Beware Group One Winners

[Equine Investor]

This is to help those punters who can't seem to fathom Sunline, Defier, Lonhro, Victory Vein & Co getting beaten.

I was always supicious of this, so now I am posting an exhaustive analysis of Group 1 winners (took me 2 days to get and process all the data).

1. I put every Group 1 winning horse through my selection filters (which I can't divulge because I use these filters regularly.)
Let's just say the filters eliminate at least 50% losing bets whilst retaining profits .

2. Group 1 winning horses are nearly always under their true odds when they do win.

Going back as far as November 1998 there were 256 qualifying selections.
Of these only 75 subsequently won.

That's 29.29% strike rate, not too bad.

HERE'S THE CRUNCHER...

The average win dividend was only $3.29.

Numerous odds on favourites with only a couple of winners over $10.00.

This represents a 3.635% Loss On Turnover.

Not much, but remember - this was AFTER I applied filters which eliminated numerous losing bets.

I came to the conclusion that no further filters could be applied to ensure keeping the winners as well.

The only way to make this a winning proposition would be to back the horses over the average price, but then this would eliminate as much as 50% of the bets and you would be backing them only a couple of times a year.

Just some info everyone might find useful.

I would recommend finding something at decent odds to beat them. They will get beaten, it's just a matter of time.

This analysis included Sunline, Ha Ha and Tie The Knot!



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-10-06 22:27 ]</font>

[Dr Pangloss]

EQ

Enjoy your posts and other prominent posters immensley. Your services have been given a big wrap on another forum so congratulations.

A couple of questions if I may. I've been attending the races/TABs longer than I care to remember. Would not the system (approach) outlined above be a winner if the top fluctuation was obtained on each winner?

Where are the best alternatives (bookies) to be found offering top fluctuation?

Why on earth do they provide such a service, and why doesn't every punter prefer to win more when they win?

Thanks in anticipation.

[Equine Investor]

Hi Dr. Pangloss,

Thanks for your kind words.

I did run this analysis using only VicTAB dividends and probably would pay better using Top Fluctuation. I would imagine around 5% profit...but that's just a guess.

You would have to use similar filters to weed out many losing bets though.

It was basically an exercise to confirm my own suspicions and my theory that it should be more rewarding to concentrate on the up and coming stars rather than the stars/champions in their own right.

Probably most of the time the classier horse will win, but if you can get overs on a rising star, you may well profit better the one time it rolls the hotpot. From there on you'll probably get poor prices on say a horse that beat Lonhro or Sunline. Look at the scenario with Northerly before beating Sunline and then after as an example.

As for the Top Fluctuation price, if you are a regular punter then it's well worthwhile getting that extra bit on top. Certainly can make a big difference to your profit at the end of the day!

[Management]

Dr. Pangloss,
Welcome to the forum. We can arrange for serious punters to get:

1. Top official betting ring odds. If the top official odds are $6.00 and the horse is plunged into $4.00 you get the full $6.00.

2. Be able to give a minimum price with their bets.

3. If the top official betting ring odds are below the minimum price wanted by the punter the bet is off.

This tremendous deal allows punters to have full control over the odds they get for their bets and also obtain far superior odds about horses in the market compared to most punters.

See http://www.propun.com.au/betting_advice_8.html
for contact details.

[Rain Lover]

You're spot on I reckon, EI.
Most group races yield lousey value on the first line of betting, except for one - The Melbourne Cup - because of the amount of once-a-year punter's money on the outsiders.
A simple system I've used to reduce the field from 24 to 9 or less, is to take the first 3 placegetters in the MV Cup, Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes.
This was an old "Racetrack" system and has produced the winner in all of of about 2 of the last 40 years, I think (I don't have the actual stats).

[becareful]

Equine Investor,
I generally avoid backing those horses, and anything else with a lot of "hype" simply because there is rarely any value to be found. The reason for this, I believe, is simply there is too much "dumb money" on these runners. You will always lose in the long run if you bet with the dumb money - but bet against it and you can take a good portion of it home with you!

Dr Pangloss,
You ask why the bookies offer Top Fluctuation - because they make money on it! If you add up the Top Fluct percentages on any given race they still add up to more than 100% (most of the time anyway) so they are still making a profit.

Why don't punters always use it? Personally I don't because I bet on longer odds propositions which GENERALLY pay better on the tote anyway (not always but on average I am better off with the best tote price). Also I don't like betting half an hour before race time which you have to do to get TF prices. If I was placing my bets in the morning on short priced runners then I would definitely go for TF with a bookie rather than TAB.