Calling Bhagwan

[Jack]

Quote on the 11 January 2005 "one of the best plans would be the $2.80+ Favourite Plan with betting progression attached" and can be found under the key word "Favorites Plan". Have done a search on Favourites Plan and the puzzle is that the search keeps returning to your 11 January post ???.
It would be appreciated if you could post all the details of this plan again?

Regards Jack

[Shaun]

Here is the link to the thread.
http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=6706&highlight=Favourite+Plan

I did a little test on fridays results using Unitab

Outlay 12 units
Profit 13.5 units The thing i found interesting is where we didn't bet on the shorter priced ones a lot of these failed to win, our strike rate for bets was 58%

We did have 3 bets at one venue for 3 wins but all in all an interesting topic

[Jack]

Thank you Shaun for the quick find

[crash]

Run it on a meetings first 4 races only. Less bets but far more favorites get up in the first 4 races.

[partypooper]

Crash, not here for an altercation, but I'm told that favs S/R remains virtually exact (over a long long time) about 30 % regardless of race type, going etc etc., with only some slight variation which is then reflected in the SP (POT/LOT etc) any contradiction would be welcome and interesting?

[lomaca]

Crash, not here for an altercation, but I'm told that favs S/R remains virtually exact (over a long long time) about 30 % regardless of race type, going etc etc., with only some slight variation which is then reflected in the SP (POT/LOT etc) any contradiction would be welcome and interesting?
Hi party!
here is three month worth of data (jan, mar, may 2007) of how the favorite is doing, ignore most of the columns, what you asked for is the 'wintrue" column and the race number column. true means (surprise) the fav. won.
You might sort the sheet somehow to find the correlation. (I don't use excel, so don't know how?)
Cheers

[Crackone]

Hi Iomaca thanks for the spread sheet results are

total races 2551 Fav win 816 times 31.99%
Races 1-4 1280 Fav win 441 times 34.45%
other races 1271 Fav win 375 times 29.50%

[partypooper]

Hi Lomaca, thanks for the feedback, I'm really surprised at that difference but before I get too excited, was I correct that the LOT remains the same ? also I presume that was SP fav?

[lomaca]

Hi Lomaca, thanks for the feedback, I'm really surprised at that difference but before I get too excited, was I correct that the LOT remains the same ? also I presume that was SP fav?

I don't know about the LOT, I was looking at something different altogether, but will run them again for a year, on diff. track cond, and mark them as C, P or M as well.
They are the final favs. on Supertab.
Won't be able to upload the files though, for a year they are just too big,will post the outcome only.
Cheers

[Bhagwan]

Hi Party,
You a pretty right with the ROI, it is basicly the same but the SR is different.
Stats show more favs get up in races 1-4 than 5-8 but the the ROI is similar.

Stats show that...
Race No.1 has the highest SR 36% & lowest av. div & a LOT.

Race No.8 has the lowest SR at 24% but has the highest average div a manages to nearly break even.

So if one were targeting a race for favs. race 8 offers the best chance of breaking even, along with longer runs of outs.

If one wishes for the highest SR regardless of price.
Target race No.1 then 2,3,4

Cheers.

[lomaca]

Hi Party,
You a pretty right with the ROI, it is basicly the same but the SR is different.
Stats show more favs get up in races 1-4 than 5-8 but the the ROI is similar.

Stats show that...
Race No.1 has the highest SR 36% & lowest av. div & a LOT.

Race No.8 has the lowest SR at 24% but has the highest average div a manages to nearly break even.


Hi Party, Bahgwan!
Here is the breakdown for the favorite race by race, on good-fast and slow-heavy tracks.

There are two excel files, each holding three sheets for the Met.Prov. and Country tracks.
While there is an average bias toward the first four races, if you will, this is not really true for say Race No. 1,2,3,4 individually by month or track.

Bahgwan! race No.1 seems to be the same as yours but on race No. 8 I have a different result, could be because this is only based on one year's results?

This is only for the year 2007. To make a reasonable assumption, to the validity, one would have to run this for a few years, to see if this pattern holds up?
Maybe by the end of the week I will do it if I have time, not sure if it's worth though.

I think the best one can do is to take into account the slight bias in the first races.
Good luck