to lay or not to lay

[stugots]

been trialling a lay selection method based around my ratings, & seeing as how others have been willing to put their heads on the chopping block, here goes, will post daily until i am howled out the joint in shame or the accolades just become too much

i dont usually bet until <5min to the jump & as such the max acceptable betfair price is $10

sat 29/12/07

mr1 1 BUCA DI BACCO
mr5 1 JE NE SAIS PAS
sr4 6 SUBTLE GLANCE
br1 4 MAJOR BOYINGTON
br4 3 DOWN TO EARTH
br6 9 POIYM

let the forum curse begin...

[AngryPixie]

I'm with you on Down To Earth.

[Bhagwan]

Welcome to the System of the Down.

Cheers & good luck.

[stugots]

sr4 & br4 - couldnt get matched at $10 or <, the rest ok -

collect $8.0
bet $4.0
commission $0.2
net $3.8
pot 95.0%

church today so no selects

[Merriguy]

Just been to church myself --- which, in my case at least, doesn't preclude getting onto here afterwards!

Still, to each his/her own.

Congratulation on yestereday's picks. They all saluted, even if some couldn't be matched. Is there a place here for Maria's idea of putting the bets on at 10 (say) and just seeing what happens. One, or perhaps both, might have been matched. Of course that means at times you will offering more than the starting odds --- though from what I saw of yesterday's they were all pretty close to that $10 figure anyway.

[stugots]

thanks merriguy, the cutoff price is a bit of a dilemma, at least for me, used to go as high as $16 to get on but found it just doesnt pay, those big drifters somehow find a way to get up on occasion, and (for example) regularly matching at $14 about a $8.50 chance is a fools game, was for this fool anyway

still a couple of yesterdays picks with solid support ran particularly poorly, which is always pleasing:)

[Bhagwan]

I beleive one of the stronger ways of lay bet placement, is betting to odds with a fixed liability.

Example.
Liability is say $20 a race. Using a bank of $400.
2/1 into $20 = $10 O/L
10/1 into $20 = $2 O/L
20/1 into $20 = $1 O/L

This way , one can have a go at almost anything knowing that the liability is limited.

One can use the Bet Trader Pro program (Free) to place bets under $6 on Betfair.

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

I agree Bhagwan,

I use Gruss for this and lay to payout and liability depending.

[stugots]

31/12/07

qr1 9 GOLDEN HAIR
qr3 5 FUNOFTHEFAIR
qr7 7 PICNIC POINT
nr6 9 SPORTS LAUREATE
vr2 2 NEOSTAR
vr7 9 PRUSSIAN STAR

[stugots]

nr6 an accident @ $6.00, unmatched qr1 & qr7

collect $2.0
bet $4.0
commission $0.2
net -$2.2
pot -53.8%


to date
collect $10.00
bet $8.00
commission $0.35
net $1.65
pot 20.6%

[stugots]

01/01/08

sr1 7 FRENCHS FOREST
sr4 3 CATCH THE BIRD
mr2 7 PRINCESS GISELLA
mr4 8 JUNGLE RULER
mr5 7 ROAD TO ATHENS
mr6 3 GREAT IS GREAT

pity cant get on the perth cup, would have a go at dakas gem

[stugots]

ouch, back to drawing board