)

[Crackone]

please please tell me more I want to win all the time just like you please please I can't hold on any longer!!!!! help me become rich I will pay you thousands for the system, you name your price. last chance hurry.

[TheSystemKing]

Isn't it typical? As soon as someone comes on here and posts something you lot don't agree with you all gang up and tear into them. And wonder why its just one post. You wonder why this place is so quite. Doesn't take a genius to work it out. Soon as someone comes on and posts what you, in your set little ways don't want to hear, you THEN decide to post and collectively gang up. Its like you were sitting there quietly waiting for a post to appear that you don't like, then you spring into action defending your set, staid ideas, and ambush the newbie. I've seen it time and time again. Guess you dont like any one rocking your little boat, heh? lol rofl

[pengo]

Without anything to back up your wild claims at success, they prefer to dispute it. As anyone can come on here and say they are highly successful without backing it up. If you want a bit of respect, you need to back it up. Otherwise don't be so surprised if people knock you, if you don't back up your claims with facts.

At the end of the day the only person you are really kidding is yourself.

So if you are so successful, please share how you come about being so successful. If you don't wish to share information about your system, then please don't be shocked when people are skeptical. As talk is cheap :)

[King Cugat]

Did you post the wrong smiley face there rofl boy? or is that you laughed out.

I thought you going to reveal the answer after the commercial break......

I reckon anyone that posts tips on a continous basis should have a running tally so we can note there worthiness. You usually see only those winners wacked in a quote box AFTER the race. The losers go missing and nobody knows whether they're following an astute punter or a novice having a crack at it. The only tips i follow in here are those like michealg's who are prepared to post the ongoing tally. i can see his tips and how genuine the tips are going for profit.

In saying that System King i think it should also work the other way. If you want to post tips, then show results >> OR >> post yourt results then your tips if you want to keep it hidden.
Otherwise just keep posting away but dont expect many to want to know about your gold press.

As far as the reception you got..... Pengo summed it up nicely

[crash]

The thread was entitled "The Free Gold system". What did we get? No system, just the usual brag [without the gold].

[Crackone]

. Every time I hit a winner I'm a winner. They might be able to stop you at roulette with things like table limits and even banning you, but they can't stop me betting on a horse until I hit a winner and finishing in front every time I get a winner.Progressive betting will fall over in the end.

[Chrome Prince]

they can't stop me betting on a horse until I hit a winner and finishing in front every time I get a winner.

If only I could help one punter having to go through this rite of passage, I'd be happy.
But they never listen, it seems an ordained path to realisation, like the hike to the top of a mountain in Tibet.
The wise monk sits at the top of the mountain, the seeker at the bottom, he must trek to wisdom, for the monk has already walked that path and knows the answer.

Trek well my son.

[syllabus23]

The forum lags,,,the ante-Christ appears,,,,vitriol spews,,,all is well.......the controllers reign supreme......

[Bhagwan]

All hail the Controllers, all hail the Controllers, so that we may be protected from the Anti-Christ.

(Something made me say that, I didn't mean it, I'm sorry)

Now, who's the Favorite in the next race so that I too can be a winner every time I hit a winner, using the trusty progressive chain betting method

Somebody SSSTOP! me.

[Shaun]

Lets just break this down a little so all understand what is being offered here.

Progression bett that in itself is a bit risky lets do some simple maths, we will start small $2 now if you are backing favs you would need to double this everytime to get a profit when a winner is struck.

$2
$4
$8
$16
$32
$64
$128
$256
$512
$1024
$2048
$4096

This is after 12 losses, are you willing to continue after these losses?
Can you get matched on betfair for this amount of money after all we are talking fixed odds and we know a bookie will not keep taking the bets at any amount.

This all sounds very simple and we see favs win all the time, but have you done the numbers we are talking what if they don't win what is the backup plan and do you have the bank and the balls to go on with it (for the ladies i am not sure what you need since you don't have balls)

[baco60]

Come in suckers the king got you going.Ho,ho,ho.
Like a pack of Hyenas.

[Grand Armee]

Lets just break this down a little so all understand what is being offered here.

Progression bett that in itself is a bit risky lets do some simple maths, we will start small $2 now if you are backing favs you would need to double this everytime to get a profit when a winner is struck.

$2
$4
$8
$16
$32
$64
$128
$256
$512
$1024
$2048
$4096

This is after 12 losses, are you willing to continue after these losses?
Can you get matched on betfair for this amount of money after all we are talking fixed odds and we know a bookie will not keep taking the bets at any amount.

This all sounds very simple and we see favs win all the time, but have you done the numbers we are talking what if they don't win what is the backup plan and do you have the bank and the balls to go on with it (for the ladies i am not sure what you need since you don't have balls)
That's not actually true, Shaun, you don't have to double your bet, you only have to increase it by whatever amount is needed to get back your previous stake. Say, for example, you got odds of $3.00 about every single favourite, your bet would increase by 1/3 (33%) each time.

[TheSystemKing]

...They might be able to stop you at roulette with things like table limits and even banning you, but they can't stop me betting on a horse until I hit a winner and finishing in front ....You just don't get it do you? Your so stuck on your negative little theories about "why this can't win," "why that must lose" that you lose all sense of perspective when it comes to the hurly burly of betting. Why do you think casinos have table limits? Its sure NOT to stop the punters losing more money. But IT IS to stop the punters winning by smart selection of numbers, I won't go into that here, PLUS staking. But your staking on horses is NOT limited by table limits. You can place your bet on the same horse with any number of bookies. Now as I indicated, I have my own great high strike rate selection method ... Does it run at a profit? Does it run at a loss? I DON'T KNOW. Why? Because even 10,000 bets prove nothing. You might be 1% down over 10,000 but 1% up after 10 million. Get my drift? Or are you going to get bogged down by theory? Are you going to get bogged down by the killer losing run? Who gives a proverbial if that comes once in a million bets or whatever. No matter how good your selection method is, whether it is pricing or whatever, you cannot tell me that your prices are so accurate that you will NEVER have a losing run that kills you off. So don't try your high and mighty falutin theory on me. Once you have a good selection method, you don't even have to bet on every horse, because every selection method in the real world of betting turns up some real dud selections, all you need is a decent staking method where you win and you become a winner. For my own part I NEVER lose more than three bets in a row on any day. I stop at three and then continue on the next day. I reckon if you work on my ideas you might just get your own free gold betting system. As for those here who say cough up or shut up that is typical. So typical. I rember a poster here some time ago who had a winning method based upon what was actually happening during the betting. I think he was Kenchor. Did he get canned by the negative brigade that live here because he could not give them his winners for free. Thats the problem in this place. You always want winning bets and winning systems for free. You dont want to be given an idea like I have given you and then YOU have to put in some time to fill it in and make it work. Well TOUGH luck. I have given you a great idea. Now its up to intrested readers to make something of it in the world of practical punting, not the high falutin theory of punting.

[gift horse]

I copped an absolute gobful here when I posted in the middle of last year about my system. They all wanted my rules or my winners for free so they could work it out and then with everyone betting on it of course trash the odds.

I haven't posted till now. See their doing the same to you as they did to me.

Great stuff System King. And good luck. I know you won't need it.

[Chrome Prince]

Oh dear, you don't know if it loses or if it wins, oh dear me, it's going to be a long trek.
I'm on Betfair every day, please take my money, I can't wait.

Nobody wants anyone's selections for free, but posters come on with all these wild claims and offer absolutley no substance and completely flawed mathematics and logic.
Casinos have table limits because of possible cheating and liability, they do not have table limits because you can beat the odds.
I went above table limits at Crown and they moved me to a higher stakes table, then I went above that limit and they moved me to the Mahogany Room, they were not afraid that I would beat the odds, they were afraid I was cheating. so much so I had two pit bosses distracting me and overseeing every bet.

If you feel you can beat the maths and beat every other punter over 200 years of bookmaking, then good luck, you'll need it

This is not the same as Kenchar, he place bet horses based on market movements and stopped at a winner, an entirely different logic to martingale chasing losses on losing methods.
Psychology came into play with Kenchar's method and he did not chase losses.

[Chrome Prince]

Regarding Kenchar, his method still works today and I use it for about one or two place bets a day, it's been working for more than two years.

[TheSystemKing]

Oh dear, you don't know if it loses or if it wins, oh dear me, it's going to be a long trek....
lol rofl. "Does it run at a profit? Does it run at a loss? I DON'T KNOW. Why? Because even 10,000 bets prove nothing. You might be 1% down over 10,000 but 1% up after 10 million. Get my drift?" Obviously you did NOT get my drift. People come and claim a profit or loss based on 100 or 200 selections or whatever. It proves nothing. You cannot claim a long term profit based on such a small sample. Even 10,000 bets proves nothing. You might be 2% down over 10,000 but 2% up after 10 million. SURELY you must get my drift? If not I give up teaching you.

[Chrome Prince]

10,000 winning bets proves nothing?

Sherpas will help you on your journey. ;)

Further it has nothing to do with how many bets you have, it has to do with the percentage of winners making up the profit or loss.

You could have 900 bets and one winner at 1000/1

Or you could have 500 bets and 300 winners at evens

What are the odds the first one will make money longterrm, what are the odds the second one will.

[lomaca]

lol rofl. "Does it run at a profit? Does it run at a loss? I DON'T KNOW. Why? Because even 10,000 bets prove nothing. You might be 1% down over 10,000 but 1% up after 10 million. Get my drift?"

Hi!
I don't usually buy into this sort of thing, because I don't offer tips myself, BUT I am not selling anything either!
BUT, What you are saying about stats. <b>"Because even 10,000 bets prove nothing!"</b>, is just garbage, if you actually believe it yourself then go away, you are a fool and wasting everyones time!
I had less then 3000 <i>(you can even use a lot less than this)</i> bets behind the method that turned out to be profitable, even back tested to 1998, before I dared to turn semi pro. and I had never looked back and it still works.
Statistics don't lie, <b>People DO!</b> Give me <b>reliable</b> statistical data and it will prove only one thing, <b>the likely outcome</b>. Use dodgey data and you can prove anything, but to say 10000 records prove nothing is stupid if not downright deceitful

[Crackone]

Hello all, I wonder how many of you have dreamed of a betting system that is like being given gold for free. Well, I have it. I get fixed odds and I always finish in front. Since I started using this system, one of many I have, I've finished in front every time I have used it. Every time I hit a winner I'm a winner. They might be able to stop you at roulette with things like table limits and even banning you, but they can't stop me betting on a horse until I hit a winner and finishing in front every time I get a winner.Have you got any figures, one bet 100 bets, what % return do you get?

[TheSystemKing]

.... but to say 10000 records prove nothing is stupid if not downright deceitful
WHY? 10,000 bets can produce a POT of 1% and the next 10,000 could produce a loss on turnover of 2%. If you are dealing with such small margins that is no aberation. It means that after 20,000 bets there is a loss on turnover, NOT a profit. But what smart staking can do is turn a small loss on level stakes turnover into a profit. Your theories say it cannot be done without wiping you out. lol But betting is NOT theory, it is practise.

[Chrome Prince]

Show me one lot of 10,000 bets anywhere that produces 1% POT and the other 10,000 that shows a loss.

Guess I'll be waiting til next Christmas.

Ho Ho Ho.

Staking cannot turn a loss into a profit or the bookies would go broke.

Overround will get you in the end.

You can temporarily turn a loss into a profit, but that's luck, not logic and maths.

Where are all the stalwarts of loss into profit.

E.J. busted
Tony TTA busted

Both no longer heard from.

I guess that's why it's called gambling, there will always be those throwing money at a house edge.

[Crackone]

So how can you claim that you have the "betting System"


I think your doing a bit of fishing

[pengo]

Dude,

If your system is so profitable, what are you doing wasting your time on a web forum?

I know if I found that a system that was profitable and thus make me rich, the last thing I would be doing would be posting about it on a web forum. I'd be out living the high life, heck I'd be buying my own race horses instead of betting on them!

[Grand Armee]

Betting on horses is far, far more profitable (if you're winning) than owning them. Owning them is a great way to burn your $$$$$$$. Don't believe the rumours.

[Shaun]

Betting on horses is far, far more profitable (if you're winning) than owning them. Owning them is a great way to burn your $$$$$$$. Don't believe the rumours.

Unless you get one like your name sake.

[Grand Armee]

Unless you get one like your name sake.
Yes, but the chances of that are much less than the rankest outsider who ran this year.

[syllabus23]

Quote Crack-One

So how can you claim that you have the "betting System"


I think your doing a bit of fishing


Not even that Crack,,,this is a contrived thread designed to kick-start a moribund forum.

[pengo]

You get paid for top 6 when owning a horse, and sometimes top 10 if the prize money is up there. Whereas if you bet you only get paid if you bet the winner or get a top 3 finisher. In addition you get inside information which helps you do a lot better when betting :)

[Crackone]

You get paid for top 6 when owning a horse, and sometimes top 10 if the prize money is up there. Whereas if you bet you only get paid if you bet the winner or get a top 3 finisher. In addition you get inside information which helps you do a lot better when betting :)Pengo have you had a horse? I had one in a syndicate 10 years ago, if they pay there way you are lucky!!! with training ($1200 a month 10 years ago) and vet bills. Sure if you have a good horse that has won in town you may come out in front, what is the % of horses that win in town? The thrill of watching your horse go around can no be beaten!!

[pengo]

No but my mate has one, Aloisi which just came in 3rd. I bet on a win for him and lost whereas my mate is getting paid :P

LOL @ 1200 a month.. My mate doesn't pay anywhere near that and the prize money has paid for its ongoing month to month costs.

Previous to today's race it placed 4th and today 3rd, so hopefully next race he finally gets a win.

[Chuck]

pengo i hope you're not advocating owning as a way to make money, because you would be wrong a very very large % of the time (i can't find the actual numbers, but a horse has a low chance of getting to the track in the first place let alone paying for your outlay)

[pengo]

If owning a race horse is not a good way to make money, then why do we even have a racing industry? :)

That said, there are definitely way better ways and with betting you have a "faster" way to make money. Plus also easier, let everyone else pay for the hard work that goes into a racehorse and profit from their success.

[Chrome Prince]

We have a racing industry because owners want to have the thrill of seeing their horse run around and hopefully win.
To have a horse that pays for itself or makes money on top is the elusive holy grail.
More than 90% of owners fork out far more than they ever get back.
That's why it's known as the sport of kings.

Without syndication only the rich can afford to race them.

In 2009 I'll be getting a horse to race for fun (2008 is already full of other things), I expect it will cost me plenty, but you never know, I probably have a 10% chance of making money.

In one race at sandown the winner cost $18,000 and beat horses costing in excess of $200,000.

You don't need to purchase a $500,000 horse, a horse under $20,000 has just as much chance of winning, the higher priced horses just have higher stud value.

There have been quite a few very expensive duds on the racetrack, many millions spent and never won a race.
The bloodline might be there for future progeny, but I would never buy a horse sired by an expensive non winner.

My horse will have to be sired by a multiple Group 1 winner, and under $20,000, you'd be amazed how many there are when the fashionable sires are the expensive ones.

Hey, maybe I can just keep betting more and more til it wins to recoup all costs, if it doesn't win, I'll just line up at the soup kitchen ;)

[Grand Armee]

Hey, maybe I can just keep betting more and more til it wins to recoup all costs, if it doesn't win, I'll just line up at the soup kitchen ;)Yes, and when it wins you'll be able to start a thread on a forum somewhere, with something like....

"Hello all, I wonder how many of you have dreamed of a betting system that is like being given gold for free. Well, I have it. I get fixed odds and I always finish in front. Since I started using this system, one of many I have, I've finished in front every time I have used it. Every time I hit a winner I'm a winner. They might be able to stop you at roulette with things like table limits and even banning you, but they can't stop me betting on a horse until I hit a winner and finishing in front every time I get a winner."

[Bhagwan]

Can someone tell me why this thread is tagged "The Free Gold System"?

[stugots]

yes, still waiting on the 'system' part to rear its proverbial

or can i take it one simply doubles up on the fav until 'in front'?

merry xmas

[King Cugat]

They might be able to stop you at roulette with things like table limits and even banning you Roulette is one of a casino's biggest earner. In the U.S. with the 2x zeros THE TABLE RAKES IN 5.26% advantage. Over the last 20yrs its been described as a "suckers game" by virtually every gambling authority.
To suggest that a casino has limits to stop your method of betting is a little uneducated on the casino front and i'm hoping you dont really think that & that perhaps it was due to your excitement. If you were to tell a casino your plans they would happily accomodate you. & happily take the tables 1.26% - 2.7% every time ( based on only the '0' & not the second '00' )
I think if you were to go into any casino & using the 'ABC'S -The Chasers war..." method of stealing some air time & ask over the loud speaker for all those hands up who were in here based upon >> walking the tables until you see 8 in a row of black then doubling up on red until you won"....a dozen hands would slowly rise.
Go in a month later and you would be lucky to see any of them still doing it.

The casinos still have roulette
Its one of their biggest earners
The table limits are there until you ask for a higher limit in a different room where the better trained staff can accomodate you.

I dont agree or disagree with your methods. Even this system i'm trialling on this site wont show more then 2 losers in a row place betting. I know you may not be refering to place betting & it requires more of a bank behind you but 2 losers only then a winner place betting at $1.40 or $1.50 isnt alot of money going with your betting strategies anyway.

im sure the faster this goes away the better....... Keep your 'winning system' to yourself and good luck. Theres plenty in here who are very very green when it comes to basic system punting and dont even believe its possible. When you 1st spot them it becomes more obvious everytime they post they just dont grasp the whole thing. They are in here to learn.....some more then others. I am in here to further my learning and to see how a few are also going about it. Unfortunately theres 10% who are and 90% who are not. I enjoy the posts of those who are, which is why i come back.
I am a semi pro who bets 6/7 days a week and earns a good living from punting (i mean more then i can earn in unskilled employment)......however i can post in an instant quotes from 3 regulars in here who claim i cant be making a cent betting how i do. They even dedicated a half a thread to it once! Yet I havent found a thread....anywhere.... from 2 of these 3 to have ever claimed they are makin money from punting.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pengo
You must be kidding on the ownership thing??? When you get bills in the mail, which it doesnt sound like you ever have......it hurts!
go to http://www.anthonycummings.com.au/purchase.asp

no reason why i picked it other then its a link on racenet that i visit daily & that Anthony Cummings is a master at picking value horses...backed up by anyone thats read the might and power book too. His father and he would be our leaders in picking horses on expected ability and not price. Scroll all the way through this list and keep in mind theres no better value for money buyers around & look at the results.

[lomaca]

Even this system i'm trialling on this site wont show more then 2 losers in a row place betting. I know you may not be refering to place betting & it requires more of a bank behind you but 2 losers only then a winner place betting at $1.40 or $1.50 isnt alot of money going with your betting strategies anyway.

A $1.40 for a place when the proper odds should be $1.20 is not bad.

Theres plenty in here who are very very green when it comes to basic system punting and dont even believe its possible.
Small Christmas gift to those who don't know, (probably very few?)
If you are a place bettor look at the win/place ratio and if it is better then it should be, go for it! maybe even for each way!
Example: win $3.10 place $1.50. Win $6.20 place $1.90!!
As to turn a losing system into a winning one by staking!? Logically, and mathematically it's not possible, all you can hope for is luck! That's gambling not punting.
Good luck

[wesmip1]

As to turn a losing system into a winning one by staking!? Logically, and mathematically it's not possible, That quote is just wrong.

It is possible both logically and mathematically.

For most systems/selection methods it will not work. I can agree with that statment but to put a blanket on it saying it won't work is incorrect.

If you have a high enough strike rate and the odds show a loss at level stake you can make a profit ising a progressive staking plan.

Mathematically it is always possible as there is no theoretical limit to how much you can bet.

Logically 99% of people stuff it up because they don't understand the risks and how to minimise them. For those that spend the time looking can make a nice profit. For the others who just say its not possible well that is too bad for them. If you play with it for a while you can see what the problems are ( ie large loss after x bets) and you can come up with solutions to them.

Good Luck.

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, it can work, but eventually the odds will catch up.
If they don't it is clear that the better staked selections show a profit.
If one can find them, why bother staking?

[King Cugat]

For most systems/selection methods it will not work Correct
If you have a high enough strike rate and the odds show a loss at level stake you can make a profit ising a progressive staking plan.
Correct

Well written Wes.

If you were to line up 50 systems that were based on a good selection criteria, that was winning, on a unit for unit basis
V's
50 systems that were based on a selection criteria that couldnt win, on a unit for unit basis, & needed staking intervention to make profits.........

Then its obvious to say that when reporting back in 12months time the first 50 would still be there....as in all 50 of them making profit, 100% garuanteed.
Only probably a few of the 2nd 50 would be there, only because of street wiseness by the operator and a decent bank.

its not impossible as youve stated....it just lacks long jevity.

My beliefs from readings & hands on >> are those that use it only do so because they dont yet have a winning unit for unit system & although they know its risky have no other choice. Those that do have a unit for unit winning system will never, ever tread those waters.

The risk in staking / doubling up / retreiving .....is soley on a user pays system >>> if you have to use it to make profit u risk paying a hefty price. If you have a unit for unit system, you dont need it, then punting is very much a risk free environment.

[lomaca]

It is possible both logically and mathematically.


Prove it!

[TheSystemKing]

Its good to see I am now getting supporters here of my betting system. Because yes. It can be done. High falutin theory doesn't work in the rough and tumble of REAL betting. What WORKS is practice. DOING. Not pretending. Not saying "It can't be done" in theory so I am not going to attempt it. All I need are my great system selections, deciding whether or not to back them when I see what they are and the betting, then staking them right. I expect to be a winner again today. Now all those who say it can't be done, I hope your all winning or as usual is this sour grapes from those who cannot do, so they say it cannot be done?

[pengo]

If you are going to be a winner today how about listing a couple of your selections now, to prove you aren't all talk ?

[stugots]

Prove it!

cant be

if you find yourself desperate enough to follow a 'loss making system' which you believe can turn a profit by careful staking, ill put you on to an old mate of mine, one of the worst gamblers ive ever know & his simple philosophy? just keep doubling until in the black or pockets are empty, seen him win & lose small fortunes in an afternoon. turnover $5k to win $50? yes real, real clever that.

he has finally has seen the errors of his ways, & all these loss chasing schemes are just variations on the martingale & as such cannot work in any way, shape or form. the real tragedy for devotees of this rubbish is that its just not necessary, & many of these poor suffering fools have convinced themselves that it is the only way to beat the punt. ha!

instead put your energies into developing that selection method,mechanical or otherwise & aim for a paper return of at least 20-30%, you will need it as the realities of the punt will drag that number down by at least 1/2

& finally there are methods that do work, the price you pay? time, lots & lots of time

[topsy99]

i remember about 30 years ago meeting a fellow that had bought "the gold system" . it was based on an american idea which randomly has a lot of appearl but would test the commitment of the user. i never used it but it may actually work.

this system was simply to back the longest priced last start winner in a race.


that is all.
if you recall over the past spring carnival a few bottlers got up.

and i suppose they get up every day. i recall over the past month i have backed trimvision twice at double figure odds (west aust) after he won the start before.
(not based on the gold system) i think trimvision has won 4 on end now the last as a short priced favorite.

[crash]

Its good to see I am now getting supporters here of my betting system. Because yes. It can be done. High falutin theory doesn't work in the rough and tumble of REAL betting. What WORKS is practice. DOING. Not pretending. Not saying "It can't be done" in theory so I am not going to attempt it. All I need are my great system selections, deciding whether or not to back them when I see what they are and the betting, then staking them right. I expect to be a winner again today. Now all those who say it can't be done, I hope your all winning or as usual is this sour grapes from those who cannot do, so they say it cannot be done?

Give us a break mate [look at meee, look at meeee!].

We don't have ********ing competitions here.
Consistent winners have no need to brag. Any idiot can get onto a forum and drone on about make-believe success at anything. It's another thing to prove it. So either stop skiting how big you are and show us the goods, or go elsewhere to attract the attention that you [obviously] crave.

[TheSystemKing]

You have missed my points. All you need to do is develop and refine a sound betting system - it DOESN'T MATTER if it makes some small loss like 1% over 100 or 200 bets or whatever when you are developing it because that is statistically irrelevant over 10,000, over 50,000 bets and if you wait that long to use it you'll never have a bet! lol rofl Anyway, any small POT loss should be improved upon by not automatically backing the system's dud selections and getting decent odds on what you do bet and also watching the betting with a smart eagle eye. Not automatically taking TAB starting price. lol Now you have your system all you need to maximise your rewards is a decent staking plan. Simple really. And NOW you have your Free Gold Betting System. I reckon the SMART punters, the WINNERS, will know what I am talking about or at least NOW seriously have a think. Winners debunk theory. WINNERS DO.

[King Cugat]

Givin me a headache....not to mention the amount of times i have unsucessfully 'unsubscribed' from the thread only find my inbox full.


Heres the deal >>>

1. We do understand your theory
2. We just dont agree to it....long term becasue it probabaly doesnt run hand in hand alongside our own selection methods where we can win without the risk of staking / catch ups.
3. We now presume when you said "free Gold System" you were only suggesting the staking method .....and not a selection method + staking method together which in my books consitutes a 'system'
4. Unless your going to supply or post selections + stakes on an ongoing daily basis we wont agree or listen to 'claims' with open ears. Its that simple...& i'm sure you agree thats fair enough.
5. We will go away presuming you are making money ....for now.... on your methods.

'we' = i presume this is what most think ?

can we end it yet?

[lomaca]

Ok! to put at least my mind to rest over the staking question, I am going to test it on the favs.
I was going to test level betting and also doubling up after a losing bet.
While I'm running this it would be just as easy to test other staking plans.
If any of you have a fav. staking plan put it up in reply, or if it's secret you can email me. It can be as complex as you like but you have to put it in a form that I can understand, <b>I never used staking!</b> Baghwan posted a few but, mate, I haven't got a clue what you meant by 11121223 (just an example, not what you posted) etc.
Something along the line of: bet one unit 3 times if no winner found then bet 2 units 5 times if still no winner found, then revert to 1 unit or 2 unit if winner found.
Or 1 units if odds $3.00 or more 2 units if $2.50, or double the previous bet if <2.00 etc. you can make any combination, I can code it, so long as I understand what you mean.
If no takers (deep in heart knowing it can't work) that's OK too, at least we all agree it's a crock.
Cheers

[topsy99]

e.g. miss badoura $12.60 not a bad start.
perhaps we should leave it at that for the day.

[crash]

And NOW you have your Free Gold Betting System.

And what post would that be in ?

[Chrome Prince]

There's no sour grapes mate, you are trying to convince the rest of us who know better, and it just ain't working.
Been down that road many moons ago in theory and in practice til I was slapped about the head with reality by someone else.

By all means have a go if you reckon you can crack it, was just trying to save you some heartache.

But it will only ever work on a temporary basis and then all come crashing down like the thousands before who tried and failed, because it just doesn't add up.

[crash]

Chrome is right. If he wasn't, every bookie and Casino in the World would be out of business!

Still, gullible mug punters line up to believe in and even buy, loss into profit 'gold' systems, sprouted by rogue system sellers and 'faith' believers, who really do believe 2+2 =5. Bookies and Casinos really love this lot of dills.

[pengo]

i remember about 30 years ago meeting a fellow that had bought "the gold system" . it was based on an american idea which randomly has a lot of appearl but would test the commitment of the user. i never used it but it may actually work.

this system was simply to back the longest priced last start winner in a race.


that is all.
if you recall over the past spring carnival a few bottlers got up.

and i suppose they get up every day. i recall over the past month i have backed trimvision twice at double figure odds (west aust) after he won the start before.
(not based on the gold system) i think trimvision has won 4 on end now the last as a short priced favorite.

Thats an interesting idea, based on the stats on winners and their final odds this might be profitable. I'm going to try it "on paper" over the next couple weeks and see how I fair. I don't know if you saw my thread but I tracked the winners and their final odds from Dec1-Dec22nd and found that there were quite a few winners with odds of $26. My logic being that its worthwhile because if you bet 1 unit, you only need to hit every 25th bet for it to be profitable.

[pengo]

The BESTEST GOLD SYSTEM EVAR v1337

Selection Criteria:
. Last start finished 1st
. Showing the highest odds for a win, using IASBET Fixed Price Win.
. If more than one selection, bet on both.

CAULFIELD
Race 6: 13-TAOS PLEASURE (2), $41. (LOL!)
Race 7: 5-OUR SPUR (1), $26
Race 8: 14-ETON (2), $9.00

--------------------
Go for Broke Gold System v666.

Selection Criteria:
. 3 selections (where possible)
. Last start finished 1st
. Showing the highest odds for a win, using IASBET Fixed Price Win.
. If more than one selection has the same odds, select one more horse with the next highest odds.

CAULFIELD
Race 6: 13-TAOS PLEASURE (2) $41, 1-COCINERO $11, 12-STAR ROSE (7) $9
Race 7: 5-OUR SPUR (1), $26, 4-YOUTHS EDGE (8) $15, 10-LECTRICE (9) $9
Race 8: 14-ETON (2) $9.00

Lets see how we go!

[crash]

Star Rose to win !

[pengo]

Star Rose to win !

Nope! but one of the selections did come in.. Will post the final results etc after race 8 has run.

[pengo]

The BESTEST GOLD SYSTEM EVAR v1337
CAULFIELD
Race 6: UNPAID
Race 7: UNPAID
Race 8: UNPAID

Bet 3
Return 0
P/L -3
---------------------

Go for Broke Gold system v666
CAULFIELD
Race 6: 1-COCINERO $11,
Race 7: UNPAID
Race 8: UNPAID

Bet 7
Return 11
P/L 4

-----------------------
for my information :)
Race 6: C NEWITT/ROBBIE GRIFFITHS
Race 7: D NIKOLIC/RODNEY DOUGLAS
Race 8: DEAN HOLLAND/ROBERT SMERDON

[topsy99]

take it quietly i got miss badoura and cocinera i missed out on lectrice and our spur.
but was okay day.
but i wouldnt be taking short odds on anything many horses are not really likely to win two in a row.
son of spartacus and ima khan in bunbury were under the odds and bits of hacks.
sydney was a poor meeting didnt bet.
let adelaide r7 go as too difficult only listed last start winner was green machine and he qualified in 2004 which was too long ago.
bet of the day was cocinera with a last start listed win to his credit.

[pengo]

if you rekon a horse is unlikely to go 2 in a row, would it be better to look at horses that have placed 2nd, 3rd and firth? Maybe look at the margin they lost by?

[lomaca]

if you rekon a horse is unlikely to go 2 in a row, would it be better to look at horses that have placed 2nd, 3rd and firth? Maybe look at the margin they lost by?

Is it perchance that you are slowly approaching handicapping maybe?
If so, Welcome brother, and may the form and class, guide you to your financial dreams.
Good luck

[wesmip1]

Iomeca,

Favs return around 86-90% with a strike rate of around 30%. I do not know any staking method that could (in practice) turn that type of loss with such a low strike rate into a profit. That would just be crazy.

But progressive staking plans do work with some systems/selection techniques (even if they are showing a small loss).

Good Luck.

[lomaca]

But progressive staking plans do work with some systems/selection techniques (even if they are showing a small loss).



It is actually "LOMACA" in lower case.
Wesmip1!
I will not argue about it, the case was made as far as I understood that "a losing system can be made profitable by staking methods", sorry it cannot be done!
Now I read that <b>some</b> can be turned around, sorry (unless they sometimes win sometimes lose, but overall they are in profit), that is also untrue.
If you take the only valid test, that is, bet on every selection, never stop if in front, never miss a bet, if the system is a losing one, in the end you <b>will</b> lose no matter how much or little you bet.
Luck may favor you and you will profit for a time but eventually the crunch will come, or the crunch comes sooner than expected.
As far as I can see, if you can make it profitable by manipulating the method by stopping when in front, or betting different amounts, or not betting on some, then it will work on level stakes too, meaning it was in the + all the time you just did not see it.
But never mind, each to his own.
Good luck

[Chrome Prince]

I concur.
You cannot make 10 plus 8 equal 20 in the longrun.
You can fake it for a brief period, but 10 + 8 will aways equal 18 and not 20.

[pengo]

Is it perchance that you are slowly approaching handicapping maybe?
If so, Welcome brother, and may the form and class, guide you to your financial dreams.
Good luck

Sorry I'm new to all of this, i thought handicaping was just to do with making a horse carry a heavier weight, to give the other horses a chance.

Do you look and 2nd, 3rd & 4th finishers in their last race and what lengths they were beaten by in selecting a horse? Then if its showing value with the odds its paying you'd back it? So basically you know you won't win every bet but because its "good value", when it does pay it makes up all loses and then some?

Well I've been slowly working my way towards that sort of selection system, am I on th right track? What lengths beaten by is acceptable, 1? I'm guessing 1 length is the length of a whole horse? If its beaten by one whole length surely that bad?

[Chrome Prince]

Sorry I'm new to all of this, i thought handicaping was just to do with making a horse carry a heavier weight, to give the other horses a chance.

Do you look and 2nd, 3rd & 4th finishers in their last race and what lengths they were beaten by in selecting a horse? Then if its showing value with the odds its paying you'd back it? So basically you know you won't win every bet but because its "good value", when it does pay it makes up all loses and then some?

Well I've been slowly working my way towards that sort of selection system, am I on th right track? What lengths beaten by is acceptable, 1? I'm guessing 1 length is the length of a whole horse? If its beaten by one whole length surely that bad?

Pengo, there are a lot of variables when it comes to handicapping, you have to take the whole race as an entity and measure each horse against the opposition, rather than just rating each horse solely on past achievements.
Of course, you have to measure each horse, but it is in context of today's race.

For example, 1 length beaten is quite good depending the class of the race, the distance, the barrier the opposition, the settling position of the horse and whether the horse was running home or fading at the end.

It is a complicated matrix of variables.

[topsy99]

the item that i was talking about was the "gold system" it required the horse to win its last start.

as i only bet on listed horses i restrict myself to those.

i have found that horses that have a long period since qualifying in listed company have a poort strike rate and winning two in a row is unlikely.

if we extend the system to 2nds and other placing then we are onto another system.

however restricting it to just listed horses is a downside as many horses on the up win from restricted class into city class and then win at good odds.
but i would trust this to older horses.

[topsy99]

in my previous post i accidently said i would trust this to older horses i meant i wouldnt trust older horses to win two in a row but then again thats why we look for the fluke result isnt it.
so i wouldnt take short odds.

[Chrome Prince]

That system does work, because the odds are greater than the strike rate - simple really ;)

[lomaca]

Hi!
I ran some tests over the past results re. favoreds winning and losing by staking.
Found some interesting facts.
Stands to reason that level stakes bets are losing.

If you multiply your successive bets (after losing) by less then ~1.6 you will still lose!

Now this number will change with strike rate and avg. odds and only applies to TAB favs.'s strike rate and return.

If you multiply your bets over the 1.6 mark, in the end you will win, <b>BUT</b> you can be down as much as -$751.00 and your next bet is $450.00 (this is on a 1 unit base one month only)

If you go to double your bets after losing, it becomes impractical because the losses can be huge, and the largest bet to recover, be over $16000.
It would ruin the odds, even on a Saturday, and placing it with other than the TAB well nigh impossible.

So there you go folks, if you are game enough and want to have a go at the favs. and have plenty of money to tie you over, keep in mind that magic "1.6" multiplier.
It's a fine line between trying to win more and able to finance it.
I personally can't recommend it, the risks are just too great.

[crash]

Hi!
I

If you multiply your successive bets (after losing) by less then ~1.6 you will still lose!

Now this number will change with strike rate and avg. odds and only applies to TAB favs.'s strike rate and return.

If you multiply your bets over the 1.6 mark, in the end you will win, <b>BUT</b> you can be down as much as -$751.00 and your next bet is $450.00 (this is on a 1 unit base one month only)




Anyone silly enough to bet $751 to try and win a tiny profit deserves to lose for sure.

[lomaca]

Hi!

If you multiply your bets over the 1.6 mark, in the end you will <b>win</b>

Before anyone gets carried away by <b>"win"</b>, I meant: from time to time you will be way ahead (in the +) but so will you be behind from time to time (in the -).
But in the end you will lose!!! How you manage to stop in time and start again may actually give you an advantage for a long time, but if you make a mistake it can also ruin you.
I am sure it is all just theory, because no sane person would risk the amount of money required, nor would anyone around here have the bank to do so!
If I'm mistaken and you have the bank, and take the risk, then it's upon your head!
DON'T blame me!!! I warned you!!

[lomaca]

Here are two xls files to show the diff. between increasing the losing bet by 1.5 and 1.6.
This is on favoreds on the TAB!
The last two columns are relevant here, the last one is the cumulative return, the sec. last one is the amount bet.
Before that, is the cumulative return for one unit.
Remember the minimum bet on the TAB is $3.00!!! I work on one unit!
This is for the month of Sep. 2007.
You can see how far the draw-down can go, and how much you have to bet just on the one unit basis.
Hope it sobers up some people.
Cheers

[Chrome Prince]

Yeah, bet $10,000 to win $10 on a favourite.

The favourite might be a 4/1 favourite and you are backing it at odds of less than $1.01, that's why it doesn't work, you are ensuring the worst possible value on the largest bets.

[pengo]

Well, I rekon that longshot system I posted where you select a couple of horses showing half decent odds that have won previously might be good. Maybe only bet them if the horse showing good value in the odds has a certain jockey and trainer combo. The logic being you are putting your money on the jockey & trainer since they have shown good form as well as the horse.

Since its been mentioned thats more often than not horses don't win again after winning, since its got good odds for a win, place bet instead of win bet since the place bet should be good value to.

[pengo]

FYI

A quick look at the non-maiden races today at Mornington has 2 out of the 4 races been won by a horse that won its last race. Both of those winners returning >$9 for a win..

There might still be a profit to be made in a system backing a horse showing odds of $9+ that placed 1st in its last start?

Granted the sample size is quite small :). So i'm going to track the winners for a week and see how many out of how many races were winners in their last race.

[TheSystemKing]

Yeah, bet $10,000 to win $10 on a favourite.

The favourite might be a 4/1 favourite and you are backing it at odds of less than $1.01, that's why it doesn't work, you are ensuring the worst possible value on the largest bets.
This in my humble opinion is complete trickery.

Since when does any punter take odds of $1.01 about a $5.00 horse?

NEVER.

If $10,000 is wagered on a horse at $5.00, then the odds for that wager ARE $5.00, NOT $1.01!!!

The amount of a wager needed to recover past losses, whether the wager is $5 or $5,000, DOES NOT alter the odds obtained by that wager on a horse.

[Chrome Prince]

Well you've just shown that any credence to your method has no merit.
You cannot concieve the basics of odds so how can you expect to turn a loss into a profit???


I bet $10,000 to win $10 that's a lot less than 4/1

It doesn't matter what they pay me, if after all those losses I make a measley $10.00

Effective odds is what you're getting!

[TheSystemKing]

You cannot concieve the basics of odds so how can you expect to turn a loss into a profit??? I bet $10,000 to win $10 that's a lot less than 4/1. It doesn't matter what they pay me, if after all those losses I make a measley $10.00. Effective odds is what you're getting!
Again trickery in the use of the word "win".

The effective odds are what you get, not lower than what you get! If you back a horse at 4/1 those ARE the effective odds you get on the wager.

But if we used your word trickery method, then if we are level staking with $100 bets and are down $1000 and back a $5.00 winner the "effective odds" of that bet would not be $5.00 BUT instead "minus $7.00" because we would still be down $600 after the winner!!!!!!

[Chrome Prince]

The only person you are tricking is yourself.
It is a lot different level stakes and you know it, or at least I hope you do.
I can't argue with someone who cannot grasp the basics.
Crash and I have had our moments, but at least he argues logic, and I respect him for it.
I can't respect this illogical and uninformed train of thought.
I'm out.

[Chrome Prince]

It just dawned on me...you are Bert :D

[stugots]

I am sure it is all just theory, because no sane person would risk the amount of money required, nor would anyone around here have the bank to do so!
If I'm mistaken and you have the bank, and take the risk, then it's upon your head!
DON'T blame me!!! I warned you!!

plenty of "sane" people do have the cash required & the balls to have a go, my old mate is a perfect example

the 1st time i witnessed his doubling up prowess i recall being stunned to put it mildly, & the old ************ did clean up that day. from memory he kept that run going for a couple of weeks, winning every day at the casino &/or tab, then gave it all back + his stake & more within a couple hours

fun? for some who can genuinely afford it
lose the job/house/wife/kids? for the rest who cant

[crash]

plenty of "sane" people do have the cash required & the balls to have a go, my old mate is a perfect example

the 1st time i witnessed his doubling up prowess i recall being stunned to put it mildly, & the old ************ did clean up that day. from memory he kept that run going for a couple of weeks, winning every day at the casino &/or tab, then gave it all back + his stake & more within a couple hours

fun? for some who can genuinely afford it
lose the job/house/wife/kids? for the rest who cant

I remember a bloke who came into a fair chunk of money. He went from a two bit player like most of us here, to an overnight 'pro'. using a progressive staking method. His opinion on everything racing including punting methods [in his eyes], was from then on better than anyone else's because he now considered himself a 'pro'.
At the track every week playing with the big boys and betting big bets etc. About 4-6 weeks later he was obviously broke, no longer went to the track and had become a $2 place punter. Don't see him around nowadays.

[Shaun]

I had an uncle who thought it was easy, he chucked in his job and started to bet full time using a similar idea.

His plan was to win $200 a day 6 days a week backing favs, his plan was to bet to prices to win his $200 plus losses for the day.

A day at Warwick Farm with no favs getting up wiped out his bank plus more took him a while to get another job.

I don't think he started with a large bank, i remember dad telling me the family lived the high life for a couple of months untill it all crashed then they were luck if they could afford the mortgage each month.

Don't get fooled before you start putting real cash down do some research and paper testing for 6 months, this goes for any method.

[King Cugat]

yawn

....topic sorta seems to go around every site....every few months. Nearly joined one the other week until i was asked to pay for the priviledge, cant say they would would have let this thing keep going though........... 1 of the 5 members over there would have pulled it for sure.....with a little given on the side of course.

I went back in threads and geez there were heaps of post-ers in here once.....these sort of threads just drag people away i spose?

x-mas, indian batting and the gold system thread.....will be lucky if my head doesnt drop from the excit mipwerogni9ewr0[nhe0[wghh80bv0[earn8b0eb80nebn[e0ar[rn8b0[ernabe890ab0[aner-9vg]jwvfgo9nuhers0njh0[wenh83u9-2?oiweuiouionioer9089rgnionio890wefjkopfaopwqusanklxcznmbcnmbjopsdfopjjjiowe jhiottttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt

Sorry, must be nap time again.

[Marcus]

I don't think what Im quoting from you is correct King Cugat. This thred has already had over 90 posts and more than 2,500 views. I've also enjoyed reading it. .....these sort of threads just drag people away i spose?

[King Cugat]

Marcus, what have you learnt?

You musta got your copy of the free system before they ran out.

[Mr Quaddie]

If you put a dollar on every $26 chance in the paper you will eventually get one. you will find that a $26 chance comes up in at least 1 in 25 times, so you will make a profit at least. try it and see.

[Chrome Prince]

No mate, 3% strike rate
21.79% loss on turnover

[crash]

If anyone is going to bet blind like that [27 bets trying to strike a winner at $27]. May as well back the favorites of a meetings first 3 races. They usually have the smallest fields, no great odds but a good chance winning or losing ...just a little.

[Top Rank]

I have been away for a while and have only just read this thread, but I just wanted to give King Cugat the thumbs up for some of his work early on in this thread. Comedy Gold, had me laughing, keep it up can never get enough laughs.

[King Cugat]

.

[topsy99]

i wouldnt knock the thread. it is voluntary. a good idea may come up but remember that we are talking about gambling.

i refer to the "gold system" that i threw into the ring on wednesday the problem with systems is you have to run them and attend to them all the time. going on past records is misleading as it assumes you were paying attention when they were running.

in my case last week i backed conquering in hobart and i worked launceston racing for last wednesday but forgot to print it and back the meeting.
the first time conquering paid $12 - on wednesday it won its next start at $18. but i was in the car listening to the races.

that is the difficulty with systems we tend to do it at our convenience - just enjoy the odd win and not try to make a meal of it.

[TheSystemKing]

Can someone please answer the following:
How many bets are needed before you can confidently say your system makes a profit? 10, 100, 1000? Or more? Now on top of that what odds do you use? Your home state tote? Best tote? Bookies starting price? Bookies top fluctuation?

[Chrome Prince]

Can someone please answer the following:
How many bets are needed before you can confidently say your system makes a profit? 10, 100, 1000? Or more? Now on top of that what odds do you use? Your home state tote? Best tote? Bookies starting price? Bookies top fluctuation?

It is not the number of bets that reflect the stability or viability of a system, well it is, but in conjunction with other indicators.

You need to consider:
Strike rate
Average Dividend
Maximum Dividend
Profit divided by the Maximum dividend

Most important is the ratio of winners making up the profit.

The odds you use are the odds you plan to use.

It's no good with 1000 selections and one of your winners was 500/1
However you might have 1,000 selections and the maximum winner was $5.00

It's a whole different outcome.

I don't use number of bets per se, I split it into years and look at the profit for each year, if a system makes a profit every year, it's a good'un :D

[lomaca]

if a system makes a profit every year, it's a good'un :D

Good observation CP!
The end of year result is the most important but also you have to have at least over 40 bets a month (betting on met. races only).
You also have to break down your betting results at least into monthly chunks, you have a much better understanding then, of how you are traveling.
No use getting all your profit in one month, even if the year was in the black!
I am treading water in Feb. would go backwards in March, (if I persisted with my main handicapping-rating)
Sept. and Oct. are the most profitable, and I'd loved to know, why, two month would be bad, two excellent, and the rest just good?
Cheers

[King Cugat]

Now on top of that what odds do you use Are you asking about where to bet OR where do you go to backtrack past divies?

If the 1st (and you can go back and check via tab sites with extra time anyway): Disable, Bin, Eliminate, Close all TAB accounts. You cannot win long term unless you have 1 of an all-mighty system.
Go to Sporstsbet.com.au and get the best of the 3 states as a starter until you understand what your selections are bringing you and then what you expect from them.
From your previous posts you seem to be a high strike rate low divie man. Which is what i am only place betting so its a lot easier expectation wise as the margin bands is smaller.
I know what i should be getting as dividends from the 3 states before they cross the line.
I expect:
1 of the 3 atleast to be right on my expectations,
one to be below because its carrying a little extra weight by means of support on the individual race or carry overs from all ups etc.
The 3rd one i expect to exceed my expectations for no reason other then they went a little easier on it.
After all this time i can now sit on betfair and match a price that i believe will be that of the 1st or 3rd one >>> be on or exceed my expectations from the best tote. << This is something you can only get through experiance with your own individual system....again...based on knowing over time what you expect. Nobody can teach you this. Its gut instinct.
If i dont see what i like then i go best of 3 and know the odds are, that i will get that over expectation dividend....maybe not on a particular race but long term. Theres a percentage of my POT that's a little extra because of knowing what my expectations are and looking for that + more.
Yesterday Dark Target in Ascot paid $1.04 / $1.04 / $1.50 unitab. I expected to get $1.20. i would have taken $1.25 - $1.30+ on betfair. As it turned out 2 totes were below my expectations but unitab was over well and truly. The same for a few others like Sweet Julia $1.40 / $1.40 vic $1.90. i was expecting $1.50 tote and would take betfair at $1.50+ to secure it.
At the end of the day you must know your system back the front, know what divies you need + want, sit on a best of the 3 site on the 2nd last page before process screen ready incase your betfair expectations arent met.
Chrome knows how to answer your other question about how many bets gone through until you think you have something......
I use moving average bands myself just like the sharemarket. Not only can they help in knowing when your due or can expect a pull back, but can also tell you where your system should sit, or if a new system where it looks like its going to sit.

[Bhagwan]

One way to analyse a system's viability is to have 3 or more lots of 150 batches of bets.
If it makes a profit in one lot but breaks nearly even on the other 2 batches it tells us there is some potential.

Another way is to break up the stats over odd & even numberered races .
This will tell us if there is a major disparity in the results.

If there is a huge difference , it tells us that the overall results may have been an annomily & needs futher working..

It's a strong idea to have the stats over 4-5 years.
I have seen systems work brilliantly, say over 3 years only to see it fall in a heap in the 4th year.

If one can get the SR consistant over that period , the next challenge is trying & seek the best prices.
Trying to squeeze a profit using single TAB prices is very difficult longterm, compared to best of 3 TOTS e.g. Sportsbet or Betfair or Bookies.

Its a strong idea to have a min. price acceptable.

After using Betfair, one will see how much we have been ripped by the TABs.
all these years.

If one is using multiple systems , I have found it more profitable , not to double up on selections already selected by the other systems.
The reason being is, if a horse is selected say 3 times, it does not mean that it has 3 times the chance of winning so why place 3 times the amount of money & risk on it.

I feel it is important to try & strive for a consistant SR first, of approx 22-25% if win betting with some profit, any less & one must be prepared for long runs of outs of 30+.
The profit will always vary, month to month, that's why it is so important to use a medium that can maximise a price that is better than a single TAB.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

System that make a profit for three years and then fall in a hole in the fourth are faulty in some way, the results look good, but they don't check out the viability correctly.
PPM are the biggest perpetrators(?) of this.
Sometimes the distribution of winners by price range are completely out of whack and this is a big flag to backfitted systems.
The other is when you have Miss Finland rated at 400/1 and it wins easily at odds on. :D
A very big warning sign, that a whole bunch chose to ignore.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Iomaca,
SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN
Heres a staking plan that you might like to run your figures over.
I call it the Square Root staking plan.
The idea is to go up one unit after each looser & restart once any profit is made.

If a winner is struck which does not clear the slate , one uses the calculator to input the total current loss, then hit the Square Root key.
This is now the next bet amount to be placed before we start going up the ladder again until the next winner.
Bank needed $1200
Example.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11w(3.00)
Loss currently $25 after winner, now hit square root key = 5 units is now the next bet then 6, 7, 8, ect. until another winner gets up.
Keep doing this until 2+ units in front, then start again.

This should show a profit where normally a LOT is shown.

I have found its a good idea to stop betting for the day, if 9 losers in a row presents itself on the day.
Then continue where one left of the next day.
Try & only target races where the Fav is paying $2.80+

The bets will ususlly stay in control without having to outlay huge bet amounts to make it recover.

Cheers.

[swampfox]

Chrome,


You talk about ratio of winners. What sort of number should one be looking for?

Happy New Year

[topsy99]

i go dizzy looking at the contortions being used to punt.
surely the systems and punting methods themselves have a downside effect on good punting.

i have found that it is almost impossible to follow a system due to many situations such as work, tab not operating. e.g. i had the winner of the kalgoorlie cup ready to punt but the tasmanian tab decided not to operate on kalgoorlie that day. it won at $55.
then we forget the race, the phone rings, the wife want something done etc.

dont become captive to your system and seek a more direct approach of selections.
good luck but the system would stop me before the horses get to the starting gate.

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome,


You talk about ratio of winners. What sort of number should one be looking for?

Happy New Year

Divide the profit by the average win dividend, you'd be looking at a minimum of ten making up the profit.

But, divide it again by the maximum dividend and if you get a small number, it's pretty shaky.

The more the better.

[wesmip1]

Thought I would add some real results to this thread (and to boast).

I devised an approriate staking method for a new system I started running a few days ago (started on the 28th Dec).

Since starting to place actual bets level stakes shows the profit to be a loss of 2%. The staking plan I am using is showing a profit of 700% ( i think that is right).

I have turned a test bank(real money) of $100 into over $7000 in the last few days.. real money not play money ....

I have moved away from trying to be right 100% of the time and have been concentrating on staking. To me getting the correct staking plan is MORE important then working out better ways of selecting the winners.

Good Luck.

[Mr Quaddie]

can you post your selections?

[wesmip1]

I assume you mean selections to date. Here they are.

28th Dec
Wagga R1 - Inside Fifty - 2nd
Coffs Harbour R3 - Grenades - LOST

29th Dec
Corowa R3 - Pyang - 2nd
Rosehill R1 - Why're You Waiting -2nd
Stony Creek R1 - Threatened - 2nd
Doomben R1 - King Leonidas - 2nd
Rosehill R2 - Guillotine - WIN
Mooney Valley R3 - The Fonz - 2nd
Gawler R2 - Planet Ice - WIN
Gold Coast R3 - Headlight - WIN
Rockhampton R1 - Jusforsatisfaction - WIN
Ascot R6 - Lambton Castle - 2nd
Gold Coast R5 - Tears'n'cheers - WIN
Kembla Grange R6 - Thebe - WIN
Gold Coast R6 - Line By Line - 3rd
Rockhampton R5 - Danzamonkey - WIN

30th Dec
cranbourne Rce 2 - Dance Of Danes - WIN
scone Rce 2 - Ready To Impress - 2nd
Hobart Rce 8 - Urban Waltz - WIN

31st Dec
Echuca R4 - Melbachenko WIN
Echuca R5 - De Mars WIN

1st Jan
Inverall R1 - Admiral Nediym - 2nd
Mornington R5 - Stage Presence - WIN

2nd Jan
Eagle Farm R1 - Pashionately Yours - WIN
Seymour R2 - Hay Lover - 2nd
Wyong R2 - Sportsground - 2nd
Wyong R4 - Hidden Assets - 2nd
Eagle Farm R7 - Rockem - WIN

I won't be giving out selections before the date .... why would I because how do I benefit from giving them out .... They are going to lose on level stakes (-2%) and people would complain.

If you check out the above selections you will probably work out the main factors being looked at anyway and any decent handicapper would have come up with similar selections.

Good Luck.

[crash]

If you check out the above selections you will probably work out the main factors being looked at anyway and any decent handicapper would have come up with similar selections.

Good Luck.

I think 'any decent handicapper' would probably disagree with you there. 14 winners from 27 bets is a SR of more than 50% winners along with almost a 100% place SR !


I don't know the prices, but I can only see a win system not a loss system, unless of course you had a complete reversal of selection ability from hopeless to genius handicapper/system creator.

Even if the winners were only paying $2 you would still be in front, but I'm sure they were mostly paying more than that.

From 29th Dec. Rosehill r2 to 1st Jan. you had a outstanding SR of 12 winners from 17 bets that were all e/w winners as well !

As a place system you had only 1 loss from 27 bets. Another remarkable selection achievement for any punter and the results from 27 bets is a bit beyond the reach of punting luck.

If you can keep it up [or anywhere near it] you have a license to print money, regardless how you stake your bets.

Well done!

[crash]

I should add of course that if you meant a -2% loss on the above selections, it probably means that most of your winners were odds-on or close to it. Regardless though, a remarkable strike rate of winners and place getters!

[Merriguy]

http://www.propun.com.au/racing_forums/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif Of course you are right, Crash, and if you go back through the selections Wes has kindly provided you will see that most are odds on or close to it.

It reminds me of some posts in the Ausrace forum from some years ago (a number of people on this forum would remember what I am referring to). There was a guy there who maintained that he could come out way ahead with a progression system (for the place in his case). He was howled down over and over again; but he held on to his belief, and probably is still doing it despite the fact "that it can't be done". In his figures you only had to have a 67% strike rate for the place to be a winner.

Must try it again!!!

[wesmip1]

crash, Merriguy,

Yes most of the winners are odds on. The 2% loss is on unitab figures so best tote or betfair would push this into profit ( I looked at betfair and it made it roughly a 10% profit).

The thing to remember is they are NOT all odds on selections. They are p[ut through filters to eliminate false favs. The filters are faily easy to work out too as there are not too many.

I suspect this run of selections has been a bit lucky but you need luck every once in a while.

Good Luck.

[crash]

Well I think wesmip1 should just keep doing what he is doing. Whatever progressive staking system he is using he is making money with his incredible win and/or place strike rate.

I did check the prices and for the win there was a small loss, for the place only a reasonable profit and for e/w a tiny profit. 0.3 of a unit. so the win only is a loss at level stakes.

[Shaun]

wesmip1

Do you mind if i ask what form guide you use to make thos selections?

[Mark]

Wes, I'm not having a go, but $100 into $7000 over a matter of days, on mostly odds on shots that show a level stakes loss..............that's one extremely aggressive staking plan you're using! A run of 4 or 5 losers and you must be out of the game. Good luck with it.

[wesmip1]

Do you mind if i ask what form guide you use to make thos selections?
I use the formguides at racingandsports and e_x_p_e_r_t_f_o_r_m
Good luck.
<!-- / message -->

[wesmip1]

Wes, I'm not having a go, but $100 into $7000 over a matter of days, on mostly odds on shots that show a level stakes loss..............that's one extremely aggressive staking plan you're using! A run of 4 or 5 losers and you must be out of the game. Good luck with it.
I agree with that .... But for now I am happy to go spend the money... and restart with a new $100 bank.

[Grand Armee]

Wesmip - at a guess, your staking plan is a parlay type plan, something like, "take the profit, divide it by 4 (or some number like that) and put it all up onto the next 4 selections", or something similar. Looks like a parlay type result to me.

[wesmip1]

Grand Armee,

Yes it is ... not quite as you wrote it but close enough. It works because I hit a long run of winners (and place getters). Today I had 3 bets ( with maybe a couple more tonight at Canterbury) for 1 winner and 2 seconds.

Good luck

[Chrome Prince]

That is an achievement to be proud of Wesmip1, be aware that you would need to keep up the strike rate to continue success, but I believe you hit a purple patch.

You've got your money, I'd be careful though.

The housewives that took on Frankie Dettori all up took home a fortune but had they done this prior and later they would have made no money at all.

I'm not knocking you because you've done it, but I don't believe you will make money continuing to do it.
You temporarily compounded the odds in your favour, there will be far more losses than profits, the wins will be more money and the losses less, but the frequency of loss will discount any profits.

In my opinion it can always be done, but never sustained.

Had I all upped or partially all upped favourites in the UK I would have made a fortune tonight, it happens frequently, but not frequently enough to turn a profit.

[wesmip1]

Chrome Prince,

You are right .. I think I was lucky too but while it continues I will keep going ...

Good Luck.

[Stix]

Well dones Wes, hope it continues for you ;)

[wesmip1]

Stix,

My run ended with 35. Still made a very nice profit from it. Since them I have had 2 more runs of 6 successes and 10 successes. Not quite as good but still profitable on each run.

Selections : 64
Winners : 37
Placings : 59

Good Luck.