Some interesting stats for odds and winners

[pengo]

From Dec 1 to Dec 22, below is how many times for a particular odds it has been the winner. This is for city tracks where all 3 places paid a dividend:

($-Frequency)
2-6
3-5
4-8
5-4
6-7
7-4
8-2
9-2
10-2
11-1
12-1
14-1
15-1
20-2
21-1
26-3
30-1
34-1
67-1
37-1

Interesting that a winner with final dividend of $26 paid 3 times in this month for the city meets tracked..

It might be profitable to bet on a horse if it is showing win odds of $26.xx. Out of 54 races, it paid 3 times which would have left you with a return of 78 units after spending 54 units, a profit of 24 units. This is assuming of course every race tracked at a horse showing win odds at 26.xx which isn't the case. So you are most likely looking at more profit since you would not bet on each of the 54 races tracked.

[Mr Quaddie]

final div will be difficult to work from as its only shown after jump time. if this can be worked from pre-post newspaper odds then people might be able to benefit more.

you should split it to to city tracks in brisbane, sydney, adelaide, melbourne, perth.

you should make a tally for each city plus an overall tally.

[pengo]

yes, i agree the problem is the odds fluctuate, tho with the $26 odds, I doubt being as its a long shot that it's moved much.

Only doing VIC city for now.

It maybe worthwhile to comeup with a system that would select a highly rated horse, maybe proven at the distance its running that is showing odds of $4.xx or $6.xx for a win. Since based on the stats I've provided, those two have come in the most for a win (excluding $2 as its not good value).

It will most likely not be the race favourite tho if its paying $4.xx or $6.xx.

Unfortunately unless someone can provide a link, I can't look up the form of the horses that have won with those odds. It would be good to check their form leading up to that race and what their rating was before the race that they won. To see if there is any common factors that could help in formulating selection criteria for future selections.
---

Just taking a quick look at IASBet.com, SEYMOUR Race 2:

1st 4 EL DUCE, paid a fixed price of $4.80

Granted that was a non-city maiden, so I wouldn't have bet on it :)

[pengo]

Stupid forum restrictions... post continued here :P


Also, in race 1 the horse showing an open price of $4 came in 1st (its fixed is $5 and there was 1 other runner with an open of $4 but paid $6 fixed). In race 2 there was one other showing $4.xx in the open but less than $4 for fixed. With the winner showing an open of $4 and a fixed price of $4.80 (so within range [4-5]).

So that said, you might select a horse doing as follows:

1. City meet
2. Non-maiden
3. Minimum of 8 runners
4. IAS Open showing $4.xx but a fixed price of $4-$5.

In doing the above you would have 2 out of 3 winners for Seymour so far, with the selection being the 3rd placer for race 3.

FYI there is a horse showing odds of $26 for race 4, no 13 (Terrific value lets see if it holds up to its namesake! [update: nup guess not]).

Unsure if you would each way or just win bet, you would be 2 for 3 for win betting or 5 for 6 bets if doing each way.

Now further to all of that, in Race 4 there was no runner showing $4 but the winner was paying $6 (granted there was one other paying $6).

David Hayes has done alright today too, maybe put in a trainer restriction? For instance when it meets all off the mentioned criteria have the final criteria be that it has to be a horse trained by: Hayes, Freedman, Price, Laing, Ellerton or Moody (they seem to be the top vic trainers).

[pengo]

David Hayes has done alright today too, maybe put in a trainer restriction? For instance when it meets all off the mentioned criteria have the final criteria be that it has to be a horse trained by: Hayes, Freedman, Price, Laing, Ellerton or Moody (they seem to be the top vic trainers).Also include [Danny] O'Brien he seems to do alright too.