My Lay BetFair Adventure

[pengo]

I won't have time to follow this closley today, so just thought i make my lay selections to see if they lose and so are successful for me.

I'll assume that my lay will be matched as the odds i will set will be at a premium to the tote odds (by 2.00 units). So this will attract a backer since its good odds for the selection. This is done so I could work out my potential liabilities and so calculate a p/l at the end of the meet. Liability limit is 100~ units. When I have more time, closer to the jump I'd set my odds based on what the history of trades has been so I know what the betfair market has been paying and set my odds accordingly.

tote = tote.com.au

Starting Bank: 1,000

Geelong
WIN only
Race 2:
8-The Lion King
8.50 tote / 10.50 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 63

Race 3:
10-Tan Jugah
12.10 tote / 14.10 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 84.6

Race 5:
1-Furious Dee
9.20 tote
11.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 67.2

Race 6:
6-Muzza's Star
8.20 tote
10.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 61.20

Race 7:
5-O'reilly Tycoon
15.20 tote
17.20 betfair
Stake: 6
Liability: 102.20

Total Liabilities: 378.2

[Mark]

Good luck pengo.
IMHO your risk/reward ratio is totally out of whack.

[pengo]

Yeah I'll see how I go over the course of a week.

Also want to try laying the favourite 5m to jump, see how that goes over a week. And if that don't work too well or even if it doesn't, dutch laying the radio tab top 3 selections.

[Chrome Prince]

Without consideration of the lay odds, picking horses won't work.

Example - Lion King was $16.50 on Betfair.

Tan Jugah is $26.00

[pengo]

Without consideration of the lay odds, picking horses won't work.

Example - Lion King was $16.50 on Betfair.

Tan Jugah is $26.00

You make no sense....

Lion king didn't win, so my lay was successful.

So long as the lay is successful, then who cares what the odds where?

[Chrome Prince]

Yes Pengo, you are correct, but you are missing the point of the maths being flawed.

You can trial something at $1.10 for every selection and you'll win, but the real world price will break you.

Yes, the horse lost and you won, but just one of those horses winning at the real price will strip all the profit from the losers, because you estimated an unreal price.

You might have a winner free day, but even 7 days down the track just one winner at $75.00 instead of $20 will kill the bank.

Don't forget that you are also inflating the amount won, instead of $6.00 for a liability of $100, you'll only win $2.00 for a liability of $100 because the price is so much more.

[pengo]

You might have a winner free day, but even 7 days down the track just one winner at $75.00 instead of $20 will kill the bank.

Yes, I appreciate this but I'm expecting a high success rate with my lays. Also I would not lay a 75-1 shot, as I am keeping in mind I don't want to kill the bank. You guys keep saying but what about the 100/1 shot but I'm not laying a 100/1 shot coz I can't at a stake of 6. Also you forget that my max liability on any selection will be 100~.

Don't forget that you are also inflating the amount won, instead of $6.00 for a liability of $100, you'll only win $2.00 for a liability of $100 because the price is so much more.

How do you figure I get back 2 when I get paid 6 (or slightly less after commission)? At all times I stake 6 for a max liability of 100 for any selection.

This is just a really rough guide to see if I can be successful over the course of a week. You have to walk before you can run, I'll worry about the odds later.

[Chrome Prince]

Here's a real example:

Favourites lose 13.65% at TAB prices,so IF you could lay at TAB prices you would win 13.65% less commission.
You would hypothetically make 8.65% return over time.

What happens when you lay just 10% over those odds at Betfair, you now have a base of 3.65% profit, less commission - you now lose 1.65% laying them. A lot of favourites trade at well over 10% better odds, especially the easy favourites in the market.

Now scroll down to outsiders, the odds are way over 20%,waaay over.

It doesn't add up to profit, you will make money for a while, but the end result is big loss.

[pengo]

I'll keep that in mind.
Thanks

I see what you guys mean about being matched, my selection for race 7 is showing some stupid odds for the lay.

I think I'll need to play with the outside chances (5/1-7/1) so I could stake 10 so that, after 10 plays I have made a "liability buffer" (e.g. profit is now 100 so if one horse loses before I make another 100 [10 consecutive successful lays] I got back to break even).

[Chrome Prince]

Pengo, sorry it's hard to come across as helping when someone is dipping their toe in for the first time, it comes across as bagging you, and that is certainly not the intention.

I just don't want you to make the same mistakes as hundreds including me made when first laying horses.

There are plenty of horses to lay at TAB prices or better especially today ;)

I'd rather lay a 20/1 TAB horse at $19.00 on Betfair than lay a $9.00 TAB horse at $15.00 on Betfair.

[pengo]

Its all good Chrome, I'm just a stubborn Capricorn!

Now onto my crazy results ;)

Starting Bank: 1,000

Geelong
WIN only
Race 2:
8-The Lion King
RETURN 69

Race 3:
10-Tan Jugah
12.10 tote / 14.10 betfair
RETURN 90.6

Race 5:
1-Furious Dee
RETURN 73

Race 6:
6-Muzza's Star
close call it came 2nd. heh.
RETURN 67.20

Race 7:
5-O'reilly Tycoon
RETURN 108.20

Total Liabilities: 378.2
Total Return: 408
Profit/Loss: 29.8

Ending Bank: 1029.8
Bank Profit/Loss: 29.8

[Chrome Prince]

Just to be stubborn like you, the real result is this ;)

Lion King @ $16.50 profit $6.45
Tan Jugah @ $75.00 profit $1.35
Furious Dee @ $13.00 profit $8.33
Muzza's Star @ $6.00 profit $20.00
O'Reilly Tycoon @ $24.00 profit $4.34

Total Profit $38.44 less commission laying at $100 liability.

[pengo]

profit so ner!!!!!!!!!!!!! hehe :D

[Chrome Prince]

Only one accident needed.

Paramedics are on their way ;)

[AngryPixie]

Just to be stubborn like you, the real result is this ;)

Lion King @ $16.50 profit $6.45
Tan Jugah @ $75.00 profit $1.35
Furious Dee @ $13.00 profit $8.33
Muzza's Star @ $6.00 profit $20.00
O'Reilly Tycoon @ $24.00 profit $4.34

Total Profit $38.44 less commission laying at $100 liability.

In fact to ensure you were matched it's more like below :eek:

Lion King @ $23.00
Tan Jugah @ $85.00
Furious Dee @ $13.50
Muzza's Star @ $6.60
O'Reilly Tycoon @ $65.00

[TWOBETS]

What about slowing things down a bit and utilize a little of this Chrome Plated wisdom in combination with your ideas. Look for the ones that show a premium....

e.g. Bairnsdale R6 #9 was showing $30 to $50 on most tabs and yet you could easily get set for under $8 on Betfair. Bet more but less often is a ploy that imho carries much value.

[pengo]

Tomorrow I might consider doing 3 horses per race, looking at horses showing 5 to 10 on the tote. Stake 10 so after 10 successful lays have enough in the bank in quick enough fashion to cover any accidents. Tho we have to go 10 straight
first!

If i back more winners than losers, I might have to switch the system into backing and not laying!

[brownie]

Pengo

I used a system maker to create the crapiest system I could think of (while still actually capable of making selections) for the sole purpose of creating lay selections. Within the first month my bank was bust. My crap selection system actually made a profit. It only took 2 winners.
Here are the selections for Sat 5th
Haven't checked the results.

05/01/2008 SANDOWN

MR 4 #10 9x18 PLAN AHEAD

05/01/2008 NEWCASTLE

XR 6 # 7 98x OBERKOMMANDO

XR 6 # 9 808x NIKIFOROS

05/01/2008 MORPHETTVILLE

AR 6 #10 0578 LAVA FLOW

05/01/2008 MORPHETTVILLE

AR 6 #10 0578 LAVA FLOW

05/01/2008 IPSWICH

XR 1 #11 8 BLUEFIRE MAGIC

XR 2 #16 09x8 CAWDOR TONY

XR 7 #10 698x MAKEDA

[pengo]

Just because you have failed doesn't mean I will :)

Also you said you made a profit but busted your bank, that doesn't make sense.

[Grand Armee]

He made the crappiest system, ie a big loser, so he could lay them on Betfair. Therefore, it was a backfitted system. Immediately, the system started to win (on win bets) meaning he did his Khyber Pass on laying.

[Chrome Prince]

Here's food for thought, given the bias towards longshots being way overpriced on Betfair, I've always lived by this saying in punting terms, as it's proven in the data.

"The worse a horse is, the more you'll lose laying it, unless you can find a way to lay it lower."

Think about the words contained in that saying, it summarizes why people lose money, the thought process is a punting thought process and not a laying thought process, the very first danger to the novice layer.

Imagine a rails bookmaker offering $5.00 about a $3.50 shot or $1000 about a $150.00 shot, then think about how much they make, 15% to 20% less turnover tax and track fees and licences.

And people want to lay horses higher? Madness :eek:

If bookies gave Betfair prices about horses, there would be no bookies within a month or less, and that is why layers have to lay smart and not take what is offered just because they think it won't win.

If I lay this horse at this price and it wins at the expected ratio, will I make a profit - unfortunately the answer is usually no, especially when commission is factored in.

I posted this before, but favourites at Canterbury are overbet and so are first starters, you can make a profit laying at betfair prices plus commission, and there are plenty of other angles also. There are many more thatwill bust you at Betfair prices though. You must research before putting hard earned on or guessing or picking.

[Chrome Prince]

Horses at 100/1 on the tote, the breakeven is $304.00, but most of them you have to lay at 500/1 or more, meaning you'll lose a minimum of 65% plus commission laying them.

Staggering.

You will however win for approximately 300 races before you make a whopping loss.

Very sobering.

[AngryPixie]

You will however win for approximately 300 races before you make a whopping loss.


Or maybe none. There's nothing to say it won't get up on your first lay. :(

[Mark]

" the thought process is a punting thought process and not a laying thought process, the very first danger to the novice layer".

I could not agree more CP. Most people operate with punters brains and not bookies brains. Not saying they are wrong, BUT, you cannot go into laying expecting to make consistent profits using a punters brain.

I've been laying (probably around 98% of my t/o) successfully on BF for 5 years now. I don't think I'd make it as a punter any more as I just don't have the right mindset. I have 2 friends, both wanted me to show them what I do.

Let's call them B & G.
B sat with me for hours, even taking notes (very flattering), and now makes a regular part-time income from BF. He is disciplined (extremely important) and single minded. He did not have a losing market last year until mid-way through December, when by his own admission he was working while tired, and trying to force a price. He does not ever bet on horses ! He regularly rings me to say "have a look at such and such a market".
G on the other hand wanted the quick fix. "Show me one race, I'll pick it up", he said. Needless to say, whenever I see G, he usually starts with, "went to the TAB, nearly got a big trifecta etc, haven't looked at BF for a while, might try it tomorrow".

B is no smarter than G, but he has discipline, a major factor in defining who will win and who will not.

Laying is completely different to backing. I've heard people say it's the same but the opposite. Succesful laying is not, it is much more. As Chrome put it, it is a completely different thought process.

As an example, last Saturday, who gave Danewin Lodge a chance of winning. Certainly not me, I had it running closer to last. It was my best result of the day by far. Different mindset.

Best of luck to anyone who takes on laying.

[Chrome Prince]

Or maybe none. There's nothing to say it won't get up on your first lay. :(

So true, AP :(

But perhaps it gets more dangerous the longer you win.

[Grand Armee]

Mark are you basically saying that a good lay process is -

A: pick and choose specific horses, who you think are either no chance (and are in the market) or are gross unders, and lay them specifically

or

B: try to lay an entire market, at about 110%, by putting up prices early then adjusting, adjusting, adjusting, monitoring totes/bookie flucs, etc, to try to "balance a book", like the old style "figures bookies"

Would you say you are one, or both, or neither of these? Also, what are your comments on the viability of those two methods for potential lay punters? Interested in Chrome Prince's thoughts on this, too, and anyone who would like to offer an opinion.

[Mark]

110%..........now wouldn't that be nice!!! I worked 10 races on Saturday, averaged 95%, and only won on half of them, but still had a winning day.

I used to work for one of the old style figures bookies, probably the best in the game.

I find myself being somewhere in the middle of the options you've given.
I do some form study, I look at gear changes, do rating's for the better races, and then try to lay accordingly.
When I work a race I always try to make the fav the worst result. I don't lay horses @ 10 or more, unless I've rated them as no chance. I try to have no losers, but when this doesn't work, I try to have no more than 2 losers. In Danewin Lodges race, he was the only runner I didn't lay.
1 break even, 2 loser (fav), 3 winner, 4 winner, 5 winner, 6 small loser, 7 a skinner. I gave 1,6 & 7 no chance, and laid accordingly, except 7 which was over 100/1. I did well this race achieving 103%.

I don't know that there is a set way of winning, everyone has a different approach, and what works for one, may not work for another.

[Chrome Prince]

Mark are you basically saying that a good lay process is -

A: pick and choose specific horses, who you think are either no chance (and are in the market) or are gross unders, and lay them specifically

or

B: try to lay an entire market, at about 110%, by putting up prices early then adjusting, adjusting, adjusting, monitoring totes/bookie flucs, etc, to try to "balance a book", like the old style "figures bookies"

Would you say you are one, or both, or neither of these? Also, what are your comments on the viability of those two methods for potential lay punters? Interested in Chrome Prince's thoughts on this, too, and anyone who would like to offer an opinion.

Hi Grand Armee,

I'll let Mark speak for himself as he is the master at making books.

For myself, I dabble in a mixture and it really depends on the type of race (number of runners, price of favourite).

In a general open race, I try to lay below market price (there are many ways to achieve this), I do extremely well in very small fields with an odds on runner making books.
The best race for me is 4 or 5 runners with a heavy odds on runner.
I can consistently make at least 110% market, because it's pretty obvious what will drift and what will firm, especially if you get in hours before the race on UK markets.

On the occasions I get it wrong and the favourite drifts and second or third fave comes in a point or two, I can usually trade out of trouble.

It is very hard to get horses outside the top 4 in the market at bookies odds.

I never look at horses with less chance because you usually have to lay them too high, because the public also think they are no chance.

I concentrate on which horse I'm most likely to get matched at under tote odds, and it usually isn't the favourite ;)

I also look at various ways to lay significantly under the tote price.

When you get it right making books, it's a buzz.
When you get it right trading it's also a buzz.
When you lay well below tote odds - buzz.

When any of these scenarios don't pan out, it can be disasterous.

Above all, I reckon you must have a second approach or way to get out without risking the entire stake.

Right now I lay, trade and make books, form or picking horses has very little to do with anything remotely regarding my experience on Betfair, except when I see very good overs on a champion racehorse or pacer.

[Mark]

I should add that what I've written above is what I do on Aussie races, the UK is completely different. I only make books when I can lay at over 100%. Right now I'm part way into backing every runner in the Southwell 23.50 (QLD time). Should be able to get them in at around 97%, and that's after laying them all at around 105%.....double buzz!!!


And speaking of books over 100%, has anyone been looking at the US Presidential markets?.............pure gold.

[Chrome Prince]

Mike Huckabee still at 20/1, I would have thought 10/1 is closer to the mark.

[Mark]

lol, I laid him at 20 just now !!!!, but I can afford to after catching Obama for good money @ 2.26.

[AngryPixie]

A: pick and choose specific horses, who you think are either no chance (and are in the market) or are gross unders, and lay them specifically


Grand Armee

I'm Layer "Type A", although I never think a horse has no chance, there's always the chance of a "Bradbury". Therefore my selections must be unders. I have a bit of an outside-the-square approach to making my selections that over time has proved to my advantage. Unlike Mark I'm a high volume layer and churn the bank making the most of a small advantage.

Mark, I'd have layed Danewin Lodge if I could have got my price. I layed the following. I'd normally have ignored Les Roses but was trying something new on this race. I managed to green up on it so there'd be no real damage done.

RAND05-02 Les Roses
RAND05-03 Viva Caro
RAND05-04 Jujulio

Reading this thread highlights on of the things I like most about punting. There's no one way to make a success of it. You can do it your own way and still finish ahead.

[Grand Armee]

Thanks guys, for your input. I am interested because you guys are, from what I can gather, real "traders". I have known both types of people, the traders and the analysts. Originally, when I was learning to be the latter, I blindly considered that the analyst was superior to the trader. I figured, on reading books by people like Scott, Beyer etc that the person who could be BETTER than the market was the true King of the game. Traders didn't occur to me. Then, when I was working amongst traders, I began to see that side of the game, too. On racing trading floors, a lot of money moves around between bookmakers and totes, sometimes without much input from the punters at all!

It is my firm opinion, now, that the true King of the game is the person who can master both. If you are an excellent form analyst, and an excellent trader, surely you have the world at your feet.

For example - Mark is trying to back the field at 97% at Southwell, having laid them at 105%. Nice piece of trading, you'll have a nice guaranteed profit. That's straight, pure trading.

What if, though, Mark (or Mark's split personality, let's call him Kram), had done the form for the race also. Kram said, "Mark, I've done the form. It's a three horse race, but really, it's only a two horse race. Liz Long cannot win. It's $17.50 to back at the moment, $25 to lay. Just lay it, don't waste our money, Mark, backing it also. Further, don't lay Just Mossie. Back him, but don't lay him. The fave, Home, is his right price, trade your way on him."

If, overall, Kram is a better analyst than the market, then he will improve your figures. Liz Long runs a long last, Home and Just Mossie fight it out - whoever wins it's not a worry, you have your position.

The "analyst" approach, where the punter takes the market on, and the "trader" approach, where the punter works with the market, are like Yin and Yang, they are real opposites but intertwined. The "analyst" will have big peaks and big troughs, such as he/she must when they are taking the market on, whereas the trader will have a LOT smoother ride. It really does seem to me, though, that the best method of all is to perfect them both.

[AngryPixie]

Oh I think my post snuck in there. I'm sure Grand Armee wasn't meaning me when he said "you guys". :o

Mark are you using the stay in running on the UK markets? Works great for the soccer too.

[Chrome Prince]

The trader has a smooth ride when he gets matched, when he doesn't get matched, it quite a bumpy ride downhill :(

[Chrome Prince]

In play is the greatest thing since sliced bread :D

[Mark]

I had a little dabble the other night for mixed results. I'm finding it hard to stay up late.

[brownie]

Just because you have failed doesn't mean I will :)

Also you said you made a profit but busted your bank, that doesn't make sense.

Yes, my crap selection method made a profit if you were BACKING them...not laying them.

It does make sense.

Yea for sure, it doesn't mean that you won't.

Cheers

[Grand Armee]

OK because Mark (and Kram) mentioned that race at Southwell, I've had a little play on it, as a trader, just for a bit of fun. I'll tell you what I've done, we'll see how it works out. At this point, I am likely to get burned!


I have laid the fave, "Home", at $1.41, for $1000, risking $410. I now have a bet up, waiting to be matched, wanting to have $940 on it, at $1.50. If through some miracle this bet were matched, I would make a $60 profit (pre commission), whichever horse of the three won. I have checked the box "Keep in play" so that perhaps the horse might be matched midrace.

Let's see what happens...... though I fear the worst!

[Chrome Prince]

Nothing like jumpingin boots and all ;)

What favourite at $1.41???

Are you talking Winthorpe the place, man you are gutsy, place market is very tough to crack in play.

Good luck.

FWIW If it were me, I'd be backing him $1,000 the win @ $3.20, then laying in play and otherwise at 100 @ $3.00, 200 @ $2.80 300 @ $2.60 $400 @ $2.40 and greening up on the last one.

The fluctuations are far better on the win market in play.

[Grand Armee]

No this is the 00:50 (EST) at Southwell. Three horse race, the topweight, #1 Home, is (now) $1.38 favourite. I've laid it at overs.... :(

[Chrome Prince]

I don't want to mozz you but that's playing with fire, he's likely to trade much shorter in play unless he misses the kick, this is a flat race not a hurdle.

Fingers crossed for you.

Just mossie is likely to trade higher, I don't want to cost you money, so stick with it, but if it were me, I'd get out of that bet at $1.41 and transfer my lay to just mossie.

[Grand Armee]

Interesting point.... maybe I should back him at whatever he is now, have $2000 on him, and then put up a lay at $1.25 for the in running?

[Chrome Prince]

Noooo, if he misses the kick you're stuffed.

Just Mossie is a far better lay opportunity and back higher in play.

But do what you think, I don't want to be responsible if things don't pan out :(

[Grand Armee]

Nah is not a worry, I am just having a little play, mostly out of boredom. I do like the idea of being a trader (I am Yin, not Yang), but I don't have the patience.

[Grand Armee]

Chrome Prince - I've been watching this stuff on the UK tonight, I traded my way out of that 00:50 race, BTW, to chop it out, but one thing I've noticed is the IN RUN betting is so fluctuating. For several seconds, on the 00:30 at LUDL, you could bet to win on a 92% market.

[Grand Armee]

OK taken a bit of a risk for fun here in the 00:50. I have backed this fave, HOME, at $1.39 now, have had $1000 on it and will try to lay back at 1.20 in the run.

[Grand Armee]

woo-hoo!! laid it back in the run at 1.20!!


this is fun!

[Chrome Prince]

Chrome Prince - I've been watching this stuff on the UK tonight, I traded my way out of that 00:50 race, BTW, to chop it out, but one thing I've noticed is the IN RUN betting is so fluctuating. For several seconds, on the 00:30 at LUDL, you could bet to win on a 92% market.

Yes,but it'scleanedup before you can get it.

Because we can onlypreset bets before the jump it would be very hard.

P.S. WELL DONE you got the bikkies.

But for mine the riskwastoo high, Just mossie was $7.00 just after the went 800m and it would alwaystrade larger at some point, even if the favourite missed the jump.

BUT - WELL DONE ;)

[Chrome Prince]

woo-hoo!! laid it back in the run at 1.20!!


this is fun!

Just be careful, most real shorties will trade shorter, but some do not.

In fact there are two recently that come to mind.

[Grand Armee]

No worries - rest assured this is just a bit of fun this evening, whatever way it falls, it doesn't matter.


In the next, perhaps fittingly, I have backed a horse called INGRATITUDE and am looking to lay it back in the run.

[Chrome Prince]

Yes, that's a good bet (trade)

Nothing else is fancied and it's not too short, there's plenty of leeway.

I've backed it at $3.60 and looking to lay in play at $2.60 :eek:

If it comes off..... :D

[Grand Armee]

Oops...

[Chrome Prince]

No Cigar :(

That's what can happen, onto the next.

[Grand Armee]

Yes am backing Roby De Cimbre at 2.90, looking for madness, to lay it back at 1.50

[Chrome Prince]

Going to play with fire...

Something Wells backed $3.10 lay in play $2.10
Roby De Cimbre backed 2.90 lay in play $1.90

[Chrome Prince]

Hahaha

Great minds :D

[Grand Armee]

While, BTW, there's some ********** fella called Patrick Sheehan on "Poker Millions" on fox looking like he's going to win... the guy is 18 and won an internet comp.... not going to have any trouble getting laid, this young McGowan.


That edited out word was i-r-i-s-h

[Grand Armee]

Going to play with fire...

Something Wells backed $3.10 lay in play $2.10
Roby De Cimbre backed 2.90 lay in play $1.90
Yes it's us against the Poms, like in the Ashes!!!

[Chrome Prince]

Matched on one but not the other. :(

[Grand Armee]

Clicking refresh ad nauseum is like watching a computerised version of the horse race. Your price is driftin, so is your horse, but he makes a move 500m out and your price drops, he challenges on the turn, you're joint fave, he leads briefly, still joint fave, his run ends, and as it does, his price skyrockets...

[Chrome Prince]

The next race is going to be real tricky many chances, but Royal Applord $4.70 and $3.70 in play, double stakes.

[Grand Armee]

Will barrack - I have laid Kool Katie at 8.4, looking to back back at 13.

[Chrome Prince]

Well halfway there before the race starts, that's a good omen

[Chrome Prince]

YES BOTH OF US MATCHED

I saw your $13 sitting there (I use a bot) and it got hoovered up :D

[Grand Armee]

yeah weird thing - got the bet on pre-race at 13.... someone stuffed up with a bot, methinks

[Grand Armee]

who won?? my window has frozen - not using the gruss API for this, just playing with the website

[Chrome Prince]

Sasso back @ $2.20 in play lay at $1.20

[Grand Armee]

I get the feeling your horse may have been SCR?

[Chrome Prince]

Royal Applord won

[Chrome Prince]

No it ran and won

[Grand Armee]

Sasso back @ $2.20 in play lay at $1.20
that's an enormous potential % profit... I'll have a dip too, but only for $500.

[Grand Armee]

No it ran and wonLOL - I backed it.... but because of the freeze the lay bet didn't go through....

[Grand Armee]

You have the top odds, I'm on at $2.14

[Grand Armee]

pre-race we could already lay back at 2.08.... if we were in a nursing home!

[AngryPixie]

Dune Raider was in at 5.5 out at 11.5. Hi everybody.

[Grand Armee]

Ah well...


Next, laid Caoba at 3.9, backing at 7.8

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Angry Pixie, can I get you a drink, the party's just started ;)

Spring Dream $3.50 and $2.50

[AngryPixie]

Fiddling Again in now at 5.6 out at 8.8.

[Grand Armee]

Sh*t I forgot to check the "stay in" box for in running betting... is there any way to default that?

[AngryPixie]

************. Forgot to press keep.

[Chrome Prince]

We both got matched I believe...happy days.

[Chrome Prince]

************ I thought all three of us had that.

[Chrome Prince]

Ginger Princess back at $3.90 lay IP $2.90
Pauline's Prince lay at $5.00 back IP at $10.00 :eek:

[AngryPixie]

That was a bit close. Don't like anything in the next. Sitting out.

[Grand Armee]

Hi Angry Pixie - who won that race, guys? When suspended on mine, there were two about equal long odds on...

Laying Ginger Princess at 3.89 and backing it at 6.00 (hopefully)

[Grand Armee]

CP - are you and I twins sep'd at birth??? Posting same bets here... :)

[Chrome Prince]

Butterfly Rose won it

[Grand Armee]

Hang on re-read - you're laying it, I'm backing it, we're clearly not twins

[Chrome Prince]

Hehe, yes but we are going opposite strategies with this one, let's hope it leads all the way and runs out of puff long enough for you and me to both get matched.

[AngryPixie]

Nice one Chrome. Are you listening to the radio Grand?

[Grand Armee]

The Yank commentators on the poker on Fox 8 just referred to the Gold Coast as "The.. Sun... Coast?"

how long will man have to put up with Americans before evolution does away with them?

[Chrome Prince]

I got set on both mine, very nice result.

Did Ginger Princess trade high enough for you to get matched?

[Chrome Prince]

No radio here, I just watch the Gruss prices fluctuate, no point in internet radio as the best is 5 seconds behind anyhow.

[Grand Armee]

God, I have to remember to tick the ************ box... can't back it

[Grand Armee]

I am logging onto my Gruss account also... I am sick of my BF browser freezing. Who won the 13:50??

[Chrome Prince]

Well, going to bed now, have fun, it's been interesting and great to be able to compare bets.

Good luck if you continue.

[Chrome Prince]

Ginger Princess

[Grand Armee]

Cheers.

[AngryPixie]

The new flash player is only a second or two.

Kate's Gift in 4.1 out 8.4

[Grand Armee]

I'm Merlin's Magic in 2.82 out 5.0

[Grand Armee]

Sh*t - already out of that, race hasn't started.

[Grand Armee]

This horse is $8.0 to back now.... what's happening, do you guys know?

[Grand Armee]

My God - it's now 2.92 again... wtf is going on? I'm not listening to Will Hill online or anything, just playing blind.

[AngryPixie]

Sorry didn't notice but it was running 4th most of the race.

[Grand Armee]

Has blown right out - I assume it's about to be scratched.

[Grand Armee]

OK. Weird. I am laying Xila Fontenailles at $5.30, hoping to back at $8.50...

[AngryPixie]

Xila in 5.2 out 11

[AngryPixie]

Ok I'm out now. That's me for the night see ya

[Mark]

Rotten night shift, never clean up after themselves.
The 5th at Leicester..........already made a 106% book, nice start to the day.

[Grand Armee]

"Pengo's lay adventure" turned into "Grand Armee's mug punting" last night!

[pengo]

It sure did, but I'll be back on the weekend ;)

[pengo]

Ok couldn't help myself and I got some free time while at work:


BANK = 300
TOTAL LIABILITY IS TO NOT EXCEED BANK
WIN ONLY - LAY

Staw (AUS) 8th Jan - 14:30 R4 1600m Hcap

free the robber 2.1 (TABONLINE), 3.00 (BETFAIR)
STAKE 20
LIABILITY 60

*mad dugal 3.7 (TABONLINE), 4.2 (BETFAIR)
STAKE 30
LIABILITY 126

fall of rome 4.2 (TABONLINE), 5.7 (BETFAIR)
STAKE 20
LIABILITY 114

TOTAL LIABILITY 300

UPDATE: * TABONLINE now showing 4.8 and BETFAIR 3.80~.

[pengo]

free the robber 2.1 (TABONLINE), 3.00
STAKE 20
LIABILITY 60 - LOSING LAY
LOSS: 60

mad dugal 3.7 (TABONLINE), 4.2
STAKE 30
LIABILITY 126 - WINNING LAY
RETURN: 156

fall of rome 4.2 (TABONLINE), 5.7
STAKE 20
LIABILITY 114 - WINNING LAY
RETURN: 134

TOTAL LIABILITY 300
TOTAL RETURN 290
LOSS 10
----------

Such a small field, may have been better to only lay 2 instead of 3.

Nonetheless I wanted to see what would happen if I laid 3 with one being the favourite.

Tho I was expecting one of the 3 to being a losing lay, just to screw with my results.

[pengo]

Staw (AUS) 8th Jan - 15:05 R5 1600m Mdn

WIN only
LAY

BANK = 1000
TOTAL LIABILITY IS TO NOT EXCEED BANK

JAMAICAN KING 6.8-7.5 (TABONLINE), 9 (BETFAIR)
STAKE 50
LIABILITY 450
PROFIT/LOSS: TBD

*JOHAN'S LOVE 5.8-6.7 (TABONLINE), 5.5 (BETFAIR)
STAKE 100
LIABILITY 550
PROFIT/LOSS: TBD


TOTAL LIABILITY 1000
TOTAL RETURN TBD
PROFIT/LOSS TBD

* SHOWING LESS ON BETFAIR THAN TAB (VALUE?)

[pengo]

Staw (AUS) 8th Jan - 15:05 R5 1600m Mdn

WIN only
LAY

BANK = 1000
TOTAL LIABILITY IS TO NOT EXCEED BANK

JAMAICAN KING 6.8-7.5 (TABONLINE), 9 (BETFAIR)
STAKE 50
LIABILITY 450
WINNING LAY
RETURN: 500

*JOHAN'S LOVE 5.8-6.7 (TABONLINE), 5.5 (BETFAIR)
STAKE 100
LIABILITY 550
LOSING LAY
LOSS: -550

TOTAL LIABILITY 1000
TOTAL RETURN 500
PROFIT/LOSS: -500

LOL, good thing I'm not doing this for real :)

Maybe stick to pick only one horse, I seem to have better success.

[pengo]

BANK:500

Staw (AUS) 8th Jan - 15:42 R6 1600m CL2
4-FENCELINE
TAB ONLINE: 7.5
BET FAIR: 8
STAKE: 60
LIABILITY: 420

---

Only 1 favourite has come in out of the 5 races run today at Stawell. Maybe I should just pick one horse per race and that horse should be the short priced favourite?

2 & 6 seem to be the favourites this race.

[AngryPixie]

Just. You'd have been better off with your first pick.

[pengo]

LOL CLOSE RACE ahhaha

PHOTO!

Staw (AUS) 8th Jan - 15:42 R6 1600m CL2
4-FENCELINE
TAB ONLINE: 7.5
BET FAIR: 7
STAKE: 60
LIABILITY: 420
RETURN 480

START BANK: 500
END BANK: 560

[pengo]

Just. You'd have been better off with your first pick.

Thats always the way, go with the first pick! Was a favourite too.. and it didn't come in like the rest of the favourites for today.


Race7:
11-Catbird Kitty
TAB ONLINE: 5.7
BET FAIR: 5.5
STAKE: 100
LIABILITY: 550 (going for broke!).

START BANK: 560
END BANK: TBD

[King Cugat]

Get into it Pengo, thats the way son......

Can i ask 1 question? If you lose whats the last $10 in your account saved for. Most bet anything under 5% of bank youve strangely put up 98% of yours?
Why arent you buying an air conditioner Pengo?

[Grand Armee]

Wow.... Outlaying 98% of your bank, not even Grand Armee is THAT crazy.

[pengo]

Race7:
11-Catbird Kitty
TAB ONLINE: 5.7
BET FAIR: 5.5
STAKE: 100
LIABILITY: 550
WINNING LAY
RETURN 650

START BANK: 560
END BANK: 660

[pengo]

Get into it Pengo, thats the way son......

Can i ask 1 question? If you lose whats the last $10 in your account saved for. Most bet anything under 5% of bank youve strangely put up 98% of yours?
Why arent you buying an air conditioner Pengo?

Could be moving so don't want to have to lug that around!

[pengo]

Wow.... Outlaying 98% of your bank, not even Grand Armee is THAT crazy.

Its easy when its monopoly money.

[AngryPixie]

What for the last then Pengo?

[pengo]

Don't know don't have enough time, got sidetracked.. damn work!

Lets do
Bowtrice @ 10 on betfair.

[AngryPixie]

I've layed Bowtrice

[pengo]

great minds think alike.

Geez, jockey's fell!

Hope they are OK both jockey and horse!

A mate rekons to place bet on horse that have won at the distance & track, so far today its done OK.

[AngryPixie]

Nice to win but not like that. Sound's like a very nasty fall.

[King Cugat]

Pengo...im out!

I just cant help having that gut feeling that your from another site just having a crack with a million onlookers.

[crash]

I've layed Bowtrice

************, I backed it!

Wife picked up Bonny Cat at $9 win. Terrible falls. C. Pulls and another girl [Yendals wife I think] away in the ambulance unconscious. Hope their alright.

[AngryPixie]

Oh well. I'll let you catch up. I'm not working again till Friday ;) :D

[pengo]

Pengo...im out!

I just cant help having that gut feeling that your from another site just having a crack with a million onlookers.

Well the other forums I'm from would be Overclockers Australia but thats a computer forum :)

I don't mind the audience ! If I manage to make back the original bank of 1,000 I might try it for real. Still its showing its not like printing money thats for sure, but then again I haven't really worked out a system yet and just going based on price so I can simulate a match to simulate a result. I'm thinking about have my selection criteria be for a shortlist on candidates: Jockey is a Apprentice, TAB odds are between 5-11. Then take a look at their form and make a final determination.

[lomaca]

I haven't really worked out a system yet and just going based on price so I can simulate a match to simulate a result. I'm thinking about have my selection criteria be for a shortlist on candidates: Jockey is a Apprentice, TAB odds are between 5-11. Then take a look at their form and make a final determination.

Pengo!
I would not know betfair or lay betting if it bit me on the bum, so I am not giving you betting advice. What I can see here, is that people trying to help you and you are avoiding good advice at all costs.
Remember! if you don't take the free public school classes, you WILL have to take the very expensive course of experience! And that will hurt!
Good luck
PS see you on the comp forum. what's your nick? or just give a hint on that forum by mentioning something about horses!?

[pengo]

Pengo!
I would not know betfair or lay betting if it bit me on the bum, so I am not giving you betting advice. What I can see here, is that people trying to help you and you are avoiding good advice at all costs.
Remember! if you don't take the free public school classes, you WILL have to take the very expensive course of experience! And that will hurt!
Good luck
PS see you on the comp forum. what's your nick? or just give a hint on that forum by mentioning something about horses!?

Yeah I appreciate the advice, its all taken under consideration.

My nick on ocau is pengoz

[lomaca]

Yeah I appreciate the advice, its all taken under consideration.

My nick on ocau is pengoz

Sorry mate! with hindsight, why don't I keep my opinions to myself?
Nothing worth than a b... busybody.
Good luck.

[pengo]

If it looks like I'm not taking advice, its only coz I'm just having a play and trying different things.

I want to see if I can make the bank back by laying aggressively.

Next I'll try sticking to short odds favorites and so only risking a portion of the bank.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Pengo,
Heres an observation for laying very short priced Favs that one may like to check out.

I have noticed quite a number of short priced favs tend to fall over if they are carrying the same or less weight than last time.
In races 1100m+
Including odds-on shots.

Cheers.

[crash]

Hang in there Pengo, your free to ignore the coat-tuggers and urgers even if they are probably right in their opinions!

[pengo]

Don't know don't have enough time, got sidetracked.. damn work!

Lets do
Bowtrice @ 10 on betfair.

BETFAIR: 10.00
STAKE: 66
LIABILITY: 660
START BANK: 660
END BANK: 726
-

Above post just to know where I'm at for my bank.

Will keep my eye on the favorites as per your criteria Bhagwan. If the price is right on betfair for a lay I'll lay it.

[pengo]

Favorite, same weight or less than last time 1100+

Devonport Race 2
3. Cosmic Elf
Betfair 3.25
Stake 30
Liability 97.5

BANK: 726

[pengo]

Big Cruiser by a length! I love this, its great wanting a horse to beat yours ahhaha, god thats weird :P

Devonport Race 2
3. Cosmic Elf
Betfair 3.25
Stake 30
Liability 97.5
WINNING LAY
BANK: 756

Same criteria as previous post, but I don't like this race as its short on runners but anyway we'll do it! So we won't risk as much, only what we won from the last race.

Port Linc R1
1. Buster Haze
Betfair 2.45
Stake 12
Liability 29.4

BANK: 756.

[pengo]

Port Linc R1
1. Buster Haze
Betfair 2.45
Stake 12
Liability 29.4
LOSING LAY

BANK: 726.6

[pengo]

S'Coast Race 2

5. Raining Kings
Betfair 3.65
STAKE 50
LIABILITY 182.5
BANK 726.6
WINNING LAY
BANK 776.6

LOL I keep laying horses that lose by a nose ahhahahahahaha

[AngryPixie]

It's the one's that win by a nose I hate.

[pengo]

Lets go the fav.

Sandown R4
3. Spinning Lady
Betfair 2.5
STAKE 6
LIABILITY 15
BANK 776.6

[pengo]

Sandown R4
3. Spinning Lady
Betfair 2.5
STAKE 6
LIABILITY 15
BANK 776.6
WINNING LAY
BANK 782.6

[pengo]

Devonport R6
8. DARE WE DREAM
Betfair 4
STAKE 6
LIABILITY 24
BANK 782.6

[pengo]

Devonport R6
8. DARE WE DREAM
Betfair 4
STAKE 6
LIABILITY 24
WINNING LAY
BANK 788.6

lol at the horse named MayWynn on Tuesday, well it didn't win on wednesday!

[pengo]

2. Global Warming
Betfair 4.1
Stake 6
Liability 24.6

2. Scorched Earth
Betfair 6.2
Stake 6
Liability 37.2


Bank 788.6

[pengo]

2. Global Warming
Betfair 4.1
Stake 6
Liability 24.6
WINNING LAY

2. Scorched Earth
Betfair 6.2
Stake 6
Liability 37.2
WINNING LAY (had to put this one in when it jumped the barrier prematurely, no way it was gonna settle down intime and win)

Bank 800.6

[pengo]

PT LINC R5
1 GRAND PALAIS
Betfair 10.5
Stake 10
Liability 105.00


6 ACE OF GRACE
Betfair 8.6
Stake 10
Liability 86


8 Cozy Smytzer
Betfair 14
Stake 10
Liability 140

Bank 800.6

[pengo]

wow what a run by 5-ONE WILD SEA

PT LINC R5
1 GRAND PALAIS
Betfair 10.5
Stake 10
Liability 105.00

6 ACE OF GRACE
Betfair 8.6
Stake 10
Liability 86

8 Cozy Smytzer
Betfair 14
Stake 10
Liability 140


All winning lays, put in last 2 late (when they had problems at the barrier).

Bank 830.6

[pengo]

S'Coast R4
7 CA PLANE POUR MOI
Betfair 5.5
Stake 10
Liability 55

9. Miami Rose
Betfair 11
Stake 60
Liability 660

Bank 830.6

I'm going for making back the bank!!! Hope no 9 don't come in LOL. I'd be ok with 7 coming in as 9 covers it and I'll still be ahead.

[pengo]

LOL ******** AHAHAHAHAHHA

What the ******** happened in that race.

Good thing this is monopoly money.

[michaelg]

Hi, Pengo.

If I'm reading your Lay bets correctly, then your calculations may not be accurate and if so, it is doing an injustice to your results.

For example, today at Pt Lincoln race 5 - your post says you are staking $10 at a Lay price of $10.50 on Grand Palais and that the liability is $105. In your calcs your stake of $10 has not been deducted and therefore the true liability is only $95.

If you go to Betfair and input a stake of $10 on a Lay price of $10.50 you will see that the liability is $95.

Miami Rose at Sun Coast race 4 is unfortunately an accident. Most layers have a cut-off price and will not Lay over that certain price. As it paid double-figures on Unitab maybe its Betfair price would have eliminated it from being a selection?

Good luck.

[pengo]

S'Coast R4
7 CA PLANE POUR MOI
Betfair 5.5
Stake 10
Liability 55

9. Miami Rose
Betfair 11
Stake 60
Liability 660
LOSING LAY

Bank 115.6

[pengo]

Hi, Pengo.

If I'm reading your Lay bets correctly, then your calculations may not be accurate and if so, it is doing an injustice to your results.

For example, today at Pt Lincoln race 5 - your post says you are staking $10 at a Lay price of $10.50 on Grand Palais and that the liability is $105. In your calcs your stake of $10 has not been deducted and therefore the true liability is only $95.

If you go to Betfair and input a stake of $10 on a Lay price of $10.50 you will see that the liability is $95.

Good luck.

Oh yes you are right, i was just doing what would get removed from my account.

[pengo]

9. Sequinella
Betfair 4.6
Stake 25
Liability 90
LOSING LAY

Bank 26.6

Going after the short priced horses doesn't seem too good!

[michaelg]

If you had layed Grand Palais with real money of $10 and at the odds stated in your post, then only $95 would have been deducted from your account.

The formula is Stake X Odds, less the stake.

Your calcs on Sequinella are correct.

[pengo]

Totally destroyed on the last couple races haha

[AngryPixie]

Good try :(

You need an angle. You can't do it just on price in Australia.

[Chrome Prince]

Pengo, it is not the horses you are picking, it is the odds and staking.

You have had your biggest lay at 29% over TAB odds plus commission that's 34% over TAB odds.

You can go up and down the market picking shorties, mid-priced, longshots, horses you don't think will win etc. but the reality is that your staking is waiting for disaster and your odds ensure you'll lose.

Would you back an even money favourite at $1.54 on Betfair when it's $2.00 with the TAB, essentially this is what you are doing.

[pengo]

Good try :(

You need an angle. You can't do it just on price in Australia.

I'm thinking maidens, make a shortlist of horses that have run 8 or more races and not placed. They will be longshots but the idea is that if they were going to do anything they would have done so by now.

[pengo]

Pengo, it is not the horses you are picking, it is the odds and staking.



Of course, but if you select a horse that wins, its got nothing to do with staking or odds.. You'll still lose regardless what odds or stakes you put...

All the odds or staking does is limit the potential losses on the bank. I was going for broke, and I got what I was going for. Plus its just monopoly money :) And I was going on price, putting my faith in the market doing the work for me. So price would tell me what isn't likely to win.

If I limited my liabilities to no more than 5% of the bank, I'd still be alive, but again I was going for broke and trying to make back the bank quickly.

My next exercise will be maidens, and I will limit the bank to about 20% this time.

[AngryPixie]

I'm thinking maidens, make a shortlist of horses that have run 8 or more races and not placed. They will be longshots but the idea is that if they were going to do anything they would have done so by now.

Well that's a start. What you really want is what I call the "hopeful" horses. Those that have a little bit of support in a race where alot of the money has gone elsewhere. You'll find that many of these are "not quite right". They're generally around the $5-$11 mark. Remember only one other horse needs to beat them.

Really stay away from the longies. I wasn't going to work today but have. I've layed 18 for 2 accidents. My average matched price is $6.61. I've only layed one in double figures, and that was at my max of $11.00. It lost. There's plenty of chances below $10. You just need to do a bit of work to find them.

[pengo]

Would u say FRENCH FRIARS is a hopeful?

[Chrome Prince]

But that's what I'm trying to explain, you are looking at the fact that you lost one bet, not why you lost most of your hypothetical bank.

Pengo, at least try this if you're going to take any old odds....

Lay the horse for a win for one unit.
Back the horse for the place for two units.

That horse wins and you lose around 7 units instead of 11 units
That horse just runs a place you lose 4 units
That horse runs unplaced you win one unit.

Maximum win 1 unit
Maximum loss 7 units.

$7.00 ;) TAB $8.50 :eek:

[AngryPixie]

Would u say FRENCH FRIARS is a hopeful?

Maybe but it's at Ascot. I can't lay in WA so I've not bothered to look.

[AngryPixie]

Something like Vain Ali or Stormbay Lilly in the next at Devenport. But you'll struggle to get a price. One will win now just wait, but not with my money at thet price. :)

Bad example

What about Blue Sky at Randwick. Again I'm finished for the day but I would have layed it.

[pengo]

..


I would have still lost most of my bank at either TAB or BF odds for the lay.

I know why I lost most of the bank; again I was laying it based on the TAB odds being that its was unlikely to win. So I would take the BF lay odds so I could get the lay matched. That was the "angle" I was taking on coming towards my selections. It was assumed that the market would know better than me in selecting winners. I wasn't limiting the bank and was staking high amounts to win back the bank "at all costs".

Its a good exercise in not doing that tho, as something happened in that race that totally messed with the field. So its a good example for limiting ones liability when laying (for the unforeseen).

Don't get me wrong, if I was actually risking my own dosh, I would be limiting my liabilty and protecting my bank thats for sure.

What I'm trying to work out, is how reckless can I be, and how much effort do I need to invest for success.

[pengo]

Something like Vain Ali or Stormbay Lilly in the next at Devenport. But you'll struggle to get a price. One will win now just wait, but not with my money at thet price. :)

A Stormbay won but not yours :D

What makes them "a hopeful" is it based on form? Something showing a place in the last 3 starts with an apprentice onboard?

[AngryPixie]

Duchess Danewin at Port Lincon maybe.

[AngryPixie]

A Stormbay won but not yours :D

What makes them "a hopeful" is it based on form? Something showing a place in the last 3 starts with an apprentice onboard?

They're supported but not too heavily. Actually these have been crappy examples as you'd have only got on the Randwick one. That's another thing to mention. I've usually twice as many selections than I manage to lay.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Chrome ,
Can you give us an example on how that idea of win lay x 1 & place bet x 2 would work using say a $6 div?

For example.
The last bit that was mentioned , where 1 unit profit would be made, has me a little confused , I would have thought it would have resulted in a 1 unit loss because 2 units would have been lost on the place back component of the bet & gained 1 unit on the win lay component, resulting in a 1 unit loss if the horse finished unplaced.

One the other hand , at 3 units per race
If the 2 units were a place lay ($2.50 = 1.5/1) & a 1 unit win lay ($6.00=5/1) , all unplaced .
= +3 units profit .

If the lay place bet x 2 finished 2nd or 3rd (at $2.50 x 2) & win lay bet x 1 but did not win. ($5-3units...)
= -2 units.

If lay place bet x 2 finished 1st,2nd or 3rd($2.50) &
win lay bet x 1 (at $6.00) came 1st. (5+6=11-3...)
= -8 units

If out of 100 races x 3units per race, 15% should win instead of lose & 30% get placed
240-300= +60 Profit.

For this to work, we are assuming that a horses price runs slightly less to its theoretical chance of winning & in this price range of $6.00win & $2.50plc (or less)
In this case, 1 divided by $6 = 16.7% theoretical chance.
Field sizes of 12+ makes this idea work best.

Total = +60 profit from every 100 races = 20% POT

Cheers.

[Chrome Prince]

Hi Chrome ,
Can you give us an example on how that idea of win lay x 1 & place bet x 2 would work using say a $6 div?

For example.
The last bit that was mentioned , where 1 unit profit would be made, has me a little confused , I would have thought it would have resulted in a 1 unit loss because 2 units would have been lost on the place back component of the bet & gained 1 unit on the win lay component, resulting in a 1 unit loss if the horse finished unplaced.

One the other hand , at 3 units per race
If the 2 units were a place lay ($2.50 = 1.5/1) & a 1 unit win lay ($6.00=5/1) , all unplaced .
= +3 units profit .

If the lay place bet x 2 finished 2nd or 3rd (at $2.50 x 2) & win lay bet x 1 but did not win. ($5-3units...)
= -2 units.

If lay place bet x 2 finished 1st,2nd or 3rd($2.50) &
win lay bet x 1 (at $6.00) came 1st. (5+6=11-3...)
= -8 units

If out of 100 races x 3units per race, 15% should win instead of lose & 30% get placed
240-300= +60 Profit.

For this to work, we are assuming that a horses price runs slightly less to its theoretical chance of winning & in this price range of $6.00win & $2.50plc (or less)
In this case, 1 divided by $6 = 16.7% theoretical chance.
Field sizes of 12+ makes this idea work best.

Total = +60 profit from every 100 races = 20% POT

Cheers.

Yes, I'm quite tired, sorry I previously had it backwards, it's back it to win x 1 lay it to place x2 - oops.

Damn thyroid problems.

[Bhagwan]

Hi Pengo,
Heres something you may like to check out.
.Target the 3rd fav in each race. 1 min till jump
.Must have a win SR of 10% & less.
.Preferably 10+ career starts.
.Place Lay bet this selection.

These have an average div of $2.00-2.90 when lay betting to place.
Try & keep within this range.
The SR for running unplaced, is approx 67%
One could now afford to do some progressional betting in this lower price range to pull back any losses.

Heres one idea ...
Keep going up the ladder
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 ect. until in front.

Cheers.

[pengo]

Thanks, I don't have the time to invest on determining the selections for the above during the week so will use it on the weekend.

For today, time to try the maidens.


Cranbourne Race 1
4. Rype
Bank 100
Betfair 19
STAKE 5
LIABILITY 90
Winning

BANK 105

[pengo]

Bank 105

Penola R1
5 Musty Springs
Betfair 7
Stake 14
Liability 84

[King Cugat]

Leaves you with $25. You cant even buy Old Kent Road.

I just cant help having that gut feeling that your from another site just having a crack with a million onlookers.<!-- / message -->
Onlookers >> was refering to your mates on another site...watching you gee this site up. Im still sure thats the case.

[pengo]

Leaves you with $25.

Incorrect, but thanks for playing.

Bank 105

Penola R1
5 Musty Springs
Betfair 7
Stake 14
Liability 84

LOSING LAY

BANK 21

What I was doing to begin with and backing the long shots, seemed to have been the most successful for me!

[AngryPixie]

Onlookers >> was refering to your mates on another site...watching you gee this site up. Im still sure thats the case.

So... are you going to fill us in?

[AngryPixie]

Town 2 #5 #13

[pengo]

Lets try one of the long shots!

Cranbourne R3
2. Jacovian
Betfair 60
Stake 16
Liability 944
Bank 1000

Winning lay

Bank 1016

[pengo]

Gosford R3
11. Murray Dancer
Betfair 130
Stake 7.5
Liability 967.5
Bank 1016

Will be interesting to see how long it takes to break the bank :)

[AngryPixie]

GOSF-03 6 Stand In

I'm due an accident though :(

[pengo]

Gosford R3
11. Murray Dancer
Betfair 130
Stake 7.5
Liability 967.5
Bank 1016

Will be interesting to see how long it takes to break the bank :)

Winning lay
Bank: 1023.5

[pengo]

GOSF-03 6 Stand In

I'm due an accident though :(

Close, nice trifecta payout too.

T'ville R3
9. County Wilkes
Betfair 55
Stake 18
Liability 972
Bank 1023.5

[AngryPixie]

Last for the day. This could be the accident.

TOWN-03 7 Marauding Flyer

[Grand Armee]

Pengo did your bank just go from 25 up to 1000, or did you start afresh?

[pengo]

Pengo did your bank just go from 25 up to 1000, or did you start afresh?

Whenever I start a new selection system, I start afresh.

[AngryPixie]

Add Cindy's Score as well

[King Cugat]

Pengo did your bank just go from 25 up to 1000, or did you start afresh?Grand...i dont think anything is real in Pengo Land. I wouldnt let him be banker though, perhaps in charge of shuffling the Chance cards might be better. i ddi notice a few of the orange coloured ones sneek in there too.

[pengo]

Cranbourne R4

8. Stage Theatre
Betfair 55
Stake 18
Liability 972
Bank 1041.5

[pengo]

Cranbourne R4

8. Stage Theatre
Betfair 55
Stake 18
Liability 972
Bank 1041.5

Winning Lay

Bank 1059

Gosford R4

5. Putheron
Betfair 34
Stake 31
Liability 1023

[Grand Armee]

Grand...i dont think anything is real in Pengo Land. I wouldnt let him be banker though, perhaps in charge of shuffling the Chance cards might be better. i ddi notice a few of the orange coloured ones sneek in there too.
I'll swap you Park Lane for all your railways and utilities, but I don't have Mayfair!

[King Cugat]

mmmmmm...always considered that pair to be the game breaker.....lay the scenario out here if i take Park Lane off you.....

1. Is Mayfair still in the pack?
2. has precedent been set, as in, do we get to start again after this game?:) if i dont get Mayfair from the pack

[Grand Armee]

mmmmmm...always considered that pair to be the game breaker.....lay the scenario out here if i take Park Lane off you.....

1. Is Mayfair still in the pack?
2. has precedent been set, as in, do we get to start again after this game?:) if i dont get Mayfair from the pack
Mayfair is up for grabs but you're currently in jail without a get out free card, and 4 other players are within a roll of it, so you may struggle. We start again when there is only one left standing...

[pengo]

Bank 1059

Gosford R4

5. Putheron
Betfair 34
Stake 31
Liability 1023

Winning lay

Bank 1090

Penola R4
6 MEZAIRE
Betfair 40
Stake 26
Liability 1014

[King Cugat]

how many more double free rolls until i get out? Would you consider taking the utilities with the provision i pay you 5x the dice total every time i land on them?

[Grand Armee]

Two more rolls till you're out.

No I don't really want the utilities, it's the Railways I am really after, you can keep the Utilities and I'll pay you double on them if you give me the Railways and pay me double on them, and you get Park Lane.

[King Cugat]

i knew you wouldnt take ththe utilities. Had to bring you down in what you think my expectations are out of this deal.

Where are you on the board. With the law of averages & taking into account i need 2 more rolls or a double whats the % chance that you can get to Mayfair before me?

[Grand Armee]

I am Free Parking....

[King Cugat]

No

I need the game to keep going to see who gets Mayfair. Theres a 75% chance it wont be you and the game will continue negatively. << This is in my favour whilst i carry the railways and cop the x4 rentals sucking the $$$ out of you guys until a deal will be done and whoever gets the Blues wont be able to afford housing.

No wheres the dice...it my roll.:)

[Grand Armee]

Too late!! Pengo just landed on Mayfair!!

He's crazy though, he'll swap it for Northumberland Avenue if his lays are anything to go by :P

[King Cugat]

hehehehe...nice game Grand.:)

[pengo]

Winning lay

Bank 1090

Penola R4
6 MEZAIRE
Betfair 40
Stake 26
Liability 1014

Finally the race has run!

Winning Lay.

Bank 1116

Well I'm done for the day, longshot system seems good but only if I can bet at least 25 to try and build the bank up quick enough.