prepost markets online

[stugots]

just wondering if anyone can advise if they know of any reliable or useful prepost markets available online

[Bhagwan]

Check out racingandsports.

It's as good as the newspapers & has the scratchings taken into account.

It will be shown in fractional odds e.g. 2/1, but by clicking the button on the bottom RH corner , it will convert over to decimal odds e.g. $3.00.

Cheers.

[lomaca]

Check out racingandsports.

It's as good as the newspapers & has the scratchings taken into account.

It will be shown in fractional odds e.g. 2/1, but by clicking the button on the bottom RH corner , it will convert over to decimal odds e.g. $3.00.

Cheers.
Hello Bhagwan,
do you have any idea how close this follows the final outcome?
I am not so much interested in the actual odds, more in the order of them, like if it's first, sec, third selection there, will it wind up the same in the end, in the actual betting?
I am talking ballpark figures here.
If you can confirm or, if you have actual past records (in any format) that you could pass on, I could check it. It would be much appreciated. In return I could show you my research which was very promising.
Thanks
PS. this applies to anyone having past records of this.

[Bhagwan]

Its always difficult to have a pre-post being accurate to market price, seeing that it may have been created 24 hours prior.
Most Pre-post markets are created around a book value of 160% as opposed to say TABs 118% & Betfair at approx 105% maybe this is done to allow for possible scratchings.

If a horse is showing as odds-on , one can almost guarantee it will be odds on in the actual market , even then, what part of the odds on figure is accurate.
Same for horses which are 2/1.

I have been informed that the WA TAB has an accurate pre-post market in the lower price range also.
One has to first sign up (free) with a code & pass word to gain access.
They have a strange habit of wiping out the pre-post market once the race starts, so it's not possible to go over any past results.

They dont always cover the Country & Provincial races for the East Coast.

Cheers.

[lomaca]

Its always difficult to have a pre-post being accurate to market price,
Thanks Bhagwan.
The accuracy of the prepost versus actual market price is irrelevant. What is important, is the <b>order</b> of pricing: ie. does a horse shown for example as the fifth, for arguments sake, in the prepost market, wind up as the fifth at jump time? (at least most of the time?)
Cheers

[Bhagwan]

I just re-read you query.
Here are the percentage SR for horses position in the pre-post market.

There maybe 2 or 3 horses sharing the same market line.

Position in market line order

Mk......%....Total %
1st....31.0......31.0
2nd...20.5......51.5
3rd...12.2.......63.7
4th...8.0........71.7
5th...7.3........79.0
6th...5.1........84.1
7th...4.8........88.9
8th...3.8........92.7
9th...3.4........96.1
10th...1.5.......97.6
11th...2.4......100.0

Cheers.

[lomaca]

I just re-read you query.

Thanks Bhagwan, but I think we talking sideways here, I did a research for someone, regarding a certain "favored" in order of TAB odds, not saying at the moment if sixth or second. Betting on it could be quite profitable, but due to the sudden changes in the odds before the race, it became impractical to follow the method.
But if TAB would follow the trend of some prepost market, or if I had access to past prepost records, maybe I could simulate the results and then the bets could be placed irregardless of the actual betting market. It's the order in the odds that matter not the price or the %.
I hope I make myself clear?
Good luck

[burrah]

I just re-read you query.
Here are the percentage SR for horses position in the pre-post market.

There maybe 2 or 3 horses sharing the same market line.

Position in market line order

Mk......%....Total %
1st....31.0......31.0
2nd...20.5......51.5


Cheers.Bhagwan, hope you don't mind if I intrude here. I'm testing a system, betting on every race and I'm getting 60% + strike rate backing 1st and 2nd TAB favourites. Sometimes I dutch if I can get 100% + POT , i.e profit required $50, bet has to be less than $50. If not, bet each for a flat $25.
My query is how do I work out my average dividend? so that I can test for long term viability.
An example of my confusion would be that I can dutch say $3.70 and $4.40, total $8.10 ave $4.05 but cannot dutch $2.88 and $5.30 total $8.18 ave $4.09 as POT would be less than 100%
(sometimes I bet 3 horses, maybe 5% of the time if the odds are high enough)

[stugots]

thanks bhags, just what im after

[AngryPixie]

My query is how do I work out my average dividend? so that I can test for long term viability.
An example of my confusion would be that I can dutch say $3.70 and $4.40, total $8.10 ave $4.05 but cannot dutch $2.88 and $5.30 total $8.18 ave $4.09 as POT would be less than 100%
(sometimes I bet 3 horses, maybe 5% of the time if the odds are high enough)

Burrah

Using your examples above your divi would be $2.01 for the first and $1.86 for the second. You're making two bets on one logical selection so averaging as you've done above isn't the correct way to look at it :) There are a number of variations on dutching but for the "basic" same divi from each selection it's as below.

1^3.70 = 0.2702
1^4.40 = 0.2272

0.2702 + 0.2272 = 0.4974

1^0.4974 = $2.01

===

1^2.88 = 0.3472
1^5.30 = 0.1886

0.3477 + 0.1886 = 0.5358

1^0.5358 = $1.87

[Bhagwan]

Hi Stugots, you are most welcome.

Hi Iomaca,
I see what the querie relates to now.
I did some research on this question of horse position in the pre-post market & found that the horse that is the 5th mentioned horse in the pre-post market , had the lowest LOT out of all the rankings in the pre-post including the pre-post fav. which was the 2nd lowest LOT.
Some of the run of outs were 30+ but managed to jag the odd very high payer.
As a point of interest , the LOT was less backing all first 5 in the pre-post, same amount on each, than it was backing just the pre-post Fav. on its own.

Hi Burrah,
One has to work out the combined percentage not the combined price.
What one has to do is work out the percentage price to see if it falls in the 50% range .
One way of doing this manually is divide say
1 divided by $2.88 (press %)= 34.7%
1 divided by $$5.30 ...........= 18.9%
Total 53.5%

Now change Fav from $2.88 to say $3.25
1 divided by $3.25 = 30.7%
1 divided by $5.30 = 18.9%
Total 49.6%

What I suggest, if Dutch betting is increase the price of the Fav so that the book percentage lowers down to say 50% e.g. change the $2.88 to $3.25
then place that amount on the $2.88 as if it were $3.25
Can you say what process or tool you use to calculate & place the bet into the market.
I am guessing that you are useing Betfair, using one of the bet placement tools to calculate the percentage & place the bet, if so , place the bet at say $3.25 which wont get matched , then go back into it & lower its price to make it get accepted.
What you will find is the amount stays the same & the Fav is now being used as sort of a saver .
You will either make a bit or loose a bit if the fave gets up, but clean up if the other horse gets up for you.

This is a strong way of dealing with a race where there is an odds-on fav of the 2 horses where one feels the fav has half a chance of falling over.

Another way is to only target races where there is a $3.20 fav in the race.

Here is a progression plan one may like to try with Dutch betting.
Outlay per race- 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ect.
Create a bank to go 30 bets = $620
Go up the ladder win loose or draw until one has any profit, then start again.
One needs approx. 50% SR to make this work.

Cheers.



Cheers.

[burrah]

Thanks AP, does it matter that the 2nd example was bet to a level stake rather than dutched?
Regards

[burrah]

Bhagwan, many thanks. It will take me many hours to works out the different scenarios. I use Betting assistant but also have Bet Trader Pro (free)
Regards

[AngryPixie]

Thanks AP, does it matter that the 2nd example was bet to a level stake rather than dutched?
Regards

I think the principle is pretty much the same. You're diluting the odds of each selection by backing more than one runner in the race.