So who here is lay betting?

[pengo]

I've just discovered the wonders of lay betting and have been successful at least on paper so far.. After a brief dabble with it today after figuring it out.

From some old threads some chick apparently was quite successful at it and michaelg did it and saw some success.

Michael are you still doing it, how have you faired? Anyone else? From what I've seen it looks like a licence to print money. Tho I'm sure the long term always gets ya aye!

Time for me to have a dabble with it for a week (on paper), if it hasn't busted the bank, time to keep on doing it until I go bust!

[Grand Armee]

It's not a license to print money. Laying is the same as backing, in reverse, no different. If you back a horse on Betfair at $5.00, it means someone has laid it to you at $5.00. Same thing as them backing it to lose at $1.20. There is no difference between betting and laying, they are the same thing. Is betting a license to print money?

[Merriguy]

Pengo go and have a look at the Daily Donkey and Tipster Proofing --- just google them. They will help you understand the implications, etc. and how difficult it is to succeed (both mainly to do with English racing, but the same aplies everwhere). GL

[AngryPixie]

I've just discovered the wonders of lay betting and have been successful at least on paper so far... From what I've seen it looks like a licence to print money.

Mmm. Don't judge laying on paper trading today's results. Today was the best day on the lay for a while. I finished close to 40 points up. That is NOT an everyday occurance. Lay for real and post again in four weeks time and tell us whether you've gained your licence. ;)

Good luck

[pengo]

It's not a license to print money. Laying is the same as backing, in reverse, no different. If you back a horse on Betfair at $5.00, it means someone has laid it to you at $5.00. Same thing as them backing it to lose at $1.20. There is no difference between betting and laying, they are the same thing. Is betting a license to print money?

Well unlike win betting, all I need to do to win is for it to come 2nd-12th in a 12 horse race.. So I see that as being better odds for me in winning my bet where as trying to pick one horse to win. Granted I gotta risk a lot to win a little but still, smaller consistent returns is better than large inconsistent returns IMHO.

For instance I was risking 100 today to win 6 units as I was laying horses in the double digits. Tho from reading previous threads the sweet spot seems to be 5-11.

As they say proof is in the pudding and we will see over time how good this really is. Whenever I get onto a new "system" I always tend to have the beginners luck, for instance today happened to be an unusual day for laying as pixie has said....

[Grand Armee]

Well unlike win betting, all I need to do to win is for it to come 2nd-12th in a 12 horse race.. So I see that as being better odds for me in winning my bet where as trying to pick one horse to win. Granted I gotta risk a lot to win a little but still, smaller consistent returns is better than large inconsistent returns IMHO.
Pengo you've failed to grasp the maths of it. Laying a horse at, say, $16, is EXACTLY (not similar, not related, but exactly) the same thing as having a BET, at odds of, roughly, $1.06, that it WON'T win, as opposed to backing horses who WILL win. When all is said and done, it's the same thing, because a bet is a bet. You bet a horse "will win" or you bet he "will not win", either way you take odds about a proposition.

I couldn't be f**ked typing as much as I should about this so you get it, but I'll leave you with one last thing to think about: how is it mathematically possible for all LAYERS to win, and all BACKERS to lose, at the same time? Investigate the maths of that one, and you'll have your answer.

[AngryPixie]

Pengo

The other thing you should be aware of is that in general the odds available on Betfair favour the backer, not the layer. If your laying the double figure selections you're almost certainly offering over the odds. In many cases you'll have to offer big overs just to get matched. You don't see that when your paper trading. These horses do win. Don't think they don't!

Have a go though. Interested to hear how you fair for real.

PS: Tell us which ones you're laying so we can back a few ;)

[pengo]

Yeah I was laying them $1-$2 over the TAB price so as to simulate them being matched.

I won't be laying them for real, but I'll post my goings on once I begin. If only to give me an ongoing record of my success or failures.

[Chrome Prince]

Pengo,

You cannot reasonably simulate at the odds you got matched, hypothetical and real odds are often poles apart.

I leave you with this....forget about picking losers, that is the very first trap players fall into, pick the right price to lay at.

Laying at oods because you think a horse can't win plus commission will eventually undo even the most savvy player unless you get below or at TAB odds.

Laying a horse 20% 50% and 80% above TAB odds because you think it can't win, will probably provide a profit for quite some time, but the one winner you didn't count on will get you and you're paying $3.00 a litre for petrol instead of $1.50 - you cannot win longterm like this.

[crash]

Getting the price right and having it matched is the secret, but not always so easy to do. As Chrome said, laying at over the odds will always lose eventually.
I remember a graph I had up on goggle once about English Betfair that showed layers and backers were about even in end results of profit or loss over a 12mth period.

Pengo,
Because a race has 12 horses it does not mean they all have an equal chance of winning or losing. That's just plain nonsense and setting your price to that theory would be suicide.

[King Cugat]

Pengo

Thought we went through this y/day. Its an art, better done by those that only lay. Angry Pixie is a lay man. Search the posts for those that sound like they only lay & take notice. The rest (like me) are only good enough for the obvious lay advice and stating that your ideas of overall odds need work << which, as you still dont grasp is a a problem....for now.
For some more obvious advice i did notice yesterday you started raising your liability as you won. I think you started wanting to lose $80 then rose it by $6 every time you won. That's like staking but in reverse! i.e. you will always lose $80 every time your backer beats you doing that. Thats in punting 101 when your 8yo.
Pengo, when you learn to drive a car you learn in drive > think of drive as backing horses to win < as you get more confident you learn to reverse > think of reverse as laying < When you get older you may like to choose to drive for a living (pro punting OR i suppose a delivery driver :) so with practise and confidence you get a bigger license from the road authorities and thats your trade. You can either navigate the roads relatively risk free or you have your local tow truck mans number on speed dial.
My advice is:

A 17yo on his L plates just learning to drive cant reverse park a road train!!

[Bhagwan]

Hi Pengo,
It is a very human initial reaction, when the idea of betting to lose comes up in conversation, but the reality is somewhat different.

Ask any of your friends if they are prepared to lay bet $10 on a 200/1 pop to lose, they will all say yes to the basic idea. Then tell them to keep in mind that if the thing happens to win, they are up for a liability payout of $2000, but if it falls over they get to profit the $10
Now watch their faces turn ashen white at the mere thought of it...funny ah!

Heres an exercise one may like to look at.
Pick a horse in every race that is $30 or slightly less.

One will find that one of these Donkeys will get up at least once in the next 30 bets.
If none get up within that 30 bets, one will probable see 2 of them get up in the next 30 bets.
It can be a very sobering exercise.

Go over vthe UniTAB results to see what I mean. These results can go back 2 years on this site.

If one wishes to do the lay thing with less liability, maybe have a look at place lay betting in races with 13+ runners.
You may discover that you have a gift for this.

I would strongly recommend to bet to price with a set liability.
e.g. Set Liability for each race could be say $20 = 1/20th of bank $400
Divide the horses fractional odds e.g. 10/1 into the $20 = $2 O/L
If the horse gets up to win , we lose $20
If horse falls over, we win $2
That's the harsh reality of lay betting.

Try & keep the same liability for each race on the day , because increasing the exposure, say half way through the day is financial suicide.
Set it up at the beginning of the day & dont change it until the next day up or down.

Maria's money management plan.
$1.00-3.50 = 1% bet of bank
$3.55-7.40 = 0.6%
$7.60-11.00 = 0.4%
Increase bank accordingly at the end of the day.
Decrease bet if bank drops by 35% at the end of the day.

Use the free Bet Trader Pro program to place bets under the Betfair min. of $6 a bet.
It also has a Dutch betting program in it for win & lay betting, you could use that.
What I do when using this program is enter 1/12th of bank into the square at the top . This equates to risking approx 1% of bank for each bet.

I feel one will have a greater chance of success & understanding of percentages, if one places their bets in this manner & less exposure to doing all their money very quickly, if a bad day should strike.

Good luck my friend.
Cheers.

[pengo]

Pengo,
Because a race has 12 horses it does not mean they all have an equal chance of winning or losing. That's just plain nonsense and setting your price to that theory would be suicide.

Yes, just like backing a horse to win you check its form same for the "loser". Tho the thing is the loser has more chance of losing since it only needs to be beaten by one other horse. Whereas the winner needs to beat by all the other horses. My logic is sound and will not be challenged !!! :) (/sarcasm).


Ask any of your friends if they are prepared to lay bet $10 on a 200/1 pop to lose, they will all say yes to the basic idea. Then tell them to keep in mind that if the thing happens to win, they are up for a liability payout of $2000, but if it falls over they get to profit the $10
Now watch their faces turn ashen white at the mere thought of it...funny ah!


As you just point out, you limit your liability so if that long shot comes in you don't lose your bank. Plus I wouldn't be staking 10 on the 200-1 long shot due to the eventuality that you have described. Instead I'd lay a horse that will allow me to limit my liablity to a predetermined amount. So that it doesn't destroy the bank if it gets up.

All I'm seeing here is naysayers, I guess we will see. Tho I appreciate the words of wisdom, if anything this just makes me want to succeed just that much more to show you it is possible. :)

How is giving over the odds not able to simulate a matched bet? It simulates it as a best as can be short of actually doing it. I'll look at the current back odds and give over that, so its more likely that it'll get matched. Also you can bring up what odds the horse has traded at and so I see what it has mostly gone for and give over that. So long as I make more than I lose its all good.

I still rekon lay betting is where its at, a horse only needs to place 2nd or worse and there are a lot more places for it to finish that will end up in a successful outcome for me, rather trying to finish in one particular place for a win bet. Basically, its harder to win a race than it is to lose it is my logic.

Also I'll be limiting my liability to no more than 100 units, so I will be set to a limited range of odds so I can stake 6. Once the bank builds, I'd use dutching to amplify my profits with limited liability. I won't be laying longshots (100-1), I'll be looking at the teens at most so that I am able to stake 6 units at whatever odds for the horse I have selected. The sweet spot from other threads says its 5-11.

I'm not expecting a 100% success rate but there is obviously a reason why the tote doesn't give a horse good odds. Sure they can get it wrong but the hope is that I'd make enough to cover the odd donkey getting up. Further you wouldn't lay purely on what the tote odds are, that only helps you to make a shortlist of selctions. Which just like any bet, you'd check its form and stats to come to a final decision.

I just think there is obviously money to be made and it seems this type of betting is more suited to my style. Also if there is no money to be made why are there bookies in the first place? :)

No skin off my nose if I get this wrong, I haven't risked anything other than my time.

[Mark]

No you won't be right 100% of the time, nobody is, BUT, you will need to be right 95% of the time simply to break even. Best of luck pengo.

[pengo]

Thanks, its just a bit of fun so I don't know what the big deal is if I get it wrong anyway :)

I've had my fun and learnt something in the process.

[lomaca]

Thanks, its just a bit of fun so I don't know what the big deal is if I get it wrong anyway :)

Pengo!

The original idea of this forum was that we share the little we know.
If you are hell bent on misinterpreting the advice as "knocking your idea" that's OK, but then why do you bother asking for comments on what you do?
Good luck

[Chrome Prince]

Pengo, yes it does seem like naysayer syndrome, but do you realise why everyone is jumping at you?
We have been there before and learnt the hard way.

As stated before Betfair favours backers, then you have commission.
It is extremely hard to win laying one horse per race, don't let anyone tell you it's easy.
It's easy to pick losers, it's not easy to lay them at a price that provides a profit.

For example, there is a more marked bias with longshots.
A horse at even money you might get matched at even money or $2.20, a horse at 150/1 I've seen at 500/1 or 1000/1.

You can win laying 150/1 shots at 150/1, probably up to 200/1, but you cannot win laying them at 500/1 or worse 1000/1.

I would suggest to anyone contemplating laying for profit to get the bookies prices on spreadsheet, add on the bookies overround to the prices, deduct commission, this is breakeven point, anything more is loss, anything less is profit. (overall)

You'll soon realise just how difficult it is.

For example again, I lay horses below TAB price and sometimes struggle to make a profit, imagine laying 20% above - no chance.

I won't go into how I do it, however, I can reveal that in almost every race
there will be a horse available to lay at below TAB odds, usually in the first four in the market.

I wish you well Pengo, truely, but it is just not as easy as it looks.

Browse the Betfair General Betting forum and you'll see how many people struggle and lose a lot of money in a short space of time, because they are laying over the odds.

It's really an ego thing, the layer thinks he can outsmart the market and pick the loser, he can, he just can't get the right price.

Imagine backing horses at 10% below TAB prices and trying to win, effectively that's what you are trying to do, but in reverse.

[pengo]

I'm under the impression I win what I stake less commission, plus get back my liability. So if a horse loses, I'm ahead as I win my stake and it will b more than 0 regardless of commission. For arguments sake, I stake 6 with a liability of 100 so 106 is removed from my account. I win my lay and get paid 106~ (my 100 back plus 6 from the backer less commission).

Or am I missing something?

[King Cugat]

your are missing how it works mate,

the backer 'stakes' his $6
you are making liability of $100.

out of your account $100 WILL be taken

1. when the horse loses $106 goes back into your account.
the result = +$6 only. less commision

2. If the horse wins you get back nothing
the result -$100 (no commison as you werent the winner of the match)

so you either win $6 less commision or lose $100. theres no other result other then these 2

[pengo]

Umm isn't that what I said?

I stake 6 with a liability of 100 so 106 is removed from my account.
I win my lay and get paid 106~ (my 100 back plus 6 from the backer less commission).

[King Cugat]

For arguments sake, I stake 6 with a liability of 100 so 106 is removed from my account...... no
only $100 is taken from your account & $6 from the backers account

+the 'stake' is the term for money, a backer puts up....generally

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, so you win $6.00 less 5%, so you risk losing $100 to win $5.70 odds of $1.057

You are betting that the horse won't win at odds of $1.057

[pengo]

Yes, so you win $6.00 less 5%, so you risk losing $100 to win $5.70 odds of $1.057

You are laying that the horse won't win at odds of $1.057

Yeah so I do understand it correctly. I'm expecting a high success rate but not 100%.

[AngryPixie]

Gee this has bought a few biases out of the woodwork :) I don't think anybody is naysaying, you should give it a go so you can get the experience to do it properly.

There's no doubt that you can make money from laying on Betfair. It is much harder than you think it is though. To put a bit of perspective on things here is some stuff from my ledger yesterday.

Yesterday I layed 79 horses in 50 races. Of those 79 horses, 10 won there race (a 87.3% strike rate). My largest lay price matched was $11 at Ipswich R7#9 Divinity Dash. It won! My smallest lay price matched was $2.04 also at Ipswich R3#4 Ring Of Light. It also won, but I won on the race as I also layed #7 Conquer And Rule and #11 Sneaky Sneaky.

The other eight accidents were:

MDGE03-04 Lavender Cove $2.98
RAND01-07 Xavier $4.70
MORP01-03 Regal Dash $3.60
NCLE03-01 Spaceship One $3.20
IPSW05-07 Zeus Almighty $4.70
TWBA02-05 Such Is Luck $2.82
NCLE05-01 Our Liam $2.42
S_CK07-01 Boortkoi Dragon $4.70

A profit of 46.84 units before commission. My average matched lay price was $6.94, and the median was $6.80. Right in the middle of the sweet spot. Now don't get too excited. It was a very good day. :)

But...

there were many more horses that I wanted to lay but couldn't get my maximum price of $11.00. A number of these won, three of them paying $46.00, $70.00 and $110.00!!! :eek:

So you didn't ask for it but here's my advice anyway :)

1) You must have an angle. It's very difficult to lay on price alone on the Australian Betfair markets.
2) Be very careful offering prices over $11.00. Over this price you've stepped into enemy territory.
3) Never use a progressive staking plan. Stick to a simple fixed liability that's a percentage of your betting bank. You choose the percentage that your comfortable with.

Let us know how you get on.

Best of luck.